Degenerate Friday - Sweet 16 Part II

Yesterday I didn’t get a chance to get to the gym and in order to maintain this Adonis physique that I fuel with scotch, beer and wings, I decided to combine a workout with watching the games. I would do 10 push ups for every made three point shot during the games that were on television (meaning if they did a look in and showed a 3 pointer, it’s push up time). It started slowly with Syracuse turning the ball over more than they made shots, but unfortunately for me they turned it up in the second half. Combine that with the ridiculous 3-point bombs Xavier and Kansas State traded late in regulation and both overtimes, and I ended up doing 370 push ups last night. So if my typing becomes as clear as why Kei$ha uses a dollar sign in her name (or why she’s a pseudo-celebrity), it’s because I’ve lost feeling in my arms. At least I was able to get the two late games correct to end up 2-2 last night. And I’m especially happy to see Cornell head home after they finally cooled off from behind the arc and faced an athletic team that could switch on screens (something Wisconsin and Temple could not do because their bigs are not athletic enough to keep up with the Cornell guards). Anyway……on to the Friday games.

Game #1: #2 Ohio State (-4.5) vs. #6 Tennessee

The Volunteers are easy to root for because they have a lovable coach in Bruce Pearl, play an inordinate number of walk-ons, and have gotten better after dismissing one of their more talented players because he was a jag off. Scottie Hopson can fill it up from the outside and Wayne Chism is a tough match up inside if he is plugged in. Unfortunately for the Vols he gets frustrated too easily and disappears for long stretches. Against a well-rounded but thin Ohio State team, they can’t afford to allow the Buckeyes to come up for air. William Bufford will likely have the assignment of controlling Hopson and Dallas Lauderdale will try to slow Chism, though Lauderdale is way too slow to stop him on the perimeter. If Tennessee can stay hot from outside the arc, they have a chance to make a game of it, but if they have even an average game, the Buckeyes will be more than they can handle.

And we haven’t even mentioned Evan Turner, the best player in the game. Turner will face a difficult matchup against JP Prince because Prince is long and quick defensively. In a previous collumn I already compared Turner to Marissa Miller with a supporting cast of the rest of the Victoria Secret models. I’m going to stick with that theme and I guess that makes Bufford, Lighty and Jon Diebler the Miranda Kerr, Candice Swanepoel and Alessandra Ambrossio of the big dance. The Victoria’s Secret models are enough to distract Bruce Pearl and Vols, giving the Buckeyes the edge they need.

Gambler’s Delight: Ohio State (-4.5)

Game #2: #3 Baylor (-5) vs. #10 St. Mary’s

If a game is played Houston and no one pays attention, does it really happen? This is the most overlooked game of the sweet 16 because it pits an underdog from a small western conference against an upstart team from a big conference that doesn’t have the tradition of its big conference colleagues. Yet Omar Samhan has arguably been the most dominant player in the entire tournament during the first weekend for St. Mary’s and Baylor has quietly taken care of business all season. The Bears rank in the top 12 of the nation in field goal percentage, field goal percentage allowed, rebound margin, blocks per game and scoring margin. Pretty impressive stats for a team of mostly unknown players outside of the Big 12.

Baylor has the size inside with Ekpe Udoh and Josh Lomers to do battle with Samhan, something that neither Villanova or Richmond had. Baylor also has strong guards in Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn to compliment the inside game. Will that be enough to overtake the Australian sharpshooters of St. Mary’s? The Bears are like Talulah Riley - successful, well-rounded, yet it might just be the name that is holding them back from being an a-lister.

Gambler’s Delight: Baylor (-5)

Game #3: #5 Michigan State (-1) vs. #9 Northern Iowa

Everyone is jumping on the Northern Iowa bandwagon after they knocked off Kansas and Michigan State lost their best player to injury. Yet something tells me that the experience of Tom Izzo and Michigan State in the tournament gets more valuable as the tournament progresses. (Yes, Kansas had experience as well, but they had Bill Self) Northern Iowa returned home to be treated like rockstars and their coach Ben Jacobsen was given a well-deserved 10-year contract extension. All of that adds up to a little loss of focus and an Izzo team only needs a crack to force their way in the door.

I think Korie Lucious learned a valuable lesson when Kalen Lucas was out earlier in the year and I expect him to play much more in control than he did in his start against Illinois. I also expect the Michigan State guards to harass the Northern Iowa backcourt more than Kansas did and not allow as many open looks from beyond the arc. I really like the story of Northern Iowa, but in the end, the experience, poise and physical play of the Spartans will be too much for the Huskies, setting up an all-Big Ten Regional Final. When it comes down to it, I’d take George Clooney’s injured ex-girlfriend, Sarah Larson, over Miss Iowa.

Gambler’s Delight: Michigan State (-1)

Game #4: #1 Duke (-8.5) vs. #4 Purdue

This game matches up the team that everyone wants to get eliminated (Duke) against the team that everyone thought already would be eliminated (Purdue). Yet both teams continue to win and are just two wins away from the Final Four. Duke has many similarities to Jude Law because you hate him for having blown it with Sienna Miller the first time around, yet you have to admit the guy has talent and his movies draw you to the theatre and are successful over and over again. Duke is playing extremely well and has an experienced backcourt, solid shooting and Brian Zoubek has given them an inside presence they were missing. They have all of the ingredients to continue marching to Indy.

Purdue was among the teams to beat with Robbie Hummel and seems to have figured out how to play without him in wins over Siena and Texas A&M. The Boilermakers are a difficult matchup for Duke because they play physical stingy defense which can throw off the usually soft Duke squad (see their loss at Wisconsin early in the year). The Boilers also have the right personnel to match up, with Chris Kramer attached to Jon Scheyer’s hip pocket, E’Twaan Moore blanketing Kyle Singler and JaJuan Johnson able to match Zoubek. The Purdue defense will keep them in the game and make it close at the end, but expect Duke to pull out the straight up win.

Gambler’s Delight: Purdue (+8.5)
(take Duke to win straight up)

Saturday & Sunday Games:

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia

Expect the young Wildcats to complete their march to the Final Four in a game that may not be pretty on the eyes. West Virginia wants to ugly up the game the way Sarah Jessica Parker does to any show, movie or photo she appears in. Like a New Jersey frat guy in a spring break club, the Moutaineers prefer to grind it out ugly-style. Kentucky should be able to break down the Mountaineers offensively and stymy the WVU offense. John Wall is as fast as anyone I’ve ever seen with the basketball in his hand and is an automatic one-man fast break when he gets a rebound. Look for Kentucky to get to the Final Four.

#2 Kansas State vs. #5 Butler

I have been a hater of Butler ever since my first college basketball breakdown column. I still don’t really know what they do well. They didn’t shoot well against Syracuse, had too many turnovers, and allowed a poor playing Orange team to stay in the game too long. Yet they keep winning. Can they keep it up against K-State? No. Look for the Faces of Frank Martin to march on to Indianapolis behind the sharpshooting of Denis Clemente and Mos Def look-alike, Jacob Pullen. The unsung hero for the Wildcats has been the UConn transfer Curtis Kelly who displayed a great array of moves around the basket and the ability to face up and knock down a jumper against Xavier. He could be the difference maker against Butler.

Assuming I’m correct in picking Friday night’s games……..

#2 Ohio State vs. #5 Michigan State

Ohio State is too familiar with the Spartans to not be ready for their physical play and lack of offense without Kalen Lucas. Izzo’s motivation and schemes can only carry a gimped team so far. Buckeyes Victoria Secret fashion show rolls to the Final Four.

#1 Duke vs. #3 Baylor

Baylor has the athletes to keep it close, and will have the home court advantage with the game being played in Houston. Yet their lack of experience will prove too much to overcome and the Blue Devils make their reservations for Indy.

All-Americans Drive The Bandwagon

Quick thanks to Jimmy Traina at Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks for linking to the Part I & Part II of the top 25 breakdown the past couple days. The traffic is appreciated. For those of you new to the site, thanks for stopping by, and join as a follower through the site or on facebook through the links on the right panel.

Selection Sunday is only 4 days away, and we are keeping our focus on the tournament. As you know, I leave the whole bubble thing to guys who have much better access to a research department, and young data monkeys to pull it for them.

What does it take to win the tournament? There are a ton of theories on qualities a team should have including strong guard play (I’ve mentioned the Fat Point Guard Theory too many times already), an inside presence, tough defense and a good coach. Well, that’s all true, but pretty obvious. If a team has all of that, they would be expected to win. Another aspect is the presence of a star player with the ability to carry a team. There are plenty of examples of it, and in the past 10 years, 8 of the champions have had at least one player on the first or second team consensus All-American team. The only exceptions were in 2008 with Kansas and 2006 with Florida. Kansas had Brandon Rush make the third team from the NABC, and Mario Chalmers was AP honorable mention, while Florida had Joakim Noah who was AP honorable mention in 2006. (You can check out all the historical consensus All-Americans here)

Where does that lead us when we look at this year’s field? We only have the early picks for All-American teams from the Sporting News and Yahoo! Sports as our reference points, but since that’s what we have, that’s what we’ll work with. Using that small sample, the consensus first team guys are John Wall (Kentucky), Evan Turner (Ohio State), James Anderson (Oklahoma St) and Scottie Reynolds (Villanova). Greivis Vasquez (Maryland), DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky), Sherron Collins (Kansas) and Wesley Johnson (Syracuse) are also on either the first or second team for both sources.

That leaves us with the teams we’d expect to have the best chances of winning it all, Kentucky, Kansas, Syracuse, Ohio State and Villanova. James Anderson is in a role similar to former Kansas State All-American Michael Beasley, or Arizona State’s James Harden – a guy who can light up the scoreboard, but doesn’t have enough help around him to advance deep in the tournament. Vasquez is hoping to match former Maryland All-American Juan Dixon in leading the Terps to a title, but he is more like former Texas A&M All-American Acie Law who couldn’t get past the sweet 16.

More interesting is to look at who among the top seeds this eliminates from title contention. Duke, Purdue, West Virginia and Kansas State are in contention for #1 or #2 seeds and do not have the All-Americans to drive them to the title. Potential #3-#5 seeds who are eliminated include New Mexico, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Baylor. Again, it’s not a hard and fast rule, but the odds are definitely against one of these teams cutting down the nets at the end of the tournament.

And since many of you probably found the site through Hot Clicks and came back looking for more pictures of talent, I’ll just randomly throw up a picture of an a girl who wouldn’t make any consensus All-American teams, but she still manages to carry a show (Big Bang Theory) that otherwise is relying on the guy who played Russ in Christmas Vacation. Enjoy Kaley Cuoco.

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- U-S-A! U-S-A! The men’s hockey team upset the Canadian powerhouse last night, which is ironic since today is the 30th anniversary of the Miracle on Ice victory over Russia in the 1980 Olympics. This was nowhere near the level of upset and is still in pool play not a medal round, but it was an extremely entertaining game – especially for a guy like me that does not follow hockey (I have an issue with any sport that calls it’s jerseys “sweaters”). But the best part of a hockey game? The goal horn. Is there anything better than the loud fog horn that blasts after each and every goal in any hockey game? Just awesome.

Since I am not old enough to have any memories of the 1980 games, here is my first memorable hockey introduction. I grew up in Wisconsin, which is hockey crazy, yet despite my cousins playing the sport, I never was really exposed to the game. Fast forward to college, where Wisconsin has a rich hockey tradition. I somehow snag two prime seats at mid-ice for a game and manage to talk this girl who played on the University’s women’s club hockey team to go with me. Now I know what you’re thinking – that she was more interested in the cheerleaders than me – but I don’t think that was really the case. We settle into our seats and she’s attempting to explain the game to me when Dany Heatley (currently playing for Team Canada) scores for the Badgers. The place goes bezerk and that fog horn goes off. I’m into it, though still spinning trying to figure out how people can keep up with the puck. Suddenly the entire crowd starts pointing at the opposing goalie and chanting “Sieve!” - particularly this 75 year old grandmother sitting next to us who is screaming with extreme passion! That’s when I knew that hockey was something that must be in your blood and you either have it or you don’t. I didn’t. Grandma Sieve defintely did.

- NBC Hockey Announcer Doc Emrick is outstanding. He combines the emotions and pace of Gus Johnson, the intelligence of Jay Bilas and the personality of Steve Lavin all into one. There were times during the game where I wasn’t fully paying attention but simply the tone and pace of his voice made me focus back on the game.

- I have generally poo-poo’d all of the hype around John Wall at Kentucky this season. Without having seen him play very much, I tended to believe that that he was a very talented guy, lightning quick point guard with a solid shot, but he was immature and probably quite as good as advertised. Well, I’m starting to come around. Despite having an off shooting night, he was able to come up with a game saving blocked shot and knock down crucial free throws as Kentucky took down Vanderbilt on Saturday night. I still think Wall is not as polished as Derrick Rose was during his one year in college, and I think DeMarcus Cousins might be the best freshman on Kentucky this year, but I’m starting to believe that he will be a major contributor in the NBA next season.

- I am a big fan of match play golf relative to the low-score method that is used in most pro tournaments. There’s just something to going head to head for the 18 holes against the guy you’re battling and not having to worry about checking the scoreboard to see who is having a good round. It just brings a different attitude to the course – kind of like on The Bachelor when they make all the women live in the same house with no access to television or phones and a fully stocked liquor cabinet. Then we act surprised when the claws come out and the girls are not quite as they appear on the show………like this season’s villain, Vienna.

HATE

- Boner has gone missing!! Who knew that this would be the only time it would “family friendly” to type those words? Andrew Koenig, the guy who played Richard “Boner” Stabone on the 80’s sitcom Growing Pains went missing at the Olympics this weekend. He was supposed to return to LA and didn’t show up for his flight. Hard to believe that guy is 42 years old now, and another sad story of a childhood actor struggling when their career matures.

- Enough with the analyzing of Tiger’s speech last week. To no one’s surprise, there are people crying for more from him and others who think he nailed the apology. Obviously, those that profit from Tiger (like ESPN & the PGA) think he was great. Those that profit from continued drama (like the rag mags) think he was too staged and robotic. Who cares? Let the dude put his life back together.

- I have had enough of Bode Miller. I get that the guy is the “most decorated Olympic skiier” in US history – which is kind of like being the tallest midget. The guy can ski faster than anyone because he has no fear, which is impressive. But he is obvlivious to the honor of being an Olympian, and has no pride in skiing for his country. Listen to some of the past medal winners in the US or even some of the current winners – Brian Boitano, Dorothy Hamil, Lindsey Vonn or even Shaun White – they all speak about the pride and pressure they felt to win for their country. Not Bode – he measures success not by winning or posting a good time, but by the fun he has with a twelver in the hot tub. In his spoiled, deuchebag world, this is just another week partying on the slopes. He’s the John Mayer of skiing – he has one great talent, but is a complete asshat when he’s not doing that one talent.

- While Major League Baseball fans whine about the lack of a salary cap in baseball, the system that is currently in place in the NBA doesn’t seem to be working either. What kind of system rewards a team for blowing up a team for 2-3 years with no intentions of winning in hopes of clearing enough salary cap space to sign two super stars? That’s been the program the Knicks have been on for the past 3 years. Not a program of rebuilding with young stars that may take some years to develop. (That is the plan the Blazers and Thunder have used successfully) The Knicks have taken on terribly overpaid players with expiring contracts and have freed up the cap space to sign two of the big free agents from this year’s bumper crop of available stars.

Can they convince LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to both come to New York and rule Gotham as Batman & Batman? Tracy McGrady would play Robin to the two of them, and let’s not kid ourselves – a team of those 3 would easily be among the favorites to win the title. Part of me wants to see it happen just for the intrigue of it, but the rest of me doesn’t want to reward a franchise for being awful and taking money from their season ticket holders who were paying good money for an intentionally suboptimal product.