Degenerate Friday - Sweet 16 Part II

Yesterday I didn’t get a chance to get to the gym and in order to maintain this Adonis physique that I fuel with scotch, beer and wings, I decided to combine a workout with watching the games. I would do 10 push ups for every made three point shot during the games that were on television (meaning if they did a look in and showed a 3 pointer, it’s push up time). It started slowly with Syracuse turning the ball over more than they made shots, but unfortunately for me they turned it up in the second half. Combine that with the ridiculous 3-point bombs Xavier and Kansas State traded late in regulation and both overtimes, and I ended up doing 370 push ups last night. So if my typing becomes as clear as why Kei$ha uses a dollar sign in her name (or why she’s a pseudo-celebrity), it’s because I’ve lost feeling in my arms. At least I was able to get the two late games correct to end up 2-2 last night. And I’m especially happy to see Cornell head home after they finally cooled off from behind the arc and faced an athletic team that could switch on screens (something Wisconsin and Temple could not do because their bigs are not athletic enough to keep up with the Cornell guards). Anyway……on to the Friday games.

Game #1: #2 Ohio State (-4.5) vs. #6 Tennessee

The Volunteers are easy to root for because they have a lovable coach in Bruce Pearl, play an inordinate number of walk-ons, and have gotten better after dismissing one of their more talented players because he was a jag off. Scottie Hopson can fill it up from the outside and Wayne Chism is a tough match up inside if he is plugged in. Unfortunately for the Vols he gets frustrated too easily and disappears for long stretches. Against a well-rounded but thin Ohio State team, they can’t afford to allow the Buckeyes to come up for air. William Bufford will likely have the assignment of controlling Hopson and Dallas Lauderdale will try to slow Chism, though Lauderdale is way too slow to stop him on the perimeter. If Tennessee can stay hot from outside the arc, they have a chance to make a game of it, but if they have even an average game, the Buckeyes will be more than they can handle.

And we haven’t even mentioned Evan Turner, the best player in the game. Turner will face a difficult matchup against JP Prince because Prince is long and quick defensively. In a previous collumn I already compared Turner to Marissa Miller with a supporting cast of the rest of the Victoria Secret models. I’m going to stick with that theme and I guess that makes Bufford, Lighty and Jon Diebler the Miranda Kerr, Candice Swanepoel and Alessandra Ambrossio of the big dance. The Victoria’s Secret models are enough to distract Bruce Pearl and Vols, giving the Buckeyes the edge they need.

Gambler’s Delight: Ohio State (-4.5)

Game #2: #3 Baylor (-5) vs. #10 St. Mary’s

If a game is played Houston and no one pays attention, does it really happen? This is the most overlooked game of the sweet 16 because it pits an underdog from a small western conference against an upstart team from a big conference that doesn’t have the tradition of its big conference colleagues. Yet Omar Samhan has arguably been the most dominant player in the entire tournament during the first weekend for St. Mary’s and Baylor has quietly taken care of business all season. The Bears rank in the top 12 of the nation in field goal percentage, field goal percentage allowed, rebound margin, blocks per game and scoring margin. Pretty impressive stats for a team of mostly unknown players outside of the Big 12.

Baylor has the size inside with Ekpe Udoh and Josh Lomers to do battle with Samhan, something that neither Villanova or Richmond had. Baylor also has strong guards in Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn to compliment the inside game. Will that be enough to overtake the Australian sharpshooters of St. Mary’s? The Bears are like Talulah Riley - successful, well-rounded, yet it might just be the name that is holding them back from being an a-lister.

Gambler’s Delight: Baylor (-5)

Game #3: #5 Michigan State (-1) vs. #9 Northern Iowa

Everyone is jumping on the Northern Iowa bandwagon after they knocked off Kansas and Michigan State lost their best player to injury. Yet something tells me that the experience of Tom Izzo and Michigan State in the tournament gets more valuable as the tournament progresses. (Yes, Kansas had experience as well, but they had Bill Self) Northern Iowa returned home to be treated like rockstars and their coach Ben Jacobsen was given a well-deserved 10-year contract extension. All of that adds up to a little loss of focus and an Izzo team only needs a crack to force their way in the door.

I think Korie Lucious learned a valuable lesson when Kalen Lucas was out earlier in the year and I expect him to play much more in control than he did in his start against Illinois. I also expect the Michigan State guards to harass the Northern Iowa backcourt more than Kansas did and not allow as many open looks from beyond the arc. I really like the story of Northern Iowa, but in the end, the experience, poise and physical play of the Spartans will be too much for the Huskies, setting up an all-Big Ten Regional Final. When it comes down to it, I’d take George Clooney’s injured ex-girlfriend, Sarah Larson, over Miss Iowa.

Gambler’s Delight: Michigan State (-1)

Game #4: #1 Duke (-8.5) vs. #4 Purdue

This game matches up the team that everyone wants to get eliminated (Duke) against the team that everyone thought already would be eliminated (Purdue). Yet both teams continue to win and are just two wins away from the Final Four. Duke has many similarities to Jude Law because you hate him for having blown it with Sienna Miller the first time around, yet you have to admit the guy has talent and his movies draw you to the theatre and are successful over and over again. Duke is playing extremely well and has an experienced backcourt, solid shooting and Brian Zoubek has given them an inside presence they were missing. They have all of the ingredients to continue marching to Indy.

Purdue was among the teams to beat with Robbie Hummel and seems to have figured out how to play without him in wins over Siena and Texas A&M. The Boilermakers are a difficult matchup for Duke because they play physical stingy defense which can throw off the usually soft Duke squad (see their loss at Wisconsin early in the year). The Boilers also have the right personnel to match up, with Chris Kramer attached to Jon Scheyer’s hip pocket, E’Twaan Moore blanketing Kyle Singler and JaJuan Johnson able to match Zoubek. The Purdue defense will keep them in the game and make it close at the end, but expect Duke to pull out the straight up win.

Gambler’s Delight: Purdue (+8.5)
(take Duke to win straight up)

Saturday & Sunday Games:

#1 Kentucky vs. #2 West Virginia

Expect the young Wildcats to complete their march to the Final Four in a game that may not be pretty on the eyes. West Virginia wants to ugly up the game the way Sarah Jessica Parker does to any show, movie or photo she appears in. Like a New Jersey frat guy in a spring break club, the Moutaineers prefer to grind it out ugly-style. Kentucky should be able to break down the Mountaineers offensively and stymy the WVU offense. John Wall is as fast as anyone I’ve ever seen with the basketball in his hand and is an automatic one-man fast break when he gets a rebound. Look for Kentucky to get to the Final Four.

#2 Kansas State vs. #5 Butler

I have been a hater of Butler ever since my first college basketball breakdown column. I still don’t really know what they do well. They didn’t shoot well against Syracuse, had too many turnovers, and allowed a poor playing Orange team to stay in the game too long. Yet they keep winning. Can they keep it up against K-State? No. Look for the Faces of Frank Martin to march on to Indianapolis behind the sharpshooting of Denis Clemente and Mos Def look-alike, Jacob Pullen. The unsung hero for the Wildcats has been the UConn transfer Curtis Kelly who displayed a great array of moves around the basket and the ability to face up and knock down a jumper against Xavier. He could be the difference maker against Butler.

Assuming I’m correct in picking Friday night’s games……..

#2 Ohio State vs. #5 Michigan State

Ohio State is too familiar with the Spartans to not be ready for their physical play and lack of offense without Kalen Lucas. Izzo’s motivation and schemes can only carry a gimped team so far. Buckeyes Victoria Secret fashion show rolls to the Final Four.

#1 Duke vs. #3 Baylor

Baylor has the athletes to keep it close, and will have the home court advantage with the game being played in Houston. Yet their lack of experience will prove too much to overcome and the Blue Devils make their reservations for Indy.

Breaking Down the Field (Part II)

UPDATE: Join the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge! It's free to join. Click here for details.

Let’s get right to the continuation of the top 25 breakdown. For the top 13 teams, please see yesterday’s post by clicking here. And good night UConn - can we please stop talking about them? They are not on the bubble, and cannot even see the bubble they are so far away after mailing it in last night against St. John's.

14. BYU Cougars
Why They Will: They can score points. They have scored over 100 three times and over 90 points on 6 other occasions. Yet the amazing part is that they only gave up over 80 three times, losing two of those 3 games. Guard Jimmer Fredette averages over 20 points a game and just dropped 49 on TCU last week. Much like an Australian model, they have talent, though it’s mostly unknown and you probably don’t want to cast her as the star of your blockbuster movie.

Why They Won’t: They are not battle tested, with no signature wins (Arizona & Arizona St do not qualify as quality victories. In addition, they were swept by New Mexico during the regular season.

Bottom Line: Their ability to score can make them a tough matchup in the first round, but they will struggle to get much further than that.

15. Tennessee Volunteers
Why They Will: They have already beaten both Kansas and Kentucky, the top two teams in the country during the season. They play pressure defense and have one of the more charismatic coaches in the country in Bruce Pearl. With Scotty Hopson playing like he is capable combining with Wayne Chism, this team has the skills to make a long run.

Why They Won’t: Since they jettisoned Tyler Smith from the team, the Vols have jelled, but they are not deep and have been extremely inconsistent. Are they too emotional? Like Katy Perry, they can wow you at times, but you know it’s going to be a rollercoaster ride.

Bottom Line: This is a team that will be very dependent upon their seeding. They have the talent to get to the elite eight, but they could also be ripe for a first round flop if they get a disciplined, methodic team from a mid-major conference.

16. Pittsburgh Panthers
Why They Will: Jamie Dixon teams are always tough defensively and bring full effort on every play. They are Christina Aguilera, a little rough around the edges, tough, and kind of a scary matchup.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have a consistent enough scoring threat, which can be a problem in the clutch. They are only 5-5 when they give up 70 points or more, and are 19-2 when they keep teams under 70, which will be tough if they get deep against some of the more prolific offensive teams.

Bottom Line: Their defense will propel them into the sweet 16, at which point they will likely run into a team that can play enough defense to stifle the Panther attack and send Pittsburgh home.

17. Temple Owls
Why They Will: The Owls have shown flashes of brilliance, beating Villanova, Penn State, Seton Hall and Virginia Tech. They tied for the conference title in the surprisingly tough Atlantic-10, which was a better conference than the Pac-10 this season.

Why They Won’t: They got annihilated by Kansas at home, and don’t have anyone averaging more than 14.5 points per game. Like Jenna Fischer, they are among the top choices in a small town/conference for the girl-next-door type. Unfortunately, the bright lights of the tournament want more flash.

Bottom Line: Their disciplined play will allow them to avoid an early upset, but they will be the #4 or #5 seed that the cinderella teams are hoping to catch in the second round. But look at the bright side, they still have Bill Cosby as their most recognizable fan.

18. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Why They Will: Like Butler, their status as an underdog expired a few years ago. They don’t sneak up on anyone, yet they continue to dominate their conference during the regular season.

Why They Won’t: Because they don’t sneak up on anyone anymore, they are consistently overseeded at this point, potentially protecting them in the opening round. Like Kathryn Heigl, they went from underrated to overrated and were exposed as lacking the talent to compete with the best competition.

Bottom Line: They are a prime candidate to get knocked off in the first round in a 12-5 or 11-6 upset.

19. Maryland Terrapins
Why They Will: Their best player, Greivis Vasquez, is not afraid of the big moment, and he actually thrives on them. They tied for the ACC regular season title, and have Shooter from Hoosiers stalking the sidelines – Gary Williams.

Why They Won’t: Vasquez has the ability to make or break a team, because when he’s hot he’s as good as anyone. Yet when he’s cold, he’s too arrogant to know that he should look to contribute in ways other than heaving another 3-pointer. Like Sienna Miller, they can draw you in with her flashes of talent, but you’re not sure if she’s stable enough that you want to hitch your wagon to them for the long-term.

Bottom Line: Because the ACC was unbelievably weak this year, the co-champs of the conference will likely end up as a #5 or #6 seed, which means they are in danger of a first-round flame out. Expect them to sneak through to the second round, where they will be dropped.

20. Vanderbilt Commodores
Why They Will: You cannot write off a team that won at Tennessee and swept Florida with an inside-outside attack from Jermaine Beal and AJ Ogilvy. They are like Rachel Bilson – well-rounded, and very likeable.

Why They Won’t: Consistency has not been their strength, evidenced by losses to Western Kentucky, Cincinnati and at Georgia. They have the talent to play with most teams, but they don’t seem to have the focus, which brings into question the ability of their coach to take them to the next level.

Bottom Line: They appear to be a prime candidate for a first round upset due to their inconsistency. They tend to play up or down to their competition which could lead them to losing to a Sienna or the other upset sweethearts.

21. Baylor Bears
Why They Will: They are very overlooked in the sneaky tough Big 12, where they swept Texas and Oklahoma and beat Arizona State on the road. Like Tina Fey, they are sneaky attractive, in that you don’t think about them in that way at first. But then after you look past the 2003 incident where a Bear player was convicted of killing a teammate, the school brought in Scott Drew (brother of NCAA Tournament legend Bryce Drew) who has turned the program around.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the required go-to guy that can generate his own offense when things break down. That’s the biggest weakness I can see on this sleepy team that no one is talking about.

Bottom Line: They are a great sleeper pick to get to the elite eight, as they have a team that plays well together and if they get hot, could knock off a top seed in the sweet 16.

22. Georgetown Hoyas
Why They Will: They have the Lt. Aldo Raines coach in John Thompson III, a leader that the players believe in and will do whatever he needs them to do. That measured approach to the game allows them to play well in big games because the team doesn’t get overly emotional. They also have the Jenni Farley, “J-Woww”, frontcourt with Greg Monroe and a guard in Austin Freeman that everyone is rooting for after learning he is dealing with diabetes.

Why They Won’t: They are not a great outside shooting team, and despite the strong play of Monroe & Freeman, they go into scoring droughts which can be the end of teams in the tournament.

Bottom Line: This is a team that lost to Syracuse, beat Duke, lost to South Florida and then beat Villanova all within 2 weeks. Yet, when they are hot, they are as good as anyone, and it would not surprise me to see them in the elite eight.

23. Texas A&M Aggies
Why They Will: Like Maggie Gylenhaal, some people are into this team, yet I don’t really understand how or why they are successful. The Aggies finished tied for second in the Big 12, and played Kansas close during their only meeting. They play tough defense and can grind it out in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: They don’t still have Acie Law, do they? Because he was pretty good and that was a Texas A&M team that had the skills to go deep in the tournament. They can’t win without Law.

Bottom Line: Another team ripe for a first round upset, and if they do manage to get by the opening round, they will be cannon fodder in the second round.

24. Xavier Muskateers
Why They Will: Like Anne Hathaway, they are disciplined, a little uptight and talented. They are still a mid-major from the Atlantic-10, yet they are viewed as closer to one of the big boys. Guard Jordan Crawford leads a strong offensive attack and has the ability to take over games when needed.

Why They Won’t: They played a fairly tough schedule, but did not come away with a signature non-conference win, losing to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State and Wake Forest, and beating LSU & Cincy.

Bottom Line: if they can snag a #6 seed, they will be a dangerous matchup for the #3 seed in the second round. Look for them to win one and then be eliminated.

25. UTEP Miners
Why They Will: This is the school that hasn’t been relevant since they produced a third of the best backcourt in the NBA – “Run TMC” in Golden State. Tim Hardaway is a UTEP alum and made famous his cross-over which he called the UTEP-Two-Step. In his honor, they get the Kim Kardashian backcourt award. Does this UTEP team actually have a strong backcourt? I have no idea.

Why They Won’t: Quick – name the conference UTEP plays in! You can’t. Most people can’t. It’s Conference USA, which has been dominated by Memphis for years. They have a high-scoring guard in Randy Culpepper, but they have not beaten anyone of note outside their conference.

Bottom Line: They are the classic team for the 8-9 seed matchup in the first round, meaning it will be a tough call in the first round, and then they will get blown out by a top seed.

So there it is – The Sports Addict breaks down the top 25 like no one else. We will continue to focus on the tournament as we are only 8 days away from Degenerate Christmas when the tournament tips off. It’s the most wonderful time…..of the year…….

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Throwing a Flag on Referee Bashing

I think I’ve had enough of the players and talking-heads and media bashing officials in every sport. Yes, these guys make mistakes. Yes, these guys miss calls. Yes, they make bad calls. Yes, they make good calls. But let’s stop the whining, crying and continually hanging these guys out to dry. With the exception of Tim Donaghy, who was a gambling degenerate and obviously attempting to fix games, I believe these guys make calls based on what they see. And let’s not forget that all of the broadcasters and couch potatoes are watching super-slow-motion replays in high definition 65” televisions with 5 different angles and camera views. It’s much easier to get the call right when you have a 360 degree view and can slow down and rewind it and play it over and over. The ref has to make the call at full speed with a screaming crowd and big fast athletes making things happen faster than it has ever happened before and they have a split second to decide what they saw.

There have been an incredible number of bad calls in all sports recently. The umpire completely flubbed a fair/foul call in the Yankees-Twins series. His only job is to watch foul balls down the line (they have an extra 2 umps in the playoffs) and he screwed up an obvious call. The 1st base umpire blew a call on Chase Utley in the 9th inning of the Phillies-Rockies game. There have been 3-4 questionable calls in the NFL on catches where the receiver goes to the ground after catching the ball (Louis Murphy in week 2, Mike Sims-Walker 2 weeks ago, etc.). And if you go back to last year, Ed Hauchuli’s call in the Denver-SD game was inexplicable. And let’s not even talk about the NBA, where the refs are horrendous, and calls are based more on the score and the players involved than what actions actually take place.

But the bottom-line is this: The calls stink, but they’re going to happen and it reminds me of what our youth coaches used to say all the time “The game is not decided by one play.” If a guy doesn’t drop a pass, strikeout, or miss a field goal earlier in the game, it wouldn’t be close at the end of the game. So blaming the referees is a futile and useless exercise. So shut up and make plays earlier in the game and it won’t come down to one fair/foul call or a pass-interference call in the fourth quarter.

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The baseball playoff schedule stinks. I understand that the television networks are paying huge cash for the broadcast rights, so they have all the power to schedule the games. But to have a 3 day lull without games completely takes away the momentum for the fans. The Yanks and Angels both closed out their first round series on Sunday and now don’t play until Friday night. The Phillies-Dodgers series starts Thursday, so only a couple day break, but it just seems that in today’s ADD world, 2 days will cause people to forget. Kind of like Sienna Miller - she hasn't done a movie in a while, so people forget how talented she is.

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What a bizarre situation with Stephen Jackson of the Warriors. I’m not sure what I’m more amazed by, the fact that he has demanded a trade and listed the teams that he’s demanding to be traded to, or the fact that he racked up 5 fouls and a technical foul in 9 minutes of an exhibition game. He then yelled at Don Nelson and left the bench. Seems like a Ron Burgundy moment – “What? You pooped in the refrigerator? And you ate the whole... wheel of cheese? How'd you do that? Heck, I'm not even mad; that's amazing.

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Oh, and Brett Favre thinks this is the most talented team he’s ever been on? Isn’t that the same line he used before the 2007 season? And this team which still has 11 games to play is better than the 1996 team that won the Super Bowl? Or the 1997 team that lost a Super Bowl because Coach Walrus Holmgren stopped preparing for the game because he was planning his move to Seattle? What’s the matter Brett? Were you suffering from an attention hangover because you only played the lowly Rams this week and Adrian Peterson got the headlines? While he continues to be effective on the field, he continues to be a media-whore and a d-bag off the field.