Breaking Down the NBA Finals

A quick story before getting to the NBA Finals breakdown……sitting outside having a beer at Barnacle Billy’s in Perkin’s Cove, Maine this past weekend, and the Maine version of Frank Sinatra in Vegas rolls in. He was in his mid-70’s, and looked like a pumpkin on stilts (as round as could be) with white hair and big sunglasses on. As he makes his way out to his table on the deck, every worker and regular at the place knows him, shakes his hand and they trade good natured barbs. The waitress asks about “the usual” and returns with a martini on the rocks in a plastic cup with a side glass of ice and the olives on top of the ice. The guy then proceeds to basically put on a one-man comedy show for anyone within earshot. My favorite story: “You know you get smarter when you drink, right? Well I get better at math when I drink, and last night at the bar I saw that Demi Moore and her younger boyfriend on television. So I quickly did the math and determined that if I want me a cougar like that, she’ll have to be 94 years old! A 94 year old might need oxygen to keep up with me. So maybe I should trade her in for two 47 year olds. But then I’d be the one who would need the oxygen!”

Anyway, this year’s Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals matchup has the potential to be one of the great finals matchups in a really long time. In addition to the whole traditional rivalry and supposed hatred between the fan bases (who cares? 90% of us don’t live in either city so we don’t care if Sully in Southie really hates the Lakers when he’s watching the game at O’Malley’s Pub). The reason is that these teams have a tremendous amount of star power, are playing extremely well, and have coaches that have been nearly flawless this post season. All of the starting 10 players, plus a couple of bench players (Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, etc) are legit So with that said, let’s break it down by position:

PG: Rajon Rondo (Celtics) vs. Derek Fisher (Lakers)
Rondo has cranked it up again in the playoffs proving that the most obvious trait he picked up from playing with the Big 3 was how to cruise through the regular season without too much effort. Fisher stood a chance defensively against the Suns and Steve Nash, but Rondo presents problems the same way Russell Westbrook did in the opening round against the Thunder. And since the Lakers don’t want to wear out Kobe chasing Ray Allen around on the defensive end, Kobe will likely draw Rondo. Fisher has been incredibly reliable during the playoffs this year and has the faith of Kobe and Phil Jackson to take big shots if Kobe is jammed up. Rondo has the potential to be the MVP over the entire series, but Fisher has the potential to hit a game winner or two. It’s a young, unpredictable star like Miley Cyrus that has the potential to drive you crazy but also can fill an arena. EDGE: Celtics

SG: Kobe Bryant (Lakers) vs. Ray Allen (Celtics)
While there is no comparing Bryant and Allen on an absolute level, each brings an amazing legacy as one of the best at their chosen aspect of the game. For Kobe, it’s being the best closer in the game today, and with this title, he has the potential to enter the discussion among the top 3-5 guards of all-time. Allen is one of the best pure shooters in the game and has evolved into as clutch and deadly in the post season as Reggie Miller was in his prime. Kobe wants to avenge the 2008 loss and move himself another notch closer to Jordan’s 6 titles. He is by far the best player in the series and has proven that even though everyone is so enamored with LeBron James and his next employer, Kobe is the best player in the game. If the Lakers win, it will be because Bryant carries them again.

Allen will likely be the key to the Celtics offense in this series. With Bryant slowing Rondo, Artest stopping Pierce (along with Pierce expending too much energy guarding Bryant), and Gasol shutting down Garnett, the offensive burden will fall to Allen. He is very capable of carrying that torch, but he has had a few cold streaks in the playoffs, including the early rounds of the 2008 playoffs. At the end of the day, Bryant is like Brooklyn Decker – it doesn’t matter if she’s doing cartwheels or posing by the ocean, the talent is undeniable. EDGE: Lakers

SF: Paul Pierce (Celtics) vs. Ron Artest (Lakers)
Ron Artest has truly become the modern day Dennis Rodman, without the cross-dressing. He is quirky, a unique personality, and even his own fans recoil in horror any time he lines up a shot outside of the paint. You have no idea what he’s going to do other than play complete lock down defense and rebound. And that is all the Lakers need him to do.

Paul Pierce was dubbed the greatest pure scorer in Celtics history by Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe and yet my brother and I had a discussion the other night whether he truly is a Hall of Famer. Is he underappreciated outside of Boston or overappreciated inside of Boston? Is he a compiler? He has had some great stretches in the playoffs where he has completely taken over a game, but he has never been a dominant scorer for an entire season (with the possible exception of 2001-02). His defense is solid, as evidenced by him slowing down LeBron just enough in 2008 and this year. But does he do any one thing great? His outside shot has improved over the years, but is far from reliable. His post game is adequate. He is an average rebounder. I like his game and believe that he WILL be a Hall of Famer, but the question is whether he should be a lock. While he is overdramaticIf he wins his second title this season, it does elevate him to another tier. EDGE: Celtics

PF: Pau Gasol (Lakers) vs. Kevin Garnett (Celtics)
Garnett is among the greatest power forwards to ever play the game (I rank him 3rd behind Tim Duncan and Elgin Baylor but ahead of Charles Barkley and Karl Malone), but he is running on fumes and one leg at this point of his career. He has adequately adjusted his game to be comfortable not being the focal point of the offense and remains the defensive and emotional leader of the team. He demands effort from his teammates and the Boston crowd with his primal screams or profanity-laced tirades. Yet he is overmatched against the younger Gasol who is just as comfortable defending Garnett’s mid range jumper or his post moves. Add in Gasol’s ability to pass and fill the lane on the break and he might be the second-best player in the series. If you were on the playground and choosing up teams, Bryant would be the first pick and Gasol would likely be next. (Followed by Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Odom, Artest, Perkins, Wallace and Fisher). Gasol is the hot foreign import that revitalized the team with the well-rounded game – kind of like the addition of Mandy Drury on CNBC. EDGE: Lakers

C: Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) vs. Andrew Bynum (Lakers)
Perkins is a very solid low-post defender and capable rebounder. Bynum is athletic and would present a tough matchup for Perkins if he were healthy. Yet he’s not healthy. Neither player will be the difference maker and it’s possible that Bynum won’t be able to play through the full series. Perkins also may miss time because even his coach expects him to pick up another technical which will put him at 7 during the playoffs which warrants a one-game suspension. This is like deciding whether Lilly is more important to How I Met Your Mother than Phoebe was to Friends – both have their moments, but the shows could carry on effectively without either one. EDGE: Celtics

Bench Players
The Celtics bring in the cavalry to bang inside with Big Baby Davis and Rasheed Wallace and could potentially get a defensive option against Kobe in Tony Allen. The Lakers bring the most versatile yet most inconsistent player on either team in Lamar Odom. After Odom the Lakers bench is fairly weak – Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. Yet, when Odom is on a sugar high, he has the ability to be a match up nightmare for the Celtics and could be the difference in a game or two. He is like Carrie Underwood – he disappears for a while and you don’t think about him, but when he shows up, he reminds you that he has the complete package. EDGE: Lakers

Coaching
This edge is less of a surprise than the horrendous reviews that Sex In The City 2 has gotten. The greatest coach of all time versus a guy that was almost run out of town 3 years ago before Danny Ainge went the desperation route because his job was on the line as well. Doc Rivers has done a good job of keeping his veterans happy while the young Rondo takes the reins of the offense and he has a great defensive assistant coach (who will likely be a head coach next season). Yet he can’t compare to the Zen Master, who has already begun the mind games with his comments about Kevin Garnett. EDGE: Lakers

THE PICK
The Lakers will struggle to score consistently against the Celtics stingy defense and will need Lamar Odom to keep an extra bag of Skittles in his sock at all times. The Celtics offense will also struggle because the Lakers match up well with everyone except Ray Allen (Kobe on Rondo, Artest on Pierce & Gasol on Garnett). Can Allen continue his hot shooting and carry the Celtics to the title? I expect a tough series that is very evenly matched. And when the series is this evenly matched, what are the deciding factors? Who has the best player? Who has home court advantage? Is there a revenge factor? All of those answers are the Lakers. THE PICK: LAKERS IN SEVEN GAMES

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Loved Rajon Rondo’s hustle play against the Magic, which was a perfect illustration of the heart and effort of the Celtics destroying the weak Magic. Up 17 in the first half, Rondo dove head first to steal a loose ball that he and Jason Williams were chasing into the backcourt. Williams had the lead and the edge in the race but Rondo’s effort made the difference, and he then got up with a couple dribbles and made a lay up to increase the blow out. The Magic have shown no heart in the series and will likely be able to schedule tee times for tomorrow morning when their off season begins.

- John Axford’s mustache is awesome. I don’t know anything about the guy, but I logged on to watch the end of Sunday’s Brewers win over the Twins and saw Axford’s mustache on the mound closing out the game. It looks straight out of the 70’s. Almost as important as the facial hair was the fact that he was throwing in the mid to high 90’s. That is something the Brewers entire pitching staff has been missing for years. They haven’t had a guy with an electric fastball that can keep hitters from digging into the batters box and being able to stay in there with no fear of the pitcher owning the inside of the plate.

- Amare Stoudemire responded well in Game 3 to rightfully deserved criticism for being soft during the first two games against the Lakers. He had a monster game with over 40 points and double-digit rebounds. The more impressive part was the versatility he showed on offense while hitting mid-range jumpers, and squaring up and driving past his defenders in addition to his typical mad crashing of the rim on great passes from Steve Nash. Like Amanda Seyfried, he showed the full range of his abilities with his back to the basket/camera (in Big Love) and facing up (in Chloe). The question is whether the rejuvenated Amare will be enough if Lamar Odom gets back on a sugar high in future games because he looked like he ran out of Skittles in game 3.

HATE

- The idea of a cold weather Super Bowl. It does not really have anything to do with the fans or the corporations that buy Super Bowl tickets. The bigger issue is that if the weather does not cooperate, it diminishes the level of play on the field. Yes, games in the snow can be fun to watch on television, but don’t you want to see the best teams playing at their highest level of play? Teams having to play in the rough elements will change the game dramatically and force them to alter the way they played to get to the Super Bowl. Where would you rather hang out with Sara Tomassi – at a ski resort where you are only getting glimpses when you’re at the hot tub of the resort or would you rather spend a week in Miami where she’s in a bikini by the pool all day every day? Seems like a no brainer that you would want to keep the Super Bowl in nice weather to make it the most likely that the teams will be able to showcase their skills on the biggest stage.

- Regardless of your political views, why is President Obama wasting time doing a sit down interview with Marv Alberts? I get the whole “I’m a man of the people and a huge sports fan” angle thing that he has been trying to portray. I appreciate him liking sports, but there seems to be some bigger issues out there in the world that need his attention……finance reform, European debt levels going through the roof, unemployment, an oil spill threatening to wreck the gulf coast, terrorism, etc. And stumping for LeBron to come to Chicago is just pathetic and seems overly contrived.

- RIP to Lima Time. Jose Lima died of an apparent heart attack this weekend in Los Angeles and was only 37 years old. Lima was known for his quirky habits, playing the guitar and talking to himself incessantly on the mound. He had success with the Houston Astros but also played for many teams including the Mets, Royals and Dodgers. He was the type of fun-loving, eccentric personality that you could easily root for as a fan.

Always An Adventure With Airtran

I’ve mentioned in the past my disdain for Airtran, easily the worst of the so-called value airlines. Flying Airtran is just like partying with the North Carolina basketball team…only the exact opposite. It was another recent adventure trying to get back to New York from Milwaukee this week with the airline. I had booked a one-way flight from Milwaukee to LaGuardia as I had flown into Chicago for my brother-in-law’s graduation. Get to the airport, through security and board the plane without issue. As I’m watching the plane board, I’m noticing that the flight is less than 40% full, which is always a bad sign. Sure enough, immediately after everyone has boarded, they announce that there is a 30 minute ground delay, which isn’t a big deal except that they are going to allow people to deplane while waiting. Always a bad sign, meaning they know it’s going to be more than 30 minutes. Sure enough, within 10 minutes, they announce the flight has been cancelled due to “weather in New York.” Really? Do they really think we’re this dumb and gullible? I had spoken with my wife and looked at the weather on my blackberry. I’m not a weather man (I’m right more than 30% of the time, so I’m overqualified) It was 60 degrees, cloudy with no rain and winds under 10 miles per hour in New York. So that’s the weather cancelling the flight? Or is it actually that the plane was so empty it didn’t make business sense to waste the fuel flying an empty plane out to New York? I understand the decision, but don’t just make things up.

As we’re deplaning the lady at the desk is overwhelmed by the people begging her for information about what’s going to happen and what flights they can get. She starts telling people they will either be on the next flight or be routed through Atlanta. As I’m walking to another agent at a gate 50 yards away (in order to circumvent the line and get rebooked immediately) I get an email from Airtran notifying me that my flight was cancelled. Thanks Airtran for keeping me informed about my flight after I’ve exited the plane and am already rebooked on a different flight.

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A couple of quick thoughts while cruising at 35,000 feet…..

The Celtics have absolutely dominated the Magic in no small part because Vince Carter has went back into his shell as a less than clutch performer. With a healthy Garnett, an accurate Pierce and a dominating point guard in Rajon Rondo, the Celtics look unstoppable. The Magic are lost offensively because the Celtics are inviting them to feed Howard in the post so they can foul him and not leaving the Magic shooters open on the perimeter. The only way the Magic can score is with penetration and the only guy on their roster capable of doing that is Carter because Rondo has owned Jameer Nelson. And Carter isn’t capable.

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I was going to save this for a separate post, but it may be time to put Trevor Hoffman out to pasture. It’s a shame that the future Hall Of Famer and all-time saves leader has fallen so far so fast, but he just doesn’t have it. He has blown 5 of 10 save opportunities and has an ERA over 13. The problem the Brewers have is who to put in that spot. LaTroy Hawkins has closing experience, yet he’s on the disabled list and has been hammered this season as well. Todd Coffey just came off a shelling at the hands of the Reds so his confidence can’t exactly be peaked. Does that leave Carlos Villanueva as the closer by default? The Brewers are on pace for a 100 loss season as of this moment and need to do something to turn the tide of this ship. More tomorrow on the people calling for Ken Macha’s head……..Kenny is not the one blowing late game leads and Kenny is not a starting pitcher that can’t last past the 6th inning and Kenny is not the underachieving first baseman worrying more about his contract than about earning this year’s salary.

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The Lakers will take a commanding lead in the series tonight, and the reason will be that despite the Suns playing better defense this year than they have in the past, they are still not playing complete defense. The biggest culprit? It’s easier to score on Amare Stoudemire than it is to score as a cast member on Gossip Girl. Doug Gotlieb described Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol as getting “microwaved” by Stoudemire’s “defense” because as soon as you see him guarding you, you’re already warmed up and about to be on fire. And then for Amare to come out and say Odom had a lucky game when he got lit up for 19 points and 19 rebounds? And yet despite his obvious deficiencies, Amare is going to opt out of his contract this summer and someone is going to give him an outrageous contract. Just doesn’t make sense and I’ve questioned it in the past as well.

Degenerate Friday - NBA Conference Finals

Last night the Celtics started the Cavaliers summer earlier than expected and began the LeBron Watch in Cleveland, New York, New Jersey, Chicago and Miami. Everyone is going to focus in on the Cavs and why they were able to put up the best record in the regular season and then fizzled out in the playoffs. Was it LeBron’s fault? Was it Mike Brown’s poor coaching? Was it his pathetic supporting cast? The one thing that seems to get overlooked is that, using a decent sized caveat: “when healthy,” the Celtics are a better team with more talent than the Cavaliers.

Before game 5 of this round, everyone believed that the Celtics were old, washed up and trying to make one last stand against Cleveland before they drift off into the sunset. Now they have to be a legit threat to beat the Magic and challenge the Lakers. The Celtics won the title two years ago riding the leadership and defense of Kevin Garnett combined with the scoring of Paul Pierce. Last year Garnett was hurt and missed the playoffs, meaning the Celtics had no shot. This year Garnett is healthy and looks to have his swagger back. In addition, Rajon Rondo has matured into one of the top point guards in the league, and Ray Allen is shooting, literally, for one last contract. Add to that Pierce’s experience and shooting despite the fact that he was the slowest guy on the court that included Shaq and Zdrunas Ilgauskas, and the Celtics have all the pieces needed to contend. They have all the talent of Heidi Klum, they just need to stay healthy the same way she has bounced back from having her kids.

So let’s make degenerate Friday about picking the Eastern & Western Conference Finals:

Western Conference: Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers

This should be an extremely entertaining series with the fast pace of the Suns matching up with the stingy defense and offensive firepower of the Lakers. The Lakers have much more size on the interior which will provide a matchup problem for the Suns. Yet the Suns bigs like Channing Frye will be a tough pairing for the Lakers defensively because Frye will pull Gasol or Bynum away from the hoop and somewhat negate their rebounding. Steve Nash will provide nightmares for the Lakers because they’re going to need to use Derrick Fisher and Jordan Farmar to try and contain him. The Suns have also played better defense this year than they ever have, and that’s what will make this a close series.

The long lay off has helped both teams, allowing Nash’s eye to pop back in his socket and allowing Kobe’s finger and knees to get even more healthy. The Suns are flashy and have the people’s support to see Nash and Grant Hill finally get a title. They are like Kate Hudson in that everyone likes them and wants her to be happy, but even with her new perky friends it won’t be enough to win back A-Rod.

The Pick: Lakers in 6 games

Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic

The match up I am fired up for in this series is Jameer Nelson versus Rajon Rondo. My brother and I already have a wager as to who will have a better series, with me taking the Rondo side. I think Rondo is long enough to keep Nelson from shooting over him, and quick enough to keep Nelson in front of him. While Rondo may not score as much as Nelson, he is a much better playmaker and rebounds well with his long E.T. arms. The Celtics are big enough to run a rotation of defenders at Dwight Howard with Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and even Big Baby Davis. Vince Carter should be able to explode against the eroding Paul Pierce and he will be the reason the Magic will get by the Celtics.

When it comes down to it, the Celtics still have the heart of a champion, and are playing their championship level defense again. The Magic are the hottest team in the league, having won something like 27 of their past 30 games, averaging double digit wins during that time period and they haven’t lost in the playoffs. Yet they haven’t played against anyone with the talent, experience and personality of Brooke Burke. The long lay off provides them an opportunity to cool off and game 1 will be a huge opportunity for the Celtics to jump on them early and wrestle away home court advantage. Maybe I’m just drinking the Kool-Aid and have forgotten how good the Magic has been playing, but…….

The Pick: Celtics in 6 games

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Steve Nash was unreal last night leading the Suns while looking like a cross between E.T. and Two-Face from Batman. He took 6 stitches above his eye and the eye swelled shut, which somehow caused his good eye to bulge out even more throughout the 4th quarter. Nash and the Suns finished off the Spurs in 4 games and appear to be a pretty good challenge for the Lakers (once LA dismisses the Jazz). The Suns will provide a tough matchup with their outside shooting big men which have the potential to drag the Lakers big front court away from the hoop. The Suns continue their march as The People's Choice to win the title and the vindication of Steve Kerr as a General Manager continues. The Suns finally were able to beat the team that has kept them from getting the NBA finals routinely for the past 10 years. And the best part? We no longer have to watch Manu Ginobili flop all over the court with that large feminine hygiene product strapped across his face.

- Another point guard who dominated a game and put up ridiculous numbers? Rajon Rondo put up a sick triple double in the Celtics win on Sunday to even the series at 2 games apiece. Rondo is often overlooked when talking about the best point guards in the league – Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Steve Nash and Derrick Rose get all the attention. Yet Rondo has proven that he has the ability to step up in the playoffs and throughout his career has played better in the postseason than he does in the regular season. Rondo also resembles ET with his bug-eyes and long, wirey arms. If the Celtics are going to win this series, and I still don’t believe they will, they will have to rely on huge games from Rondo to make up for the inability of Kevin Garnett to take advantage of his mismatch with Antwan Jamison.

HATE

- Dallas Braden threw the 19th perfect game in major league history on Mother’s Day with his grandmother in the stands. It was a great story, except that all anyone wants to take about is Braden’s mini feud with Alex Rodriguez. Give it a rest. The guy wants to own the mound when he’s pitching, fine. A-Rod has no people skills so he has no ability to make a sane response, which blows it out of proportion. Just focus on the fact that Braden is a young talented pitcher with tremendous upside. A guy that was a junior college teammate of the much more heralded Manny Parra, and there is no doubt that the prospects for Braden appear much brighter than those for Parra. Congrats to the guy for throwing a gem against the team with the best record in the league.

- Trying to refrain from making any of the all too easy jokes about Tiger Woods this weekend. Let’s see, he had to pull out….of the tournament……with a bulging disc………There are just too many ways to take it straight to the gutter like asking Rachel Uchitel about his bulging disc. In the end, the critics are going to say that he quit and that he just wasn’t playing well so he opted to bail than stick it out. I don’t buy it. The guy has proven to be tough when he won the US Open on a broken leg, so people think that nothing can stop him from playing. However, if he wasn’t playing well, was in pain, and the pain was causing his swing to be even more off than it already was, I have no problem with him yanking himself off the course.