Degenerate Friday! 2nd Half Predictions

Since my baseball futures bet of the Mariners went so well in the first half of the season, I figured I’d make some predictions for the second half of the season. I mean, I believe I wrote that the addition of Milton Bradley combined with the veteran leadership of Ken Griffey Jr. would carry the M’s offense. Yeah, that didn’t work out all that well – it’s hard to lead when you’re sleeping in the clubhouse and retiring before the all-star break, and it’s hard to provide offensive punch when you’re taking time off for mental instability. Anyway, let’s hope my second half thoughts can burst on the scene like Jen Brown – the next Erin Andrews chosen to be the ESPN sideline princess during college football season. She seems to have all the assets, understands her role and judging by her outfit at the ESPY’s, is not afraid of the limelight.

AL Playoff Teams:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Red Sox

It’s a pretty boring picture in the AL, without many surprises. The Yankees have the best team in baseball, with a pitching staff capable of carrying them through even without their potent offensive line up. It’s a bad sign when you know that they will be involved before the trading deadline and all they are looking for is middle relief or set up help in the bullpen. It’s like having the assets of Brooklyn Decker and only having to worry about finding the right dress for the ESPY’s to showcase her talent – it’s not really fair to anyone else around.

The Red Sox have been fighting the injury bug all season and the continued absence of Dustin Pedroia will hamper the offense as they try to stay with the Rays for the wildcard. If they can get him and Josh Beckett back healthy and effective, they will reel in the Rays and pass them for the last playoff spot. The Sox pitching with Lester, Lackey and a healthy Beckett could make them a nightmare in the playoffs if they can qualify.

The Twins will be able to outlast the Tigers & White Sox in the Central and the Rangers will run away the west with the addition of Cliff Lee. Lee can carry the Rangers to the AL Championship Series and gives them a fighting chance with his dominance of the Yankees. Unfortunately the Yankees veterans will prove too much for the Rangers, despite the playoff experience of Lee & Vladamir Guerrero.

Divisional Round:
Yankees over Twins
Rangers over Red Sox

AL Champ: Yankees over Rangers


NL Playoff Teams:
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL Wildcard: Mets

The Braves made a smart trade getting rid of the immensely talented but mercurial Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez. In Bobby Cox’s final season, the team is all pulling in the same direction and can’t afford the distraction of the often-disinterested shortstop. With the return to health of Jason Heyward and Nate McClouth, the Braves offense will be able to match their strong pitching and hold off the Mets and Phillies for the division crown.

The Reds have been among the surprises in baseball this season. While they had the talent to compete, no one knew if the youth would finally come through. They are much like the 2008 Brewer team in that they have a young core of talent that should be able to carry them, but they could definitely use an extra pitcher to give them the leverage to hold off the Cardinals. They should try to get involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes, yet it might be more difficult to get a division foe to trade with than it would be to get a Vegas VIP hostess job without frontcourt enhancements.

The Padres have been a tremendous story during the first half of the year with a pitching staff that has kept them at or near first place most of the season. Yet the Rockies have been coming on as of late and all the experts seem to think they are still the team to beat in the NL West.

The Mets will also be heavily involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes and may be the team capable of taking on his big contract. Also look for them to be there to get Ted Lilly from the Cubs. That addition of a pitcher combined with the return of Carlos Beltran, even if he is not at full strength, should be enough to hold off the injury-riddled Phillies for the Wildcard.

NL Divisional Round
Braves over Reds
Mets over Rockies

NL Championship: Braves over Mets

World Series: Yankees over Braves

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- The Jon Gruden “QB Camp” show on ESPN was absolute gold. Not quite “Carrie Underwood at the Country Music Awards show” gold, but extremely entertaining. Gruden has a passion for the game and an understanding of the quarterback position that is on par or above anyone in football today. He also has a sense of not taking himself too seriously (calling himself the FFCA – the Fired Football Coaches of America) while getting his point across to the young quarterbacks. I have to believe the only reason he’s not coaching somewhere is because he doesn’t want the stress – he loves the game and gets full access to all the players and all the film while toiling away at ESPN. Yet something tells me he will be back on the sidelines soon. Watching him dissect film with Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow showed an insight into the players’ personalities as well as what Gruden cherishes in his signal callers. I won’t be doing a mock draft (I don’t try to understand the nuances of offensive lineman – they need to have long arms. Or they don’t – see Joe Thomas) so maybe tomorrow I’ll give my thoughts on each quarterback just from what I’ve seen of them playing and watching this heavily edited show. (that’s my caveat in case my predictions are as bad as my NCAA basketball picks)

- During last night’s country music awards show, LL Cool J came out to introduce an award and opened by saying “this is my first country music awards show.” Really? You don’t say. You mean “Momma Said Knock You Out” and “Around The Way Girl” didn’t qualify for country music awards. That was the second most surprising part of the show. The first was trying to figure out who Laura Bell Bundy was and if she was actually the offspring of Al Bundy on Married With Children.

- Watching the NBA playoff games this weekend and a familiar script took shape in every game I watched: Cleveland vs. Chicago, Atlanta vs. Milwaukee, Los Angeles vs. Oklahoma City and Orlando vs. Charlotte. In every game, the favorite jumped out to a big lead of 20+ points, then in the second half the underdog rallied to get back in the game, only to have the favorite keep them at a punching distance despite the tries by the announcers to make you believe it was a close game. I suppose it’s to be expected considering the short shot clock and the “momentum officiating” that is so prevalent in the NBA, but it didn’t make for entertaining basketball to watch. I turned off each game for a considerable time in the middle of each game knowing I could come back in a half hour and the game would be closer.

- The Lakers struggled down the stretch of the regular season, giving hope to fans of the Mavs, Suns, and the rest of the Western conference. Well, Andrew Bynum came back to start the playoffs and suddenly, the Lakers look more like the team that was rolling through the league earlier in the season. Everyone will focus on Durant’s struggles against Ron Artest, but that’s not surprising. Artest has the ability to slow him down and we knew that. What we didn’t know was that Bynum would come back with a vengeance, scoring 9 points, grabbing 5 boards and blocking 3 shots in only 15 minutes of the first half. If he can get his conditioning back by the Western Conference finals, it will be as tough to slow the Lakers as it is for a tight dress to contain Christina Hendricks.

HATE

- Kevin Garnett has always played with a rage and intensity that bordered on lunacy. Well the elbow he threw at Quentin Richardson was dumber than Lindsay Lohan. He got himself a 1 game suspension for a Celtics team that has very little room for error. The game was over and there was no need for the elbow. Yes, Richardson is a clown and shouldn’t have been over there chirping in Garnett’s ear. But it doesn’t make it any less dumb for Garnett to fire the elbow at a useless nomad. He is a 15 year veteran and has to know better than that. On the other hand, it makes that series much more interesting, however due to the NBA’s horrendous scheduling, I have no idea when this series continues. Too many of the series have 2 day breaks between games 1 and 2 – there isn’t even a travel day!!

- I know the season is young and it’s not time to press the panic button for any baseball team yet. However I’m losing hope quickly on the Brewers chances to compete this season. Their starters are not up to par and their bullpen appears shakier than Ben Roethlisberger’s reputation. They have blown late leads regularly and it appears there is something wrong with LaTroy Hawkins shoulder because he does not have the velocity or strength that he had in his first couple outings. And it sure appears that the Brewers signed a left-handed version of Jeff Suppan in Doug Davis. There was a reason they let him leave town 3 years ago, right? And a reason the Diamondbacks were happy to see him go this past offseason, right? What made us think he’d suddenly regain a form from 4-5 years ago? Davis was spotted a 10 run lead on Sunday before he threw his first pitch and couldn’t survive five innings to qualify for the win. Then combine the poor pitching with pathetic offensive efforts like Saturday against the lowly Nationals and you have all the ingredients of a disappointing season.

- Speaking of the NL Central – there are little things that show when a team is for real. The Cardinals and Adam Wainwright showed it on Sunday. After the Cards and Mets went 20 innings on Saturday, blasting through their pitching staffs, both teams were in danger of wearing out their bullpen early in the season which could have long term repercussions for the rest of the season. Instead, Wainwright takes the ball and throws a complete game on Sunday night, giving his bullpen a day to recover and not have the extra inning game throw them off kilter. Those are the little things that make the difference. Imagine the Brewers needing to rely on Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis or Dave Bush to give their bullpen a rest. Exactly. That’s why the Cardinals will run away with the division.

- I caught a brief part of the Red Sox game against the Rays on Sunday afternoon, and a random note that the announcer made kind of blew me away. After a strong play by the Ray’s left fielder (I’m too lazy to look up who it was) of a ball bouncing off the Green Monster at Fenway, it was noted that the guy was comfortable at Fenway because it was his 70th game at the stadium. 70th!!! And he’s never played for the Sox. If that’s not a sign that the baseball season is too long and too imbalanced with divisional games, I don’t know what is.

- Two quick thoughts on announcers. Vin Scully celebrated his 60th anniversary announcing games. His first game was in 1950. That is incredible. He has one of the best voices, tells amazing stories and also weaves in a tremendous amount of information into his playcalling. Listen to his play call of the infamous Bill Buckner call. Listen to his call of the Kirk Gibson homerun in the 1988 World Series. Just pure verbal poetry. On the other end of the spectrum, I listened to some of the Orlando-Charlotte game on TNT and heard Kevin McHale doing the color commentating. McHale’s knowledge of the game and understanding of the nuances of playoff basketball is beyond reproach. Yet much like I have a face for radio, McHale has a voice for something other than broadcasting. I can’t put my finger on it, but his voice has a nasal tone or something that was like nails on a chalkboard. Play to your strengths, and announcing is not McHale’s strength.

Degenerate Friday!! MLB Futures

Before the gambling talk, a quick thought on the Giants beaning Prince Fielder with the first pitch of his first at bat of spring training. Prince hit the walk-off homer last season that culminated with an over the top celebration involving the entire team at home plate. I am all for the celebration, but when you do something like that, you may have to pay the piper, even though the celebration wasn’t aimed at the opponent and was just his own team celebrating together. I was glad to see Prince handle it like a man, flip the ball back to Zito and trot to first base. Now at the same time, the Brewers now have the right to continue the feud if they choose. If they want to plunk Pablo Sandoval in spring training or have Yovanni Gallardo buzz Zito’s tower when he gets to the plate in the regular season, it is justified.

-----------------------------------------

Just a little over a week until we get to the “Degenerate Christmas” that is the NCAA tournament. In the meantime, we need to keep up the roll we have been on when we loaded up on picking the US Hockey Team in the preliminary round and Canada in the medal game. What, you didn’t think I was serious on those games? You don’t trust my Olympic hockey knowledge? Never underestimate the random crappy sports knowledge that is stored in the Sports Addict’s head. So how do I keep that momentum going? By telling you about wagers that won’t be determined until November, so you’ll have long forgotten the wager by then – that’s how! Let’s look at the value bets for baseball futures on winning the World Series and the AL & NL Pennants. These are not my picks for who I think will win the trophies, but purely where I think there is value based on the current odds being offered. Let’s figure out where to stash our long-term investments…..assuming gambling was legal of course.

Here’s the link to the odds on bodog.com, and below are a few select odds for those that can’t get the link at their office:

Odds to Win the World Series & odds to win the AL/NL Pennant:

Yankees: 11/4 & 3/2
Red Sox: 10/1 & 6/3
Rays: 20/1 & 12/1
Twins: 20/1 & 9/1
Tigers: 28/1 & 14/1
White Sox: 25/1 & 12/1
Angels: 15/1 & 17/2
Mariners: 16/1 & 8/1
Rangers: 25/1 & 12/1

Cardinals: 13/1 & 11/2
Phillies: 6/1 & 3/1
Mets: 20/1 & 10/1
Braves: 22/1 & 11/1
Brewers: 40/1 & 18/1
Cubs: 18/1 & 9/1
Reds: 50/1 & 25/1
Astros: 75/1 & 40/1
Dodgers: 14/1 & 7/1
Diamondbacks: 35/1 & 15/1
Giants: 20/1 & 10/1

Worst Possible Bet:

New York Mets – World Series (20/1) or NL Pennant (10/1)
What have the Mets done that would lead you to think they could contend in their own division, much less the NL or the World Series? They added Jason Bay, who is like Fergie from the Black-Eyed Peas. A strong individual contributor, but when you surround them with real talent – like Will.I.Am – then you actually have something that can sell records. Even with Bay, their pitching is not good enough to content with the Phillies, Braves and possibly the Marlins. Johan Santana is a stud, but after that they are relying on John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez – three guys that could barely be the #4 starter on the other contenders. And yet because of the New York media and optimism, the odds remain similar to a team like San Francisco, which has Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnathan Sanchez and Barry Zito? Seems like their odds should be similar to Heidi Montag winning the Nobel Prize.

Best Value Bet for AL Pennant:

Seattle Mariners (8/1 odds)
There is no value to betting on the Yankees or Red Sox, so we’re just going to eliminate those teams immediately. The number of homer fans that will bet on them drive down the odds, which makes them even less attractive. And as of this moment, the Sox don’t have enough offense to compete (they will likely add Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego at some point), and the Yankees have to fight complacency after last year’s title. So instead, let’s look at a team that made some crucial acquisitions during the off-season and I believe may be best positioned to knock off the Yankees – the Mariners.

Their pitching rotation is as good as anyone in the league, with King Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation, followed by last year’s post-season darling Cliff Lee, and Erik Bedard. The back end of the rotation has as much depth as it does talent, with a veteran in Ian Snell and young guys like Ryan Rowland-Smith, Doug Fister and Luke French. The bullpen is full of guys you never heard of, like closer David Aardsma. Then again, no one knew who Blake Lively was when she showed up in random terrible movies like “Accepted” or “The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants” and now she is paparazzi gold – much like Aardsma can be fantasy baseball gold.

Offensively, they added more speed to pair with Ichiro when they signed Chone Figgins away from division rival Anaheim. They picked up shortstop Jack Wilson from the Pirates at last season’s trade deadline, and they have great camraderie in the locker room due to the presence of the Mariners greatest player of all time, Ken Griffey Jr. If they can keep Milton Bradley focused on just playing baseball, he has the potential to be as important to the Mariners as Ron Artest has been to the Lakers this season. Getting 8/1 is pretty good value for a team that has two of the best pitchers in the AL, and two of the best on-base and production guys with Ichiro and Figgins.

Best Value Bet for the NL Pennant:

Atlanta Braves (11/1 odds)
Again, we are looking for value, so the Phillies are not in consideration. In addtion to that, it is hard to see them winning a third consecutive pennant. So where do we look? The Cardinals? Maybe, but the NL Central may be the toughest division battle top-to bottom with the improved Brewers pitching staff, a healthy Cubs team, and a young and improved Reds team. (The AL Central is the next toughest with the Twins, Tigers & White Sox. The AL East has NY and Boston, and maybe the Rays, but the Orioles & Blue Jays stink) And don’t sleep on the Astros, who still have Roy Oswalt to anchor their pitching staff and Carlos Lee & Lance Berkman on offense. Facing that challenge and not having great odds, I’ll pass on the Cardinals. That and I think that Tony LaRussa is an arrogant jag-off, so I would never want to root for him over a full season. The Atlanta Braves who have retooled, and have the offense and pitching to come together and make a run at the pennant, while giving us some quality value at 11/1.

The Braves have the offense to score runs, surrounding veterans Chipper Jones and Brian McCann with Nate McClouth, Melky Cabrera, veteran Troy Glaus and stud-in-the-making Yunel Escobar. It is a solid line-up of speed with McClouth, power with Jones, McCann & Glaus, and combo players like Escobar. Combine that line-up with their emerging pitching staff, including youngsters Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hansen with veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Low, and you have a team capable of being dominant. They also get the advantage of playing in a division with the worst team in baseball in the Washington Nationals, and teams that likely will not be able to compete in the Mets & Marlins. Lastly, don’t forget the emotions involved in the team knowing this is Bobby Cox’s final season as manager and wanting to send him out with a big season. Cox has been a legend in Atlanta and deserves to go out on top.

Best Bet to win the World Series:

Seattle Mariners (16/1)
Well, if we’re looking at a Seattle-Atlanta matchup in the World Series, Fox is not going to be happy, but baseball fans should be thrilled. You will get the angle of Ken Griffey Jr. and Bobby Cox trying to end their storied careers with a title, the return of Cliff Lee to the World Series, and the potential of a second straight Japanese born MVP (Matsui last year and Ichiro of the Mariners). While I like the odds and thus the payday of the Braves better, the Mariners have a more experienced pitching staff and will have come out of the tougher American League.

There you have it – my prediction that will most definitely not play out accurately, and I’ll come up with 1,000 different excuses for why it didn’t happen – injuries, weather, bad management, unfair playing field when the Yankees make another big trade, etc. Basically, I’ll turn into the 2009 NY Mets.

Week 5 Hangover - Love/Hate

Thankfully it was an awesome fall weekend in the Northeast, so it made up for the lack of really interesting football games. Good weekend to get outdoors, go to a game, spending time in Central Park or going to an apple orchard. Granted there were a couple of overtime NFL games, and the Florida-LSU game was close, but not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. So as always – hit up Peter King, Michael Silver or Mike Florio/Gregg Rosenthal for full summaries, these are my quick hit loves/hates.

LOVE

- The Broncos are officially real. After a strong comeback win against the Pats, I’m now not just a believer in the Broncos, but I’m a big fan of Josh McDaniels. His emotions after the game were awesome, and it was obvious that even though he respects his former mentor and team, he loved sticking it to them. And Vonnie Holliday is still playing and still effective!?!?! And Kyle Orton is 26-12 as a starting quarterback.

- Matt Ryan is showing he may belong among the discussion of the top 5 QBs in the league. And he may be ready to lead the Falcons to the promise land. He dismantled a good 49ers defense on the road and with the exception of his hiccup against the Pats has been dominant. If Atlanta can also run the ball effectively, they’re dangerous to the Giants, Saints and Vikings. Ryan is kind of like Matt Leinart – except the exact opposite. He’s focused on football, smart and mature.

- I respect Tony LaRussa’s success as a manager, but it was enjoyable to watch that jag-off get swept out of the playoffs.

- Not that anyone knew, or cared, but a big win for the US Soccer team over Honduras to qualify for the World Cup next year in South Africa. Not so much for the win, but the ridiculous political situation surrounding the game.

- Peyton Manning has practically wrapped up the MVP award way too early in the season. Over 300 yards every week, and this team is absolutely incredible. I don’t know what else to say about Herman Munster – the dude is on track to win his 4th MVP award.

HATE

- 1-2 on the college picks this week, so not a great start. Although that UW-OSU game was tough because Wisconsin actually physically dominated the Buckeyes, yet got their butts kicked. Pathetic. It was a hideous game to watch.

- Is there a more overrated QB in the country than Terrell Pryor? Yes, he’s an athete. No, he’s not a QB. He was 5-13 for 87 yards and rushed for 35 yards on 10 carries – and won. The only guy that’s close to being as overrated is that kid at Ole Miss: Jevon Snead. Talked about as being a challenger to Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford at the top of draft boards, he’ll now be lucky to get drafted in the 3rd round if he’s not smart enough to stay in school for his senior year. Snead has 9 TDs and 9 INTs with a completion percentage under 47%.

- The Browns-Bills game…….time to consider contracting those two teams. Wow – 6-3? Derek Anderson was 2-for-17, and he won the game! Maybe the Browns should draft Pryor, he seems like a perfect fit.

- Rough weekend for Boston sports. Red Sox collapse at home in the 9th to finish getting swept, and Pats blow a 17-7 lead and Brady loses in OT for the first time in his career. The Freedom Trail will be a trail of tears this week.

- The Raiders circus continues. Sure looks like Tom Cable is going to get arrested for assaulting his assistant coach. What a mess. Oh, and on the field they suck harder than Paris Hilton and Kim Kardashian combined.

- Not sure if many people saw it, but in the 3rd quarter, while the 49ers were getting their lunch eaten by the Falcons, Dre Bly picked off a pass at his own 15 yard line and as he crossed his own 25 yard line, started to do a little Deion dance to celebrate his great play. The only problem? He was promptly caught from behind by Roddy White (who already had over 200 yards receiving by toasting Bly repeatedly), and stripped of the ball and the Falcons recovered. Mr. Bly, you sir, are an ass-clown.

- People get paid to do “research” like this? Unreal.

Barney Baseball

Baseball is in the final week of the regular season and I can’t remember a recent season with less drama in almost every race. The only exception is the AL Central where the Tigers and Twins are currently starting a 4 game series with the Twins trailing the Tigers by 2 games. Why does no one outside of Minnesota or Michigan care about who wins? Part of the problem is the media’s intense focus on only things involving the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers – the 3 biggest baseball markets. The other problem is that whoever wins the division is going to be first round fodder for those Yankees.

What’s better? To be the Twins where every year you might barely squeak into the playoffs and then get bounced in the first round, or to be the Marlins where they build up a team capable of winning (and they have won), then blow the whole thing up, are terrible for a couple years and then reload. I’m not sure, because I’d like to be in the playoffs every year, but do you become immune to the excitement if you just continually get bounced in the first round? Kind of like a girlfriend that has classic good looks but may not be a super model/singer vs. the girl with the boob job and botox that’s going to need to be “retuned” every few years. I think I’ll take the consistency year over year. Think Tony Romo trading in Jessica Simpson for Natalie Smith.

This season, there have barely been any changes in playoff teams since the end of June. As of June 30, the AL playoff teams would have been: Boston, NY, LA Angels, and Detroit. As of today, those are the exact same teams, the only difference is now the Yankees won the division and the Red Sox are the wildcard. In the NL, it took an extra 3 weeks, but as of July 20, the playoff teams would have been: Philly, St. Louis, Dodgers, and Colorado. As of today, those are the exact teams in the exact places.

The positive from the fact that the last 2+ months of the season have been meaningless, is that it confirms that the best teams will be active in the playoffs. These teams have proven over the course of the season that they have the best teams in their divisions and, in theory, the playoffs should be very competitive. I’ll put together a more in-depth preview once the regular season is complete, but for now I’ll just say that I think 1-2-3 starting pitchers and a couple guys who can mash are the keys to success in the playoffs.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

On a somewhat related, but different topic, I’m rooting really hard for the Rockies to fold in this past week and have the Braves or the Giants make the playoffs as the NL Wild Card. I’m not sure what I have against the Rockies – they swept the Phillies two years ago, which I thoroughly enjoyed – but I think it has something to do with the Purple Barney uniforms. Has a team wearing purple ever won a major championship?

NFL – Vikings -> Nope
NBA – Suns, Raptors (since dropped), Kings, Jazz, Bucks (since dropped) -> Nope
MLB – Rockies -> Nope
NHL – LA Kings -> Nope

The only real exception is the LA Lakers. Their purple and gold has won many championships, so maybe they break the rules about winning while looking like Barney.

I guess the only other exceptions I can think of are the Baltimore Ravens, but they are primarily black and white and use purple and gold as accent colors……maybe. And I guess you could make a case for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but since they’ve changed colors 3,217 times in the 11 years they’ve had a team, I’m not sure it counts.

So maybe that’s why I don’t want to see the Rockies in the playoffs. Either that or it’s the fact that games at Coors are never the classic pitching duels I like in the playoffs. Or I’d rather watch Lincecum or Tommy Hanson pitch than……….sorry, can’t think of a Rockies pitcher – Ubaldo Jimenez?