Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Finally, the dumbest “strategy” move by a football coach backfired and cost his team the game. I abhor when coaches call a timeout one second before the snap for a game-winning field goal and make the team kick it twice. It’s a bulls#it move that shouldn’t be allowed. So it was great to see Sean Payton try that move against Atlanta only to negate a blocked field goal that would have prevented the Falcons from winning. After getting a second shot, Matt Bryant nailed the kick and the Falcons stole a game in New Orleans. Calling that timeout is like when you were a little kid and you shook hands on something but then yelled “it doesn’t count because I had my fingers crossed behind my back!!” And how long can Garrett Hartley’s NFC Championship heroics buy him in New Orleans? The Saints won in week 1 despite his missed kicks and he missed another short kick in overtime this week. If I were Hartley, I’d start boxing up the house, just in case.

- Does anyone know that baseball season is still going on? Oh, and NBA training camps are about to start. No one seems to notice or care about either sport when it’s football season. We wasted more time this week hearing about Braylon Edwards than about the pennant races. Lost in all the news this week was an incredible feat by Ichiro in Seattle – his 10^th 200-hit season. When you realize that he played his first 7 professional seasons in Japan, the streak is even more impressive. Had he played those years in the US, he might have a legit shot at Pete Rose’s all-time hit list. His ability at the plate is almost as impressive as George Clooney’s girlfriend in a bikini.

- Is there a better advertising campaign out there than the E*Trade baby? The latest commercial has him in time-out because riding the dog like a horse is frowned up – awesome. Those commercials are as good as the Redskins yellow mustard pants, and definitely better than those nasty neon orange jerseys in Miami.

HATE

- Can we finally put to rest any thoughts that Notre Dame is a legit college football team? It is blatantly obvious that the Irish are not on the level with any of the mid-level teams in the country, so why do teams get a boost in the rankings for beating them? Stanford is the latest team to dismiss the Irish with ease and were rewarded with a jump from #16 to the top 10. How does that math work? You do what you’re supposed to do – beat a vastly inferior team - and jump over other teams that did what they were supposed to do (aka Wisconsin)? It’s like the receivers that dance after a 7 yard catch – that’s your job, so stop celebrating what you’re supposed to do. That has less logic than Lindsay Lohan remaining out of prison.

- After watching Ryan Mallett flush his Heisman hopes, and Arkansas’s conference title hopes down the toilet on Saturday afternoon, two thoughts came to mind: (1) It’s been confirmed – NEVER trust a guy with a chin-strap beard, and (2) Mallett might be the next Ryan Leaf. He is a big, strong-armed guy who can throw it all over the field. Unfortunately, he is not clutch, and not very bright. If he gets angry with the media and develops an addiction to oxycontin, he could actually become Ryan Leaf. Beware Buffalo Bills – Jake Locker might not be the answer, but Mallett doesn’t look to be the solution either.

- Carmelo Anthony as the center piece of the “new” Nets under the Russian billionaire? There is a 4-team trade that may happen that would send Anthony to the Nets, assuming the Nuggets don’t get cold feet and the Nets can sign Anthony to a long-term contract. It would definitely be a shot across the bow of their neighbor Knicks if the Nets can land Anthony as their centerpiece when they move into Brooklyn in two years. If the Nets can come up with a new color scheme, new uniforms and a new name, they could actually have a shot to become the most popular team in the New York metro area. Getting Anthony would also go a long way towards improving upon their 12 wins last season.

I'm Back! NFL 2010 Preview MegaPost

Well, I guess I’m like Brett Favre and herpes….you just can’t get rid of me. It’s been ages, but with football season about to kick off it’s time to get back at it and posting regularly. This whole blog started last year with a season preview, so it’s only fitting to get back to work with a season preview/prediction column and wrap in a Degenerate Friday Week 1 picks. And while it is easy on the eyes to watch Caroline Wozniacki play in the U.S. Open, it’s football that really gets us fired up. On a side note – I’m hoping Wozniacki makes the finals because I’ll be there Saturday night. Let’s get right to it…..no gimmicks, no categories, just a full break down of how I see the NFL season playing out.

I break down the season slightly different than most people – most analysts go through and pick their Super Bowl teams and then back their way into records for every team. I go through the entire league schedule and pick every game, then totaling up what records the teams will end up having. The good part is that it doesn’t fall prey to preconceived notions and it definitely allows a tough schedule to have an effect on a team’s final record. The down side is that I end up with some surprises that I may not have made otherwise, as you’ll see with this year’s AFC playoff teams. And I still ended up with 2 new playoff teams in each conference, which is close to the typical 5 teams that surprise people.

Breaking it down by division then a playoff prediction, starting in the NFC

NFC East

Dallas (10-6)

The Cowboys have talked themselves into believing they are a Super Bowl favorite despite bringin

g back most of the team that got drubbed by the Vikings in last year’s playoffs. I expect Marion Barber to have a big season – did you know the guy played last year with a hole in his quad muscle? Think about that – a freaking HOLE in his quad!! Now that he’s healthy, he’s a battering ram that will open up the field for Miles Austin to go deep and Dez Bryant to be a monster. Their offense will be as good as any in the league and their attacking defense will be enough to carry them to the division crown.

NY Giants (9-7)

I don’t actually think the Giants are that good. Yet their schedule falls pretty nicely for them and I think they have enough pieces to be in the mix. Nobody likes Eli Manning, but the guy threw for over 4,000 yards last year and obviously has the support of his team. The NFC East is a lot like the Kardashians in that everyone thinks they’re famous and are a big deal, but stop and think about it for a minute. Kim has some incredible assets (like the Cowboys) and the rest of the family is only famous by association. By association, I guess that makes the Giants equal to Courtney, the next best in the family. And now it’s time to get to the ugly family members…..

Philadelphia (7-9)

So the equation that irrational Eagles fans are selling is Andy Reid equals a winning record. Well when you subtract McNabb and Westbrook and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, and add in a first year starter in Kevin Kolb, it changes things considerably. Kolb may turn out to be a very good quarterback, but even Aaron Rodgers struggled in his first year as a starter. I personally think Kolb does not have the dynamic fire needed to be a premiere quarterback in the league, but he does have enough physical skills to ensure the Eagles stay close.

Washington (6-10)

I saw that the Sports Guy picked the Skins as his sleeper team and has them in the playoffs. I’d like to see that just to stick it to the Eagles and their ridiculous fans. McNabb still has gas in the tank and will definitely be motivated, but he has no one to throw the ball to and the Skins are dealing with the pain in the ass that is Albert Haynesworth. New Sheriff Shanahan will eventually lead them to success, but it won’t be this year.

NFC South

New Orleans (11-5)

The Saints offense is still as dangerous as Dan Hampton on an open microphone. (The former Bear Hampton is the one that said the Vikings should hit New Orleans “like Katrina” and that the Cowboys were “brokeback cowboys” in one show – that’s a helluva performance right up there with Mel Gibson) They have a premiere quarterback, premiere coach, attacking defense and adaptable receiving and running threats. That’s enough to be there deep in the playoffs.

Atlanta (11-5)

I thought the Falcons would break out last year and they got bit by the injury bug slowing their quarterback, running back and slot receiver. This year with a healthy Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Harry Douglas, the Falcons look poised to challenge for the division title. The Falcons could be that team to makes the leap to elite and makes a deep run in the playoffs.

Carolina (8-8)

Their biggest improvement was the removal of the Human Turnover Machine, Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. However, Matt Moore will struggle now that teams can scheme to stop him. They also lost Julius Peppers and Steve Smith hasn’t played since breaking his arm. Oh, and don’t forget they have a lame duck coach that will be moving on after the season and despite the running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, this smells like a .500 team.

Tampa Bay (2-14)

The Bucs have some nice pieces in place for future success, but the immediate future looks painful.

NFC West

San Francisco (9-7)

They are the tallest midget. The NFC West is hideous, and the Niners could run away with the division by barely being over .500. They have the defense that is the fiery design of Mike Singletary and offensive weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabree. If Alex Smith can effectively use his VD and Crabs, it will open things up for Gore and a successful season.

Arizona (8-8)

This text from my brother in Phoenix pretty much summed it up in the desert: “So do I really have to get behind Derek Anderson this season? But I guess it’s better than Leinart.” Anderson has a strong arm which could be beneficial to Larry Fitzgerald, but he has problems telling the difference between his receivers and defensive backs. Having 4 cupcake games against Seattle and St. Louis allows them to stay in the hunt, but Cardinal fans should start preparing for the Max Hall era which may start after a 1-4 start and a bye week.

Seattle (4-12)

Pete Carroll was able to get out of Southern Cal before the shit hit the fan, but he managed to jump right int

o another steaming pile when he went north up the coast. He has almost completely turned over the roster which would be a good thing since the Seahawks were bad, but then when you factor in Carroll’s lack of success in past NFL stints and the overall lack of success of college coaches in the pros, it is a pretty scary proposition.

St. Louis (2-14)

Well, it does appear that Sam Bradford has many of the intangibles and that can help someday return the Rams to respectability. Unfortunately that someday is not this year. Strap on that helmet tight, Sam and live to fight another season.

NFC North

Green Bay (11-5)

The Packers have the favorite for league MVP at quarterback have a healthier offensive line to give him more

time to use his considerable arsenal of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones. The secondary will be tested early without Al Harris and Atari Bigby but they get a scheduling break playing poor or less established passing games early in the year – Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Miami. That could allow the Packers to get off to a very fast start and could carry them to the division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota (9-7)

The Vikings are dealing with plenty of questions after a very successful previous season. Can

Favre hold up? Who is going to be their receiving threat? Is their defense too old? Will the rest of the team resent the special treatment that Diva Favre has gotten? Does anyone like Coach Childress?

Hard to imagine a team going to the Super Bowl when the quarterback hates the coach and the rest of the team doesn’t like either one of them.

Detroit (5-11)

Like Blake Lively, the Lions are bursting with young assets. With the addition of Suh and VandeBosch on the defensive line, the Lions could slow a few offenses, which will give Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best the opportunity to outscore some teams. While 5-11 doesn’t seem like a big jump, when you’re in Detroit, it’s reason to celebrate.

Chicago (5-11)

Coach on the hot seat? Check. Overrated quarterback with an attitude problem? Check. Arrogant offensive coordinator with only one success in his career? Check. Overpaid for a notoriously lazy defensive lineman? Check. Get the fan base excited about signing a third down back? Check. Sounds like another crappy season in Chicago.

AFC East

New England (11-5)

The Patriots are back to where they prefer, under the radar. And Randy Moss is in a contract year, which means he has the potential for a monster year. After last season’s schedule, this year’s slate looks easier than J-Woww after a couple shots of tequila. As long as Brady can keep his Bieber hair out of his eyes, he’ll have a solid arsenal of receiving weapons. Can the Patriots stop anyone? Maybe not, but they will have the offensive firepower to outscore most teams.

NY Jets (10-6)

The Jets remind me of the Seinfeld episode about “The Race” when George pretends he hasn’t seen Jerry since high school and goes on a rant about the millions he made as an architect. Jerry’s response: “You really built yourself up into something, didn’t you?” And that is extremely applicable to the Jets. They were 9-7 last

year. They brought in a bunch of big name veterans past their prime. They got a break to even get into the playoffs. Is that enough to make them Super Bowl favorites? I don’t think so.

Miami (8-8)

The Dolphins have addressed their biggest need, which was a playmaking wide receiver who could actually, you know, catch. They got Brandon Marshall who when paired with Chad Henne give the Dolphins a very potent offense. Unfortunately they face a deadly stretch of games at GB, Pit, at Cin, at Bal, and Ten. If they go 2-3 during that stretch it would be a heck of a

n accomplishment.

Buffalo (5-11)

The Bills managed to find themselves a dynamic game changer in CJ Spiller, but unfortunately they still have Trent Edwards at QB, a leaky offensive line and a defensive line that can’t slow anyone. Could Spiller be a poor man’s Barry Sanders?

AFC South

Indianapolis (13-3)

Every year you start with Indy at 12 wins and then adjust it up or down a game or two. I ex

pect Peyton to bounce back from his Super Bowl pick-6 and be in F-U mode most of the season. Add to that the embarrassment of weapons he has at his disposal and the Colts will blast through the regular season like Justi

n Timberlake blew through the hottest women in Hollywood before settling on Jessica Biel.

Houston (11-5)

Every year people expect the Texans to break through. Every year they let

everyone down. It’s kind of like sending Lindsay Lohan to rehab – when are we finally going to give up on her putting it all together? Well, I’m giving the Texans one last chance because if they just do the simple things, they have the talent to be successful. They have a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a strong defense to go with a QB who is solid in the regular season. That should be enough with their schedule.

Tennessee (7-9)

I have no clue what to expect from this team. Two years ago they went 13-3. Last year they started 0-8 and got blasted 59-0 by the Patriots. Yet they have one of the fastest RBs in the league in Chris Johnson who expects to get 2,500 yards this season. Vince Young and his “Uncle Rico” motion isn’t pretty, but he has been able t

o lead the team to wins. Yet I don’t see this team keeping up with the elite in their division.

Jacksonville (4-12)

Can’t we just move this team to LA and get it over with? No one in Jacksonville would even notice if they were

gone. They might be the most non-descript team in the league with their only star a running back with a knee extremely close to needing a scope that will knock him out for 2-3 weeks at a minimum.

AFC West

San Diego (11-5)

I expected to have this team fall off considerably this year with a rookie bell cow running back and the loss of Vincent Jackson to a hold out. Yet their schedule is so soft, even Norv Turner can lead this team to double-digit wins.

Oakland (9-7)

The Raiders are a lot better than people think. Despite the crazy Al Davis, they have quietly put together a great offseason with the drafting of a game changing linebacker and the trade for a serviceable quarterback in Jas

on Campbell. Campbell relied heavily on his TE, Chris Cooley in Washington, which bodes well for the stats of Zach Miller this season. Look for the Raiders to surprise some people this year and be in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of the year.

Kansas City (8-8)

Thomas Jones will be key to keeping Jamaal Charles fresh, yet the Chiefs still have too many holes defensively to get over the .500 hump.

Denver (6-10)

It now seems pretty obvious that the 6-0 start last year was the aberration. Josh McDaniels put himself in the cross-hairs with his love affair with Tim Tebow, but that is dangerous considering Timmy T is not ready to be the starter. Without Brandon Marshall and with a banged up Knowshon Moreno, the offense will struggle and their defense wasn’t good to begin with.

AFC North

Cincinnati (11-5)

The Bengals boast an attacking defense and a powerful running game. And with the addition of TO, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley, Carson Palmer has run out of excuses. It’s time for his resurgence like recent pictures of Britney Spears in a bikini and utilize his assets. Despite wearing down at the end of last season, I expect the Bengals to get it done.

Pittsburgh (11-5)

This may have been my biggest surprise. I have them starting 1-3 with Dennis Dixon as the starter but the schedule for the Steelers provides a softer landing for Big Ben than landing on the chest of Salma Hayek. With a recommitment to the run, the Steelers have the ability to slug it out with anyone.

Baltimore (10-6)

I was expecting to have the Ravens in the mix for a Super Bowl birth. Unfortunately, while they improved their offensive weapons with the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and TJ Houshmandzadeh, their defensive secondary is a mess with the injuries to Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworthy. That does not bode well to compete with the receiving threats in Cincy and games at Atlanta, at Houston and at New England.

AFC Playoff Teams: (1) Colts, (2) Patriots, (3) Chargers, (4) Bengals, (WC) Texans, (WC) Steelers

NFC Playoff Teams: (1) Packers, (2) Saints, (3) Cowboys, (4) 49ers, (WC) Falcons, (WC) Vikings

hAFC Championship: Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship: Packers over Saints

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION: Green Bay Packers over Colts

Maybe I’m just a homer, but I think all the parts are there for Aaron Rodgers to establish his own legacy in Green Bay. My head says the Colts are the pick to beat the Packers, but I can’t put the Packers that close and not have them pull it off.

QUICK HITS for DEGENERATE FRIDAY – Week 1

Thursday pick: Saints (-5) over Vikings

Falcons (-2) over STEELERS – the Matt Ryan rebound begins

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS – Spiller isn’t enough

Lions (+6.5) over BEARS – Misery begins in the Windy City

GIANTS (-6.5) over Panthers – G-men get revenge on Carolina for ruining the closing of old stadium.

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bengals – Brady celebrates new contract with big opener

Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS – who cares?

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Broncos – barely more interesting than the previous suck-fest

Colts (-2) over TEXANS – Texans not quite ready for prime time

Raiders (+6) over TITANS – Raiders may not win but that spread is too big for the resurgent Raiders

Packers (-3) over EAGLES – easiest game to pick this week

49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS – welcome to the big leagues Coach Carroll

Cardinals (-4) over RAMS – someone has to win this game

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS – McNabb gets a rude welcome in DC

JETS (-2.5) over Ravens – break in the new stadium in style

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers – San Diego never starts fast

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Spent the weekend in comedy clubs in New York. Saw some great shows and great comedians – particularly Jared Girmscheid and Joe Narvaez. Both guys were extremely entertaining and put on a great show - definitely worth watching. Jared performs regularly in Chicago and Joe performs a steady schedule in New York. Check to see if and when they might be performing around you and get out and see them – you won’t be disappointed.

- This video has been going around for a while now, but it is well worth a link and the time to watch. It contains about 4,000 f-bombs from current minor league manager and former New York Met Wally Backman in an on-field altercation with an umpire. I would definitely have a beer with Wally.

- Did we just witness the soccer version of Bill Buckner in Saturday’s World Cup match between the USA and England? While right now the horrendous play by England’s goalie allowed the US to steal a tie, if both teams advance out of pool play, the goal will be remembered for comedy, and no real repercussions. The bigger issue for Team USA was the fact that the Brits peppered the US defense and goalie Tim Howard is the only reason Sam’s Army was able to come away with a point. Landon Donovan was mostly neutralized by the English defense and he will have to find a way to be more of a factor against Slovenia and Algeria. Defensively, the US did a pretty good job of keeping Wayne Rooney from doing too much damage, so there is a really strong chance he unleashed more than a few of his patented profanity tirades.

HATE

- Is there a more annoying player to watch in crunch time than Paul Pierce? I’m guessing he is a huge fan of President Obama because all he does is plow to the hoop and beg for a bail out, flopping and whining all over the place. Toughen up, dude. He flops more than anyone in the World Cup. He’s like a black European player – maybe the love child of Manu Ginobili and Jay-Z. And he’s only a half step more annoying than the Kendrick Perkins scowl and stomp away after every foul…..which happens at least once a minute when Perkins is on the floor.

- The NBA Finals 2-3-2 scheduling makes less sense than why Lindsay Lohan somehow still scores tickets to things like the MTV Music Awards. How can you justify the team with home court advantage having to fight off elimination when they have won their home games? (yes, the Lakers lost a game in LA, but won a game in Boston to get the home court advantage back) What is the rationale behind the schedule? Limiting travel? These dudes are not flying coach. The Lakers beat writer is not going to be sitting next to Big Baby Davis (aka Shrek) on an American Airlines flight from LAX to Logan. And they give the teams 2-3 days off between games without travel days, so there is no reason to use the 2-3-2.

- Want to know what bothers me more than Vince Young being the prime suspect in an assault at a strip club in Nashville? The fact that they have to refer to him as a “two-time Pro Bowl” quarterback. The guy made the pro bowl last year playing less than half of his team’s games and threw 10 touchdowns and had 10 interceptions. Yet because 10 other AFC quarterbacks were supposedly injured or still playing (Peyton Manning), the guy whose throwing motion looks like Uncle Rico from Napoleon Dynamite made another Pro Bowl.

Degenerate Friday on Thursday! Sweet 16

Before we talk basketball, a quick reminder that you get what you pay for. My wife and I had received passes to a free screening of the new Dreamworks movie “How to Train A Dragon” in Times Square. Of course, they had given out too many passes, so after waiting in line for a while, we were told the theatre was full and we were out of luck. The guy behind me starts to complain loudly that he’s super annoyed, it’s not fair and they should do something to make up for it. The guy is a roughly 40 year old black man wearing glasses with yellow lenses, who is there by himself to see a childrens movie. And he’s complaining about how he’s being treated at a FREE screening. Really, dude? At the end of the day, what are you out – 20 minutes of your time? I’m pretty sure he would have spent that time creeping like he did on the Indian girls behind him he was eavesdropping on when he interrupted to ask them “Wait – are you having trouble getting laid? I find that hard to believe.” You stay classy, New York.

Before we get to the breakdown, I’m pretty sure I need a pep talk after the shellacking I took in the second round…….yup, this should do the trick.
Game 1: #1 Syracuse (-6) vs. #5 Butler

Everyone’s favorite sleeper team in the sweet 16 is Cornell, but the team that most resembles Hickory High from Hoosiers is actually Butler. Yes, Cornell has never advanced to this round before, and yes the Ivy League does not have the athletic budgets like the major conferences. However, these are kids in the Ivy League where they don’t give out athletic scholarships or allow people to take the SATs for their recruits (like John Calipari teams….alledgedly). Cornell is full of smart kids that likely have a decent future ahead of them due to an Ivy education. So they’re not really underdogs. Butler is in the middle of nowhere Indiana, in a small conference, and not known nationally academically. They are the true underdog story.

Unfortunately, this underdog story is going to end with the loveable dog getting hit by an orange bus speeding along to the next round. Syracuse has its own underdog angle, as they do not have a single McDonald’s All-American on their roster, which is practically unheard of for a national power. They are too long, too athletic and play a defense that will fluster the Bulldogs. Wes Johnson and the Orange are more than Shelvin Mack and the Bulldogs can handle. Butler has won 22 straight games, but even their two tournament wins were against other mid-major teams (UTEP & Murray State). Their first test against a major power in the tournament will not go well.

Gambler’s Special: Syracuse (-6)

Game 2: #2 West Virginia (-4.5) vs. #11 Washington

This could be the most competitive game of the night. West Virginia lost their starting point guard (his nickname was “Truck” – not exactly flattering for a point guard, right?) but they have a replacement in Joe Mazzulla who has started in the past. However, Mazzulla is not an offense threat at all, which will allow Washington to pay more attention to De’Sean Butler and the other offensive Mountaineers. In addition, Mazzulla will be the only primary ballhandler for the Mountaineers which will be difficult giving the pressure that the Washington guards will put on the ball.

Washington is talented and underperformed early in the year which knocked expectations down. They were ranked in the low teens in most preseason rankings, and fell out after a slow start. Look for Pondexter and Thomas to carry the Huskies to the Elite Eight. When the Mountaineers fall, it’s just another example of Bob Huggins underperforming in the tournament, which means we should probably expect his tournament performance to resemble Lindsay Lohan stumbling out of a club.

Gambler’s Special: Washington (+4.5)

Game #3: #2 Kansas State (-4.5) vs. #6 Xavier

This should be the most entertaining game of the night although it will probably draw the least interest. The second-most recognized team in the sunflower state versus a team that refuses to be lumped in with the mid-majors that is led by a guy that “dunked” on LeBron James. Not exactly riveting story lines for the media to jump on. Yet the guard play at Kansas State has been extremely strong in the tournament and they are playing with some serious swagger. In addition, they can lean on the fact that they handled Xavier comfortably earlier in the season. Kansas State is forcing their way into the conversation as a contender for the national title in the same way Miley Cyrus is forcing her way into the discussion about any pop culture as she sings, acts and suddenly shows up as a guest judge on American Idol.

Xavier is familiar with this round of the tournament as this is their third straight trip to the sweet sixteen (though first with their current coach), and has major conference talent in Jordan Crawford surrounded by strong play from Terrell Holloway and Jason Love. They will not be intimidated by the moment, which should allow them to keep it close until the closing moments.

I thought Kansas State would struggle early in the tournament because of the emotional highs of their coach and their point guard, but they have shown that those emotions can be harnessed. If they continue to play like they have, they have a great shot to get past the Musketeers and the Orange en route to the Final Four.

Gambler’s Special: Kansas State (-4.5)

Game #4: #1 Kentucky (-8) vs. #12 Cornell

The media is all over this game because it pits the lowest remaining seed against the highest remaining seed and a basketball powerhouse against an academic powerhouse. Also add in the rabid Kentucky fanbase against the large Cornell alumni network in New York and near ESPN’s Bristol headquarters and you get more hype than this game really deserves. Cornell is a great story about a bunch of nerds who are good basketball players that play the game really well and have advanced further than anyone predicted. Their run very closely resembles that of Davidson in 2008, where Davidson was a very disciplined team with one deadly scorer (Stephen Curry), and took advantage of beating solid, but not very athletic teams during their run (Gonzaga, Georgetown & Wisconsin) before they ran into Kansas.

This time around, Kentucky is that team that just has too much for Cornell to handle, with 3 potential first round draft picks. John Wall will be able to handle Louis Dale defensively, and should be able to blow by him on the offensive end. Eric Bledsoe has the ability to stay with Wittman if he maintains his discipline, and DeMarcus Cousins will expose Jeff Foote as the slow, plodding center that he is. Add to that the experience and ability of Patrick Patterson and this game may not be competitive.

All the analysts want to point out that if Cornell can keep the game close late into the game, the fact that the crowd will be pro-Cornell (close to campus in Ithaca, the NY alumni contingent driving up to Syracuse from NYC, and fans rooting for the underdog) may put tremendous pressure on the young Wildcats team. But keep in mind that the Kentucky players have played in major league atmospheres all season and have dealt with the stress and pressure of an SEC tournament. This is the biggest stage these Cornell kids have ever seen. And expecting them to stay close until the closing minutes is a very large task – like asking Mischa Barton to stay off drugs. Overall to quote Joe Biden, the talent gap between Kentucky and Cornell is a “big f—king deal.”

Gambler’s Special: Kentucky (-8)

Degenerate Friday!!

UPDATE: Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Selection Sunday arrives this weekend, and that kicks off the Degenerate Christmas that is the NCAA Tournament. I guess it’s actually more like Hanukah with the multiple days of gambling gifts, but since there are actually 10 days with games, it falls right between the 8 days of Hanukah and the 12 days of Christmas. So let’s just call it the Degenerate Holiday Season!

This is actually the first weekend since I invented Degenerate Friday to start the 2009 NFL season that I am not going to make a gambling pick for the weekend. Why? Because the only real gambling options are the conference tournament championships, which will depend upon the games during the day today, so it’s not as compelling of a read later in the day. I have picked things like Olympic hockey and baseball futures in recent weeks, and two weeks ago I already made my NCAA futures best value bets, so this weekend, I am attempting to show some restraint. Save the money up for that huge wager on Thursday or Friday to take Sienna to cover the spread, Villanova to not cover the spread in their first round game, or loading up on Texas losing their first game no matter who they play. Texas started the year 17-0 and went 7-9 after that. Ouch. If you absolutely have to scratch that itch and find some sweet action this weekend? Bet on Jimmy Johnson winning the NASCAR race or find a prop bet on how many times Clark Kellogg says “tremendous athlete” or “this year’s George Mason” during the CBS selection show. Or if all else fails, head to your local Indian casino and play blackjack for a couple hours after bar time……….

Instead, just a couple quick hits get you ready for Selection Sunday, then check back next week as The Sports Addict will break down the brackets unlike anywhere else. (I actually have no idea what that means – it just sounds really dramatic and better than saying I will have a break down like Lindsay Lohan, meaning it will be crazy. I should probably be quiet before she tries to sue me for $100 million like she did with eTrade.)

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Does the Syracuse loss hurt their seeding? No, not at all. They are still among the top 4 teams in the country despite their mini slump to end the year. They will likely slide firmly into the 3rd #1 seed, which means based on the s-curve system that they will be paired with the second best #2 seed, which could be someone like Duke or West Virginia. The obvious bigger issue is the health of their center, Arinze Onuaku, who busted up his knee yesterday in the Syracuse loss to Georgetown. Their seed is secure, but their place as a lock to get to the elite eight might have taken a serious hit. Then again, they won’t need him for their first game, and if they get placed in a Friday-Sunday bracket, he will have almost 10 days to rest assuming there is not serious damage to the knee.

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While anyone that knows me knows that I am not a fan of Marquette, I have to admit that I like the effort that Buzz Williams gets from his team. They are not the most talented team, and they have a glaring lack of size, but they play with a ton of heart and have a ton of experience in close games – they lost 7 Big East games by a total of 21 points. Depending upon the matchup in the tournament, they could be a dangerous first round opponent. Will I be rooting for them? Probably not – there’s still too deep of wounds from Kevin O’Neill ruining Shannon Smith’s confidence and "Tan Tommy" Crean acting as if he created basketball and his leadership was the reason Marquette got to the Final Four (overlooking that guy Dwayne Wade, maybe you’ve heard of him?). But I’m coming around…..and maybe it’s just because of Buzz’s dancing/celebration skills……. …….
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I tried to watch a Moutain West tournament game yesterday – San Diego State against Colorado State. I really tried to watch it with an open mind, wanting to like San Diego State and have them among the teams I believe can strike a first round upset or at least a cover. Ugh, it is as painful as trying to sit through Gossip Girl when they’re focusing on Dan Humphries & Vanessa Abrams – you just want to get back to the big leagues with a scene involving Serena or Blair. The first half of the game was full of dust ups and guys posturing after every foul, and I lost interest quickly. Thankfully the game stayed close and SDSU remained disciplined enough to hold on for the victory. I don’t see them being competitive in the first round of the tournament – assuming they get in.

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I just saw a headline that Jennifer Hudson is going to sing “One Shining Moment” at the end of the tournament instead of the traditional version sang by David Barrett (up until 1994), Teddy Pendergrass (94-99) & Luther Vandross (03-09). While I have absolutely nothing against Jennifer Hudson – I respect her singing, and she’s been through a lot personally – is she really the right person? I’m not a fan of the change, but mainly because I remember being a little kid and my parents letting me stay up after the championship game ended until I saw “One Shining Moment.” I’ll reserve judgement on Hudson until I hear her version on April 5th. If this video doesn’t get you ready for the tournament – I don’t know what will. (check out the sweater Lou Carnesecca sports at the 42 second mark)

UNLV 1990 One Shining Moment Movies & TV SPIKE.com

Degenerate Friday!! NCAA Tourney

A couple quick hits before this week’s gambling tip. First, the most dangerous thing in New York right now? Trees. Another N’oreaster storm hit the city yesterday (and today), with a ton of wet, heavy snow which sticks to the tree branches and creates a really pretty winter wonderland scene in Central Park. Really pretty until those branches can’t handle the weight of the snow and start crashing down. One of those falling branches hit and killed a guy yesterday. I can’t think of too many worse ways to go – that’s brutal.

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Supposedly there is a feud between US Olympic skiiers Lindsey Vonn and Julia Mancuso and it boiled over when Vonn crashed on her run earlier this week. The crash caused them to restart Mancuso’s run (which had started while Vonn was still on the course), and she had to rerun after waiting for the rest of the field to run and the course conditions deteriorated. Mancuso also made some comments in Sports Illustrated about how the team is struggling because everyone is struggling for attention and that Vonn was basically being a diva. Are we really surprised that Mancuso would feel some jealousy toward her teammate who didn’t win medals in Torino in 2006 yet snagged an SI cover photo, was part of the swimsuit issue and then snared all the headlines with her shin injury drama? That attention turns into endorsements, which means money. And for Olympic athletes (other than the pros in basketball or hockey), making a name for themselves and getting endorsements is their best chance to rake in the dough.

Mancuso has been very successful – two silvers in this year’s games, and another chance hurt by Vonn’s fall – and she is also very talented in the beauty department. And so maybe hinting at a catfight is a ploy to get some attention turned on her as well as Lindsey. Personally? I’m a fan of Mancuso over Vonn. Vonn is a fame-monger and a drama queen who seems to share the same attitude of Bode Miller, whom I have very little respect for.

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I thought about just rerunning last week’s degenerate column and pick the USA to win the gold medal game this weekend. Yet I actually think the US team will have a tough time beating Finland in the semifinal round today. It has all of the set up for a let-down game for the US, where they are looking forward to the gold medal game and take the Fins lightly. The loss to the US also served as a wake-up call for the Canadians who took out their frustration on the Russians and will be ready for whoever makes the final game. Look for the Canadians to win the hockey gold to go with their golds in men’s and women’s curling. Although the Canadians haven’t owned the podium like they claimed they would, if they win hockey and curling gold, they can at least know that their position in the world is secure.

Speaking of curling, there is quite a bit of buzz around the captain of the women’s team, Cheryl Bernard. The 43 year old cougar has taken the country by storm and said she can’t even go to the grocery store without being mobbed for autographs.

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Finally, let’s get to the gambling!! This week, let’s take a look at the odds to win the NCAA tournament, as selection Sunday is March 14th – only 2 weeks away. Since many employers may block the links to bodog, here’s a quick list of the odds for some of the favorites:

Kansas – 2/1
Kentucky – 4/1
Syracuse – 5/1
Villanova – 8/1
Texas – 13/1
Duke – 14/1
Purdue – 15/1
Ohio State – 15/1
Michigan State – 18/1
West Virginia – 18/1
Kansas State – 25/1
Georgetown – 32/1
Wisconsin – 45/1
Tennessee – 50/1
California – 60/1

If we are going to place some hard earned bling down on a team – even if it is previous gambling winnings, you worked hard to pick that win – we want it to be the best value. Therefore, getting less than 5/1 odds is not attractive. Kansas and Kentucky get eliminated. The next requirement is that the team has to have the ability to win and it would not be a huge shocker to see them cutting down the nets. That takes out Duke, Kansas State and West Virginia. And finally, they can’t play in a conference that resembles a toilet bowl – full of turds. That takes out California and really, any team west of the Rocky Mountains (BYU & New Mexico). Let’s look at the best bets among the favorites , the pick, and the best long-shot value.

Quick Aside – before this week’s games, Purdue would have been my pick. They have a veteran point guard (Chris Kramer – Purdue always has these junkyard dog guys – Kramer, Brian Cardinal, Matt Painter), dynamic scorer (E’Twaun Moore), big man (JuJuan Johnson), shooter (Robbie Hummel), bench scoring (Keaton Grant) and defense tighter than the Hannah Storm’s outfits on ESPN. (ESPN can’t suspend me like they did with Tony Kornheiser, right? I’m allowed to say that I’m all for Hannah and her hooker boots and that Chris Berman is a fat, arrogant blowhard. I can say that, right?) Losing Hummel for the season to an ACL injury changes all of that – he was their all-around guy, who rebounded well and defended well in addition to his shooting. If Coach Painter can rally his guys, they still have the talent to make noise, but I don’t see them getting past the sweet 16.

The Favorite

Villanova (8/1)
Jay Wright’s Wildcats have the talent and depth to win the title. They have the veteran guard play with Scottie Reynolds to keep the team under control, which I think separates them from a team like Kentucky, who may have more talent from top to bottom. ESPN is currently running a promo for their gameday this weekend and a special on Villanova and “why Scottie Reynolds chose to come back for his senior year” – is this really a question? The reason he came back was that he is destined to be the next Troy Bell or Shawn Respert!! A prolific scoring guard in college that is not big enough to play shooting guard at the next level and not a good enough ball handler or passer to make the shift to point guard. But he is built perfectly to get hot in the tournament and lead his team to the championship. Shooting guard Corey Stokes was busted for public urination last week which may affect his status for the game against Syracuse, but shouldn’t affect the team long term. Kind of like when Hildo was busted for public urination ON Science Hall in Madison – it affected our trip to Qdoba (at that time named Z-Teca?), but didn’t affect our drinking the next night.

The Long Shot

Georgetown (32/1)
They have many of the key elements that it takes to win the title: disciplined coach, strong defense, and a big man that can take over games and get his own shot in Greg Monroe. Add to it the tough schedule they have played going through the Big East and their non-conference destruction of Duke, and you have a team that is very capable of holding up the trophy in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The key for the Hoyas may be how they finish the season and the seeding they get because while they have some marquee wins like Duke and Villanova, they have some bad losses like South Florida and Rutgers. They lack a consistent threat from the outside, which causes them to have scoring droughts and keeps lesser teams in the game.

The Pick

Ohio State (15/1)
They offer the best value, play strong defense, have a serviceable big man (Dallas Lauderdale), a shooter (Jon Diebler), and the best player in the game in Evan Turner. The biggest chink in their armor is that they don’t have the depth of a team like Kansas. The runner-up for this pick was Michigan State, who has the depth, defense and coach. But the defining factor was Evan Turner is tremendously better than Kalin Lucas when you match up the star players. My other fear about the Buckeyes is that they are pulling a Lindsay Lohan and have peaked a little too early (meaning: right now), so there is a fear that by the time the tourney rolls around, the Buckeyes will have transformed from young, hot Lindsay to the drug-addled, cutting scarred, sun-damaged Lindsay trying to rely on her cleavage (her Evan Turner) to carry her. Wow, I’m rethinking my pick after typing that sentence, as I don’t really want to be betting on Lindsay Lohan. Yet, I’m going to stick with my pick because I see Ohio State more like Gwen Stefani, who we thought peaked as a part of No Doubt, but has actually become stronger and can carry a concert by herself. And while she still has her Evan Turner (her abs) to carry her, the rest of her has come along very nicely.

Degenerate Friday!! Week 15 - Overexposed Celebrities

I don’t even know what to say about the Chris Henry situation. It’s such a tragedy for a guy who could not handle the fame and success early in his life, constantly putting himself in bad situations. However it appeared that he had finally turned a corner and had his life headed in the right direction. He leaves behind his fiancé (who obviously will be a mental wreck for the foreseeable future) and 3 young kids.

So let’s move on to happier things, like week 15 in the NFL or my picks from last week. Well, 8-7-1 is not exactly anything to celebrate, but it’s an improvement from the previous couple weeks. This week’s games are broken down into categories based on overexposed celebrities from the past year……and I left out plenty of them.

Standard disclosures as always: recreational use only, spreads from the NY Post, home teams in CAPS, etc.

The Gosselins Category
Before Tiger and Elin’s failing marriage, most of 2009 was focused on the collapse of the Jon and Kate Gosselin. For some reason, the media couldn’t get enough of the media-whoring couple with Kate getting a makeover to enhance her on-screen appearance and Jon believing that he was a celebrity. In the end, it’s just a poor situation for the unfortunate 8 kids. At least the porky Jon still has his Ed Hardy t-shirts and shades to make him feel famous. These games are bad matchups (like the Gosselins) and like their finally cancelled show, no one is paying attention to them.

Browns (+1.5) over CHIEFS
I’m fearful of the Browns having a letdown (first time that has ever been said?) after their emotional win over the Steelers. However, Brady Quinn is trying to prove that he can be a viable NFL quarterback (he can) and Eric Mangini is trying to audition for his next job since Mike Holmgren is going to fire him. The Chiefs are terrible and have to be wondering if they made a “Scott Mitchell” sized mistake in signing Matt Cassell to a long-term deal.

Texans (No Line) over RAMS
This game could not be much less interesting. I think Keith Null is starting at quarterback again for the Rams, so that’s enough for me to take the Texans and Andre Johnson to blow them out.

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Buccaneers
The Seahawks have been better at home this season, and the Bucs are getting in position to draft Ndamukong Suh with the top pick. The Seahawks will latch on to a couple of these late season wins over bad teams as a reason for a hopeful future the same way Jon Gosselin believed hanging out with Michael Lohan made him famous.

The Tom Cruise & Katie Holmes Category
They’ve been a strange fascination for the country ever since Tom jumped on Oprah’s couch. The couple has always had a strange vibe to them, as if Tom had brainwashed Katie and she had become his Stepford Wife. And once they brought Suri into the mix, the tabloids were always around as Katie tried to show how normal the family was. The couple is a mismatch from both a looks and a talent standpoint. Tom is the more talented professional with a long line of successful movies and Katie’s highlight was Dawson’s Creek. However, Katie is far and away the one blessed with the looks. In this matchup, it’s easy to root for one of them, and it’s not Tom Cruise. And can we please stop with the ridiculous blended names? Brangelina? TomKat? Enough. These games are bad match-ups as well, with one playoff-bound team against a team from the bottom of the league.

Patriots (-7) over BILLS
The Patriots haven’t won on the road yet this season (London against the pathetic Bucs doesn’t count), and the Bills should have beat the Patriots in Gillette Stadium in Week 1. So why would I want to lay 7 to these plucky Bills? Because the Pats running game is better than people realize (118+ yds/game) and the Bills run defense is awful – worst in the league. Brady won’t even need Moss this week.

Cardinals (-12) over LIONS
Arizona will rebound from from their turnover-fest against the Niners and will destroy the Lions who are likely playing without Kevin Smith or Matthew Stafford. This game could end up being as boring as Vanilla Sky.

EAGLES (-9) over 49ers
The Niners are traveling to the east coast on a short week after an emotional Monday night win and have an early start time. The 1:00 start in Philly is 10:00 for the mental clocks of San Francisco. Add in the fact that the Eagles are more talented and this seems like it’s gold, Jerry. Gold. The Eagles dynamic offense will continue to stack up huge yards and points, distancing themselves in the NFC East.

Vikings (-9) over PANTHERS
A win in this game will lock up the division for the Vikings, and if the Saints slip up against the Cowboys on Saturday night, they will still have a shot at home field advantage. Either way, their defense will be able to slow the running game of the Panthers, meaning Carolina will be relying on Matt Moore. Enough said.

The Jessica Simpson Category
When was the last time she came out with an album? September 2008, and it was a country album. Yet she has been on the cover of every weekly rag mag – US Weekly, OK!, People, etc – 3,432,917 times during 2009. She’s dating John Mayer, now she’s not. She’s dating Tony Romo, and now she’s not. She put a curse on Tony Romo. Now she’s even been linked to Tiger. Enough already – yes, we enjoy your “talents” but we don’t care that you can’t find love. You probably had it with Nick Lachey and you let your crazy father run your life and career into the ground. We want to root for you, Jess, we do. But you just need to lay low, stay out of the headlines and focus on singing, it’s the only thing other than filling out a dress you do really well.

JETS (-6) over Falcons
The Falcons will likely still be without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, which will make it a challenge against the top-ranked Jets defense. The Falcons will also be leaving the friendly confines of a dome for the cold weather at the Meadowlands, where temps are expected to be in the 20’s.

Packers (+2) over STEELERS
The Steelers have blown their shot at the playoffs, and if the Browns defense could dominate their offensive line, the Packers dynamic defense will destroy them. Without Troy Polamalu in the secondary, the Steelers pass defense has been very average, which does not bode well with Aaron Rodgers playing extremely well. If Green Bay can establish the run early, they should be able to keep their strong grip on the #5 seed in the NFC.

Dolphins (+3) over TITANS
This was the second-hardest game to pick this week. The Titans are still playing hard and playing as well as anyone in the league. However, the Dolphins are the more desperate team as they fight for the final playoff spot in the AFC. With Vince Young likely out and Kerry Collins back at the helm, the Dolphins can put all of their focus on containing Chris Johnson, which should be enough to get it done for Miami.

RAVENS (-11) over Bears
Baltimore took out quite a few frustrations on Detroit last week, and now they get another subpar team to pound on. They need every win to get themselves into the playoffs and they will come out and show they want it against Chicago. The Bears have laid some big eggs this year, getting blown out Cincy, Arizona & Minnesota. This one could be uglier than Jessica Simpson in those strange high-waisted pants.

Giants (-3) over REDSKINS
The Giants have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. Despite their defense playing awful and the Redskins offense playing better, New York will be ready to rally. Big Blue still has the 4th best rushing offense in the NFC and combined with their big receivers, Eli should be able to orchestrate some points. Redskins at least got the Monday night focus off of their pitiful season and on to their coaching search. Gruden has supposedly turned down Bruce Allen already and it looks like Mike Shanahan will bring his awkwardly tanned face to the sidelines in Washington next year.

The Lindsay Lohan Category
She has been an actress since she was a little girl and was thrust into the spotlight as an attractive young woman. Someone then introduced her to booze and coke, which it turns out was a bad decision. Amazingly that has not worked out very well for her career or her looks. She’s 23 years old, but has the face of a 50 year old. And yet, despite her being a train wreck, you feel bad, but at the same time, it’s entertaining to try and see what she does next. These games are the only games this week between teams that would currently be in the playoffs if they started today.

SAINTS (-7) over Cowboys
The Superdome will be rocking as the Saints saw the Colts get to 14-0, and now have their chance to match. The Saints offense will be able to slice through the Ware-less Cowboys defense and put plenty of points on the board. The Cowboys have not fared well in December yet again, but this year, it’s more the schedule than the lack of execution by the Cowboys. If the Cowboys bring their “Lindsay Lohan on the cover of GQ in 2004” game to the field on Saturday night, they have a chance to pull the upset and make a national statement. Yet, Wade Phillips is the cocaine that turns Lindsay from 2004 to 2010. Sorry Dallas, it is the year of the Saints……well, except for Letterman, Steve Phillips, Tiger Woods, Mark Sanford, John Edwards, LeAnn Rimes & Eddie Cibrian.

Bengals (+6.5) over CHARGERS
This was the hardest game of the week to pick, as the Chargers are on fire, but the Bengals now have the emotional motivation of the Chris Henry tragedy. The Bengals are talented and with the extra emotion involved, should come out to play this game in honor of their late teammate. The Chargers are the better team and will beat the Bengals if they see them in the playoffs, but on this day at this time, they don’t have as much to play for.