Super Bowl Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Gregg Williams deserve every bit of praise they get after this game. The Saints won the game by staying aggressive, playing with nothing to lose and taking it to the Colts over and over again. They played like the team that wanted it more and for that they deserve credit.

Payton almost made himself the goat with a poor decision to go for it on 4th down trailing 10-3 late in the first half. Thankfully for him the Colts went ultraconservative (more on that below) and gave the Saints a chance to put points on the board and get momentum before the half. Yet Payton redeemed himself with an amazing onside kick call. The thing I liked about it was that Payton is known as an aggressive players coach and he stayed true to his colors on the biggest stage he has ever coached on.

Brees and the offense got off to a slow start but his stats by the end of the game were incredibly impressive, going 32-39 including 29 of his last 32. He was completely in command during the game, moving around in the pocket to get extra time and finding the right receivers at the right time. If you want a good article about Brees and how he has always been an ultracompetitive, great athlete despite not having the ultimate size to be a pro athlete, check out this article from Saturday’s NY Times.

Gregg Williams was masterful against Manning and the Colts offense. That ended an impressive run by the Saints by beating 5 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks during one season, culminating in a string of Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. While normally this would vault Williams into contention for some head coaching positions, his past record coaching Buffalo (17-31) means he is probably best suited to just focus on being a defensive coordinator.

- Commercials :

While the commercials overall seem to get weaker every year, there were a few highlights. I always enjoy the E-Trade commercials with the baby. Loved the jealous girlfriend asking if “that milk-aholic Lindsey was over” – awesome. The Google commercial was the most intelligent commercial where they basically slammed an entire romantic comedy movie into a 30 second commercial all using Google searches. So much so that the girls made us go for an immediate replay. Also really loved the Jim Nantz commercial, particularly when he dropped the “How about No?” line on the guy. Although I don’t remember what the commercial was for – Dove for Men maybe?

Yet the highlight of the commercials for me was the dialogue among the group I was watching the game with during a local commercial in the second half for the NY lottery. The commercial shows an adult jumping into a huge pile of the play balls like at Chuck E. Cheese, which led to most everyone reacting with disgust because of the perception that kids like to pee in the balls. When one of the girls asked why, we guessed that it was because the kids were half buried, no one’s really looking and they’re little kids. To which she responded with perfect timing “Well it’s not like I pee under my desk because no one’s looking!” Great point. This may or may not have been the brandy talking, as we had easily polished off the bottle making brandy old fashioneds.

- The coverage from CBS – I didn’t see any shots of Kim Kardashian (did I miss it?) and minimal shots of the Manning family. They kept it a very clean telecast with a focus on a football game that was very cleanly played (minimal penalties) and dramatic, though not as high scoring as many (myself included) predicted. Can someone please get musicians under 50( or 70?) for the halftime show in the next few years. The music of The Who is fine, just not during halftime of the Super Bowl. I mean, did they keep their walkers and defibrilators next to the stage during the show? They had their “farewell” tour 30 years ago!! I understand they need to keep it safe since the Janet Jackson episode, but wouldn’t Kenny Chesney be safe? Wouldn’t Carrie Underwood be safe? (at least she got the National Anthem) Jay-Z? Beyonce? Alicia Keyes? There are quite a few options for musicians that don’t have to go backstage after the show and toast a nice glass of Metamucil.

- Was there any more of a sure thing than this year's Hall of Fame class including Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith? Other than betting on Carrie Underwood looking impressive to sing the National Anthem, it was the safest bet you could possibly make this weekend (as evidenced by my incorrect pick on the game and the over). And while Emmitt had a horrendous run attempting to make it as an ESPN commentator, he gave a great interview talking about his father telling him that he had lived both of their dreams during his life. That was pretty cool.

On a somewhat related topic that probably belongs under the "hate" category, did anyone have a worse week/weekend than the NFL Network? Michael Irvin gets accused of sexual assault in a civil suit. Warren Sapp gets arrested for domestic abuse on his girlfriend. Both are NFL Network contributors. Ouch.

HATE

- Didn’t like the Snickers/Betty White commercial. I thought it was way overrated and not that funny. Yes, it was somewhat comical that Betty White got tackled in the mud. But then taking a bite of a Snickers bar turned the guy back into a wimpy looking toolbox. So let me make sure I have the commercial right – if you don’t eat Snickers, you are Betty White. If you do eat Snickers, you’re a nerdy looking wimp? I don’t really like my options, so I’m going to pass on the Snickers and maybe build a house out of Bud Light. Probably not the message the people at Snickers were looking for.

And last add on commercials – do you really think Brett Favre is driving a Hyundai? Once again proving it’s about the money for him, he does an add with Hyundai when I can’t see him behind the wheel of anything that’s not an Escalade, pick up truck or SUV. And didn’t Sears already exploit the whole indecisiveness in a commercial?

- Are the Colts the Atlanta Braves of the NFL? The Braves won countless consecutive division titles and multiple World Series appearances during the 90’s. They had the best pitching staff in baseball with John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and others including Steve Avery. Yet they only have one World Championship, which came in 1995. The Colts have won the most games of any team in the NFL during the decade and have won their division almost every year. They also have the most prolific passer in the game in Peyton Manning. And after all of that, they only have one title and Peyton Manning is 9-9 in the playoffs. I’m too lazy to look up the actual numbers, but I would guess more than half of those games have been at home or as favorites because of their strong regular seasons.

- Enough with the whole “winning a Super Bowl saves the city” story. Honestly, winning a Super Bowl does not rebuild the homes in the Lower Ninth Ward. I get that they love their Saints and this gives them a sense of pride. Yet when the party ends in a week or two, they still have to go back to the neighborhood where half the houses are still boarded up. I guess at least they’ll be standing in the wreckage with a smile on their face?

- How did 2004 Peyton Manning somehow take over Peyton 2009’s body and play the Super Bowl? Calling 3 running plays near the end of the half, locking in good field position for the Saints and allowing them to get a FG to make up for the momentum they lost when failing on 4th down the previous possession? He suddenly went from the robotic guy with the cold, calculating stare knowing he was sizing up and dissecting the other team to the unsure, indecisive guy that couldn’t beat the Patriots.

- I don’t know if Reggie Wayne was more hurt than anyone let on, but he did not look right. And he flat out dropped the final pass, which would have brought the Colts within a touchdown and given them a chance for an onside kick.

Degenerate Friday - Super Bowl

Before getting to the game and the gambling, a quick story…….a long while back we covered a few “rules” for the gym like don’t wear sweatpants, use a towel, wear sandals in the shower, etc. One thing we didn’t mention, which I never thought had to be mentioned. Yesterday after I work out, I head into the locker room and as I get close to the lockers, there is a Mexican guy sitting on one of the benches when I hear that unmistakeable sound of a nail clippers!! The guy is clipping his finger nails in the middle of the locker room, with no towel to catch the loose nails or anything!! Talk about disgusting. So of course, I proceed to give him the dirtiest of looks, and shake my head in disgust while muttering “unbelievable” under my breath. I then proceed to spin my lock to get in my locker...

Unfortunately for me, the story doesn’t quite end there. I have a blue lock for the gym – no reason other than that’s what they had at Duane Reade when I bought it years ago. Never gave it a second thought, but over the years I realized it’s kind of nice because you never have to worry about which locker you choose because the blue stands out from the standard black lock. So I go to that blue lock and put in my combination and the lock doesn’t open. I try it again, and nothing. Strange. Keep in mind I had just made a fairly public display of disgust at the nail clipping d-bag. After a fourth failed attempt, I’m starting to feel like I’m the subject of a prank. I look up and realize…..I’m at the wrong locker. My lock (which is slightly beat up) is actually about 5 lockers to the left. Someone else has the exact same blue lock. After making a mini scene about this gross dude, I’m now meekly sliding over to the correct locker assuming that he is getting a little chuckle out of my stupidity.

Oh, and isn’t it typical Los Angeles Clippers style that Mike Dunleavy steps down as coach and the interim coach is a guy named Kim? I mean, it’s worse than a boy named Sue because at least Sue can use the Johnny Cash song. Kim Hughes is the interim coach of the Clippers now. Random fact: Kim played for the University of Wisconsin from 1970 to 1974.

Time to break down the big game on Sunday and answer the question of what is the best bet of the weekend. In most columns you’ll see matchups broken down with the Colts offense against the Saints offense and then a slight advantage to one team or the other. That’s a waste of time because the Colts offense is not competing with the Saints offense. Let’s break it down correctly…………using Wedding Crashers quotes.

When the Colts have the ball….

Jeremy Grey: Tattoo on the lower back? Might as well be a bullseye.

Peyton Manning is the Wedding Crasher looking to find the tattoo on the lower back of the Saints defense. The Saints needed to blitz to get half of their sacks during the season (17 of their 35 sacks came on blitzes) which means they cannot get enough pressure from just their front four. If you blitz Peyton, he’s smart enough to adjust and has a connection with his receivers allowing him to quickly dump the ball off safely or hit the big play where there isn’t enough coverage. I was going to use the quote with Jeremy Gray (Vince Vaughn) calling out for a “hot route” but the difference is the Colts offense knows exactly what hot route Peyton calls. Darren Sharper is a ballhawk, but can be beaten (as he has been repeatedly during his career) because he overruns plays and bites on fakes trying to make a big play. That will leave the secondary exposed and vulnerable to the big play. In the AFC Championship I thought Pierre Garcon would be the key receiver threat (yeah, pat myself on the back for that one) and in this game I think it’s going to be Dallas Clark. The Saints linebackers, Jonathan Vilma, Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are not going to be able to stay with Clark. ADVANTAGE: Colts

When the Saints have the ball…

John Beckwith: Claire's mom just made me grab her hooters.

Jeremy Grey: Well snap out of it! What, a hot older women made you feel her cans? Stop crying like a little girl.

John Beckwith: I wasn't crying like a little girl.

Jeremy Grey: Why don't you try getting jacked off under the table in front of the whole damn family and have some real problems, jackass. Hey, what were they like anyway? They looked pretty good, are they real? Are they built for speed or comfort? What'd you do with them? Motorboat? You play the motorboat? You motorboatin son of a bitch! You old sailor you! Where is she? She still in the house?

The Saints offense is built for speed and comfort. When Drew Brees is on his game, he is among the top quarterbacks in the league and can light up a scoreboard like Sack Lodge lit up Jeremy during the family football game. Yet Brees did not appear to be extremely accurate during the NFC Championship game, which is concerning given that the Super Bowl will be played on grass where his receivers will be half a step slower. In addition to the mismatch of Brees against a young Colts secondary that relies upon zones more than tight coverage, the Saints have the ability to pound the ball on the ground. Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas should be able to grind out some tough yards, which could open up the deep ball for Colston or open up space for Reggie Bush. Bush has the potential to make an impact with his running, receiving or kick returns, and will be the determining factor for the Saints offense. ADVANTAGE: Saints

Colts Coach Caldwell vs. Saints Coach Sean Payton

Bratty Kid: I just want a bicycle!

Jeremy Grey: Why... why are you yelling at me?

Bratty Kid: Make me a bicycle, clown!

Jeremy Grey: All right, I'm going to make you a bicycle. But I don't want to make you a bicycle.

Bratty Kid: Shut your mouth, funny guy, and make it.

Jeremy Grey: Take that, you hyena, don't say thank you.

No one really knows how good of a coach Jim Caldwell is because everyone assumes Peyton is completely running the team. However, he has managed the team well to get past his decision to rest his starters and forgo a shot at a perfect season. Every player wanted to go for it, yet he has not allowed that to be a distraction from the ultimate goal of a championship. So while it may appear that Peyton tells Caldwell to make him a balloon bicycle, the team does seem to respect him. Sean Payton has spent the week being the “other” Payton involved in the Super Bowl, which is a shame because he is truly one of the best and brightest young coaches in the league. He is completely in sync with Drew Brees and has endeared himself to the New Orleans fanbase like no coach other than Rex Ryan in New York. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is a blitzing machine but will have his hands full trying to mix it up against Manning. And unfortunately, his big mouth may have cost the team because now the officials will be ultrasensitive to any “remember me” shots his team puts on the Colts QB, and that penalty could potentially extend a drive or lead to points. I’m favoring Payton over Caldwell, but Williams mouth closes the gap to closer than it should be. ADVANTAGE: Saints

Colts Fans vs. Saints Fans

Jeremy Grey: I'm sure you'd love to be free, maybe go out and meet some Latin guy that can dance, grind up on you, make you feel dangerous but also safe. And how about you? Don't you want to get inside Chastity without having to wonder if everyone's gonna find out?

John Beckwith: God, wouldn't that be sweet?

Jeremy Grey: Wouldn't that be nice? And have some Latin guy sweating all over you, talking to you in languages you don't understand, needing you, wanting you, taking you?

John Beckwith: All we're trying to say is, put your swords away for a second. Let's finish this and let's move on.

Jeremy Grey: Get out there and get some strange ass.

Let’s see, the wild, hard-partying Mardi Gras crowd from New Orleans against the Midwestern wholesomeness of the Colts. And since the Colts were just in Miami for the Super Bowl in 2006, it’s likely that not as many fans make the trek back down to Miami. I’m expecting there to be doublt the number of Saints fans relative to the Colts fans. And let’s not kid ourselves the parties that are present in Miami are much more in line with those in New Orleans than they are to those in Indianapolis. The Saints fans are the long-suffering group that invented the paper bags on their heads to watch the Aints lose over and over again. It is easy to root for the Saints because of that long and sad history. The Colts have been the best team during the decade (in number of wins) and won a Super Bowl just a few years back, so they will not be the crowd favorites. Americans love an underdog story, and the Saints are the underdog story. What a shame for the Saints that they finally make the Super Bowl and their favorite historical quarterback, Archie and their hometown kid who made it good, Eli, have to root against them because of Peyton Manning. The Colts at least gained Kendra Willkinson when they signed Hank Baskett to their bench, so they have that going for them, which is nice. ADVANTAGE: Saints

The Pick….

John Beckwith: I'd like to be pimps from Oakland or cowboys from Arizona but it's not Halloween. Grow up Peter Pan, Count Chocula.

COLTS (-5) over Saints
I want to root for the Saints, I really do. I also want to be a pimp from Oakland or a cowboy from Arizona. It's just not reality. I like Drew Brees and the way he plays the game. I like Sean Payton and his no nonsense approach similar to the always effective Bill Parcells. The Saints have weapons on offense with Colston, Henderson and Meachem complimenting Reggie Bush. Yet at the end of the day, the experience of the Colts will be the defining factor as much as Peyton Manning. The Saints will be overwhelmed when they step on the field and it will take a couple series for them to find their comfort zone. Unfortunately for them, Manning could have the Colts up 10-0 before the Saints find that groove. I like the Colts to win 37-27.

Other Bets:

Over 57 total points
There will be points, and without Freeney, the Saints will put at least 28 on the board, which makes the over achievable.

Jersey # of the first TD: Over 25.5
This is a bet on the Colts to score first. If the Saints score, it will likely be under (Brees – 9, Colston- 12, Meachem-17, Henderson-19, Bell-21, Thomas-23, Bush-25). Yet I expect the Colts to get on the board early (Addai-29, D. Brown-31, Wayne-80, Garcon-85, Clark-44) – and it won’t be Collie (#17) or Peyton (#18) on a keeper.


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Squirrel is Live From Miami & Overhyped Super Bowl Stories

Before we get to this week's rankings, I have to mention the impressive showing by the Wisconsin Badgers in dismantling Michigan State last night. The Badgers were hot from the field and shredded the Spartan defense all night. There's nothing more satisfying than watching Tom Izzo cry on the sidelines when his team is getting is arse handed to them in every aspect of the game. Izzo is a great coach (5 Final Fours in 11 years speaks for itself), but I have never seen someone cry or whine so much. He doesn't get angry or yell at officials, he just pouts and whines to them. It's really pathetic to watch. Tommy, face it, Bo owns you at the Kohl Center. It's just reality.

It’s ranking time and with the Super Bowl just a few short days away, let’s rank the stories that have been and will continue to be beaten into the ground before kickoff. Starting with the least annoying and ending with the stories that have already been killed and should be let go.

But first, we received word from none other than the Squirrel, who is on location in Miami with a first hand report. Squirrel has officially become the roving reporter for the site after his report from Alabama during the national championship game, and here are a couple of highlights from Miami. It sounds like he’s enjoying himself already.

Let your readers know that Miami is beautiful and that if they are considering making the trip for the Superbowl, it is highly recommended. We got here on media day, which was notoriously rained out.. but things have improved tremendously. Today, my wife and I laid out at the beach, then the pool, then went back to the beach. Its 70s and sunny. Superbowl week in Miami is way better than the National Championship week in Alabama. A few tips: Sunny Iles Drive is one of the shortest paths from the Superbowl to the beach. Sunny Iles drive = MLK blvd. (remember what Chris Rock said about MLK drive? If not, watch this – starting about the 30 second mark.) don't worry, things clear up and you make it to the beach where everything is good. Turn right at the ocean and Southbeach and the rich folks are down there.

95.7 is not the oldies channel, like it is in Milwaukee. If you only speak english, put this at pre-set #1. All Espanol all the time. Love it. We were jamming it in the red mustang convertible driving to the hotel; the locals were impressed. Finally, we saw the Goodyear blimp cruising over Miami beach today. Probably taking some film for footage to show during the game.. So if you see it, be prepared that, unfortunately for us, and those like us, the ratio of banana hammocks to thongs is 1.5 to 1. Maybe its a bad time of year. And to be clear, not many of the aforementioned people should be sporting such items.

Thank you field reporter, Squirrel!! Now on to the overhyped stories for the week:

5 – Tim Tebow’s anti-abortion ad.

This is not the forum to discuss pro-life or pro-choice. I don’t really care what stance you have, it’s your right to have that opinion one way or the other. Tim Tebow also has that right to have an opinion and considering his story (his mother was encouraged to abort her pregnancy due to medical complications and she chose to have the baby, which grew into Tim), how could you blame him for having that stance? The issue is whether the NFL/CBS can control whether to show it. If they open up the lid to this ad, then the next step will be an ad for the opposing view and then we’ll get ads for and against political candidates. It’s a slippery slope away from funny beer and internet commercials that people actually enjoy watching during the game.

4 – Kyle Eckel

I won’t rehash the details here, as Gregg Doyel does a much better job of it here. It’s just a strange story without any clear answers, but if Eckel does anything in the game, Jim Nantz and Phill Simms will beat the story into the ground. Speaking of Jim Nantz, did everyone see his guest appearance on How I Met Your Mother on Monday night? Fantastic. Definitely worth a replay. He came across as funny, and a regular guy, which is the opposite of how he came off during his divorce when his wife accused him of wanting to hang a 15 foot painting of himself in their living room.

3 – Colt’s Shun Perfection

If the Colts win the game, there will be an endless stream of people in the media making the following statement “The Colts won every game they gave full effort in, so they could have went 19-0.” Life doesn’t work like that, people. For all we know, if Peyton had stayed in the game against the Jets, Calvin Pace might have broken free and left a “remember me” shot (thanks Gregg Williams!) on Peyton that could have ended his season. Or maybe Reggie Wayne twists an ankle. Or….you get the point. It's the "Butterfly Effect" in that one little change in the past has huge ripple effects on the future. There is no telling what could or would have happened. The Colts believed resting their players was the best decision to help them win the Super Bowl. If they win on Sunday, that resting decision was the best decision they could have made. That’s all that matters.

2 – Dwight Freeeney’s Ankle

I’m not saying his ankle isn’t a huge deal in determining who will win the game. He is the best player on the fast Colts defense and his ankle will slow him significantly if he is able to play at all. I just don’t want to hear about it on Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday and Friday and Saturday. It is not going to heal overnight. It’s just not. Anyone who has busted up an ankle like this is well aware of how little changes in 1 day. Yet we’re going to get doctors, witch doctors, psychics and that guy who sings “Pants on the Ground” to weigh in on whether Freeney will be able to play. Speaking of gruesome injuries, check out the picture of Brett Favre’s ankle after the NFC Championship. While I don’t like him as a person, you cannot argue with the dude’s toughness.

1 – Kim’s Boyfriend, Reggie Bush

We get it, Kim Kardashian is a star because she looks great in a dress or a bikini. Wait, has she ever done anything to be famous other than make a sex tape with Brandi’s little brother, Ray-Jay? Well, her step-father is Olympic gold medalist Bruce Jenner, does that make her famous? Nope, not really. Has she acted? Nope. Anyway, we’re going to get bombarded with stories about whether her and Reggie are going to get married, and plenty of shots of the entire Kardashian crew traveling to the game together. The real story is whether Reggie can have an impact on the game the way he did against the Cardinals. Because if he does, there is a chance the Saints will give him a nice fat contract extension. If he doesn’t, it’s going to raise questions on whether he is worth the investment and the Saints could cut him loose from their backfield which already contains solid backs like Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.

Degenerate Friday - Conference Championships!!

Before getting to the Conference Championship picks for the weekend, did anyone happen to catch Steven Bardo’s slip while announcing the Indiana-Penn State game last night? He was attempting to “give a lesson” to post players about keeping the ball high, but he instead took a shot at fat girls. “All you big guys and big girls out there, take note.” And of course his broadcasting partner quickly jumped in and reminded him that he meant “post players” and not healthy eaters. Solid.

When looking at the games this weekend, I started looking at movies that were based (in whole or part) in the locations of the games themselves, which meant finding movies based in Indiana or New Orleans. Obviously for Indiana, it was Hoosiers, which has some great parrallels to the AFC Championship game between the Colts & the Jets. The Jets have the brash coach of the underdog, who is probably having the field measured to tell his team that the field is 100 yards in Indy, just like it is in New York.

Aside from Easy Rider being another movie with Dennis Hopper (he was Shooter in Hoosiers and Billy in Easy Rider), it’s based on a motorcycle ride across the country to get to Mardi Gras in New Orleans. The other reason is that I found a quote that works for the game, so I’m just going to go for it. Let’s get right to it and see if I can keep improving, from 0-4 in the wildcard round to 2-2 last week, it’s time for a 2-0 weekend.

Standard weekly disclosures – recreational purposes, spreads from the NY Post, home teams in CAPS, etc.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – Hoosiers quote from George to Coach Dale

“Look, mister, there's... two kinds of dumb, uh... guy that gets naked and runs out in the snow and barks at the moon, and, uh, guy who does the same thing in my living room. First one don't matter, the second one you're kinda forced to deal with.”

COLTS (-7.5) over Jets

Before getting to the game analysis, how great has Chelcie Ross’s career been? In addition to playing opposite of Gene Hackman in Hoosiers, he was also the veteran pitcher, Ed Harris in Major League, the coach in Rudy, and Connie Hilton in Mad Men. Talk about an underrated career. Anyway, the quote applies pretty well to Rex Ryan and the Jets. He’s now doing his barking in the living room of one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game, and now Peyton Manning is forced to deal with him.

I went back and looked at Manning’s stats in games against teams he played in the regular season and replayed in the post season, and didn’t find an real patterns. But the one historical time I did find which had some interesting parallels was in 2004, when the Colts played the Broncos in the final regular season game, and Peyton threw two passes and rested while the Broncos won to secure a playoff spot. Denver then came to Indy and got smoked 49-24 in the playoffs with Peyton throwing for over 450 yards and 4 touchdowns. Intresting tidbit, except that the Jets have the best running game and best defense in the league. However, digging a little deeper, the Broncos had the 4th best rushing offense that season and the 4th best defense in the league. Another parrallel was with the Colt strong offense where they were 1st in passing offense in 2004 and they were second in 2009. The 2004 Colts defense was worse than their 2009 counterparts, ranking 28th in 2004 and 19th this season. So what does this mean? Probably not all that much, but it is a historical pattern where Manning and the Colts rebound strongly against a tough defense and blew the game open on the fast turf in Indy.

I expect the crowd noise to be a difference maker in this game, and while Sanchez has played tremendous in his first two playoff games, he will need to be perfect to keep the Jets close. If the Colts can score early and get a lead, Sanchez will be forced to throw without the comfort of play action, which allows the speedy defense of the Colts (tremendously faster than the Chargers) to tee off on him. The Colts will use jabs and some dink-and-dunk passes to keep the Jets at a comfortable distance for the majority of the game. The half point hook concerns me a little, but I think Manning and Company march on to Miami.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP – Easy Rider quote from Billy (Dennis Hopper)

“Man, everybody got chicken, that's what happened. Hey, we can't even get into like, a second-rate hotel, I mean, a second-rate motel, you dig? They think we're gonna cut their throat or somethin'. They're scared, man.”

SAINTS (-3.5) over Vikings

In theory this should be the most entertaining football game of the entire season. A potent Saints offense against a stout Vikings defense. The most balanced Vikings offense against the opportunistic Saints defense. Darren Sharper gets a shot at his former Packers teammate Brett Favre & his former team, the Vikings. The reason I chose the quote was partially based on the fact that there really aren’t many memorable movies set in New Orelans. And this movie may even be a little bit of a stretch because it’s about the guys taking a motorcycle ride from LA to New Orleans and their encounters along the way. Anyway, it’s also because this is a scary game for degenerates to get involved with. Betting on this game is the equivalent of asking out Mariah Carey, I mean, I guess it looks good, but you know you’re messing with an unstable, and woman who is larger than she appears on television or pictures.

If the crowd noise affects Favre’s ability to check out of plays, it may make Brad Childress the happiest guy in the building, but it will limit his skills at taking advantage of the blitzing Saints defense. That could force him to make rushed and bad decisions, playing right into the hands of New Orleans. Yet as much as everyone kept expecting him to have that melt down game at some point during the season, he never did. So why would we expect him to suddenly go back to his old ways? The Vikings also will likely try to pound the ball with Adrian Peterson, and they should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Saints defense.

The Saints offense is loaded with weapons and Drew Brees and his merry band of receivers will be able to put points on the board. The Vikings defensive line is banged up, which should open up more running lanes for the Saints than have been there against Minnesota all season. If the Saints can establish any running game, it slows down Jarred Allen, which will give Brees enough time to dissect the Vikings secondary. The game will be a shoot out, not Cardinals-Packers level, but will be back and forth and at the end of the day, the Saints explosive offense will be able to put a few more points on the board than Favre and the Packers. We all know what happened the last time the Saints were in the NFC Championship game against an NFC North team (see picture) but this time they get their first trip to the Super Bowl in franchise history.

LAST ADD: Just to throw a prop bet out there to break any ties in case I somehow end up 1-1, take Pierre Garcon to have the most receiving yards at 10-1 odds. With Revis on Wayne, Garcon will be the quick target for Peyton. And after he catches some dinks and dunks, he might have a shot for a deep one, putting him up around 125 yards, which should be enough. The Viking have Rice, but his odds at 5-2 aren’t that appealing. The Saints spread the ball around too much, and the Braylen Edwards will lead the group in yards lost to drops.

Quick Hits

It’s pretty obvious that the players at “The U” believe you get to the NFL by rushing the QB and tackling running backs - not by covering TEs. They didn’t cover any of the Wisconsin TEs all game, and got burned for it as Wisconsin beat Miami in the Champs Sports Bowl last night. The game was proof that at Miami, swagger is valued, and intelligence is not - the Hurricanes continually fell prey to every play action fake and misdirection running play. I’m pretty sure most of the Miami team would struggle to spell “The U” if you gave them 3 guessses. And Miami’s quarterback Jacorey Harris? Looks like a carbon copy of Terrell Pryor (Ohio State), Juice Williams (Illinois), Andre Woodson (Kentucky), Brad Banks (Iowa) or Kordell Stewart (Colorado). All great athletes that can’t play quarterback. A nice win for a young Wisconsin team to get to 10 wins and likely start next season in the top 15.
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Facts we know in the Texas Tech - Mike Leach - Adam Jones - debacle: (1) Jones was disciplined for lack of effort in practice, (2) Jones got a concussion, (3) He was put in an equipment shed for 3 hours, (4) his dad, ESPN’s Craig James, complained to the Texas Tech administration, and (5) Mike Leach is due a $800,000 bonus if he’s still the coach on Thursday, 12/31.

From there, the versions of the story depend upon who is telling the story and it has more changes than the Charlie Sheen-Brooke Mueller altercation. Supposedly Coach Leach was “punishing” James by forcing him to sit in the dark shed for 3 hours. Leach & the Texas Tech trainer said that since James needed to stay out of bright lights due to the concussion, it was good for him to stay in the shed. At the end of the day, it seems pretty obvious that James was a slacker, his dad was overreacting, and Leach should have had the kid in the training room, not isolated in some equipment shed. Everyone is in the wrong on this one.

Leach has always been entertaining and quirky (remember his “fat little girlfriends” quote?), but probably went over the line with this one. But memo to the James family - couldn’t you come up with a better way to handle this? Did you really need your daddy to whine to the administration? Couldn’t you and your dad have a meeting with Leach and the coaching staff away from the spotlight to figure it out? And if you’re not happy, then transfer. All of these seem like better options than making it the lead story on ESPN, separating James from his teammates (many of whom probably like playing for Leach), and putting a stain on his potential future pro value (if he had any to begin with). Just seems like a situation where neither side really thought through their actions very well.
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Everyone is all riled up about the Colts laying down for the Jets on Sunday. Yes, the Colts laid down easier than one of the Kardashians for a pro athlete. Coach Jim Caldwell followed the Colts philosophy that was given to him by Bill Polian - get prepared for the playoffs. The Colts earned the right to do whatever they wanted in the final two games by winning their first 14 - they don’t owe the league, the history or the fans anything. They earned the right to throw Curtis Painter in at QB, where he was more rattled than a Tiger Woods voicemail.

The real question is if Caldwell can now get his players to channel the disappointment and anger they feel - because let’s face it, they all wanted to go for the undefeated season - and use that energy to fend off the Chargers and Patriots to get to the Super Bowl. They’re going to need it because the Chargers are playing better than anyone else in the league and the Patriots appear to be rounding into form.
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The last week of the NFL season has a ton of compelling storylines as teams jostle to get into the playoffs or better their seeding. The only teams that are locked in their spots are the Colts, Chargers and Saints. Everything else is up for grabs. In the NFC, the 6 teams are known, but 3 of the teams could still end up with the #2 seed. In the AFC, there is a mess with a mix of scenarios based on who wins and loses. But the Jets and Ravens can play their way in by beating the Bengals & Raiders, respectively. If the Patriots beat the Texans earlier in the day, the Bengals will have nothing to play for and will likely rest their starters against the Jets. That would mean that the Jets, after losing at home to the Falcons (without Matt Ryan or Michael Turner), would benefit from back to back games against back up competition to get into the playoffs. It’s not their fault - you play the cards you are dealt. Kind of like when you’re at an all-you-can-eat buffet and you have to make a minimum of three trips…..unless you’re Rex Ryan and you make seven trips.
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Interesting link on the most and least profitable teams to gamble on during the decade. I think it’s just a reminder that the lines are always slightly skewed for the big market teams. The Yankees, Red Sox, Lakers and Cubs are among the worst teams to bet on. The first three of those teams have had great overall success, and the Cubs, well…….they suck.
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My weekly NFL Rankings will return either tomorrow or Friday while I recover from my hangover and watch a ridiculous amount of college football.