Breaking Down the NBA Finals

A quick story before getting to the NBA Finals breakdown……sitting outside having a beer at Barnacle Billy’s in Perkin’s Cove, Maine this past weekend, and the Maine version of Frank Sinatra in Vegas rolls in. He was in his mid-70’s, and looked like a pumpkin on stilts (as round as could be) with white hair and big sunglasses on. As he makes his way out to his table on the deck, every worker and regular at the place knows him, shakes his hand and they trade good natured barbs. The waitress asks about “the usual” and returns with a martini on the rocks in a plastic cup with a side glass of ice and the olives on top of the ice. The guy then proceeds to basically put on a one-man comedy show for anyone within earshot. My favorite story: “You know you get smarter when you drink, right? Well I get better at math when I drink, and last night at the bar I saw that Demi Moore and her younger boyfriend on television. So I quickly did the math and determined that if I want me a cougar like that, she’ll have to be 94 years old! A 94 year old might need oxygen to keep up with me. So maybe I should trade her in for two 47 year olds. But then I’d be the one who would need the oxygen!”

Anyway, this year’s Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals matchup has the potential to be one of the great finals matchups in a really long time. In addition to the whole traditional rivalry and supposed hatred between the fan bases (who cares? 90% of us don’t live in either city so we don’t care if Sully in Southie really hates the Lakers when he’s watching the game at O’Malley’s Pub). The reason is that these teams have a tremendous amount of star power, are playing extremely well, and have coaches that have been nearly flawless this post season. All of the starting 10 players, plus a couple of bench players (Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, etc) are legit So with that said, let’s break it down by position:

PG: Rajon Rondo (Celtics) vs. Derek Fisher (Lakers)
Rondo has cranked it up again in the playoffs proving that the most obvious trait he picked up from playing with the Big 3 was how to cruise through the regular season without too much effort. Fisher stood a chance defensively against the Suns and Steve Nash, but Rondo presents problems the same way Russell Westbrook did in the opening round against the Thunder. And since the Lakers don’t want to wear out Kobe chasing Ray Allen around on the defensive end, Kobe will likely draw Rondo. Fisher has been incredibly reliable during the playoffs this year and has the faith of Kobe and Phil Jackson to take big shots if Kobe is jammed up. Rondo has the potential to be the MVP over the entire series, but Fisher has the potential to hit a game winner or two. It’s a young, unpredictable star like Miley Cyrus that has the potential to drive you crazy but also can fill an arena. EDGE: Celtics

SG: Kobe Bryant (Lakers) vs. Ray Allen (Celtics)
While there is no comparing Bryant and Allen on an absolute level, each brings an amazing legacy as one of the best at their chosen aspect of the game. For Kobe, it’s being the best closer in the game today, and with this title, he has the potential to enter the discussion among the top 3-5 guards of all-time. Allen is one of the best pure shooters in the game and has evolved into as clutch and deadly in the post season as Reggie Miller was in his prime. Kobe wants to avenge the 2008 loss and move himself another notch closer to Jordan’s 6 titles. He is by far the best player in the series and has proven that even though everyone is so enamored with LeBron James and his next employer, Kobe is the best player in the game. If the Lakers win, it will be because Bryant carries them again.

Allen will likely be the key to the Celtics offense in this series. With Bryant slowing Rondo, Artest stopping Pierce (along with Pierce expending too much energy guarding Bryant), and Gasol shutting down Garnett, the offensive burden will fall to Allen. He is very capable of carrying that torch, but he has had a few cold streaks in the playoffs, including the early rounds of the 2008 playoffs. At the end of the day, Bryant is like Brooklyn Decker – it doesn’t matter if she’s doing cartwheels or posing by the ocean, the talent is undeniable. EDGE: Lakers

SF: Paul Pierce (Celtics) vs. Ron Artest (Lakers)
Ron Artest has truly become the modern day Dennis Rodman, without the cross-dressing. He is quirky, a unique personality, and even his own fans recoil in horror any time he lines up a shot outside of the paint. You have no idea what he’s going to do other than play complete lock down defense and rebound. And that is all the Lakers need him to do.

Paul Pierce was dubbed the greatest pure scorer in Celtics history by Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe and yet my brother and I had a discussion the other night whether he truly is a Hall of Famer. Is he underappreciated outside of Boston or overappreciated inside of Boston? Is he a compiler? He has had some great stretches in the playoffs where he has completely taken over a game, but he has never been a dominant scorer for an entire season (with the possible exception of 2001-02). His defense is solid, as evidenced by him slowing down LeBron just enough in 2008 and this year. But does he do any one thing great? His outside shot has improved over the years, but is far from reliable. His post game is adequate. He is an average rebounder. I like his game and believe that he WILL be a Hall of Famer, but the question is whether he should be a lock. While he is overdramaticIf he wins his second title this season, it does elevate him to another tier. EDGE: Celtics

PF: Pau Gasol (Lakers) vs. Kevin Garnett (Celtics)
Garnett is among the greatest power forwards to ever play the game (I rank him 3rd behind Tim Duncan and Elgin Baylor but ahead of Charles Barkley and Karl Malone), but he is running on fumes and one leg at this point of his career. He has adequately adjusted his game to be comfortable not being the focal point of the offense and remains the defensive and emotional leader of the team. He demands effort from his teammates and the Boston crowd with his primal screams or profanity-laced tirades. Yet he is overmatched against the younger Gasol who is just as comfortable defending Garnett’s mid range jumper or his post moves. Add in Gasol’s ability to pass and fill the lane on the break and he might be the second-best player in the series. If you were on the playground and choosing up teams, Bryant would be the first pick and Gasol would likely be next. (Followed by Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Odom, Artest, Perkins, Wallace and Fisher). Gasol is the hot foreign import that revitalized the team with the well-rounded game – kind of like the addition of Mandy Drury on CNBC. EDGE: Lakers

C: Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) vs. Andrew Bynum (Lakers)
Perkins is a very solid low-post defender and capable rebounder. Bynum is athletic and would present a tough matchup for Perkins if he were healthy. Yet he’s not healthy. Neither player will be the difference maker and it’s possible that Bynum won’t be able to play through the full series. Perkins also may miss time because even his coach expects him to pick up another technical which will put him at 7 during the playoffs which warrants a one-game suspension. This is like deciding whether Lilly is more important to How I Met Your Mother than Phoebe was to Friends – both have their moments, but the shows could carry on effectively without either one. EDGE: Celtics

Bench Players
The Celtics bring in the cavalry to bang inside with Big Baby Davis and Rasheed Wallace and could potentially get a defensive option against Kobe in Tony Allen. The Lakers bring the most versatile yet most inconsistent player on either team in Lamar Odom. After Odom the Lakers bench is fairly weak – Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. Yet, when Odom is on a sugar high, he has the ability to be a match up nightmare for the Celtics and could be the difference in a game or two. He is like Carrie Underwood – he disappears for a while and you don’t think about him, but when he shows up, he reminds you that he has the complete package. EDGE: Lakers

Coaching
This edge is less of a surprise than the horrendous reviews that Sex In The City 2 has gotten. The greatest coach of all time versus a guy that was almost run out of town 3 years ago before Danny Ainge went the desperation route because his job was on the line as well. Doc Rivers has done a good job of keeping his veterans happy while the young Rondo takes the reins of the offense and he has a great defensive assistant coach (who will likely be a head coach next season). Yet he can’t compare to the Zen Master, who has already begun the mind games with his comments about Kevin Garnett. EDGE: Lakers

THE PICK
The Lakers will struggle to score consistently against the Celtics stingy defense and will need Lamar Odom to keep an extra bag of Skittles in his sock at all times. The Celtics offense will also struggle because the Lakers match up well with everyone except Ray Allen (Kobe on Rondo, Artest on Pierce & Gasol on Garnett). Can Allen continue his hot shooting and carry the Celtics to the title? I expect a tough series that is very evenly matched. And when the series is this evenly matched, what are the deciding factors? Who has the best player? Who has home court advantage? Is there a revenge factor? All of those answers are the Lakers. THE PICK: LAKERS IN SEVEN GAMES

Degenerate Friday - On Thursday! NBA Playoffs - West

The NBA playoffs begin this weekend, so let’s break down the each conference, starting in the West because my brain is still in California. The biggest difference between being in California and New York – aside from the weather? The driving. Out west for an entire week, and I never heard a single car horn honk. They don’t use them at all. In New York? The horn is a way for cabs to let the pedestrians know he is about to mow them down. It is a way to let people know they can’t just stop in the middle of the road. And it is a way to let cars know they haven’t jumped on their gas pedal 0.2 seconds after the light turned green. The other difference while driving is that in California, the people wave with all of their fingers when they’re allowing you to merge in front of their Toyota Prius, Lexus Hybrid, or 1987 Mercedes (no snow means no salt which means no rust on the cars so there are an inordinate number of 20+ year old cars that are not collectors cars yet still in great condition). And instead of the “Jersey Special” cars – white cars with ultra black tinted windows, there were the “Low-Rider Special” cars – pick-up trucks dropped down low over 24 inch chrome rims with Spanish writing across the top of the windshield.

Anyway, let’s get to the Western Conference…….(odds from lasvegassportsbetting.com)

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder

Lakers odds: 2/3 to win the West, 5/2 to win the NBA Championship
Thunder odds: 20/1 to win the West, 40/1 to win the NBA Championship

This series has all the makings of Michael Jordan and the Bulls going up against the Celtics in 1986. That was the series where Jordan put up 63 in the double overtime game and produced that memorable clip where he crossed over between his legs multiple times before hitting the fade away jumper on Larry Bird. Kevin Durant will be playing the role of Jordan, and the defending champion Lakers will be playing the role of the 1985 (and eventual 1986) champion Celtics. The Thunder have an incredible young nucleus but their lack of playoff experience will be exploited by Phil Jackson and his veteran team. Like a match up of Miley Cyrus against Jennifer Aniston – you appreciate the young and vigor of Cyrus and know that she will likely have her day as a champion eventually, but not right now. Right now, it’s still a league that is dominated by a veteran like Aniston even if she has picked up a few scars along the way. The Lakers have showed some signs of tiring as the season wound down, but they may have just began to coast sooner than the rest of the league. They still have the inside game of Pau Gasol and they have the most clutch player in the entire league in Kobe Bryant.

Unfortunately for gambling purposes, the Lakers are not a great value bet either to win the conference or to win the title. However, as much as I want to find a team that can beat the Lakers, I really can’t see it happening until the Finals. I guess sometimes it’s better to get the bet correct than it is to get the best value (see, I’ve learned from the NCAA tournament)

First Round Pick: Lakers in 5 games

#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs

Mavericks odds: 6/1 to win the West, 12/1 to win the NBA Title
Spurs odds: 9/1 to win the West, 20/1 to win the NBA Title

The Mavs reloaded with the trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which has revitalized the team and given them a great shot. The best comparison I can think of for the Mavs is Kim Kardashian – she had an attractive face and a great body, so she just added a little talent to the front court and she’s ready to compete with anyone. The Mavs added a little to their front court with Haywood and Butler and they present the biggest challenge to the Lakers in the West. They also still have one of the best scorers in the league in Dirk Nowitzki who will pose match-up problems for the Spurs. The Mavs have the diverse scoring options which should be enough to exploit the strong defense fo the Spurs, carrying them into the second round.

The Spurs still have the experience and heart of a champion, but they are on their last legs. The addition of younger players like Richard Jefferson and rookie DeJuan Blair was basically like Harrison Ford getting his ear pierced. He thinks it makes him look younger and more hip, but in reality, it just shows even more that he is old and past his prime. Like the Spurs, he was great in his day – among the best ever – but that day has passed. The Spurs can still play defense, as evidenced by them allowing the second-fewest points per game in the Western conference and holding teams to the lowest field goal percentage in the West. That will allow them to keep the series close, but they are an aging fighter with a few good punches left in their arsenal. Maybe a better comparison for the Spurs would be Sylvester Stallone rather than Harrison Ford.

For gambling purposes, the Mavs are a pretty good buy to win the West, as they have the talent and momentum to do battle with the Lakers. They have experience and talent at the key positions to match up with the defending champs. However, just like in 2006 when the refs gave Dwayne Wade the benefit of every single call the entire series, they don’t have the biggest superstars who will get the calls down the stretch. Dirk is a star, but will not get the benefits that Kobe, Carmelo, Wade or LeBron will.

First Round Prediction: Mavericks in 6 games

#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers

Suns odds: 15/1 to win the West, 25/1 to win the NBA title
Trailblazers odds: 25/1 to win the West, 45/1 to win the NBA title

The Suns Jared Dudley has always been an idiot, dating back to his days as a spaz at Boston College. Well, some things never change. He commented this week that he wanted to play the Blazers because of the Brandon Roy injury. Why would he want to give the Blazers locker room material? Because he’s an idiot. Thankfully for the Suns, they still have Steve Nash playing as well as he has in his entire career and Amare Stoudemire has decided to put his contract worries aside and get back to playing basketball. The Suns are like Heidi Montag – their plastic surgery was removing Terry Porter as coach – so they fit the profile of a strong contender, but like Heidi’s flaw of her messed up self image, the Suns have a fatal flaw which is a lack of defense. The NBA playoffs slow the game down and teams have to grind it out by playing defense and half court offense. That’s where the Suns fail.

The Blazers with a healthy Brandon Roy would have been very well positioned to win this series. However, without Roy – even if he plays, he is not going to have the same explosiveness – the Blazers will not be able to keep up. The Blazers are also defensively challenged despite the fact that they allowed the fewest points per game in the western conference. They allowed the highest opponent field goal percentage of any playoff team in the West, meaning they slow the game down (they score the second fewest points in the west), but give up too many easy or open looks. That will be a problem against the Suns, especially since they won’t have a full version of their best scoring option. Like Kate Hudson, who supposedly had a boob job recently, you wanted to root for her but the surgery makes you rethink whether she has some major issues.

There’s nothing to see here from a gambling perspective. Neither of these teams will be able to advance past the Conference Finals at best.

First Round Prediction: Suns in 6 games

#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz

Nuggets odds: 6/1 to win the West, 12/1 to win the NBA title
Jazz odds: 8/1 to win the West, 20/1 to win the NBA title

The Nuggets have the superstar in Carmelo Anthony that is needed to succeed in the NBA playoffs. They have the motivation of playing for their cancer-stricken coach, George Karl. They have talent across the board. Yet there is just something generally unlikeable about this team. Is it because of Kenyon Martin? Is it that although the Birdman, Chris Anderson, has a game you can like, he looks like a complete idiot? Or is it Carmelo Anthony himself? As good as Anthony is, he comes across as a pouting, immature player who can’t quite raise his game when the team needs him the most. They resemble Ashley Dupre, the infamous hooker that was caught up in the Eliot Spitzer scandal. As much as she tries to rehab her image with help from the NY Post, she’s still a former (maybe still current?) call girl who just recently posed in Playboy. Just like as much as Carmelo rehabs his image, he’s still the same guy who got busted with weed and made the video telling kids not to be a snitch.

The Jazz and Jerry Sloan continue to cruise along as one of the better teams in the league that no one really talks about. Is there a better coach out there than Jerry Sloan? He has made the transition from Karl Malone and John Stockton to a team led by Derron Williams and has remained among the better teams in the competitive Western Conference. Like Ed Norton, you never think of him first among the best actors out there, but look at his filmography and you can’t help but be impressed. The Jazz play fundamentally sound basketball which is why this first round match-up is among the most difficult to predict. They have the talent and discipline combined with Sloan’s coaching to make a really deep run in the West, but will that be enough to overcome the talent of the Nuggets?

I’m going to take another lesson from my NCAA spanking, and not go against a team just because I don’t like them. I’m going to put money on the Nuggets using the motivation of their ailing coach to come together with their talent across the board. I think they are the gambling pick to win the Western Conference.

First Round Prediction: Nuggets in 7 games

Degenerate Friday on Thursday! Sweet 16

Before we talk basketball, a quick reminder that you get what you pay for. My wife and I had received passes to a free screening of the new Dreamworks movie “How to Train A Dragon” in Times Square. Of course, they had given out too many passes, so after waiting in line for a while, we were told the theatre was full and we were out of luck. The guy behind me starts to complain loudly that he’s super annoyed, it’s not fair and they should do something to make up for it. The guy is a roughly 40 year old black man wearing glasses with yellow lenses, who is there by himself to see a childrens movie. And he’s complaining about how he’s being treated at a FREE screening. Really, dude? At the end of the day, what are you out – 20 minutes of your time? I’m pretty sure he would have spent that time creeping like he did on the Indian girls behind him he was eavesdropping on when he interrupted to ask them “Wait – are you having trouble getting laid? I find that hard to believe.” You stay classy, New York.

Before we get to the breakdown, I’m pretty sure I need a pep talk after the shellacking I took in the second round…….yup, this should do the trick.
Game 1: #1 Syracuse (-6) vs. #5 Butler

Everyone’s favorite sleeper team in the sweet 16 is Cornell, but the team that most resembles Hickory High from Hoosiers is actually Butler. Yes, Cornell has never advanced to this round before, and yes the Ivy League does not have the athletic budgets like the major conferences. However, these are kids in the Ivy League where they don’t give out athletic scholarships or allow people to take the SATs for their recruits (like John Calipari teams….alledgedly). Cornell is full of smart kids that likely have a decent future ahead of them due to an Ivy education. So they’re not really underdogs. Butler is in the middle of nowhere Indiana, in a small conference, and not known nationally academically. They are the true underdog story.

Unfortunately, this underdog story is going to end with the loveable dog getting hit by an orange bus speeding along to the next round. Syracuse has its own underdog angle, as they do not have a single McDonald’s All-American on their roster, which is practically unheard of for a national power. They are too long, too athletic and play a defense that will fluster the Bulldogs. Wes Johnson and the Orange are more than Shelvin Mack and the Bulldogs can handle. Butler has won 22 straight games, but even their two tournament wins were against other mid-major teams (UTEP & Murray State). Their first test against a major power in the tournament will not go well.

Gambler’s Special: Syracuse (-6)

Game 2: #2 West Virginia (-4.5) vs. #11 Washington

This could be the most competitive game of the night. West Virginia lost their starting point guard (his nickname was “Truck” – not exactly flattering for a point guard, right?) but they have a replacement in Joe Mazzulla who has started in the past. However, Mazzulla is not an offense threat at all, which will allow Washington to pay more attention to De’Sean Butler and the other offensive Mountaineers. In addition, Mazzulla will be the only primary ballhandler for the Mountaineers which will be difficult giving the pressure that the Washington guards will put on the ball.

Washington is talented and underperformed early in the year which knocked expectations down. They were ranked in the low teens in most preseason rankings, and fell out after a slow start. Look for Pondexter and Thomas to carry the Huskies to the Elite Eight. When the Mountaineers fall, it’s just another example of Bob Huggins underperforming in the tournament, which means we should probably expect his tournament performance to resemble Lindsay Lohan stumbling out of a club.

Gambler’s Special: Washington (+4.5)

Game #3: #2 Kansas State (-4.5) vs. #6 Xavier

This should be the most entertaining game of the night although it will probably draw the least interest. The second-most recognized team in the sunflower state versus a team that refuses to be lumped in with the mid-majors that is led by a guy that “dunked” on LeBron James. Not exactly riveting story lines for the media to jump on. Yet the guard play at Kansas State has been extremely strong in the tournament and they are playing with some serious swagger. In addition, they can lean on the fact that they handled Xavier comfortably earlier in the season. Kansas State is forcing their way into the conversation as a contender for the national title in the same way Miley Cyrus is forcing her way into the discussion about any pop culture as she sings, acts and suddenly shows up as a guest judge on American Idol.

Xavier is familiar with this round of the tournament as this is their third straight trip to the sweet sixteen (though first with their current coach), and has major conference talent in Jordan Crawford surrounded by strong play from Terrell Holloway and Jason Love. They will not be intimidated by the moment, which should allow them to keep it close until the closing moments.

I thought Kansas State would struggle early in the tournament because of the emotional highs of their coach and their point guard, but they have shown that those emotions can be harnessed. If they continue to play like they have, they have a great shot to get past the Musketeers and the Orange en route to the Final Four.

Gambler’s Special: Kansas State (-4.5)

Game #4: #1 Kentucky (-8) vs. #12 Cornell

The media is all over this game because it pits the lowest remaining seed against the highest remaining seed and a basketball powerhouse against an academic powerhouse. Also add in the rabid Kentucky fanbase against the large Cornell alumni network in New York and near ESPN’s Bristol headquarters and you get more hype than this game really deserves. Cornell is a great story about a bunch of nerds who are good basketball players that play the game really well and have advanced further than anyone predicted. Their run very closely resembles that of Davidson in 2008, where Davidson was a very disciplined team with one deadly scorer (Stephen Curry), and took advantage of beating solid, but not very athletic teams during their run (Gonzaga, Georgetown & Wisconsin) before they ran into Kansas.

This time around, Kentucky is that team that just has too much for Cornell to handle, with 3 potential first round draft picks. John Wall will be able to handle Louis Dale defensively, and should be able to blow by him on the offensive end. Eric Bledsoe has the ability to stay with Wittman if he maintains his discipline, and DeMarcus Cousins will expose Jeff Foote as the slow, plodding center that he is. Add to that the experience and ability of Patrick Patterson and this game may not be competitive.

All the analysts want to point out that if Cornell can keep the game close late into the game, the fact that the crowd will be pro-Cornell (close to campus in Ithaca, the NY alumni contingent driving up to Syracuse from NYC, and fans rooting for the underdog) may put tremendous pressure on the young Wildcats team. But keep in mind that the Kentucky players have played in major league atmospheres all season and have dealt with the stress and pressure of an SEC tournament. This is the biggest stage these Cornell kids have ever seen. And expecting them to stay close until the closing minutes is a very large task – like asking Mischa Barton to stay off drugs. Overall to quote Joe Biden, the talent gap between Kentucky and Cornell is a “big f—king deal.”

Gambler’s Special: Kentucky (-8)

Breaking Down the Tourney Prospects (part 1)

UPDATE: Join the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge! It's free to join. Click here for details.

Now that the Oscar’s are out of the way, it is time to lock our focus in on the NCAA Tournament. If you want to read about what teams are on the bubble, seedings, and in-depth stat analysis, head over to Luke Winn (Badger alum) or Seth Davis of SI.com, or Joe Lunardi or Andy Katz (a Badger alum!) from ESPN. What you’ll get here is which team has an Erika Christensen front court, a Kim Kardashian backcourt and Lt. Aldo Raine (Inglorious Basterds) leadship combined with some real basketball knowledge. That is basically The Sports Addict all wrapped up in one paragraph.

Before we dig into the hoops stuff, a quick story……..I was walking through Brooklyn on Saturday afternoon, and walked past a few barber shops. In the window of both places was a sign full of different haircuts, each with a number below the picture (similar to the picture on the right). Is this how lazy and unoriginal we have become in this country? We can’t even explain to our barber how we want our hair cut so we have to order our haircut like we’re ordering Chinese food? Yeah, I could really go for the #12 today – oh, you mean you want the beef & brocolli haircut? Or this time do you want the #32 – Kung Pow Chicken ‘do? And what happens when you order a #17 – Chong Qing Spicy Beef haircut and the barber tells you that your hair isn’t long enough?

Time to break down the top 25 teams based purely on their upside potential in the tournament next week. I will break down the teams and determine why they will advance deep in the tourney, why they won’t, and make a way-too-early prediction how far they can go. Obviously a tremendous amount of a team’s success in the tournament depends upon the brackets and matchups, but this will get us started. Overall, there is not that dominant team this year, and there is a deep list of teams that probably goes 15 deep that could win the championship, but the drop off is pretty severe in talent once you get past 30, which is why the bubble is full of below average teams like Arizona State, Washington, and UConn.

1. Kansas Jayhawks
Why They Will: They are the Bar Rafaeli in that they have the full package of talent, depth, and experience – a solid frontcourt and a dominant backcourt. They also qualify under the “Fat Point Guard” rule with Sheron Collins, which has led Mateen Cleaves, Sherman Douglas and Khalid Al-Amin to the Final Four.

Why They Won’t: Bill Self. Yes, he finally won a title a few years ago, but he still does not have a strong record in the NCAA tournament. The other reason they could falter is that they do not play the lock-down defense that is typical of national championships.

Bottom Line: They have the ability to win it all and should make it to the sweet 16 without breaking a sweat, but they could lose once they’re there.

2. Kentucky Wildcats
Why They Will: They are Miley Cyrus, young, talented and kind of annoying. They also have an overexposed leaders (Billy Ray Cyrus & John Calipari), but you can’t deny the fact that they have a dedicated fan base and they have star talent with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

Why They Won’t: Their youth is their blessing and their curse. Can they keep their focus and their poise and not be rattled? John Wall is not Derrick Rose, who played like a senior during his run to the Finals with Memphis.

Bottom Line: See Kansas – they have the talent to win the title, and should not have issues before the sweet 16 where it might get closer. Still likely to at least make the elite eight.


3. Syracuse Orange
Why They Will: The Jim Boeheim zone defense is dangerous in the post season when they play teams that are not used to seeing anything other than man-to-man. In addition, they are a true team, not a collection of stars. Kind of like Rachel McAdams – no stand out quality, but solid all around game that stacks up against anyone.

Why They Won’t: They might match up with Louisville at some point, and Louisville is responsible for 2 of the Orange’s 3 losses this season. Can another team take that template and make it work for them? They will need an athletic big man like Louisville’s Samardo Samuel, and strong guard play like Jerry Smith & Edgar Sosa (or the backup guard that dropped 22 in the second half when Smith got hurt).

Bottom Line: A serious contender for the final four, but they could also be the first top seed eliminated by a hot shooting #8/#9 seed in the second round.

4. Duke Blue Devils
Why They Will: Like Anna Kendrick, they appear to be smart, reserved, and well-managed/coached. Unfortunately, that got Kendrick a nomination, but she couldn’t compete with the title contenders. Duke has an experienced team with a coach that is not a stranger to the big game.

Why They Won’t: They are not physical, and not athletic enough to play with the top teams. They are 8-4 against the RPI top 50, but their best win away from home was against Clemson.

Bottom Line: Duke will be passed for the final top seed, and they could be in danger as early as the second round.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why The Will: They have the best player in the country in Evan Turner, and he is surrounded with the key factors that can come together for a deep tournament run including a shooter in Jon Diebler, tough defense and second and third scoring options in David Lighty and William Bufford. They are the Victoria’s Secret runway show, with Evan Turner starring as Marisa Miller, and he’s surrounded by quite a bit of talent.

Why They Won’t: They are not deep with Thad Motta typically only going 7 deep in the regular rotation. They could be worn out if they go deep in the Big Ten tourney and then have to grind it out over the two weeks of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a title contender (and were my futures bet a few weeks back), yet they have the potential to get knocked out in the sweet 16 by a deep team that uses full court pressure to wear them out – Louisville? Tennessee?

6. Purdue Boilermakers
Why They Will: They have the ‘win it for Robbie” motivation of playing without their emotional leader, and can rally together. They have a premier scorer who can create his own shots in E’Twaan Moore, an inside presence in JuJuan Johnson and a strong defensive scheme. They are Tara Reid – talented but going under the knife has destroyed their future.

Why They Won’t: Missing their double-double machine is a huge hit to their tournament hopes. In addition, they may not have the outside shooting needed to make a long run.


Bottom Line: They still have the talent to make a deep run, but without Hummel, they will not make the final four. Look for them to flame out in the sweet 16.

7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Why They Will: They have Bob Huggins, so you know they are a tough defensive team, which gives them a chance in the tournament. They also have fought their way through the toughest conference in the country, so they are battle-tested. Yet can you name their leading scorer? Can you name anyone on their team? They have the Erika Christensen strong front court, with forwards as their top three scorers – Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones & Devin Ebanks.

Why They Won’t: A lack of strong guard play is the biggest concern for the Mountaineers. They have the experienced coach, but without a coach on the floor, it’s tough to see them getting all the way through the gauntlet of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a dark-horse candidate to steal the last #1 seed, which could get them to the sweet 16 with ease. West Virginia could be that team that not many people have advancing deep in the tournament because they don’t know anything about them. This could be one way for you to stand out from the crowd – because you know about Erika Christensen and how her frontcourt can get you on a hot streak.

8. New Mexico
Why They Will: Despite their high ranking, they are an underdog because no one knows anything about them other than they are coached by Steve Alford and he called a BYU player an a$$hole during a post game handshake. They can use that slight as motivation, and they have some strong wins against fringe tournament teams like Cal and Texas A&M in addition to sweeping conference foe BYU. They are the Audrina Patridge – they look good on paper, but they may be doing it with smoke and mirrors (or non-factory-installed parts).

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the elite athletes to compete with the fourth or fifth place teams from the Big East, Big Ten or Big 12, which is what the Lobos will face in the second round if they get a #2 seed.

Bottom Line: They are ripe for the second round upset by a hot #7 or #10 team – much like Wisconsin was beat by Moutain West team UNLV a few years back. I like Steve Alford, but he can’t perform miracles.

9. Kansas State Wildcats
Why They Will: Strong guard play with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen. They have the ability to score on many teams and are very athletic, which could lead to a long run in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: I’ve written about it before, but the team runs emotionally high based on the high emotion of their coach Frank Martin. As a result, they bring high energy, but can play out of control at times. That will be the downfall for them in the tournament when the lights are brightest and the pressure kicks up to a level they have not seen. The best comparison for this team: Sarah Silverman – they can be entertaining, but they are legit crazy.


Bottom Line: Look for K-State to flame out before the sweet 16 if they get matched up against a disciplined, well-coached team.

10. Villanova Wildcats
Why They Will: They have a great coach, and strong, veteran guard play. Scottie Reynolds returned to school to get back to the Final Four (and because he won’t be able to cut it in the NBA). They have made it through the obstacle course that is the Big East and are ready for the big stage.

Why They Won’t: They don’t play strong enough defense. Much like Jennifer Aniston, they have all the qualities you are looking for, yet they have no defenses to fend off douchebags from doing whatever they want to them.

Bottom Line: You can’t count them out because they are experienced and have strong leadership. Yet, without the ability to get a defensive stop when needed, they will be dropped in the elite eight.

11. Michigan State Spartans
Why They Will: As much as Tom Izzo cries and whines, the guy can flat out get it done in the tournament. He has the skilled players in Kalen Lucas and Raymar Morgan, and they always play defense. Like Jessica Simpson, they whine too much and have their share of detractors, yet when they are in fighting shape, they can compete with anyone.

Why They Won’t: They are not very athletic and don’t shoot very well from outside the arc. Their matchups will be the key to determining how far they can go in the tournament.

Bottom Line: You can typically pencil them in automatically into the sweet 16 and they have a really good chance to get to the elite eight. If they can somehow get placed in the weak bracket (the committee does a good job, but there are always tougher and weaker brackets) with the last #1 seed (West Virginia?), a weaker #2 seed (New Mexico?) and a struggling #3 seed (Villanova? Pittsburgh?), and an overrated #4 seed (Temple?) then you would have to like Michigan State as a #5 seed.

12. Butler Bulldogs
Why They Will: They won’t.

Why They Won’t: Much like Gonzaga, they have bypassed their role as the mid-major powerhouse that sneaks up on teams that overlook them. They are now a known commodity, which means that teams are prepared for their stingy defense, disciplined plodding offense and ankle-biting guard play. They are just the annoying bug on the windshield of the teams from the major conferences on their way to the next round. Like Rachel Uchitel, their schemes have been exposed for what they are, and they no longer stand out in a crowd.

Bottom Line: Yes, they beat Ohio State (without Evan Turner), but they lost to Georgetown, Clemson and Minnesota. Look for them to be a #4 or #5 seed, and if they get a major conference team in the first round, they are ripe for the picking.

13. Wisconsin Badgers
Why They Will: The Badgers have the strong guard play, hot shooting, stingy defense and an inside presence that can lead to a long tournament run. They also have a great coach capable of developing game plans to stop anyone – and he looks like the Badger mascot when he gets angry. They have played without their best player, Jon Leuer, for a significant portion of the season, so the team is used to having guys step up and make plays. The Reese Witherspoon of the field – they have the classic beauty and talent to be the star of the dance.

Why They Won’t: They are not very deep, and they still have long scoring droughts despite the abilities of Trevon Hughes, Jordan Taylor and Leuer to create their own shots. Reese looked good with Ryan Phillippe and then with Jake Gyleanhaal, and yet both of those relationships didn’t go the distance.

Bottom Line: They have all the tools to make it to the Final Four, but much will be determined by their bracket and matchups. If they end up a #4 seed in the same bracket as a Kansas or Kentucky, the sweet 16 could be the ceiling for this squad.

Well, this has turned into a really long post, and your boss is probably wondering why you’ve been chuckling at your computer when you were supposed to be working on that spreadsheet to determine how to increase the profitability of this new hot product/deal that he’s bringing to the market even though you know it’s going to be a colossal failure. So check back tomorrow for the second half of the top 25 breakdown.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the second half....

(and yes, I had a brain fart and said Tom Crean when I meant Tom Izzo, the coach of Michigan State. My bad. They're both whiney bitches named Tom - Izzo just has been tremendously more successful.)

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

All-Star Mockery in the NBA & NFL

Quick note before we get to today’s post. You know that when you start typing things into Google, it automatically suggests topics which are the “most searched” that start with the letters or words you type in. If you want to kill some time, just type in “Why Does” and check out what are the most searched topics. That’s some crazy stuff. Or my personal favorite is type in “Why Can’t” and the most searched topic is “Why Can’t I Own a Canadian” – awesome. I mean, it is a good question.

Do you know what the biggest false stat used when people argue about which player is better? Player A is a 5-time all-star and Player B is only a 3-time all-star. All-Star games and the voting process is a complete joke and a total sham. I’m not even going to waste my time talking about the joke that is the baseball all-star game and deciding the home field advantage in the World Series in this article. Ever since “Proud To Be Your” Bud Selig threw up his hands (literally) at the 2002 game, the baseball all-star game has been a lightning rod of criticism. Instead, I want to focus on the ridiculous voting process used in the NBA and the substitution effect in the NFL, resulting in a very deflated value to being an “all-star” in those sports.

NBA Highlights Has-Beens

Since the 1970’s the NBA has used 100% fan voting to determine the All-Star teams, and the league sees it as a great way to engage their fans and allow them to have a say in who they want to see at their showcase event. It’s a great theory. Then again, at one point in time, “The World Is Flat” was a viable theory. It turns the game into a popularity contest and not a showcase of the best talent or brightest stars. I mean Miley Cyrus will win some “People’s Choice” music awards because young kids text in votes, but no one will make the argument it shows she is the most talented musician out there.

The best example for why the system has run it’s time and needs to be changed is taking place this year. Two aging superstars who have barely played are currently in position to start in this season’s NBA All-Star game, Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson. McGrady has played in 6 games this season and the Rockets have benched him while exploring trading options. Iverson was signed in the off-season by the Grizzlies who promptly cut him 3 games into the season because his selfishness didn’t fit with their young and talented team. (We've already covered the Demise of The Answer before). Yet, that somehow is enough for the fans to vote for them to start in the All-Star games.

The players that are hurt by this embarrassment are the young stars who are having great seasons and will not get enough votes to warrant a spot. Brandon Roy is 7th in the western conference in scoring and 10th in voting among guards in the conference. Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo are all among the top 20 in the conference in scoring for the up and coming Grizzlies, yet none of the three are listed among the top 11 in votes for the All-Star game. That’s because people still think of the Grizzlies when they were in Vancouver with Bryant “Big Country” Reeves or when they gave away Pau Gasol to the Lakers a few years ago.

Thankfully there is still time left and hopefully McGrady will get passed by Steve Nash or Chris Paul.

Who is the NFL Showcasing?

As for the NFL, prior to 1995, the Pro Bowl was determined by voting from the players and coaches. In 1995 the system was adjusted to incorporate the fans vote, splitting the votes 1/3 each for the fans, coaches and players. So my problem isn’t necessarily with the voting process in the NFL. I have a problem with the number of players that have to back out of the game due to injury, disinterest, or laziness. Again, it is the players’ prerogative to decide that they do not want a free trip to Hawaii (or Miami this year) to recuperate from the long grind of the season. So someone needs to take their place so they can fill up the roster. (We've already covered the flop of putting the Pro Bowl before the Super Bowl in November.)

However, if you’re the fourth alternate at your position within your conference, should you really get to consider yourself a “Pro Bowler” when talking about your career achievements? When they’re looking at your Hall of Fame credentials, they always mention that Player X was a 7-time Pro Bowler, but they never mention that 5 of those trips were only made possible because Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb and Drew Brees already went to 7 Pro Bowls and wanted to rest after the season. It really waters down the accomplishment.

If someone asked you who the best quarterbacks were in the AFC this season, who would be mentioned? Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, and Ben Roethlisberger would likely be the names mentioned the most. And yet, Vince Young, the 10th-highest rated quarterback IN THE CONFERENCE, with less than 2,000 yards passing, will be on the AFC roster. He didn’t even play until week 7 of the season! Yet because Brady, Roethlisberger and Rivers are passing on the game for injury reasons and Manning may have a small thing called the Super Bowl still in front of him, VY will be suiting up. Again, I get that they need to fill out the roster and someone has to play. Young just should not be able to claim that he is now a two-time Pro Bowl player. When Halle Berry won her Oscar in 2001 (for her role of getting wrecked by Billy Bob Thornton in Monster’s Ball), if she couldn’t make the awards ceremony, Beyonce doesn’t get to say she won an Oscar because she picked up the award for Halle.

So please never tell me that Zach Thomas was a much better linebacker than London Fletcher because Thomas has been to 7 Pro Bowls and Fletcher has yet to make his first. Fletcher has had 10 straight seasons with more than 90 tackles. Thomas had only 5 seasons with more than 90 tackles in his entire career. In addition, Fletcher has 8.5 more sacks in one less season than Thomas. Yet Thomas did allow Jason Taylor to marry his sister, so that’s something. The number of pro bowls is an exaggerated and meaningless stat.

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Had this article forwarded to me comparing the Leno-Conan fiasco at NBC to the Packers and Brett Favre. There are some interesting parallels between them, the most surprising to me was that 1992 was the year Leno began on the Tonight Show and Favre got his first start in Green Bay.

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This is beyond explanation – a basketball league only for American-born white guys. Not surprising that they are looking for towns in the south that might be interested. There is no truth to the rumor that they’re looking at putting the 1980’s Milwaukee Bucks teams together again to compete with a team of Fred Roberts, Brad Lohaus, Jack Sikma, Randy Breuer, Scott Skiles, Paul Mokeski, Frank Kornet and Larry Krystowiak.