Earth Day Draft Thoughts

Happy Earth Day! Wait, you didn’t know it was Earth Day? It’s been around for 40 years, supposedly and it sure seems like it is officially an overblown and meaningless “holiday” like “Sweetest Day” or “Patriots’ Day” in Boston. Are you or anyone you know doing anything different today than any other day? The whole “going green” thing seems like a way for people to quiet the loudest whining environmentalists when nothing has drastically changed. I haven't seen any studies recently about the ozone layer - is that still an issue? Has the hole gotten bigger or have we solved that problem? Or was that all just a bunch of crap to make a point politically?

With the draft starting tonight, here are a handful of predictions for what I think will or will not happen tonight:

- The Redskins will draft and offensive lineman. Mike Shannahan will want to draft a quarterback with every fiber of his soul, but he has to be smart enough to know that the trade for Donovan McNabb can only be successful if he is upright more often than he isn’t. Wouldn’t it make sense to trade down to around #13 and look at a guy like Dez Bryant to give McNabb a receiving option that isn’t a midget like Santana Moss or a project like Malcolm Kelly?

- The 49ers should draft Jimmy Clausen. They have two picks at #13 and #17, so they have the ability to get a quarterback that can be the face of the franchise and make a great team with Vernon Davis and Michaeel Crabtree. Alex Smith is not the long-term answer for a team with enough talent to win the NFC West this season. They have a talented defense and a solid core of guys at the skill position except at quarterback. Wouldn’t it make sense to get a guy who can utilize those weapons?

- If the Packers do anything other than draft an offensive lineman, the fans will revolt. Ted Thompson went against everything he’s ever done last year by trading up to get Clay Matthews, and it was the best move he’s ever made. So if he needs to trade up again to get one of the top offensive linemen that Thompson loves (Maurkice Pouncey, Bryan Baluga and Anthony Davis – according to Bob McGinn), then he should absolutely make that move. The Packers have the right pieces in place other than guys to protect Aaron Rodgers which would allow him to make a run at the MVP. He’s already making MVP moves off the field, as word has it he’s dating the lead singer from Lady Antebelum.

- Ben Roethlisberger will still be a Steeler after Round 1 tonight, but there is a better chance that he gets traded tonight than any other time. Let’s say that for some reason Colt McCoy and maybe even Jimmy Clausen slide all the way out of round one. If you’re the Steelers, don’t you think they’re calling all of those teams that have picks in the low 30’s and offering Big Ben for a chance to draft Clausen or possibly McCoy? And if you’re a team like Cleveland at #38, Oakland at #39, Buffalo at #41, or especially Denver which holds #43 & #45, wouldn’t you give up that pick for a proven quarterback, even with his off the field baggage? Seems like a great deal for the Broncos to make and Roethlisberger is a tremendous upgrade over their own partying quarterback, Kyle Orton.

- Tim Tebow will still be available tonight. There has been an increase of chatter that some team will fall in love with him and either draft him late in round one or trade back into the late first round to get a shot at him. I just can’t see it. Why? The salary structure is still pretty high even for a late round pick, so you would be paying Tebow a pretty healthy salary while he learns the game and is not contributing to your team. I just don’t see it at all. I think he is a good pick sometime around the late 2nd or 3rd rounds, but not in the first round.

- Mel Kiper will take a swing at Todd McShay during the telecast. Okay, that’s unlikely to happen, but it would make for great television. I like the debates between Kiper and McShay because they actually seem to like and respect each other and understand that they will have differing opinions on players. It is unlike the pathetic skits on SportsCenter in the past when Sean Salisbury and John Clayton would debate topics and it was obvious that they truly disliked each other. They couldn’t help but make personal attacks on each other, and I was always half expecting Clayton to end all discussion by telling Salisbury he has something on his phone he wants to show him.

Breaking Down the QB Prospects

As I mentioned yesterday, I am not the type to do a mock draft post. There are too many variables, too many trades and too many linemen that all I would be doing is aggregating the mock drafts I’ve seen on other more informed sites and then guessing to fill in the blanks. Do we really know what the Redskins are going to do with the 4th pick? And there is a pretty good chance that what Kansas City does at #5 could change dramatically based on what the Skins do ahead of them or if they get a godfather offer from Cleveland at #7, etc. It’s not worth the time or effort. I’m all about being efficient. Well, I’m also all about a good beer, a close sports game and pictures of Carrie Underwood – but you already knew that.

Yet I remain extremely intrigued by the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft, especially after watching Jon Gruden dissect them. So with the caveat that I don’t have access to game film, I have only seen each guy play a handful of times, and I’ve seen the Gruden special and the SportsCenter highlights, here are my thoughts on the top quarterback prospects:

Sam Bradford
Appears to be a very cerebral quarterback with the ability to correctly read a defense and throw an extremely accurate ball. Obviously in all the meetings and pro days, you can’t knock him down on his shoulder to make sure he’ll get up. But he looks noticeably bigger now than he did during the season (he said he’s gained 15-20 pounds of muscle) and he’s going to need it. He doesn’t seem to have a “commanding presence” which could be a concern for his leadership ability when he has to get in the huddle with guys 10 years older than him and command their respect. Matt Ryan had that confidence and swagger, and I’m not sure Bradford does.

Overall Prediction/Guess: A solid pro to build your team around and worth the #1 pick for the Rams who desperately need a QB and a face for the franchise – potentially a Kerry Collins clone. Not spectacular, but Collins has been in the league for 15 years, never led the league in passing yards but finished in the top 10 four times and has been a pretty good locker room guy. And if you exclude the record in Oakland during 2004-2005, he is 2 games over .500 as a starter. Obviously here’s to hoping Bradford doesn’t have the alcohol problem that plagued Collins.

Jimmy Clausen
Clausen looks smallish but has a strong arm and improved his accuracy considerably during his last season at Notre Dame. He definitely has the swagger and leadership qualities to play quarterback in the NFL, not the least of which is his toughness and ability to play through pain. That will gain him some locker room credibility. He also played in an NFL-style system, so the offense won’t surprise him. The speed and athleticism of NFL defenders will though, and his penchant for getting sloppy and making bad decisions will need to be curtailed. Seriously, look at the picture. It’s the definition of bad decision making. Then again, that might be the best available at Notre Dame.

Overall Prediction/Guess: Get ready for the rollercoaster ride whoever takes Clausen. I liken him to Jake Plummer, a good athlete with the will to win and an attitude to never give up. Plummer was maddening because he had the skills but continually turned the ball over, which is why he had 161 INTs to go with 161 TDs in his career. All that said, if he’s there at #13 when the 49ers are on the board, I think they should jump on him like Big Ben on an underager.

Colt McCoy
McCoy is the most intriguing quarterback in the draft from my perspective. He lacks the ideal NFL quarterback height, but he has a rocket for an arm and is stout and jacked. He also has the leadship, fire and personality to command the respect of his teammates. He’s a gamer and appears to be a student of the game, understanding the need for film study and the need to continually refine his game and dissect how the defense is making adjustments. He’s a proven winner and experienced at the college level, allowing him to mature and be ready for the next level.

Overall Prediction/Guess: McCoy has the potential to be the best quarterback in this draft. Gruden kept comparing him to Drew Brees, and I think that is a very good comparison. The other comparison that I see is Jeff Garcia – another undersized passer who was athletic and among the best quarterbacks in the league from 2000-2002.

Tim Tebow
Tebow is the hardest working quarterback and possibly overall player that will be in the draft. As much as I find fake the squeaky clean perfect all-American image, he does genuinely come across as a good kid. He has a ton of work to do if he wants to play quarterback, and has already completely remade his throwing motion. However the question is whether he will be able to maintain that new motion when Ray Lewis has a bead on him. In addition, he needs to learn to take a snap from under center, read the defense while backpedaling or run playaction. It is a lot to ask of a kid, but Tebow seems determined to make it happen.

Overall Prediction/Guess: I think Tebow will be a decent value pick…..in the 5th round. However, someone is going to overreach and take him in the late second or early 3rd round. He’s a project that will need 3 years on the bench before he’s ready to ever see the field, but could be effective at some point. I don’t actually see a good comparison for Tebow, but possibly the ceiling would be Mark Brunell. An athletic lefty that toiled on the bench for a while before getting his shot and being successful.

Tuesday Ramblings - Decisions by Two Jags

It is always enjoyable to listen to Herm remind you why you play the game. On Sunday there were two crucial coaching decisions made by Jags – one by the Coach of the Jags, and one by a world-class Jag-off, Bill Belichick. Both coaches decided to try to win the game by trying to play keep-away. However, I think the decision by Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio was actually riskier than the decision by Bill Belichick, yet no one is talking about it.

Today we listened to everyone and their brother dissecting the Patriots decision to go for it on 4th down from inside their own 30 yard line. The decision was blamed on Belichick’s ego, his fear of Peyton Manning, his lack of confidence in his own defense, or his overconfidence in Tom Brady. While I still don’t agree with the decision, I think it can be summed up that Belichick went for the jugular and for the win with the ball in the hands of his team. He was trying to keep the ball away from the Colts, because whether Manning drove his team 29 yards or 70+ yards, a TD would win the game for the Colts. He was following Herm’s message, but it blew up bigger than Oprah at an all-you-can-eat buffet. (Wait, is she fat or skinny now? Whatever, I’m too lazy to look, and either way, in another 6 weeks, she’ll be fat again, or skinny. Whatever……)

That got me thinking about the play at the end of the Jaguars-Jets game at the Meadowlands, when Maurice Jones-Drew took a knee at the 1 yard line instead of scoring a touchdown with under 2 minutes left in the game. MJD has been praised as making an extremely smart play, and being unselfish and more concerned with winning the game than padding his own personal stats. By taking the knee, the Jags were able to run the clock down and kick the chip shot game-winning FG as time expired. However, I think it was an extremely risky call by Jack Del Rio and not nearly as intelligent as the media made it out to be.

When MJD took the knee, the Jaguars were LOSING the game. It was compared to the Brian Westbrook play in 2007 when Westbrook went down at the 1 against the Cowboys and allowed the Eagles to run out the clock. The difference? The Eagles were WINNING the game, 10-6 at the time, and they then knelt 3 times and the clock ran out, game over. The Jaguars left themselves with the need to make a field goal to win the game. Now I get that the odds of missing a chip shot field goal are about as high as the chances of Blake Lively not wearing a shirt to show off her two best friends (or maybe they’re our best friends? Either way, here is an article about the friends with a slideshow.). Yet, there still is a chance of a botched snap, a bad hold, a gust of wind, a false start, a missed block, etc. or something disastrous that causes a miss. And if any of those disasters happen, the Jaguars would have LOST the game. Remember Tony Romo fumbling the snap in the playoffs against the Seahawks? Or Gary Anderson, who hadn’t missed a FG or extra point all season, shanking the kick in the 1998 NFC Championship? Strange and crazy crap happens in football, and Del Rio chose to play keep away from the Jets, and risked losing the game. And that doesn’t even take into account the fact that if MJD scores the TD, the Jets would have been down 6 and have a rookie quarterback, not Peyton Manning, who would have been trying to drive his team down field for a touchdown. And if the Jags convert the 2 point conversion, they would have locked in a win or OT even if the Jets drove down and scored.

I’m a fan of intelligent football, but I think the general media has missed the boat on this one. It was not intelligent, it was risky. The biggest difference between the Del Rio and the Belichick decisions? One worked and one didn’t. Can you imagine the backlash if the Jags would have missed the kick? Del Rio would have already cleared out his office and would be calling Eric Mangini to save him a place in line at the unemployment office. Both calls were bad decisions by the coaches, but when it works, you’re a genius, when it doesn’t, you’re a jag. Or in this case, when it works, you're a Jag and when it doesn't, you're a Patriot.

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Could the Browns be any worse? They have scored 5 TDs in their 9 games. They are an embarrassment to the league, and I have no idea how they can keep Mangini around next year. And now, their only legit offensive weapon, Josh Cribbs was taken to the hospital after the game in an ambulance. Can Browns fans stomach drafting another Notre Dame quarterback (Jimmy Clausen) with the first pick in the draft? Remember when the Browns were competitive and John "Mr. Ed" Elway used to rip their hearts out or Ernest Byner would fumble? It's sad that those were the days of glory and they seem tremendously better than the current situation.

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Allen Iverson and the Grizzlies came to a “mutual agreement” to put Iverson on waivers and allow him to go sign with another team. I really hope that agreement was “you will be getting $0 from the Grizzlies and will refund any and all money already paid to you by the Grizzlies.”

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ESPN is in the middle of a 24-hour college basketball marathon that included a game in Jersey City that started at 6:00 am. There is your proof that schools will do anything for the right pay day. There is nothing to be gained for the coaches, players, or the fans by playing at that time. So the only reason to consider it is the payday for the athletic program. I’m not saying I’m against it, because what other time would anyone watch Monmouth? Other than when you're trying to put on SportsCenter and you're strangely amused why there is basketball on TV. I’m just saying I hope the schools are honest about why they did it.

NFL Power Rankings after Week 5

Before I get to this week’s rankings it’s time for another quick story – I guess there is a new way to go grocery shopping that I haven’t been aware of. I’m at the grocery store, just grabbing a couple quick things for dinner. As I make my way to the check-out counter, there is a cart with milk and a box of cereal waiting in line. Since the line is not long, and there is no one within sight of the cart, I move past it and start to put my 5-6 items on the conveyor belt. As the check out lady is about to start scanning my items, the owner of the mystery cart comes back. She is a husky lady with ratty hair and wearing a moo-moo. She also has her arms overflowing with groceries – with more than a dozen things in her arms. She gives me a dirty look and a huff-and-puff for skipping past her cart. To which I just glance back at her and say “I didn’t know that’s how we shop now. Put the cart in line and then go get your groceries and come to the front of the line whenever we’re done.” Sorry lady, you are the toolbox of the week.

While I generally think Gregg Doyle is typically as intelligent as that lady at the grocery store, this article on Jimmy Clausen makes a few good points. Given the injuries that the top QBs have suffered, I think he has to be among the leaders along with Tebow and McCoy. And he might be the top pro-ready QB available.

On to the rankings, and since last week I went with 1991 songs, I decided to fast forward a decade to 2001 for this week. In 2001, the Ravens defeated the Giants for the Super Bowl title, Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman separated and Miller Park opened in Milwaukee. So on to the rankings……..

(1) Giants (last week: 1) – “Ride Wit Me” by Nelly
The Giants continue to roll in a game over the Raiders that Antonio Pierce said felt like an exhibition game. Eli looked fine only having to play half the game and got some extra rest for his heel. Just imagine if Brandon Jacobs gets on track.

(2) Colts (2) – “Family Affair” by Mary J. Blige
Ho-hum, another week, another dominating performance by Peyton. So brother Peyton and the Colts are comfortable here as the best team in the AFC and #2 in the league.

(3) Saints (3) – “Pop” N’Sync
Right now, I’m pretty sure Drew Brees and Jeremy Shockey could get as much ass as the boy bands in the late 90’s and early 2000’s. Looking at that picture - how did these guys score chicks? The Saints are rolling with offense through the air and on the ground and a playmaking defense. This week they have a chance to claim the top spot when the host the Giants.

(4) Vikings (4) – “All Or Nothing” by O-Town
This is pretty much the story for the VIkes this year – if they don’t win it all, then the Brett Favre experiment wasn’t worth it. And Brett has put that pressure on himself by claiming this is the most talented team he has ever been a part of.

(5) Broncos (10) – “I’m Real” by Jennifer Lopez featuring Ja Rule
After McDaniels and the Broncos took care of Belichick and the Patriots in Denver, not only did we get one of the best fist-pumping exhibitions in years, but I am now a believer. We’ll see if the Broncos fade into oblivion as fast as Ja Rule.

(6) Falcons (9) – “Stronger” by Britney Spears
With their beat-down of the 49ers in San Francisco, they proved that they were stronger after their bye week and their hiccup against the Pats was not a red flag. Big game against the Bears this week, so let’s hope Matt Ryan doesn’t turn into the crazy Britney and shave his head and marry some weird high school friend. In 2001, Britney was still a hit, still dating Justin Timberlake and still among the hottest women out there.

(7) Eagles (11) – “I’m Like a Bird” by Nelly Furtado
The Eagles are like a bird because they are flying high right now. With McNabb back, they look dangerous. However, there still is that lingering issue with Michael Vick in the background and how much he should be used. Right now his contribution has been hung like a bird – not his physical stature, but his contribution has been extremely small and meaningless – and when I first heard this song, I thought she said “hung like a bird” – yeah, I know. It makes less than no sense.

(8) Bengals (15) – “Hanging By a Moment” by Lifehouse
The Cardiac Kids continue to squeak out close games, and have now beaten their two toughest competitors for the division title, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. And who is that guy in Cedric Benson’s uniform? So let’s see, Benson is on a 4-1 team and Kyle Orton is 5-0? And they couldn’t win in Chicago? Maybe Chicago is the problem!?!?

(9) Jets (8) – “Stutter” by Joe featuring Mystikal
After getting off to a brash, trash-talking, 3-0 start, the Jets have stuttered by losing 2 straight, including having the Dolphins march down the field on that vaulted defense to win the game. Signs of cracks in the foundation or just a hiccup? I believe the defense is good, and the addition of Braylon Edwards will be huge contribution for Mark Sanchez.

(10) Bears (12) – “Hero” by Enrique Iglasias
Coming off their bye, the Bears face a tough test against the Falcons. But if Cutler continues to play smart , he has the potential to be the biggest hero in the Windy City.

(11) Patriots (5) – “If You’re Gone” by Matchbox Twenty
Fitting because if Matt Light is out for any amount of time, it has a huge effect on the Patriots. Brady is just starting to get comfortable with his protection and standing in the pocket, and losing one of his longer-tenured linemen is a serious blow to that comfort level. And Perfect Tommy played poorly against Denver, particularly hitting Welker in the ankle when he was open on a crucial drive in the 4th quarter.

(12) Ravens (6) – “Smooth Criminal” by Alien Ant Farm
Let’s see, Ray Lewis is a smooth criminal because he got away with (allegedly) being involved in a stabbing? Or because Ray Lewis is the remix/improvement of Lawrence Taylor, much like this song was the remix/improvement of Michael Jackson? Either way, the Ravens are reeling and blaming the referees rather than looking in the mirror.

(13) Steelers (13)– “It’s Been Awhile” by Staind
It’s been awhile since the Steelers won the Super Bowl, and it’s been awhile since the Steelers had a dominating running game. They have the talent to win games, but have not been as dominating as expected.

(14) 49ers (7)– “Fallin’” by Alicia Keys
For an up and coming team like the 49ers, I suppose there are going to be some minor setbacks along the way. Getting absolutely housed by the Falcons at home qualifies as one of those setbacks.

(15) Packers (16) – “Jaded” by Aerosmith
Probably a week late for this song after getting bent over by Brett Favre. Hopefully the bye week provided the team some time to get over the Vikings game, and shore up their offensive line troubles. They added Mark Tauscher back, so hopefully that helps.

(16) Chargers (14) – “The Space Between” by Dave Matthews
This is the last of the real teams, and the space between them and everyone after this point is considerable. The Chargers have offensive firepower but there are issues with their defense and Shawne Merriman continues to be a distraction.

(17) Cowboys (19) – “More Than That” by the Backstreet Boys
The ‘Boys need to show more than that by needing overtime to beat the pathetic Chiefs. They might be the biggest fraud of the teams with a winning record. Speaking of frauds, so shoving someone is considered a brawl? I guess if you’re over 70, named Bernie Madoff and in prison, then yes.

(18) Dolphins (21) – “The Call” by the Backstreet Boys
A great call by the Dolphins to go with the Wildcat run to win the game against the Jets. And Chad Henne looks like he has the arm strength, intelligence and swagger to be successful in the NFL.

(19) Cardinals (17) – “Angel” by Shaggy
I think a guardian angel is the only way the Cards escape with that game against the Texans. Getting the pick-6 return and then a goalline stand to hang on for the win was extremely improbable for a team known for offense.

(20) Seahawks (23) – “Where the Party At” by Jagged Edge
If Matt Hasselbeck can stay healthy, there could be a party in Seattle. What a difference he makes, and with him, this team might be the most underrated team on this list. Kind of like January Jones, who can be very up and down in Mad Men – yet she can bring the heat when she’s on top of her game – like she does in GQ this month.

(21) Jaguars (20) – “Peaches & Cream” by 112
I guess it’s not all sweet times for Team Hyphen. I have absolutely no idea what they are or what to expect from them. None.

(22) Texans (18) – “Case of the Ex (Whatcha Gonna Do) Mya
Like Mya, they are a flash in the pan. They have a week when they look great, and then they disappear just as quickly.

(23) Lions – “Play” by Jennifer Lopez
I suppose I should have used a JLo song for the Dolphins since she is a part owner of the team now, but oh well. The Lions can play and manage to keep the games close, yet still haven’t developed the ability to finish and win games. As Colin Cowherd said “The difference between a playa and a player is that a player closes a whole bunch of 4’s but spills wine on himself and stutters when he’s around a 9 or a 10. A playa closes the deal with the 9s and 10s.” The Lions aren’t even quite to the player level.

(24) Panthers (24) – “Turn Off the Light” by Nelly Furtado
Barely squeaking out a win against the Redskins and having to come back from a 17-2 deficit, is another nail in the coffin for John Fox in Charlotte.

(25) Redskins (27) – “Let Me Blow Your Mind” by Eve with Gwen Stefani
Just a few more weeks, Mr. Zorn, then you’ll be free to get hired by ESPN as their 231st pro football analyst.

(26) Titans (25) – “When It’s Over” by Sugar Ray
The Kerry Collins Era is over. Or at least it should be. The Titans stink and have nothing left to play for. They barely even put up a fight against the Colts. Might as well hand the keys to Vince Young and see if he can keep it between the lines.

(27) Browns (25) – “In The End” by Linkin Park
So how bad is it in Cleveland? Brady Quinn now wants out, and who can blame him? If your coach is going to stay with a guy after going 2-17, what are the odds you’re going to play again? About as good as the odds of Donovan McNabb asking to be traded to the Rams if Rush Limbaugh becomes their owner.

(28) Bills (22) – “What Would You Do?” by City High
That question is directed to you, Ralph Wilson. Are you going to trade Terrell Owens? Is there anyone that wants him? If there is anyone willing to give you anything (Chicago? Back to SF?) I think you should take it since he’s on a 1-year contract, and your team is barely better than the UFL teams.

(29) Chiefs (29) – “You Make Me Sick” by Pink
This has to be how Scott Pioli is feeling after trading for Matt Cassell and seeing him play like a guy who never started in college or his first 4 years in the pros.

(30) Buccaneers (31) – “I Wanna Be Bad” by Willa Ford
Mission accomplished. You’re bad. Is Raheem Morris in danger of getting canned after one year? The only thing giving him a chance is that Josh Johnson doesn’t appear to be horrendous. But it might be the Tyler Thigpen situation – an athlete can make some plays on a terrible team and look better than the rest of the team.

(31) Raiders (30) – “Stuck In A Moment You Can’t Get Out Of” by U2
It keeps getting worse and more bizarre in Oakland. There’s really nothing to say about them other than they are lucky they already won a game this year, or they would be speeding towards 0-16. Instead they’re speeding towards 1-15.

(32) Rams (32) – “Ms. Jackson” – Outkast
I’m sorry Ms. Jackson, your son is on a terrible team that is likely not to win a game all year.