Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- The Jon Gruden “QB Camp” show on ESPN was absolute gold. Not quite “Carrie Underwood at the Country Music Awards show” gold, but extremely entertaining. Gruden has a passion for the game and an understanding of the quarterback position that is on par or above anyone in football today. He also has a sense of not taking himself too seriously (calling himself the FFCA – the Fired Football Coaches of America) while getting his point across to the young quarterbacks. I have to believe the only reason he’s not coaching somewhere is because he doesn’t want the stress – he loves the game and gets full access to all the players and all the film while toiling away at ESPN. Yet something tells me he will be back on the sidelines soon. Watching him dissect film with Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow showed an insight into the players’ personalities as well as what Gruden cherishes in his signal callers. I won’t be doing a mock draft (I don’t try to understand the nuances of offensive lineman – they need to have long arms. Or they don’t – see Joe Thomas) so maybe tomorrow I’ll give my thoughts on each quarterback just from what I’ve seen of them playing and watching this heavily edited show. (that’s my caveat in case my predictions are as bad as my NCAA basketball picks)

- During last night’s country music awards show, LL Cool J came out to introduce an award and opened by saying “this is my first country music awards show.” Really? You don’t say. You mean “Momma Said Knock You Out” and “Around The Way Girl” didn’t qualify for country music awards. That was the second most surprising part of the show. The first was trying to figure out who Laura Bell Bundy was and if she was actually the offspring of Al Bundy on Married With Children.

- Watching the NBA playoff games this weekend and a familiar script took shape in every game I watched: Cleveland vs. Chicago, Atlanta vs. Milwaukee, Los Angeles vs. Oklahoma City and Orlando vs. Charlotte. In every game, the favorite jumped out to a big lead of 20+ points, then in the second half the underdog rallied to get back in the game, only to have the favorite keep them at a punching distance despite the tries by the announcers to make you believe it was a close game. I suppose it’s to be expected considering the short shot clock and the “momentum officiating” that is so prevalent in the NBA, but it didn’t make for entertaining basketball to watch. I turned off each game for a considerable time in the middle of each game knowing I could come back in a half hour and the game would be closer.

- The Lakers struggled down the stretch of the regular season, giving hope to fans of the Mavs, Suns, and the rest of the Western conference. Well, Andrew Bynum came back to start the playoffs and suddenly, the Lakers look more like the team that was rolling through the league earlier in the season. Everyone will focus on Durant’s struggles against Ron Artest, but that’s not surprising. Artest has the ability to slow him down and we knew that. What we didn’t know was that Bynum would come back with a vengeance, scoring 9 points, grabbing 5 boards and blocking 3 shots in only 15 minutes of the first half. If he can get his conditioning back by the Western Conference finals, it will be as tough to slow the Lakers as it is for a tight dress to contain Christina Hendricks.

HATE

- Kevin Garnett has always played with a rage and intensity that bordered on lunacy. Well the elbow he threw at Quentin Richardson was dumber than Lindsay Lohan. He got himself a 1 game suspension for a Celtics team that has very little room for error. The game was over and there was no need for the elbow. Yes, Richardson is a clown and shouldn’t have been over there chirping in Garnett’s ear. But it doesn’t make it any less dumb for Garnett to fire the elbow at a useless nomad. He is a 15 year veteran and has to know better than that. On the other hand, it makes that series much more interesting, however due to the NBA’s horrendous scheduling, I have no idea when this series continues. Too many of the series have 2 day breaks between games 1 and 2 – there isn’t even a travel day!!

- I know the season is young and it’s not time to press the panic button for any baseball team yet. However I’m losing hope quickly on the Brewers chances to compete this season. Their starters are not up to par and their bullpen appears shakier than Ben Roethlisberger’s reputation. They have blown late leads regularly and it appears there is something wrong with LaTroy Hawkins shoulder because he does not have the velocity or strength that he had in his first couple outings. And it sure appears that the Brewers signed a left-handed version of Jeff Suppan in Doug Davis. There was a reason they let him leave town 3 years ago, right? And a reason the Diamondbacks were happy to see him go this past offseason, right? What made us think he’d suddenly regain a form from 4-5 years ago? Davis was spotted a 10 run lead on Sunday before he threw his first pitch and couldn’t survive five innings to qualify for the win. Then combine the poor pitching with pathetic offensive efforts like Saturday against the lowly Nationals and you have all the ingredients of a disappointing season.

- Speaking of the NL Central – there are little things that show when a team is for real. The Cardinals and Adam Wainwright showed it on Sunday. After the Cards and Mets went 20 innings on Saturday, blasting through their pitching staffs, both teams were in danger of wearing out their bullpen early in the season which could have long term repercussions for the rest of the season. Instead, Wainwright takes the ball and throws a complete game on Sunday night, giving his bullpen a day to recover and not have the extra inning game throw them off kilter. Those are the little things that make the difference. Imagine the Brewers needing to rely on Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis or Dave Bush to give their bullpen a rest. Exactly. That’s why the Cardinals will run away with the division.

- I caught a brief part of the Red Sox game against the Rays on Sunday afternoon, and a random note that the announcer made kind of blew me away. After a strong play by the Ray’s left fielder (I’m too lazy to look up who it was) of a ball bouncing off the Green Monster at Fenway, it was noted that the guy was comfortable at Fenway because it was his 70th game at the stadium. 70th!!! And he’s never played for the Sox. If that’s not a sign that the baseball season is too long and too imbalanced with divisional games, I don’t know what is.

- Two quick thoughts on announcers. Vin Scully celebrated his 60th anniversary announcing games. His first game was in 1950. That is incredible. He has one of the best voices, tells amazing stories and also weaves in a tremendous amount of information into his playcalling. Listen to his play call of the infamous Bill Buckner call. Listen to his call of the Kirk Gibson homerun in the 1988 World Series. Just pure verbal poetry. On the other end of the spectrum, I listened to some of the Orlando-Charlotte game on TNT and heard Kevin McHale doing the color commentating. McHale’s knowledge of the game and understanding of the nuances of playoff basketball is beyond reproach. Yet much like I have a face for radio, McHale has a voice for something other than broadcasting. I can’t put my finger on it, but his voice has a nasal tone or something that was like nails on a chalkboard. Play to your strengths, and announcing is not McHale’s strength.

Bracket Breakdown - Midwest & West

Reminder – sign up for the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge. It’s free and you have a chance to win stuff – what more could you ask for? See details on the right side of the page.

Yesterday we set up the bracket challenge and gave some quick thoughts after looking at the bracket. Now it’s time to break it down and figure out how to fill out the best bracket you can. There are tons of stats and number crunching out there, and some are relevant and some are not. Stats are about as reliable as John Edwards’ mistress Reille Hunter, and can be manipulated to tell whatever story you want to shed light on your hunches. The #12 over the #5 is the most overhyped upset pick, yet it has happened 4 times in the past two years. The #12 is 10-18 in the first round the past 7 years, so it’s not a lock, but there are definite potential upsets. Other random stats that people will rely on include stats that teams seeded below #12 are only 6-394 after the first round. So if you pick that #13 seed over a #4, you might want to hesitate before sending them to the sweet 16.

Aside from those generic stats, here is a breakdown of each bracket. My official picks will not be made until Thursday morning, but you will definitely see which way I am leaning after spending Monday tearing through the USA Today, NY Times, NY Post and most of the internet.

THE MIDWEST BRACKET

Theme Song: “Hungry Like The Wolf” by Duran Duran
The song seems fitting for a bracket filled with the deepest line-up of talent, from individual players (Sherron Collins, Evan Turner, Greveis Vasquez, James Anderson, etc), to coaches (Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Gary “Shooter” Williams, Thad Motta, etc), and to teams (Northern Iowa). The team left standing from this bracket might feel relieved to “only” have to play Syracuse, Kansas State, Pittsburgh or another team out of the West bracket.

Keeley Hazel (talent to bust out): Tennessee (#6 Seed)
Everyone knows that Tennessee is the only team to beat both Kansas and Kentucky during the regular season, and it’s their defense that drives their success. They have held teams to below 40% shooting from the field, and had the 8th stingiest defense according to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency. When their get hot, they are capable of beating anyone. The biggest concern about them is whether they were disappointed with the low seeding in a tough bracket and whether they will be able to use that for motivation or come out flat.

Rosie Jones (best stats): Kansas (#1 seed)
They have the 5th ranked defense according to Ken Pomeroy (despite me believing they lacked the ability to lock teams down), they are 2nd in the tournament field in point differential, and 5th in the field in 3-point shooting percentage. Much like the British model, Rosie Jones, they have all the relevant stats dominate the bracket. That being said, caution should be used when putting some sweet action on the individual Kansas games as the Jayhawks are only 14-16-1 against the spread this year.

Carey Mulligan (unknown with potential): Northern Iowa (#9 seed)
I’m not sure that the boy haircut that Mulligan sports is very attractive, but there is no doubt that she is talented on the big screen or just walking down the street. Northern Iowa comes in with a gritty reputation for stingy defense and not being afraid of the big moment. They have lost by 5 points in each of their past 4 tournament appearances. The #9 seed should be able to knock off UNLV before running int o the buzzsaw at the top of the bracket.

David Beckham & Posh Spice (best matchup): #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has as much upside talent as any team south of Kansas, including likely lottery pick Derrick Favors, yet they have been maddeningly inconsistent all season going 8-8 their last 16 games. Oklahoma State has been riding on the shoulders of their All-American candidate James Anderson, which means the Cowboys are capable of making this a high-scoring close battle. Unfortunately for whichever team wins this first rounder, Evan Turner and Ohio State will be waiting to treat them like like Beckham’s achilles tendon.

WEST BRACKET

Theme Song: “Mama Said Knock You Out” by LL Cool J
Maybe the stong is still stuck in my head after the ESPN 30 for 30 special on Reggie Miller, but the song fits for the West bracket. And after I somehow ended up with a British tilt on the Midwest bracket, I needed to bring the West back to the States. The West bracket is wide open with any number of teams capable of knocking one another out.

January Jones (talent to bust out): UTEP (#12 seed)
UTEP cruised to the Conference USA regular season title before wetting themselves in the tournament championship. They have the conference player of the year in Randy Culpepper leading their uptempo attack. Culpepper combined with Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter has the Miners primed to be the best bet for the standard #12 over #5 upset. UTEP is also coached by former John Calipari discipline, so if Tony Barbee does things like his mentor, the Miners need to be successful before the impending NCAA sanctions.

Eva Mendes (best stats): BYU (#7 seed)
BYU has the highest scoring average of the 65 tournament teams, the highest per game point differential (outscoring its opponents by 18.5 points per game), is 3rd in 3-point percentage and the best free throw shooting team. With point guard Jimmer Fredette lighting up scoreboards all season, the Cougars have the ability to score with anyone. However they have not won a tournament game since 1993 and have a first round matchup against a Florida team that is fired up to be back in the tournament for the first time since winning back-to-back titles in 2006 & 2007.

Amanda Seyfried (unknown with potential): Murray State (#13 seed)
There is a rumor that Seyfried has a scene in her next movie where all of her ample talents are put on display. In a related note, Murray State has a chance to get their second all-time NCAA tournament victory when they go up against an overrated Vanderbilt team. The Racers have outscored their opponents by 17 points per game, and are among the nations leaders in rebound margin. They also bring a very balanced attack with 6 players averaging between 10.6 and 9.5 ppg and play tough enough defense to fluster a veteran Commodores squad.

Jake Pavelka & Vienna Girardi (best matchup): #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State
Since this bracket doesn’t have a matchup that looks good on paper, I’m assigning The Bachelor couple that no one liked to the Gonzaga-Florida State game. While I might like the chances of the #12 and #13 seeds in the bracket to advance, it is more a sign of a lack of respect for the #4 and #5 teams than it is a sign of a great matchup. This will be a matchup of the stingy defense of Florida State against the high scoring and shooting Bulldog team – so maybe the couple should be Tenley’s defense against Jake’s advances. We all know Vienna wasn’t playing any defense. Anyway, Florida State has not beaten anyone of consequence outside of the ACC and likely will not be able to score enough to beat Gonzaga.

Check back tomorrow for breakdowns of the East and South brackets……….