Degenerate Friday on Thursday! Sweet 16

Before we talk basketball, a quick reminder that you get what you pay for. My wife and I had received passes to a free screening of the new Dreamworks movie “How to Train A Dragon” in Times Square. Of course, they had given out too many passes, so after waiting in line for a while, we were told the theatre was full and we were out of luck. The guy behind me starts to complain loudly that he’s super annoyed, it’s not fair and they should do something to make up for it. The guy is a roughly 40 year old black man wearing glasses with yellow lenses, who is there by himself to see a childrens movie. And he’s complaining about how he’s being treated at a FREE screening. Really, dude? At the end of the day, what are you out – 20 minutes of your time? I’m pretty sure he would have spent that time creeping like he did on the Indian girls behind him he was eavesdropping on when he interrupted to ask them “Wait – are you having trouble getting laid? I find that hard to believe.” You stay classy, New York.

Before we get to the breakdown, I’m pretty sure I need a pep talk after the shellacking I took in the second round…….yup, this should do the trick.
Game 1: #1 Syracuse (-6) vs. #5 Butler

Everyone’s favorite sleeper team in the sweet 16 is Cornell, but the team that most resembles Hickory High from Hoosiers is actually Butler. Yes, Cornell has never advanced to this round before, and yes the Ivy League does not have the athletic budgets like the major conferences. However, these are kids in the Ivy League where they don’t give out athletic scholarships or allow people to take the SATs for their recruits (like John Calipari teams….alledgedly). Cornell is full of smart kids that likely have a decent future ahead of them due to an Ivy education. So they’re not really underdogs. Butler is in the middle of nowhere Indiana, in a small conference, and not known nationally academically. They are the true underdog story.

Unfortunately, this underdog story is going to end with the loveable dog getting hit by an orange bus speeding along to the next round. Syracuse has its own underdog angle, as they do not have a single McDonald’s All-American on their roster, which is practically unheard of for a national power. They are too long, too athletic and play a defense that will fluster the Bulldogs. Wes Johnson and the Orange are more than Shelvin Mack and the Bulldogs can handle. Butler has won 22 straight games, but even their two tournament wins were against other mid-major teams (UTEP & Murray State). Their first test against a major power in the tournament will not go well.

Gambler’s Special: Syracuse (-6)

Game 2: #2 West Virginia (-4.5) vs. #11 Washington

This could be the most competitive game of the night. West Virginia lost their starting point guard (his nickname was “Truck” – not exactly flattering for a point guard, right?) but they have a replacement in Joe Mazzulla who has started in the past. However, Mazzulla is not an offense threat at all, which will allow Washington to pay more attention to De’Sean Butler and the other offensive Mountaineers. In addition, Mazzulla will be the only primary ballhandler for the Mountaineers which will be difficult giving the pressure that the Washington guards will put on the ball.

Washington is talented and underperformed early in the year which knocked expectations down. They were ranked in the low teens in most preseason rankings, and fell out after a slow start. Look for Pondexter and Thomas to carry the Huskies to the Elite Eight. When the Mountaineers fall, it’s just another example of Bob Huggins underperforming in the tournament, which means we should probably expect his tournament performance to resemble Lindsay Lohan stumbling out of a club.

Gambler’s Special: Washington (+4.5)

Game #3: #2 Kansas State (-4.5) vs. #6 Xavier

This should be the most entertaining game of the night although it will probably draw the least interest. The second-most recognized team in the sunflower state versus a team that refuses to be lumped in with the mid-majors that is led by a guy that “dunked” on LeBron James. Not exactly riveting story lines for the media to jump on. Yet the guard play at Kansas State has been extremely strong in the tournament and they are playing with some serious swagger. In addition, they can lean on the fact that they handled Xavier comfortably earlier in the season. Kansas State is forcing their way into the conversation as a contender for the national title in the same way Miley Cyrus is forcing her way into the discussion about any pop culture as she sings, acts and suddenly shows up as a guest judge on American Idol.

Xavier is familiar with this round of the tournament as this is their third straight trip to the sweet sixteen (though first with their current coach), and has major conference talent in Jordan Crawford surrounded by strong play from Terrell Holloway and Jason Love. They will not be intimidated by the moment, which should allow them to keep it close until the closing moments.

I thought Kansas State would struggle early in the tournament because of the emotional highs of their coach and their point guard, but they have shown that those emotions can be harnessed. If they continue to play like they have, they have a great shot to get past the Musketeers and the Orange en route to the Final Four.

Gambler’s Special: Kansas State (-4.5)

Game #4: #1 Kentucky (-8) vs. #12 Cornell

The media is all over this game because it pits the lowest remaining seed against the highest remaining seed and a basketball powerhouse against an academic powerhouse. Also add in the rabid Kentucky fanbase against the large Cornell alumni network in New York and near ESPN’s Bristol headquarters and you get more hype than this game really deserves. Cornell is a great story about a bunch of nerds who are good basketball players that play the game really well and have advanced further than anyone predicted. Their run very closely resembles that of Davidson in 2008, where Davidson was a very disciplined team with one deadly scorer (Stephen Curry), and took advantage of beating solid, but not very athletic teams during their run (Gonzaga, Georgetown & Wisconsin) before they ran into Kansas.

This time around, Kentucky is that team that just has too much for Cornell to handle, with 3 potential first round draft picks. John Wall will be able to handle Louis Dale defensively, and should be able to blow by him on the offensive end. Eric Bledsoe has the ability to stay with Wittman if he maintains his discipline, and DeMarcus Cousins will expose Jeff Foote as the slow, plodding center that he is. Add to that the experience and ability of Patrick Patterson and this game may not be competitive.

All the analysts want to point out that if Cornell can keep the game close late into the game, the fact that the crowd will be pro-Cornell (close to campus in Ithaca, the NY alumni contingent driving up to Syracuse from NYC, and fans rooting for the underdog) may put tremendous pressure on the young Wildcats team. But keep in mind that the Kentucky players have played in major league atmospheres all season and have dealt with the stress and pressure of an SEC tournament. This is the biggest stage these Cornell kids have ever seen. And expecting them to stay close until the closing minutes is a very large task – like asking Mischa Barton to stay off drugs. Overall to quote Joe Biden, the talent gap between Kentucky and Cornell is a “big f—king deal.”

Gambler’s Special: Kentucky (-8)

Lessons Learned from the NCAA Tournament

Well, after getting slaughtered by the second round of the tournament (7 of the sweet 16? Embarrassing!), it’s time for the autopsy to determine what went wrong and what can be improved when picking the sweet sixteen games.

First, since everyone is talking about the “health care reform” package that moved closer to reality, I found a hilarious quote. I don’t actually care what side of the political wall you fall on, you have to appreciate this sentiment: “Shove it down our throats now; we’ll shove it up you’re a$$ in November.” Classic angry protesters. I also found it interesting that the approval rating for the Skeletor look-alike, Nancy Pelosi, was 8%. That’s not a typo. EIGHT percent. 92% of the people disapprove of you. As bad as my picks were for the tournament, I got a lot more than 8% right.

Lesson #1: Offense can trump defense

I’m not ready to declare defense dead, but in this year’s tournament, offense was the king. Kansas had the 5th ranked defense (efficiency adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy), and was shredded by the Northern Iowa attack. Temple and Wisconsin were among the best in the country for fewest points allowed per game. Cornell shot over 50% against both teams and lit them up for 78 and 87 points. Pittsburgh plays a tough physical defensive style, yet it was no match for the offense of Jordan Crawford of Xavier. Obviously, offense is easier on the eyes, much like it was much more enjoyable to watch Erin Andrews on Dancing With the Stars than it was to watch the heavy set woman from Reno 911 (I legit don’t know her name, don’t really care and am too lazy to look it up). Side note: Andrews was fairly impressive on the dancing show but I have less than zero standing to judge dancing, as in my opinion the best dancing I have seen was Usher & Chris Tucker dancing a tribute to Michael Jackson.

Lesson #1 in the Sweet 16: Duke vs. Purdue
Purdue has gotten to the sweet 16 despite the loss of Robbie Hummel by redoubling their defensive focus and holding Siena and Texas A&M to 64 and 61 points, respectively. They will attempt to apply that same defensive grind to the shooting attack of Duke which is led by the perimeter trio of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler. Will the physical defense of Chris Kramer, E’Twaan Moore and JaJuan Johnson be able to keep the Blue Devils in check? Purdue also was able to harness the lack of respect card (even the President picked them to lose in the first round), but that motivation may wear out by the time the second weekend rolls around.

Lesson #2: Coaching Matters

In the one-and-done format of the NCAA tournament, coaching is critical, especially for the second game of the weekend. The best veteran coaching minds in the game, Tom Izzo, Jim Boeheim, and Thad Motta are still alive. Joining them are the young impressive coaches like Cornell’s Steve Donahue, Northern Iowa’s Ben Jacobsen and Kansas State’s Frank Martin. These coaches have the ability to make adjustments during the game like Tom Izzo after his team lost Kalin Lucas, or the ability to rally his team to believe they can beat anyone like Ben Jacobsen and Steve Donahue. It’s much like Buzz Aldrin on Dancing With the Stars, who was brave to try dancing at 80 years old, but definitely could not really do the required dancing. Yet because he had a good dance partner/coach, he was able to go out there and not embarrass himself.

Lesson #2 in the Sweet 16: Michigan State vs. Northern Iowa
If someone told you there was going to be a matchup with a team that just beat the top-seeded team in the tournament against another team that just lost its best player to a torn Achilles tendon, it would sound like a mismatch. If you then add in that the first team is a mid-major and the second team lost its top player, yet hails from the best conference in college basketball, you might hesitate for a second. And finally, if you find out that the team that lost its best player has the game’s best coach on its sideline, now you’re really struggling with picking the game. That’s exactly what’s happening with the Northern Iowa and Michigan State game. Tom Izzo is the best coach in the country during March, and he is the only reason you don’t count out Michigan State to beat Northern Iowa.

Lesson #3: Success Formula for Non-Majors

Some people are claiming that parity has arrived in college basketball. I don’t buy it. Every couple years the tournament has a season when there are an inordinate amount of upsets, everyone claims we’ve never seen a tournament like that before, and the next year we get three #1 seeds in the final four. I think what’s more interesting than the potential parity is that the teams from the non-major conferences that are having success have found a formula for success: An intelligent coach, a serviceable big man and one star shooter/scorer with the rest of the team guys that can knock down jumpers. Look at Cornell – a strong coach, 7-foot center, a son of an NBA player who can fill it up, and then a cast of screeners who are capable of knocking down a jumper on occasion. St. Mary’s has a big man in Omar Samhan and surrounds him with a bunch of Australian guys who can shoot from anywhere. Butler has effective size and bunch of guards who knock down open three-pointers. It’s the same formula Davidson used with Steph Curry. It’s the same formula George Mason used in 2006 with Jai Lewis inside and Tony Skinn & Will Thomas on the perimeter.

Lesson #3 in the Sweet 16: Cornell vs. Kentucky
Cornell will take that formula into their battle with top-seeded Kentucky this weekend. The Big Red will hope that their disciplined application of the formula will be enough to frustrate the young Wildcats. Side note – why are the supposed “smart” people in the Ivy league too dumb to come up with a better nickname for their teams than a color? The Cornell Big Red and the Harvard Crimson. Rally around a color? Syracuse is the Orange, but that was a change to political pressure from the former name Orangemen. Anyway – back to the point…..Cornell will try to ride the hot shooting to overcome the major talent gap between its players and those at Kentucky. If Cornell can stay hot from the outside and their big guy can slow the inside game of DeMarcus Cousins, the Big Red has a chance to stay in the game.

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

Well my bracket is completely busted after the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, so that’s the hate of the week………….the link is on the right to check the standings of the Sports Addict Brackett Challenge and see how awful my picks were.

LOVE

- Who was the biggest hero of the weekend? It definitely wasn’t the politicians who want to celebrate the fact that they actually did something over the weekend. And let’s face it, they really didn’t do anything since there are still more hoops to jump through. The real hero of the weekend was Ali Farokhmanesh, the Northern Iowa kid who hit the 3-pointer that sent home tournament #1 seed Kansas. His shot wasn’t just a clutch shot, it was one of those shots where the coach is yelling “Noooooooooooo! Yes!!!” because you’re up 1 with under a minute to play and typically the coach wants you to run some clock before shooting. Yet the Kansas defended backed off Ali, and to quote the great Gus Johnson, Ali decided to “rise and fire” from beyond the arc. Immediately after he hit the shot I got a text from my brother “that kid has balls the size of….well…….Iowa.” Enough said.

- The other contender for hero of the week? Korie Lucious of Michigan State, hitting the game winning shot to send the Spartans past Maryland into the Sweet 16. In a highly entertaining game that went back and forth in the final minute, Lucious carried a team that lost its best player, Kalen Lucas, and was also dealing with an injury to Chris Allen. It also ended the career of Maryland’s star guard, Greivis Vasquez, and it will be interesting to see where Vasquez’s pro potential ends up. The Spartans will have their hands full dealing with the Northern Iowa team next week, especially if the Lucas injury is a torn achilles heel like it appeared to be.

- So what is the best conference this year? There are 11 conferences represented in the sweet 16 which is a great illustration of the parity and thin line between the major conferences and the mid-majors. There is only one conference with more than 2 teams still alive: The Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State & Purdue). The Big 12 (Kansas St & Baylor), Big East (Syracuse & West Virginia) and SEC (Kentucky & Tennessee) have two teams each, and the rest are single teams from conferences including the ACC, Pac-10, Ivy, Atlantic-10, Missouri Valley, West Coast and Horizon. It was a very impressive showing for the much-maligned Big Ten.

- On the other side of the spectrum, it was enjoyable to watch teams that were definitely overrated show how overrated they were. I’m talking directly to New Mexico, a team that cried about a lack of respect for their great record and then they completely wet themselves in the tournament. They were completely dismantled by the 11th seeded Washington team. Other teams that were exposed as frauds during the first weekend: Temple, Vanderbilt, Richmond, Pittsburgh and yes, Wisconsin. It happens every March when teams cry for respect or build up expectations, only to deliver a performance like Jennifer Lopez like Gigli.

- The quote of the weekend. It had nothing to do with basketball, and took place at dinner Saturday night with a group of friends discussing how a girl should pace herself drinking on a date to roughly match the amount that the guy is drinking. We got into a discussion of a girl who was drinking 4 cocktails to 1 for her date because she figured it was free drinks and she knew the date wasn’t going to lead to a second date (or even a second bar). To which my friend just deadpans “Why would you waste a hangover on a bad date?” Well said.

HATE

- The performance of Wisconsin was pitiful. First, Cornell was flat-out better than the Badgers in every aspect of the game. Their big slow white guy was better than Wisconsin’s guy, Nankovil. The Cornell scorer (Wittman) was equal to the Wisconsin scorer (Leuer). The Cornell undersized point guard played under control, didn’t turn the ball over and made shots – all things that Trevon Hughes did not do. The Cornell shooter (Jacques) made his shots, and Wisconsin’s shooter (Bohannon) could barely hit the ocean if he fell out of a boat. Cornell had guys coming off the bench that made contributions, and the Badgers did not. At the end of the day, there are not many teams that can out-fundamental a Bo Ryan team, and Cornell did that.

The most disappointing aspect was the disappearance of the Badger senior backcourt of Hughes and Bohannon. When the Badgers got hot near the end of the regular season after Leuer returned from injury, those two were driving the bus. In the Big Ten tournament and in both NCAA Tournament games, they drove the bus into a ditch and lit it on fire.

- In addition to the Wisconsin veteran backcourt collapsing, the same happened to Kansas and Villanova. Kansas’s Sherron Collins was awful in the Jayhawks debacle and he wasn’t able to step up and carry the team like you would expect from a senior All-American point guard. Similarly, Scottie Reynolds couldn’t get Villanova past St. Mary’s in the second round, proving that the first round struggles were not a fluke and Villanova was not nearly as good as everyone thought. Time to change the thought that an experienced floor leader is what is needed to advance in the tourney. And it also put an end to my “Fat Point Guard Theory.”

- If you were a pseudo-small market team and were about to sign your franchise catcher to the biggest contract in the history of the franchise (and among the top 5 contracts ever in the sport), wouldn’t you want that to be the lead story in sports? Wouldn’t you want your team to get the publicity it deserves for keeping its star player? The Twins signed the best catcher in the game, Joe Mauer, to an 8-year, $184 million contract that will keep the Minnesota-native home and keep the Twins competitive. Yet they announce it on a Sunday when all the national sports outlets are spending their time on the NCAA tournament and the Tiger Woods interview. Wouldn’t they have been better served holding on to the announcement until Tuesday when the college hoops dies down and they can get the attention of the media?

(and I say pseudo-small market because Minneapolis is not Milwaukee, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Baltimore, Tampa or Cincinnati)

Every Monday I give a quick recap of some things during the weekend that were a “love” – enjoyable, good, or entertainment – or things that were a “hate” – things that stunk, bad plays, or other things that were painful to watch.