Degenerate Friday! 2nd Half Predictions

Since my baseball futures bet of the Mariners went so well in the first half of the season, I figured I’d make some predictions for the second half of the season. I mean, I believe I wrote that the addition of Milton Bradley combined with the veteran leadership of Ken Griffey Jr. would carry the M’s offense. Yeah, that didn’t work out all that well – it’s hard to lead when you’re sleeping in the clubhouse and retiring before the all-star break, and it’s hard to provide offensive punch when you’re taking time off for mental instability. Anyway, let’s hope my second half thoughts can burst on the scene like Jen Brown – the next Erin Andrews chosen to be the ESPN sideline princess during college football season. She seems to have all the assets, understands her role and judging by her outfit at the ESPY’s, is not afraid of the limelight.

AL Playoff Teams:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Red Sox

It’s a pretty boring picture in the AL, without many surprises. The Yankees have the best team in baseball, with a pitching staff capable of carrying them through even without their potent offensive line up. It’s a bad sign when you know that they will be involved before the trading deadline and all they are looking for is middle relief or set up help in the bullpen. It’s like having the assets of Brooklyn Decker and only having to worry about finding the right dress for the ESPY’s to showcase her talent – it’s not really fair to anyone else around.

The Red Sox have been fighting the injury bug all season and the continued absence of Dustin Pedroia will hamper the offense as they try to stay with the Rays for the wildcard. If they can get him and Josh Beckett back healthy and effective, they will reel in the Rays and pass them for the last playoff spot. The Sox pitching with Lester, Lackey and a healthy Beckett could make them a nightmare in the playoffs if they can qualify.

The Twins will be able to outlast the Tigers & White Sox in the Central and the Rangers will run away the west with the addition of Cliff Lee. Lee can carry the Rangers to the AL Championship Series and gives them a fighting chance with his dominance of the Yankees. Unfortunately the Yankees veterans will prove too much for the Rangers, despite the playoff experience of Lee & Vladamir Guerrero.

Divisional Round:
Yankees over Twins
Rangers over Red Sox

AL Champ: Yankees over Rangers


NL Playoff Teams:
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL Wildcard: Mets

The Braves made a smart trade getting rid of the immensely talented but mercurial Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez. In Bobby Cox’s final season, the team is all pulling in the same direction and can’t afford the distraction of the often-disinterested shortstop. With the return to health of Jason Heyward and Nate McClouth, the Braves offense will be able to match their strong pitching and hold off the Mets and Phillies for the division crown.

The Reds have been among the surprises in baseball this season. While they had the talent to compete, no one knew if the youth would finally come through. They are much like the 2008 Brewer team in that they have a young core of talent that should be able to carry them, but they could definitely use an extra pitcher to give them the leverage to hold off the Cardinals. They should try to get involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes, yet it might be more difficult to get a division foe to trade with than it would be to get a Vegas VIP hostess job without frontcourt enhancements.

The Padres have been a tremendous story during the first half of the year with a pitching staff that has kept them at or near first place most of the season. Yet the Rockies have been coming on as of late and all the experts seem to think they are still the team to beat in the NL West.

The Mets will also be heavily involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes and may be the team capable of taking on his big contract. Also look for them to be there to get Ted Lilly from the Cubs. That addition of a pitcher combined with the return of Carlos Beltran, even if he is not at full strength, should be enough to hold off the injury-riddled Phillies for the Wildcard.

NL Divisional Round
Braves over Reds
Mets over Rockies

NL Championship: Braves over Mets

World Series: Yankees over Braves

Degenerate Friday!! MLB Futures

Before the gambling talk, a quick thought on the Giants beaning Prince Fielder with the first pitch of his first at bat of spring training. Prince hit the walk-off homer last season that culminated with an over the top celebration involving the entire team at home plate. I am all for the celebration, but when you do something like that, you may have to pay the piper, even though the celebration wasn’t aimed at the opponent and was just his own team celebrating together. I was glad to see Prince handle it like a man, flip the ball back to Zito and trot to first base. Now at the same time, the Brewers now have the right to continue the feud if they choose. If they want to plunk Pablo Sandoval in spring training or have Yovanni Gallardo buzz Zito’s tower when he gets to the plate in the regular season, it is justified.

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Just a little over a week until we get to the “Degenerate Christmas” that is the NCAA tournament. In the meantime, we need to keep up the roll we have been on when we loaded up on picking the US Hockey Team in the preliminary round and Canada in the medal game. What, you didn’t think I was serious on those games? You don’t trust my Olympic hockey knowledge? Never underestimate the random crappy sports knowledge that is stored in the Sports Addict’s head. So how do I keep that momentum going? By telling you about wagers that won’t be determined until November, so you’ll have long forgotten the wager by then – that’s how! Let’s look at the value bets for baseball futures on winning the World Series and the AL & NL Pennants. These are not my picks for who I think will win the trophies, but purely where I think there is value based on the current odds being offered. Let’s figure out where to stash our long-term investments…..assuming gambling was legal of course.

Here’s the link to the odds on bodog.com, and below are a few select odds for those that can’t get the link at their office:

Odds to Win the World Series & odds to win the AL/NL Pennant:

Yankees: 11/4 & 3/2
Red Sox: 10/1 & 6/3
Rays: 20/1 & 12/1
Twins: 20/1 & 9/1
Tigers: 28/1 & 14/1
White Sox: 25/1 & 12/1
Angels: 15/1 & 17/2
Mariners: 16/1 & 8/1
Rangers: 25/1 & 12/1

Cardinals: 13/1 & 11/2
Phillies: 6/1 & 3/1
Mets: 20/1 & 10/1
Braves: 22/1 & 11/1
Brewers: 40/1 & 18/1
Cubs: 18/1 & 9/1
Reds: 50/1 & 25/1
Astros: 75/1 & 40/1
Dodgers: 14/1 & 7/1
Diamondbacks: 35/1 & 15/1
Giants: 20/1 & 10/1

Worst Possible Bet:

New York Mets – World Series (20/1) or NL Pennant (10/1)
What have the Mets done that would lead you to think they could contend in their own division, much less the NL or the World Series? They added Jason Bay, who is like Fergie from the Black-Eyed Peas. A strong individual contributor, but when you surround them with real talent – like Will.I.Am – then you actually have something that can sell records. Even with Bay, their pitching is not good enough to content with the Phillies, Braves and possibly the Marlins. Johan Santana is a stud, but after that they are relying on John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez – three guys that could barely be the #4 starter on the other contenders. And yet because of the New York media and optimism, the odds remain similar to a team like San Francisco, which has Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnathan Sanchez and Barry Zito? Seems like their odds should be similar to Heidi Montag winning the Nobel Prize.

Best Value Bet for AL Pennant:

Seattle Mariners (8/1 odds)
There is no value to betting on the Yankees or Red Sox, so we’re just going to eliminate those teams immediately. The number of homer fans that will bet on them drive down the odds, which makes them even less attractive. And as of this moment, the Sox don’t have enough offense to compete (they will likely add Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego at some point), and the Yankees have to fight complacency after last year’s title. So instead, let’s look at a team that made some crucial acquisitions during the off-season and I believe may be best positioned to knock off the Yankees – the Mariners.

Their pitching rotation is as good as anyone in the league, with King Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation, followed by last year’s post-season darling Cliff Lee, and Erik Bedard. The back end of the rotation has as much depth as it does talent, with a veteran in Ian Snell and young guys like Ryan Rowland-Smith, Doug Fister and Luke French. The bullpen is full of guys you never heard of, like closer David Aardsma. Then again, no one knew who Blake Lively was when she showed up in random terrible movies like “Accepted” or “The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants” and now she is paparazzi gold – much like Aardsma can be fantasy baseball gold.

Offensively, they added more speed to pair with Ichiro when they signed Chone Figgins away from division rival Anaheim. They picked up shortstop Jack Wilson from the Pirates at last season’s trade deadline, and they have great camraderie in the locker room due to the presence of the Mariners greatest player of all time, Ken Griffey Jr. If they can keep Milton Bradley focused on just playing baseball, he has the potential to be as important to the Mariners as Ron Artest has been to the Lakers this season. Getting 8/1 is pretty good value for a team that has two of the best pitchers in the AL, and two of the best on-base and production guys with Ichiro and Figgins.

Best Value Bet for the NL Pennant:

Atlanta Braves (11/1 odds)
Again, we are looking for value, so the Phillies are not in consideration. In addtion to that, it is hard to see them winning a third consecutive pennant. So where do we look? The Cardinals? Maybe, but the NL Central may be the toughest division battle top-to bottom with the improved Brewers pitching staff, a healthy Cubs team, and a young and improved Reds team. (The AL Central is the next toughest with the Twins, Tigers & White Sox. The AL East has NY and Boston, and maybe the Rays, but the Orioles & Blue Jays stink) And don’t sleep on the Astros, who still have Roy Oswalt to anchor their pitching staff and Carlos Lee & Lance Berkman on offense. Facing that challenge and not having great odds, I’ll pass on the Cardinals. That and I think that Tony LaRussa is an arrogant jag-off, so I would never want to root for him over a full season. The Atlanta Braves who have retooled, and have the offense and pitching to come together and make a run at the pennant, while giving us some quality value at 11/1.

The Braves have the offense to score runs, surrounding veterans Chipper Jones and Brian McCann with Nate McClouth, Melky Cabrera, veteran Troy Glaus and stud-in-the-making Yunel Escobar. It is a solid line-up of speed with McClouth, power with Jones, McCann & Glaus, and combo players like Escobar. Combine that line-up with their emerging pitching staff, including youngsters Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hansen with veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Low, and you have a team capable of being dominant. They also get the advantage of playing in a division with the worst team in baseball in the Washington Nationals, and teams that likely will not be able to compete in the Mets & Marlins. Lastly, don’t forget the emotions involved in the team knowing this is Bobby Cox’s final season as manager and wanting to send him out with a big season. Cox has been a legend in Atlanta and deserves to go out on top.

Best Bet to win the World Series:

Seattle Mariners (16/1)
Well, if we’re looking at a Seattle-Atlanta matchup in the World Series, Fox is not going to be happy, but baseball fans should be thrilled. You will get the angle of Ken Griffey Jr. and Bobby Cox trying to end their storied careers with a title, the return of Cliff Lee to the World Series, and the potential of a second straight Japanese born MVP (Matsui last year and Ichiro of the Mariners). While I like the odds and thus the payday of the Braves better, the Mariners have a more experienced pitching staff and will have come out of the tougher American League.

There you have it – my prediction that will most definitely not play out accurately, and I’ll come up with 1,000 different excuses for why it didn’t happen – injuries, weather, bad management, unfair playing field when the Yankees make another big trade, etc. Basically, I’ll turn into the 2009 NY Mets.

Super Bowl Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Gregg Williams deserve every bit of praise they get after this game. The Saints won the game by staying aggressive, playing with nothing to lose and taking it to the Colts over and over again. They played like the team that wanted it more and for that they deserve credit.

Payton almost made himself the goat with a poor decision to go for it on 4th down trailing 10-3 late in the first half. Thankfully for him the Colts went ultraconservative (more on that below) and gave the Saints a chance to put points on the board and get momentum before the half. Yet Payton redeemed himself with an amazing onside kick call. The thing I liked about it was that Payton is known as an aggressive players coach and he stayed true to his colors on the biggest stage he has ever coached on.

Brees and the offense got off to a slow start but his stats by the end of the game were incredibly impressive, going 32-39 including 29 of his last 32. He was completely in command during the game, moving around in the pocket to get extra time and finding the right receivers at the right time. If you want a good article about Brees and how he has always been an ultracompetitive, great athlete despite not having the ultimate size to be a pro athlete, check out this article from Saturday’s NY Times.

Gregg Williams was masterful against Manning and the Colts offense. That ended an impressive run by the Saints by beating 5 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks during one season, culminating in a string of Kurt Warner, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning. While normally this would vault Williams into contention for some head coaching positions, his past record coaching Buffalo (17-31) means he is probably best suited to just focus on being a defensive coordinator.

- Commercials :

While the commercials overall seem to get weaker every year, there were a few highlights. I always enjoy the E-Trade commercials with the baby. Loved the jealous girlfriend asking if “that milk-aholic Lindsey was over” – awesome. The Google commercial was the most intelligent commercial where they basically slammed an entire romantic comedy movie into a 30 second commercial all using Google searches. So much so that the girls made us go for an immediate replay. Also really loved the Jim Nantz commercial, particularly when he dropped the “How about No?” line on the guy. Although I don’t remember what the commercial was for – Dove for Men maybe?

Yet the highlight of the commercials for me was the dialogue among the group I was watching the game with during a local commercial in the second half for the NY lottery. The commercial shows an adult jumping into a huge pile of the play balls like at Chuck E. Cheese, which led to most everyone reacting with disgust because of the perception that kids like to pee in the balls. When one of the girls asked why, we guessed that it was because the kids were half buried, no one’s really looking and they’re little kids. To which she responded with perfect timing “Well it’s not like I pee under my desk because no one’s looking!” Great point. This may or may not have been the brandy talking, as we had easily polished off the bottle making brandy old fashioneds.

- The coverage from CBS – I didn’t see any shots of Kim Kardashian (did I miss it?) and minimal shots of the Manning family. They kept it a very clean telecast with a focus on a football game that was very cleanly played (minimal penalties) and dramatic, though not as high scoring as many (myself included) predicted. Can someone please get musicians under 50( or 70?) for the halftime show in the next few years. The music of The Who is fine, just not during halftime of the Super Bowl. I mean, did they keep their walkers and defibrilators next to the stage during the show? They had their “farewell” tour 30 years ago!! I understand they need to keep it safe since the Janet Jackson episode, but wouldn’t Kenny Chesney be safe? Wouldn’t Carrie Underwood be safe? (at least she got the National Anthem) Jay-Z? Beyonce? Alicia Keyes? There are quite a few options for musicians that don’t have to go backstage after the show and toast a nice glass of Metamucil.

- Was there any more of a sure thing than this year's Hall of Fame class including Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith? Other than betting on Carrie Underwood looking impressive to sing the National Anthem, it was the safest bet you could possibly make this weekend (as evidenced by my incorrect pick on the game and the over). And while Emmitt had a horrendous run attempting to make it as an ESPN commentator, he gave a great interview talking about his father telling him that he had lived both of their dreams during his life. That was pretty cool.

On a somewhat related topic that probably belongs under the "hate" category, did anyone have a worse week/weekend than the NFL Network? Michael Irvin gets accused of sexual assault in a civil suit. Warren Sapp gets arrested for domestic abuse on his girlfriend. Both are NFL Network contributors. Ouch.

HATE

- Didn’t like the Snickers/Betty White commercial. I thought it was way overrated and not that funny. Yes, it was somewhat comical that Betty White got tackled in the mud. But then taking a bite of a Snickers bar turned the guy back into a wimpy looking toolbox. So let me make sure I have the commercial right – if you don’t eat Snickers, you are Betty White. If you do eat Snickers, you’re a nerdy looking wimp? I don’t really like my options, so I’m going to pass on the Snickers and maybe build a house out of Bud Light. Probably not the message the people at Snickers were looking for.

And last add on commercials – do you really think Brett Favre is driving a Hyundai? Once again proving it’s about the money for him, he does an add with Hyundai when I can’t see him behind the wheel of anything that’s not an Escalade, pick up truck or SUV. And didn’t Sears already exploit the whole indecisiveness in a commercial?

- Are the Colts the Atlanta Braves of the NFL? The Braves won countless consecutive division titles and multiple World Series appearances during the 90’s. They had the best pitching staff in baseball with John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and others including Steve Avery. Yet they only have one World Championship, which came in 1995. The Colts have won the most games of any team in the NFL during the decade and have won their division almost every year. They also have the most prolific passer in the game in Peyton Manning. And after all of that, they only have one title and Peyton Manning is 9-9 in the playoffs. I’m too lazy to look up the actual numbers, but I would guess more than half of those games have been at home or as favorites because of their strong regular seasons.

- Enough with the whole “winning a Super Bowl saves the city” story. Honestly, winning a Super Bowl does not rebuild the homes in the Lower Ninth Ward. I get that they love their Saints and this gives them a sense of pride. Yet when the party ends in a week or two, they still have to go back to the neighborhood where half the houses are still boarded up. I guess at least they’ll be standing in the wreckage with a smile on their face?

- How did 2004 Peyton Manning somehow take over Peyton 2009’s body and play the Super Bowl? Calling 3 running plays near the end of the half, locking in good field position for the Saints and allowing them to get a FG to make up for the momentum they lost when failing on 4th down the previous possession? He suddenly went from the robotic guy with the cold, calculating stare knowing he was sizing up and dissecting the other team to the unsure, indecisive guy that couldn’t beat the Patriots.

- I don’t know if Reggie Wayne was more hurt than anyone let on, but he did not look right. And he flat out dropped the final pass, which would have brought the Colts within a touchdown and given them a chance for an onside kick.

Barney Baseball

Baseball is in the final week of the regular season and I can’t remember a recent season with less drama in almost every race. The only exception is the AL Central where the Tigers and Twins are currently starting a 4 game series with the Twins trailing the Tigers by 2 games. Why does no one outside of Minnesota or Michigan care about who wins? Part of the problem is the media’s intense focus on only things involving the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers – the 3 biggest baseball markets. The other problem is that whoever wins the division is going to be first round fodder for those Yankees.

What’s better? To be the Twins where every year you might barely squeak into the playoffs and then get bounced in the first round, or to be the Marlins where they build up a team capable of winning (and they have won), then blow the whole thing up, are terrible for a couple years and then reload. I’m not sure, because I’d like to be in the playoffs every year, but do you become immune to the excitement if you just continually get bounced in the first round? Kind of like a girlfriend that has classic good looks but may not be a super model/singer vs. the girl with the boob job and botox that’s going to need to be “retuned” every few years. I think I’ll take the consistency year over year. Think Tony Romo trading in Jessica Simpson for Natalie Smith.

This season, there have barely been any changes in playoff teams since the end of June. As of June 30, the AL playoff teams would have been: Boston, NY, LA Angels, and Detroit. As of today, those are the exact same teams, the only difference is now the Yankees won the division and the Red Sox are the wildcard. In the NL, it took an extra 3 weeks, but as of July 20, the playoff teams would have been: Philly, St. Louis, Dodgers, and Colorado. As of today, those are the exact teams in the exact places.

The positive from the fact that the last 2+ months of the season have been meaningless, is that it confirms that the best teams will be active in the playoffs. These teams have proven over the course of the season that they have the best teams in their divisions and, in theory, the playoffs should be very competitive. I’ll put together a more in-depth preview once the regular season is complete, but for now I’ll just say that I think 1-2-3 starting pitchers and a couple guys who can mash are the keys to success in the playoffs.

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On a somewhat related, but different topic, I’m rooting really hard for the Rockies to fold in this past week and have the Braves or the Giants make the playoffs as the NL Wild Card. I’m not sure what I have against the Rockies – they swept the Phillies two years ago, which I thoroughly enjoyed – but I think it has something to do with the Purple Barney uniforms. Has a team wearing purple ever won a major championship?

NFL – Vikings -> Nope
NBA – Suns, Raptors (since dropped), Kings, Jazz, Bucks (since dropped) -> Nope
MLB – Rockies -> Nope
NHL – LA Kings -> Nope

The only real exception is the LA Lakers. Their purple and gold has won many championships, so maybe they break the rules about winning while looking like Barney.

I guess the only other exceptions I can think of are the Baltimore Ravens, but they are primarily black and white and use purple and gold as accent colors……maybe. And I guess you could make a case for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but since they’ve changed colors 3,217 times in the 11 years they’ve had a team, I’m not sure it counts.

So maybe that’s why I don’t want to see the Rockies in the playoffs. Either that or it’s the fact that games at Coors are never the classic pitching duels I like in the playoffs. Or I’d rather watch Lincecum or Tommy Hanson pitch than……….sorry, can’t think of a Rockies pitcher – Ubaldo Jimenez?