Bracket Breakdown - Midwest & West

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Yesterday we set up the bracket challenge and gave some quick thoughts after looking at the bracket. Now it’s time to break it down and figure out how to fill out the best bracket you can. There are tons of stats and number crunching out there, and some are relevant and some are not. Stats are about as reliable as John Edwards’ mistress Reille Hunter, and can be manipulated to tell whatever story you want to shed light on your hunches. The #12 over the #5 is the most overhyped upset pick, yet it has happened 4 times in the past two years. The #12 is 10-18 in the first round the past 7 years, so it’s not a lock, but there are definite potential upsets. Other random stats that people will rely on include stats that teams seeded below #12 are only 6-394 after the first round. So if you pick that #13 seed over a #4, you might want to hesitate before sending them to the sweet 16.

Aside from those generic stats, here is a breakdown of each bracket. My official picks will not be made until Thursday morning, but you will definitely see which way I am leaning after spending Monday tearing through the USA Today, NY Times, NY Post and most of the internet.

THE MIDWEST BRACKET

Theme Song: “Hungry Like The Wolf” by Duran Duran
The song seems fitting for a bracket filled with the deepest line-up of talent, from individual players (Sherron Collins, Evan Turner, Greveis Vasquez, James Anderson, etc), to coaches (Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Gary “Shooter” Williams, Thad Motta, etc), and to teams (Northern Iowa). The team left standing from this bracket might feel relieved to “only” have to play Syracuse, Kansas State, Pittsburgh or another team out of the West bracket.

Keeley Hazel (talent to bust out): Tennessee (#6 Seed)
Everyone knows that Tennessee is the only team to beat both Kansas and Kentucky during the regular season, and it’s their defense that drives their success. They have held teams to below 40% shooting from the field, and had the 8th stingiest defense according to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency. When their get hot, they are capable of beating anyone. The biggest concern about them is whether they were disappointed with the low seeding in a tough bracket and whether they will be able to use that for motivation or come out flat.

Rosie Jones (best stats): Kansas (#1 seed)
They have the 5th ranked defense according to Ken Pomeroy (despite me believing they lacked the ability to lock teams down), they are 2nd in the tournament field in point differential, and 5th in the field in 3-point shooting percentage. Much like the British model, Rosie Jones, they have all the relevant stats dominate the bracket. That being said, caution should be used when putting some sweet action on the individual Kansas games as the Jayhawks are only 14-16-1 against the spread this year.

Carey Mulligan (unknown with potential): Northern Iowa (#9 seed)
I’m not sure that the boy haircut that Mulligan sports is very attractive, but there is no doubt that she is talented on the big screen or just walking down the street. Northern Iowa comes in with a gritty reputation for stingy defense and not being afraid of the big moment. They have lost by 5 points in each of their past 4 tournament appearances. The #9 seed should be able to knock off UNLV before running int o the buzzsaw at the top of the bracket.

David Beckham & Posh Spice (best matchup): #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has as much upside talent as any team south of Kansas, including likely lottery pick Derrick Favors, yet they have been maddeningly inconsistent all season going 8-8 their last 16 games. Oklahoma State has been riding on the shoulders of their All-American candidate James Anderson, which means the Cowboys are capable of making this a high-scoring close battle. Unfortunately for whichever team wins this first rounder, Evan Turner and Ohio State will be waiting to treat them like like Beckham’s achilles tendon.

WEST BRACKET

Theme Song: “Mama Said Knock You Out” by LL Cool J
Maybe the stong is still stuck in my head after the ESPN 30 for 30 special on Reggie Miller, but the song fits for the West bracket. And after I somehow ended up with a British tilt on the Midwest bracket, I needed to bring the West back to the States. The West bracket is wide open with any number of teams capable of knocking one another out.

January Jones (talent to bust out): UTEP (#12 seed)
UTEP cruised to the Conference USA regular season title before wetting themselves in the tournament championship. They have the conference player of the year in Randy Culpepper leading their uptempo attack. Culpepper combined with Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter has the Miners primed to be the best bet for the standard #12 over #5 upset. UTEP is also coached by former John Calipari discipline, so if Tony Barbee does things like his mentor, the Miners need to be successful before the impending NCAA sanctions.

Eva Mendes (best stats): BYU (#7 seed)
BYU has the highest scoring average of the 65 tournament teams, the highest per game point differential (outscoring its opponents by 18.5 points per game), is 3rd in 3-point percentage and the best free throw shooting team. With point guard Jimmer Fredette lighting up scoreboards all season, the Cougars have the ability to score with anyone. However they have not won a tournament game since 1993 and have a first round matchup against a Florida team that is fired up to be back in the tournament for the first time since winning back-to-back titles in 2006 & 2007.

Amanda Seyfried (unknown with potential): Murray State (#13 seed)
There is a rumor that Seyfried has a scene in her next movie where all of her ample talents are put on display. In a related note, Murray State has a chance to get their second all-time NCAA tournament victory when they go up against an overrated Vanderbilt team. The Racers have outscored their opponents by 17 points per game, and are among the nations leaders in rebound margin. They also bring a very balanced attack with 6 players averaging between 10.6 and 9.5 ppg and play tough enough defense to fluster a veteran Commodores squad.

Jake Pavelka & Vienna Girardi (best matchup): #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State
Since this bracket doesn’t have a matchup that looks good on paper, I’m assigning The Bachelor couple that no one liked to the Gonzaga-Florida State game. While I might like the chances of the #12 and #13 seeds in the bracket to advance, it is more a sign of a lack of respect for the #4 and #5 teams than it is a sign of a great matchup. This will be a matchup of the stingy defense of Florida State against the high scoring and shooting Bulldog team – so maybe the couple should be Tenley’s defense against Jake’s advances. We all know Vienna wasn’t playing any defense. Anyway, Florida State has not beaten anyone of consequence outside of the ACC and likely will not be able to score enough to beat Gonzaga.

Check back tomorrow for breakdowns of the East and South brackets……….

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- U-S-A! U-S-A! The men’s hockey team upset the Canadian powerhouse last night, which is ironic since today is the 30th anniversary of the Miracle on Ice victory over Russia in the 1980 Olympics. This was nowhere near the level of upset and is still in pool play not a medal round, but it was an extremely entertaining game – especially for a guy like me that does not follow hockey (I have an issue with any sport that calls it’s jerseys “sweaters”). But the best part of a hockey game? The goal horn. Is there anything better than the loud fog horn that blasts after each and every goal in any hockey game? Just awesome.

Since I am not old enough to have any memories of the 1980 games, here is my first memorable hockey introduction. I grew up in Wisconsin, which is hockey crazy, yet despite my cousins playing the sport, I never was really exposed to the game. Fast forward to college, where Wisconsin has a rich hockey tradition. I somehow snag two prime seats at mid-ice for a game and manage to talk this girl who played on the University’s women’s club hockey team to go with me. Now I know what you’re thinking – that she was more interested in the cheerleaders than me – but I don’t think that was really the case. We settle into our seats and she’s attempting to explain the game to me when Dany Heatley (currently playing for Team Canada) scores for the Badgers. The place goes bezerk and that fog horn goes off. I’m into it, though still spinning trying to figure out how people can keep up with the puck. Suddenly the entire crowd starts pointing at the opposing goalie and chanting “Sieve!” - particularly this 75 year old grandmother sitting next to us who is screaming with extreme passion! That’s when I knew that hockey was something that must be in your blood and you either have it or you don’t. I didn’t. Grandma Sieve defintely did.

- NBC Hockey Announcer Doc Emrick is outstanding. He combines the emotions and pace of Gus Johnson, the intelligence of Jay Bilas and the personality of Steve Lavin all into one. There were times during the game where I wasn’t fully paying attention but simply the tone and pace of his voice made me focus back on the game.

- I have generally poo-poo’d all of the hype around John Wall at Kentucky this season. Without having seen him play very much, I tended to believe that that he was a very talented guy, lightning quick point guard with a solid shot, but he was immature and probably quite as good as advertised. Well, I’m starting to come around. Despite having an off shooting night, he was able to come up with a game saving blocked shot and knock down crucial free throws as Kentucky took down Vanderbilt on Saturday night. I still think Wall is not as polished as Derrick Rose was during his one year in college, and I think DeMarcus Cousins might be the best freshman on Kentucky this year, but I’m starting to believe that he will be a major contributor in the NBA next season.

- I am a big fan of match play golf relative to the low-score method that is used in most pro tournaments. There’s just something to going head to head for the 18 holes against the guy you’re battling and not having to worry about checking the scoreboard to see who is having a good round. It just brings a different attitude to the course – kind of like on The Bachelor when they make all the women live in the same house with no access to television or phones and a fully stocked liquor cabinet. Then we act surprised when the claws come out and the girls are not quite as they appear on the show………like this season’s villain, Vienna.

HATE

- Boner has gone missing!! Who knew that this would be the only time it would “family friendly” to type those words? Andrew Koenig, the guy who played Richard “Boner” Stabone on the 80’s sitcom Growing Pains went missing at the Olympics this weekend. He was supposed to return to LA and didn’t show up for his flight. Hard to believe that guy is 42 years old now, and another sad story of a childhood actor struggling when their career matures.

- Enough with the analyzing of Tiger’s speech last week. To no one’s surprise, there are people crying for more from him and others who think he nailed the apology. Obviously, those that profit from Tiger (like ESPN & the PGA) think he was great. Those that profit from continued drama (like the rag mags) think he was too staged and robotic. Who cares? Let the dude put his life back together.

- I have had enough of Bode Miller. I get that the guy is the “most decorated Olympic skiier” in US history – which is kind of like being the tallest midget. The guy can ski faster than anyone because he has no fear, which is impressive. But he is obvlivious to the honor of being an Olympian, and has no pride in skiing for his country. Listen to some of the past medal winners in the US or even some of the current winners – Brian Boitano, Dorothy Hamil, Lindsey Vonn or even Shaun White – they all speak about the pride and pressure they felt to win for their country. Not Bode – he measures success not by winning or posting a good time, but by the fun he has with a twelver in the hot tub. In his spoiled, deuchebag world, this is just another week partying on the slopes. He’s the John Mayer of skiing – he has one great talent, but is a complete asshat when he’s not doing that one talent.

- While Major League Baseball fans whine about the lack of a salary cap in baseball, the system that is currently in place in the NBA doesn’t seem to be working either. What kind of system rewards a team for blowing up a team for 2-3 years with no intentions of winning in hopes of clearing enough salary cap space to sign two super stars? That’s been the program the Knicks have been on for the past 3 years. Not a program of rebuilding with young stars that may take some years to develop. (That is the plan the Blazers and Thunder have used successfully) The Knicks have taken on terribly overpaid players with expiring contracts and have freed up the cap space to sign two of the big free agents from this year’s bumper crop of available stars.

Can they convince LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to both come to New York and rule Gotham as Batman & Batman? Tracy McGrady would play Robin to the two of them, and let’s not kid ourselves – a team of those 3 would easily be among the favorites to win the title. Part of me wants to see it happen just for the intrigue of it, but the rest of me doesn’t want to reward a franchise for being awful and taking money from their season ticket holders who were paying good money for an intentionally suboptimal product.