Bracket Breakdown - Midwest & West

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Yesterday we set up the bracket challenge and gave some quick thoughts after looking at the bracket. Now it’s time to break it down and figure out how to fill out the best bracket you can. There are tons of stats and number crunching out there, and some are relevant and some are not. Stats are about as reliable as John Edwards’ mistress Reille Hunter, and can be manipulated to tell whatever story you want to shed light on your hunches. The #12 over the #5 is the most overhyped upset pick, yet it has happened 4 times in the past two years. The #12 is 10-18 in the first round the past 7 years, so it’s not a lock, but there are definite potential upsets. Other random stats that people will rely on include stats that teams seeded below #12 are only 6-394 after the first round. So if you pick that #13 seed over a #4, you might want to hesitate before sending them to the sweet 16.

Aside from those generic stats, here is a breakdown of each bracket. My official picks will not be made until Thursday morning, but you will definitely see which way I am leaning after spending Monday tearing through the USA Today, NY Times, NY Post and most of the internet.

THE MIDWEST BRACKET

Theme Song: “Hungry Like The Wolf” by Duran Duran
The song seems fitting for a bracket filled with the deepest line-up of talent, from individual players (Sherron Collins, Evan Turner, Greveis Vasquez, James Anderson, etc), to coaches (Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Gary “Shooter” Williams, Thad Motta, etc), and to teams (Northern Iowa). The team left standing from this bracket might feel relieved to “only” have to play Syracuse, Kansas State, Pittsburgh or another team out of the West bracket.

Keeley Hazel (talent to bust out): Tennessee (#6 Seed)
Everyone knows that Tennessee is the only team to beat both Kansas and Kentucky during the regular season, and it’s their defense that drives their success. They have held teams to below 40% shooting from the field, and had the 8th stingiest defense according to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency. When their get hot, they are capable of beating anyone. The biggest concern about them is whether they were disappointed with the low seeding in a tough bracket and whether they will be able to use that for motivation or come out flat.

Rosie Jones (best stats): Kansas (#1 seed)
They have the 5th ranked defense according to Ken Pomeroy (despite me believing they lacked the ability to lock teams down), they are 2nd in the tournament field in point differential, and 5th in the field in 3-point shooting percentage. Much like the British model, Rosie Jones, they have all the relevant stats dominate the bracket. That being said, caution should be used when putting some sweet action on the individual Kansas games as the Jayhawks are only 14-16-1 against the spread this year.

Carey Mulligan (unknown with potential): Northern Iowa (#9 seed)
I’m not sure that the boy haircut that Mulligan sports is very attractive, but there is no doubt that she is talented on the big screen or just walking down the street. Northern Iowa comes in with a gritty reputation for stingy defense and not being afraid of the big moment. They have lost by 5 points in each of their past 4 tournament appearances. The #9 seed should be able to knock off UNLV before running int o the buzzsaw at the top of the bracket.

David Beckham & Posh Spice (best matchup): #7 Oklahoma State vs. #10 Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech has as much upside talent as any team south of Kansas, including likely lottery pick Derrick Favors, yet they have been maddeningly inconsistent all season going 8-8 their last 16 games. Oklahoma State has been riding on the shoulders of their All-American candidate James Anderson, which means the Cowboys are capable of making this a high-scoring close battle. Unfortunately for whichever team wins this first rounder, Evan Turner and Ohio State will be waiting to treat them like like Beckham’s achilles tendon.

WEST BRACKET

Theme Song: “Mama Said Knock You Out” by LL Cool J
Maybe the stong is still stuck in my head after the ESPN 30 for 30 special on Reggie Miller, but the song fits for the West bracket. And after I somehow ended up with a British tilt on the Midwest bracket, I needed to bring the West back to the States. The West bracket is wide open with any number of teams capable of knocking one another out.

January Jones (talent to bust out): UTEP (#12 seed)
UTEP cruised to the Conference USA regular season title before wetting themselves in the tournament championship. They have the conference player of the year in Randy Culpepper leading their uptempo attack. Culpepper combined with Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter has the Miners primed to be the best bet for the standard #12 over #5 upset. UTEP is also coached by former John Calipari discipline, so if Tony Barbee does things like his mentor, the Miners need to be successful before the impending NCAA sanctions.

Eva Mendes (best stats): BYU (#7 seed)
BYU has the highest scoring average of the 65 tournament teams, the highest per game point differential (outscoring its opponents by 18.5 points per game), is 3rd in 3-point percentage and the best free throw shooting team. With point guard Jimmer Fredette lighting up scoreboards all season, the Cougars have the ability to score with anyone. However they have not won a tournament game since 1993 and have a first round matchup against a Florida team that is fired up to be back in the tournament for the first time since winning back-to-back titles in 2006 & 2007.

Amanda Seyfried (unknown with potential): Murray State (#13 seed)
There is a rumor that Seyfried has a scene in her next movie where all of her ample talents are put on display. In a related note, Murray State has a chance to get their second all-time NCAA tournament victory when they go up against an overrated Vanderbilt team. The Racers have outscored their opponents by 17 points per game, and are among the nations leaders in rebound margin. They also bring a very balanced attack with 6 players averaging between 10.6 and 9.5 ppg and play tough enough defense to fluster a veteran Commodores squad.

Jake Pavelka & Vienna Girardi (best matchup): #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Florida State
Since this bracket doesn’t have a matchup that looks good on paper, I’m assigning The Bachelor couple that no one liked to the Gonzaga-Florida State game. While I might like the chances of the #12 and #13 seeds in the bracket to advance, it is more a sign of a lack of respect for the #4 and #5 teams than it is a sign of a great matchup. This will be a matchup of the stingy defense of Florida State against the high scoring and shooting Bulldog team – so maybe the couple should be Tenley’s defense against Jake’s advances. We all know Vienna wasn’t playing any defense. Anyway, Florida State has not beaten anyone of consequence outside of the ACC and likely will not be able to score enough to beat Gonzaga.

Check back tomorrow for breakdowns of the East and South brackets……….

Degenerate Friday!! Week 7 Picks

A couple quick links before getting to this week’s picks….

This is a great trivia site to kill tons of time with random useless sports knowledge.

Awesome clip of Brett Myers getting rejected by who I assume is his wife after their NLCS victory – she obviously dislikes the smell of booze or cigars.

The whole Bubble Boy story is just a scary comment on what reality television has done to some people in America. That Heene dude is a complete lunatic and should be locked up, though I’m not sure what’s worse for those kids – to not have their dad around, or to have that nutjob around. And how did he think this would help them get a reality show?

Another .500 week last week, going 7-7, and I just can’t get off the Even Steven fence. So this week, in hopes of getting a big winning week, no tiers, no categories, and no reminiscing about movies, quotes or songs. Just straight picks to take your bookie to the cleaners and buy that even bigger television and faster car. Ah, who am I kidding? Like Ricky Williams and the ganja, I’m just putting the gimmicks aside for a week.

Usual disclaimers……recreational use, home team in CAPS, etc…….

Colts (-13) over RAMS (Craptastic Game of the Week)
They couldn’t have made this spread big enough. The Colts are coming off a bye week and get to play the worst team in the league before an intriguing matchup with the 49ers the following week. Manning puts it in cruise control after the first quarter and lets Addai & Brown clean it up for the rest of the game. Rams can’t score enough points to cover with their pathetic offense.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills
This might be the worst quarterback matchup in the league with turnover machine Jake Delhomme going up against Harvard kid Ryan Fitzpatrick. Panthers will pound the ball on the ground against the Bills’ league-worst rushing defense, giving up more than 180 yards/game. The first Steve Smith remains an afterthought and won’t be needed to beat the Bills.

Patriots (-14.5) over Buccaneers (in London)
The last two years, the game in London has been a 3 point game, but they haven’t seen a team as bad as the Bucs. Belichick has his team in business mode, which typically leads to destruction and embarrassment for inferior opponents. Unless Brady, Moss and Welker get too distracted Keeley Hazell, this shouldn’t be close.

Packers (-9) over BROWNS
The Browns have covered the past two weeks, but have been ravaged by the flu this week. Add to that their leading tackler being out for the season, and the fact that they still have Derek Anderson at quarterback. Packers handled a poor Lions team last week, and if they can keep Rodgers upright, they should not have a problem winning this game by 2 scores.

Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
Even if the Redskins cover or win this game, I’ll feel comfortable with picking the Eagles. I’ll always take a team that has something to prove after puking on themselves the previous week (sorry Donovan) over a team that brought in a consultant two weeks ago, and now handed him the play-calling responsibilities and is trying to get their head coach to quit.

CHIEFS (+4.5) over Chargers
Chargers beat the Chiefs by one point in both meetings last year, and Cassell should be able to put some points on the board against the porous Chargers defense. Norv “Mr. Roper” Turner continues to underachieve, and the Chargers have the worst rushing offense in the league, averaging less than 58 yards/game. And LT has missed practice this week either due to the flu or the “f-you for taking me out at the goalline last week” virus.

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS
This is one of the toughest games to pick this week because no one knows which team will show up on either sideline. The Jets that rolled through the first 3 games this year with limited turnovers and stout defense or the team that stunk the past 3 weeks? The Raiders that looked competitive in week 1 and stumped the Eagles last week or the team that looked like a mess in between? Now that Coach Cable isn’t going to be arrested for assault, the Raiders can just play football. Unfortunately, they still have JaMarcus Russell at QB and that’s enough to tilt it to the Jets.

GIANTS (-7) over Cardinals
Traditionally the Cardinals coming east have fared about as well as Tupac making a trip to New York. But this is a night game, so the time change should be muffled. The Cards seem to have found some of their groove from last year, and with the Giants secondary banged up, they should put points on the board. However, the Giants have something to prove after getting lit up last week by the Saints, and playing at home will help them rebound big.

49ers (+3) over TEXANS
Follow the pattern with the Texans this year: Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. That means this is the week for a loss, which has to make Gary Kubiak feel like he’s sitting in a hillbilly hottub. 49ers have had two weeks to prepare to slow down the NFL leader in TDs, Matt Schaub. Crabtree will start and it won’t take much to be the most dangerous WR for the Niners.

Saints (-6) over DOLPHINS
The trendy pick is the Dolphins because they’re coming off a bye and the wildcat will run through the Saints defense. However, the Dolphins defense is going to get lit up like Pat Summerall in the announcing booth with John Madden. Remember how the Colts handled the Dolphins while barely possessing the ball, winning by 4? The Saints offense is more potent than the Colts and the Saints defense is better than the Colts. Saints roll ‘em up like Ricky Williams in the off-season.

Bears (+1) over BENGALS
The Bengals can’t handle success. They’re the Jessica Simpson of the NFL – as soon as they get a boyfriend and some fans and start to convince you that they have figured things out, they turn around and get a little too comfortable, stop trying and eventually prove that they are still unpredictable and completely crazy. Cedric Benson has something to prove against his former team, but the Bears will be ready and without Antwan Odom, the Bengals won’t be able to stop Cutler and Forte.

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
The logic for the Cowboys is that they’re coming off a bye (league average is 53% winners coming off their byes), are at home, and the Falcons are coming off a night game. Wade Phillips is 5-2 in his career coming off byes, which doesn’t compare to Andy Reid’s 11-0, but is impressive. Yet, the bottom line is that the Cowboys aren’t that good. Do we really believe Miles Austin is a #1 WR after one game – against the 1-5 Chiefs!?!?? Ryan and the Falcons are the best value of the week.

STEELERS (-4.5) over Vikings
Steelers have become a dominant passing team and the Vikings secondary got lit up by Joe Flacco before Antoine Wingfield was injured. Vikings needed a lucky break last week against the Ravens and barely squeeked by the 49ers two weeks earlier. Going into Pittsburgh against the defending champs is a tough order for anyone, and Peterson will find tough sledding against the Steelers defense that is allowing the second-fewest yards per game on the ground.