Degenerate Friday - Conference Championships!!

Before getting to the Conference Championship picks for the weekend, did anyone happen to catch Steven Bardo’s slip while announcing the Indiana-Penn State game last night? He was attempting to “give a lesson” to post players about keeping the ball high, but he instead took a shot at fat girls. “All you big guys and big girls out there, take note.” And of course his broadcasting partner quickly jumped in and reminded him that he meant “post players” and not healthy eaters. Solid.

When looking at the games this weekend, I started looking at movies that were based (in whole or part) in the locations of the games themselves, which meant finding movies based in Indiana or New Orleans. Obviously for Indiana, it was Hoosiers, which has some great parrallels to the AFC Championship game between the Colts & the Jets. The Jets have the brash coach of the underdog, who is probably having the field measured to tell his team that the field is 100 yards in Indy, just like it is in New York.

Aside from Easy Rider being another movie with Dennis Hopper (he was Shooter in Hoosiers and Billy in Easy Rider), it’s based on a motorcycle ride across the country to get to Mardi Gras in New Orleans. The other reason is that I found a quote that works for the game, so I’m just going to go for it. Let’s get right to it and see if I can keep improving, from 0-4 in the wildcard round to 2-2 last week, it’s time for a 2-0 weekend.

Standard weekly disclosures – recreational purposes, spreads from the NY Post, home teams in CAPS, etc.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP – Hoosiers quote from George to Coach Dale

“Look, mister, there's... two kinds of dumb, uh... guy that gets naked and runs out in the snow and barks at the moon, and, uh, guy who does the same thing in my living room. First one don't matter, the second one you're kinda forced to deal with.”

COLTS (-7.5) over Jets

Before getting to the game analysis, how great has Chelcie Ross’s career been? In addition to playing opposite of Gene Hackman in Hoosiers, he was also the veteran pitcher, Ed Harris in Major League, the coach in Rudy, and Connie Hilton in Mad Men. Talk about an underrated career. Anyway, the quote applies pretty well to Rex Ryan and the Jets. He’s now doing his barking in the living room of one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game, and now Peyton Manning is forced to deal with him.

I went back and looked at Manning’s stats in games against teams he played in the regular season and replayed in the post season, and didn’t find an real patterns. But the one historical time I did find which had some interesting parallels was in 2004, when the Colts played the Broncos in the final regular season game, and Peyton threw two passes and rested while the Broncos won to secure a playoff spot. Denver then came to Indy and got smoked 49-24 in the playoffs with Peyton throwing for over 450 yards and 4 touchdowns. Intresting tidbit, except that the Jets have the best running game and best defense in the league. However, digging a little deeper, the Broncos had the 4th best rushing offense that season and the 4th best defense in the league. Another parrallel was with the Colt strong offense where they were 1st in passing offense in 2004 and they were second in 2009. The 2004 Colts defense was worse than their 2009 counterparts, ranking 28th in 2004 and 19th this season. So what does this mean? Probably not all that much, but it is a historical pattern where Manning and the Colts rebound strongly against a tough defense and blew the game open on the fast turf in Indy.

I expect the crowd noise to be a difference maker in this game, and while Sanchez has played tremendous in his first two playoff games, he will need to be perfect to keep the Jets close. If the Colts can score early and get a lead, Sanchez will be forced to throw without the comfort of play action, which allows the speedy defense of the Colts (tremendously faster than the Chargers) to tee off on him. The Colts will use jabs and some dink-and-dunk passes to keep the Jets at a comfortable distance for the majority of the game. The half point hook concerns me a little, but I think Manning and Company march on to Miami.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP – Easy Rider quote from Billy (Dennis Hopper)

“Man, everybody got chicken, that's what happened. Hey, we can't even get into like, a second-rate hotel, I mean, a second-rate motel, you dig? They think we're gonna cut their throat or somethin'. They're scared, man.”

SAINTS (-3.5) over Vikings

In theory this should be the most entertaining football game of the entire season. A potent Saints offense against a stout Vikings defense. The most balanced Vikings offense against the opportunistic Saints defense. Darren Sharper gets a shot at his former Packers teammate Brett Favre & his former team, the Vikings. The reason I chose the quote was partially based on the fact that there really aren’t many memorable movies set in New Orelans. And this movie may even be a little bit of a stretch because it’s about the guys taking a motorcycle ride from LA to New Orleans and their encounters along the way. Anyway, it’s also because this is a scary game for degenerates to get involved with. Betting on this game is the equivalent of asking out Mariah Carey, I mean, I guess it looks good, but you know you’re messing with an unstable, and woman who is larger than she appears on television or pictures.

If the crowd noise affects Favre’s ability to check out of plays, it may make Brad Childress the happiest guy in the building, but it will limit his skills at taking advantage of the blitzing Saints defense. That could force him to make rushed and bad decisions, playing right into the hands of New Orleans. Yet as much as everyone kept expecting him to have that melt down game at some point during the season, he never did. So why would we expect him to suddenly go back to his old ways? The Vikings also will likely try to pound the ball with Adrian Peterson, and they should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Saints defense.

The Saints offense is loaded with weapons and Drew Brees and his merry band of receivers will be able to put points on the board. The Vikings defensive line is banged up, which should open up more running lanes for the Saints than have been there against Minnesota all season. If the Saints can establish any running game, it slows down Jarred Allen, which will give Brees enough time to dissect the Vikings secondary. The game will be a shoot out, not Cardinals-Packers level, but will be back and forth and at the end of the day, the Saints explosive offense will be able to put a few more points on the board than Favre and the Packers. We all know what happened the last time the Saints were in the NFC Championship game against an NFC North team (see picture) but this time they get their first trip to the Super Bowl in franchise history.

LAST ADD: Just to throw a prop bet out there to break any ties in case I somehow end up 1-1, take Pierre Garcon to have the most receiving yards at 10-1 odds. With Revis on Wayne, Garcon will be the quick target for Peyton. And after he catches some dinks and dunks, he might have a shot for a deep one, putting him up around 125 yards, which should be enough. The Viking have Rice, but his odds at 5-2 aren’t that appealing. The Saints spread the ball around too much, and the Braylen Edwards will lead the group in yards lost to drops.

Coaching Past the Expiration Date

I am no fan of Florida State football and definitely not a fan of Bobby Bowden, but the current situation is a complete mess and cannot end well for either side. I mean, we’re talking “Britney Spears marrying that Jason Alexander in Vegas” or “the Atlanta Falcons hiring Bobby Petrino” or “letting Rex Ryan and Andy Reid into an all-you-can-eat buffet” type of disasters.

There is no doubt in my mind that the time has come, well it actually came more than a few years ago, for Bobby to hang it up. His teams have slipped noticeably since 2001, and are now a far cry from the 90s, when Florida State was guaranteed to be in the top 10 and the tomahawk chop was always in a top bowl game. Unfortunately, Bobby’s enormous ego has gotten the best of him, and continues to hang around trying to make sure he tops the other past-his-time old foggie – Joe Paterno – for the all-time wins record. But for that tool from the Board of Trustees to come out with a statement about what Bobby will do was also a stupid move. The guy built FSU into a top-tier program, and even though he has now rode it down to mediocrity, he deserves to go out by being celebrated with class. And if that turd of a trustee really cared about FSU football, he would understand that causing controversy is going to do nothing but hurt the school’s image and destroy recruiting, which guarantees a longer time before the program is relevant.

Bowden started coaching FSU in 1976, and had them in back-to-back Orange Bowls in 1979 and 1980. He then did not lose more than 2 games in a season between 1987 and 2000. Unfortunately, since then, he has lost at least 3 games every season, including 7-6 records in 2007 & 2008. The only positive thing to come out of FSU in the past 9 years has been that fan girl – Jen Sterger.

Speaking of Joe Pa, what are the odds that he retires before he dies? I know it’s a morbid thought, but that crazy old dude is never going to leave. I understand the concept that he has “earned the right” to step down when he wants to, but doesn’t he have any trusted advisors that can give him a sense of reality? He is completely a figure-head, and is not really doing any coaching or recruiting for the team. The only value he is bringing is pity (like when he broke his leg on the sideline) and unintentional comedy (like when a reporter asked him if he wanted the field named after him and he responded with “I don’t think much about being dead.”).

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I think the Braylon Edwards trade has a chance to be a great one for the Jets & for Edwards himself. However I think the Jets should take some precautions to enhance the likelihood of success. Edwards has always been accused of being easily distracted and not focused on being a football player, rather choosing to pay attention to being a star. And obviously, moving to New York could be throwing gasoline on that fire. So I think the Jets should force him to live in New Jersey and ban him from coming into the city. Living in Jersey, he’ll be forced to focus on football, because unless he’s going to be distracted by white cars with dark tinted windows and big rims, big-haired women or cement-gelled hair on dudes, he will have nothing but football to focus on.

The guy is a big-time football talent – a big WR with the speed to get downfield and go up over DBs. He provides a great security blanket for Mark Sanchez, and in the new disciplined environment of Rex Ryan, Edwards could thrive. We’ll see how it actually plays out, but I think the Jets got one last kick of Eric Mangini.

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One final note…..on Deion Sanders, arguably the best player to ever come out of Florida State. What is this guy doing? He has ties to Michael Crabtree’s agent, and is at the heart of the 49ers tampering charges against the Jets. And he was the reason Dez White (one of the best WR in college) of Oklahoma State just lost his eligibility to play college football. Oh, and Deion is employed by the NFL Network, so he’s an employee of the league. Deion, what are you doing? I know you think you’re a businessman, trying a reality TV show, rapping and selling a hot dog cooker……but maybe you should just stick to talking about football in a studio and stay away from college players.

(The quality of the video is terrible, but it seems to be the only one out there).