Degenerate Friday - Week 3

Computer issues saved you from losing money with my 8-8 picks last week, so you’re welcome for that. Now we’re on to the next week, where teams find themselves on the verge of losing their seasons before they hit the one quarter mark of the season. Are we ready to make conclusions about teams? Probably not. Remember last year when Josh McDaniels and the Broncos started 6-0 before the bottom fell out? So let’s not get too ahead of ourselves after just a few weeks and then be surprised when the truth comes out. Kind of like the categories for the games this week….celebrity surprises during the past couple weeks.

Standard disclosures apply: Picks are for recreational purposes only, spreads from the NY Post, and home teams in CAPS.

The Paris Hilton Tier

Paris was rejected from Japan this week. Not a major surprise, but then again, it was surprising that she was wearing clothes and wasn’t on a boat.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Bills

What happened to that dynamic CJ Spiller guy who was wearing a Bills jersey in the preseason? The Bills offense has been absolutely horrendous, so while this is a ton of points to lay, it may only take three scores by the Patriots to cover. So when Chan Gailey says that he doesn’t see much difference between Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick, is that an insult to both of them?

Raiders (+4) over CARDINALS

I have been playing the Raiders all season and they’ve yet to pay off. Is this the week with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback? Considering he’s up against the worst quarterback in the league outside of Buffalo in Derek Anderson, I think it is. Is Larry Fitzgerald going to snap after yet another pass sails 5 yards over his head?

SEAHAWKS (+5.5) over Chargers

Chargers laid the lumber last week to Jacksonville and their offense seemed to find the rhythm they couldn’t find in the rain in Kansas City in week 1. So laying 5.5 against a Seattle team that lost to Denver last week shouldn’t be a problem, right? Wrong. Just like Paris Hilton, when the light is shined on them at the right angle (on the road in Seattle), the Chargers have some significant flaws and will be missing Ryan Matthews who has a banged up ankle.

Colts (-5.5) over BRONCOS

Peyton Manning will let you know when it’s safe to bet against the Colts, and after last week’s dismantling of his little brother, the Colts look ready to roll. Add to that the emotional week the Broncos have just had with the death of one of their wide receivers, and Denver could not have found a worse opponent.

The Demi Moore Tier

Ashton Kutcher was busted for cheating on Moore with an extremely average looking girl. Are we surprised that Kutcher is an idiot? He made his career by acting like an idiot on That 70’s Show, acting like an idiot on Punk’d, and being a cougar-hunting idiot. Maybe he was just never acting….

Lions (+11) over VIKINGS

Let me get this straight. The Lions have lost on a terrible call to the Bears and by 3 to the Eagles, and they’re suddenly giving double digits to an 0-2 team that has scored 19 TOTAL points in two weeks? There is a reason the casinos are so big in Vegas, but this is not one of them. The Old Gunslinger hasn’t found a WR he can trust and the difference of philosophy between him and Coach Childress continues to widen.

RAVENS (-10.5) over Browns

Despite the Ravens offensive woes to start the season, the best medicine is playing against the woeful Browns. The Ravens have gone up against the tough Jets defense and the underrated Bengals defense, so their struggles have been blown out of proportion. And I didn’t even have to mention that Seneca Wallace is starting again for the Browns.

Bengals (-3) over PANTHERS

Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Clausen by taking on a Bengals defense that ate pre-season darling Joe Flacco’s lunch last week. Clausen struggling in his debut is less surprising than J-Woww posing in Playboy. Doesn’t it seem like Hugh is overpaying for her pictures? Would it really take more than a bottle of booze and a couple of compliments whispered in her ear?

Eagles (-3) over JAGUARS

Michael Vick is the Boston Cream donut in the Eagles locker room and Andy Reid can’t get enough. He’s so in love with his Boston Cream that he has smashed the chocolate sprinkles donut that he’s been telling everyone he loves for the past 6 months. And that came after he dumped his first love – the Long John donut because it kept making him choke. Maybe Reid just likes donuts.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS

So do we look at the Redskins team that build a 17 point lead against the dangerous Texans or do we look at the Redskins team that blew a 17 point lead against the dangerous Texans? I don’t know, nor do I care. What I do care about is that a spread of barely over a field goal against one of the worst teams in the league should be covered.

The Randy Quaid Tier

Did you see the story where Randy and his wife were arrested for squatting in a house they used to own? Uncle Eddie has definitely fallen on some tough times and he sure looks like it’s been a long, strange journey.

CHIEFS (+2.5) over 49ers

The 49ers are coming off a game in which they played very well against the Saints, but playing in Kansas City is a different story. While Matt Cassel has played awful, the Chiefs will need to rely on their special teams and running game to generate points.

Titans (+3) over GIANTS

Lost in all the attention that the Jets have generated the past few weeks is that the Giants are not very good. They were able to beat a terrible Panthers team despite turning the ball over more times than Lindsay Lohan returns to rehab. Then they got splattered by the Colts. The Titans crushed the Raiders and then were shut down by what has thus far been the best defense in the league, the Steelers. Look for Chris Johnson to get back much closer to his 2500 yard pace.

Steelers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

It doesn’t matter who the Steelers start at quarterback as long as their defense remains as good as they have been. The Josh Freeman leading the young Tampa squad is a nice story, but beating Carolina and Cleveland hardly gives them a boost in the BCS standings.

Jets (+2) over DOLPHINS

This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. The Jets are kind of like Randy Quaid, highly entertaining, but you have to wonder if there are some serious problems behind the outward shell. The Dolphins are 2-0 and can build themselves a nice little lead in the division with a win over the Jets, but they have feasted on a poor Bills offense and a struggling Vikings offense.

The Kelly McGillis Tier

This was the shocker of the week. Kelly was everyone’s favorite military flight instructor in the 80’s blockbuster, Top Gun, and she got married this week…to a woman. I mean, it really kind of changes all the news you have heard recently about “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

SAINTS (-6) over Falcons

Even without Reggie Bush, the Saints offense has a ton of weapons. The Falcons hammered the Cardinals last week and they are at home, but I think the Saints will have recovered from their trip out west in time.

TEXANS (-3) over Cowboys

I really can’t imagine the Cowboys starting the year 0-3. Then again, I never imagined Kelly McGillis playing for the other team – not that there’s anything wrong with that. The Texans have won their first two games, first with a dominant running game and then with a dominant passing game. Look for them to light up the Cowboys in Houston.

Packers (-3) over BEARS

The Bears have proven to be legit thus far, and winning at Dallas last week was impressive. Yet it’s starting to be apparent that the Cowboys may not be as good as we expected, so it does come with a grain of salt. And the Bears should have lost in week 1 to Detroit. If the Packers can generate any kind of running game to keep the Bears defense honest, expect Green Bay to blow them out. Will Ted Thompson finally make a trade for a running back? Here’s a great read about his failed attempts to get Randy Moss a few years back, which makes you think that TT may not be able to trade for Marshawn Lynch like he should.

I'm Back! NFL 2010 Preview MegaPost

Well, I guess I’m like Brett Favre and herpes….you just can’t get rid of me. It’s been ages, but with football season about to kick off it’s time to get back at it and posting regularly. This whole blog started last year with a season preview, so it’s only fitting to get back to work with a season preview/prediction column and wrap in a Degenerate Friday Week 1 picks. And while it is easy on the eyes to watch Caroline Wozniacki play in the U.S. Open, it’s football that really gets us fired up. On a side note – I’m hoping Wozniacki makes the finals because I’ll be there Saturday night. Let’s get right to it…..no gimmicks, no categories, just a full break down of how I see the NFL season playing out.

I break down the season slightly different than most people – most analysts go through and pick their Super Bowl teams and then back their way into records for every team. I go through the entire league schedule and pick every game, then totaling up what records the teams will end up having. The good part is that it doesn’t fall prey to preconceived notions and it definitely allows a tough schedule to have an effect on a team’s final record. The down side is that I end up with some surprises that I may not have made otherwise, as you’ll see with this year’s AFC playoff teams. And I still ended up with 2 new playoff teams in each conference, which is close to the typical 5 teams that surprise people.

Breaking it down by division then a playoff prediction, starting in the NFC

NFC East

Dallas (10-6)

The Cowboys have talked themselves into believing they are a Super Bowl favorite despite bringin

g back most of the team that got drubbed by the Vikings in last year’s playoffs. I expect Marion Barber to have a big season – did you know the guy played last year with a hole in his quad muscle? Think about that – a freaking HOLE in his quad!! Now that he’s healthy, he’s a battering ram that will open up the field for Miles Austin to go deep and Dez Bryant to be a monster. Their offense will be as good as any in the league and their attacking defense will be enough to carry them to the division crown.

NY Giants (9-7)

I don’t actually think the Giants are that good. Yet their schedule falls pretty nicely for them and I think they have enough pieces to be in the mix. Nobody likes Eli Manning, but the guy threw for over 4,000 yards last year and obviously has the support of his team. The NFC East is a lot like the Kardashians in that everyone thinks they’re famous and are a big deal, but stop and think about it for a minute. Kim has some incredible assets (like the Cowboys) and the rest of the family is only famous by association. By association, I guess that makes the Giants equal to Courtney, the next best in the family. And now it’s time to get to the ugly family members…..

Philadelphia (7-9)

So the equation that irrational Eagles fans are selling is Andy Reid equals a winning record. Well when you subtract McNabb and Westbrook and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, and add in a first year starter in Kevin Kolb, it changes things considerably. Kolb may turn out to be a very good quarterback, but even Aaron Rodgers struggled in his first year as a starter. I personally think Kolb does not have the dynamic fire needed to be a premiere quarterback in the league, but he does have enough physical skills to ensure the Eagles stay close.

Washington (6-10)

I saw that the Sports Guy picked the Skins as his sleeper team and has them in the playoffs. I’d like to see that just to stick it to the Eagles and their ridiculous fans. McNabb still has gas in the tank and will definitely be motivated, but he has no one to throw the ball to and the Skins are dealing with the pain in the ass that is Albert Haynesworth. New Sheriff Shanahan will eventually lead them to success, but it won’t be this year.

NFC South

New Orleans (11-5)

The Saints offense is still as dangerous as Dan Hampton on an open microphone. (The former Bear Hampton is the one that said the Vikings should hit New Orleans “like Katrina” and that the Cowboys were “brokeback cowboys” in one show – that’s a helluva performance right up there with Mel Gibson) They have a premiere quarterback, premiere coach, attacking defense and adaptable receiving and running threats. That’s enough to be there deep in the playoffs.

Atlanta (11-5)

I thought the Falcons would break out last year and they got bit by the injury bug slowing their quarterback, running back and slot receiver. This year with a healthy Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Harry Douglas, the Falcons look poised to challenge for the division title. The Falcons could be that team to makes the leap to elite and makes a deep run in the playoffs.

Carolina (8-8)

Their biggest improvement was the removal of the Human Turnover Machine, Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. However, Matt Moore will struggle now that teams can scheme to stop him. They also lost Julius Peppers and Steve Smith hasn’t played since breaking his arm. Oh, and don’t forget they have a lame duck coach that will be moving on after the season and despite the running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, this smells like a .500 team.

Tampa Bay (2-14)

The Bucs have some nice pieces in place for future success, but the immediate future looks painful.

NFC West

San Francisco (9-7)

They are the tallest midget. The NFC West is hideous, and the Niners could run away with the division by barely being over .500. They have the defense that is the fiery design of Mike Singletary and offensive weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabree. If Alex Smith can effectively use his VD and Crabs, it will open things up for Gore and a successful season.

Arizona (8-8)

This text from my brother in Phoenix pretty much summed it up in the desert: “So do I really have to get behind Derek Anderson this season? But I guess it’s better than Leinart.” Anderson has a strong arm which could be beneficial to Larry Fitzgerald, but he has problems telling the difference between his receivers and defensive backs. Having 4 cupcake games against Seattle and St. Louis allows them to stay in the hunt, but Cardinal fans should start preparing for the Max Hall era which may start after a 1-4 start and a bye week.

Seattle (4-12)

Pete Carroll was able to get out of Southern Cal before the shit hit the fan, but he managed to jump right int

o another steaming pile when he went north up the coast. He has almost completely turned over the roster which would be a good thing since the Seahawks were bad, but then when you factor in Carroll’s lack of success in past NFL stints and the overall lack of success of college coaches in the pros, it is a pretty scary proposition.

St. Louis (2-14)

Well, it does appear that Sam Bradford has many of the intangibles and that can help someday return the Rams to respectability. Unfortunately that someday is not this year. Strap on that helmet tight, Sam and live to fight another season.

NFC North

Green Bay (11-5)

The Packers have the favorite for league MVP at quarterback have a healthier offensive line to give him more

time to use his considerable arsenal of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones. The secondary will be tested early without Al Harris and Atari Bigby but they get a scheduling break playing poor or less established passing games early in the year – Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Miami. That could allow the Packers to get off to a very fast start and could carry them to the division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota (9-7)

The Vikings are dealing with plenty of questions after a very successful previous season. Can

Favre hold up? Who is going to be their receiving threat? Is their defense too old? Will the rest of the team resent the special treatment that Diva Favre has gotten? Does anyone like Coach Childress?

Hard to imagine a team going to the Super Bowl when the quarterback hates the coach and the rest of the team doesn’t like either one of them.

Detroit (5-11)

Like Blake Lively, the Lions are bursting with young assets. With the addition of Suh and VandeBosch on the defensive line, the Lions could slow a few offenses, which will give Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best the opportunity to outscore some teams. While 5-11 doesn’t seem like a big jump, when you’re in Detroit, it’s reason to celebrate.

Chicago (5-11)

Coach on the hot seat? Check. Overrated quarterback with an attitude problem? Check. Arrogant offensive coordinator with only one success in his career? Check. Overpaid for a notoriously lazy defensive lineman? Check. Get the fan base excited about signing a third down back? Check. Sounds like another crappy season in Chicago.

AFC East

New England (11-5)

The Patriots are back to where they prefer, under the radar. And Randy Moss is in a contract year, which means he has the potential for a monster year. After last season’s schedule, this year’s slate looks easier than J-Woww after a couple shots of tequila. As long as Brady can keep his Bieber hair out of his eyes, he’ll have a solid arsenal of receiving weapons. Can the Patriots stop anyone? Maybe not, but they will have the offensive firepower to outscore most teams.

NY Jets (10-6)

The Jets remind me of the Seinfeld episode about “The Race” when George pretends he hasn’t seen Jerry since high school and goes on a rant about the millions he made as an architect. Jerry’s response: “You really built yourself up into something, didn’t you?” And that is extremely applicable to the Jets. They were 9-7 last

year. They brought in a bunch of big name veterans past their prime. They got a break to even get into the playoffs. Is that enough to make them Super Bowl favorites? I don’t think so.

Miami (8-8)

The Dolphins have addressed their biggest need, which was a playmaking wide receiver who could actually, you know, catch. They got Brandon Marshall who when paired with Chad Henne give the Dolphins a very potent offense. Unfortunately they face a deadly stretch of games at GB, Pit, at Cin, at Bal, and Ten. If they go 2-3 during that stretch it would be a heck of a

n accomplishment.

Buffalo (5-11)

The Bills managed to find themselves a dynamic game changer in CJ Spiller, but unfortunately they still have Trent Edwards at QB, a leaky offensive line and a defensive line that can’t slow anyone. Could Spiller be a poor man’s Barry Sanders?

AFC South

Indianapolis (13-3)

Every year you start with Indy at 12 wins and then adjust it up or down a game or two. I ex

pect Peyton to bounce back from his Super Bowl pick-6 and be in F-U mode most of the season. Add to that the embarrassment of weapons he has at his disposal and the Colts will blast through the regular season like Justi

n Timberlake blew through the hottest women in Hollywood before settling on Jessica Biel.

Houston (11-5)

Every year people expect the Texans to break through. Every year they let

everyone down. It’s kind of like sending Lindsay Lohan to rehab – when are we finally going to give up on her putting it all together? Well, I’m giving the Texans one last chance because if they just do the simple things, they have the talent to be successful. They have a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a strong defense to go with a QB who is solid in the regular season. That should be enough with their schedule.

Tennessee (7-9)

I have no clue what to expect from this team. Two years ago they went 13-3. Last year they started 0-8 and got blasted 59-0 by the Patriots. Yet they have one of the fastest RBs in the league in Chris Johnson who expects to get 2,500 yards this season. Vince Young and his “Uncle Rico” motion isn’t pretty, but he has been able t

o lead the team to wins. Yet I don’t see this team keeping up with the elite in their division.

Jacksonville (4-12)

Can’t we just move this team to LA and get it over with? No one in Jacksonville would even notice if they were

gone. They might be the most non-descript team in the league with their only star a running back with a knee extremely close to needing a scope that will knock him out for 2-3 weeks at a minimum.

AFC West

San Diego (11-5)

I expected to have this team fall off considerably this year with a rookie bell cow running back and the loss of Vincent Jackson to a hold out. Yet their schedule is so soft, even Norv Turner can lead this team to double-digit wins.

Oakland (9-7)

The Raiders are a lot better than people think. Despite the crazy Al Davis, they have quietly put together a great offseason with the drafting of a game changing linebacker and the trade for a serviceable quarterback in Jas

on Campbell. Campbell relied heavily on his TE, Chris Cooley in Washington, which bodes well for the stats of Zach Miller this season. Look for the Raiders to surprise some people this year and be in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of the year.

Kansas City (8-8)

Thomas Jones will be key to keeping Jamaal Charles fresh, yet the Chiefs still have too many holes defensively to get over the .500 hump.

Denver (6-10)

It now seems pretty obvious that the 6-0 start last year was the aberration. Josh McDaniels put himself in the cross-hairs with his love affair with Tim Tebow, but that is dangerous considering Timmy T is not ready to be the starter. Without Brandon Marshall and with a banged up Knowshon Moreno, the offense will struggle and their defense wasn’t good to begin with.

AFC North

Cincinnati (11-5)

The Bengals boast an attacking defense and a powerful running game. And with the addition of TO, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley, Carson Palmer has run out of excuses. It’s time for his resurgence like recent pictures of Britney Spears in a bikini and utilize his assets. Despite wearing down at the end of last season, I expect the Bengals to get it done.

Pittsburgh (11-5)

This may have been my biggest surprise. I have them starting 1-3 with Dennis Dixon as the starter but the schedule for the Steelers provides a softer landing for Big Ben than landing on the chest of Salma Hayek. With a recommitment to the run, the Steelers have the ability to slug it out with anyone.

Baltimore (10-6)

I was expecting to have the Ravens in the mix for a Super Bowl birth. Unfortunately, while they improved their offensive weapons with the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and TJ Houshmandzadeh, their defensive secondary is a mess with the injuries to Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworthy. That does not bode well to compete with the receiving threats in Cincy and games at Atlanta, at Houston and at New England.

AFC Playoff Teams: (1) Colts, (2) Patriots, (3) Chargers, (4) Bengals, (WC) Texans, (WC) Steelers

NFC Playoff Teams: (1) Packers, (2) Saints, (3) Cowboys, (4) 49ers, (WC) Falcons, (WC) Vikings

hAFC Championship: Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship: Packers over Saints

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION: Green Bay Packers over Colts

Maybe I’m just a homer, but I think all the parts are there for Aaron Rodgers to establish his own legacy in Green Bay. My head says the Colts are the pick to beat the Packers, but I can’t put the Packers that close and not have them pull it off.

QUICK HITS for DEGENERATE FRIDAY – Week 1

Thursday pick: Saints (-5) over Vikings

Falcons (-2) over STEELERS – the Matt Ryan rebound begins

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS – Spiller isn’t enough

Lions (+6.5) over BEARS – Misery begins in the Windy City

GIANTS (-6.5) over Panthers – G-men get revenge on Carolina for ruining the closing of old stadium.

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bengals – Brady celebrates new contract with big opener

Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS – who cares?

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Broncos – barely more interesting than the previous suck-fest

Colts (-2) over TEXANS – Texans not quite ready for prime time

Raiders (+6) over TITANS – Raiders may not win but that spread is too big for the resurgent Raiders

Packers (-3) over EAGLES – easiest game to pick this week

49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS – welcome to the big leagues Coach Carroll

Cardinals (-4) over RAMS – someone has to win this game

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS – McNabb gets a rude welcome in DC

JETS (-2.5) over Ravens – break in the new stadium in style

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers – San Diego never starts fast

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- I love the folly of people “grading” the team’s NFL draft within 24 hours of the draft ending. It is entertaining to see which teams were winners and losers in the mind of journalists, but the reality is that there is no telling who had a good draft for the next 3 years. There is no telling whether any of these guys are going to live up to expectations and where the sleepers will come from. You wouldn’t judge a movie based purely on reading the book it was based on, right? You need to see the movie and then make a decision. So, yes, as of right now it looked like the Raiders had a successful draft (especially if you include the trade for Jason Campbell to play QB), but then again, it looked like they had strong drafts when they took JaMarcus Russell or Darren McFadden right after they were drafted. Speaking of the book-movie reference, I read the book Up In The Air and saw the movie and there is almost no correlation between the two. I understand that there are always some differences when they make the movie, but it seemed that the only thing the movie and book had in common was a guy who was traveling constantly and going for 1 million frequent flyer miles. I actually liked the movie better than the book, and it wasn’t just because of Anna Kendrick or Vera Farmiga.

- How impressive has Jim Schwartz been in remaking the Lions, at least on paper? Their offense is ready to explode with Matthew Stafford maturing and already having one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson. They signed Nate Burleson to play opposite Megatron and traded for Tony Scheffler to be the tight end safety for their young quarterback. Then they added Jahvid Best for some explosiveness out of the backfield and if their line can give Stafford some time, they should be able to put up points. Then defensively they drafted Suh to go with recently signed veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch (who excelled under Schwartz with the Titans) to anchor the defensive line. They have the potential to be the third best team in the NFC North, behind only the Vikings and Packers, but well ahead of the Bears. Maybe it’s the new logo that’s changing everything?

- Can someone please get an ice pack for Dwyane Wade’s back and shoulders? He is single-handedly carrying the entire Heat franchise to keep them alive in the playoffs. His performance on Sunday was absolutely incredible in staving off elimination for at least another couple of days. At one point during the game they put up a stat that he had scored 1/3 of his teams total points in the series and was shooting almost 60 percent from the floor….as a guard!! I mentioned it before, but if you’re Wade, how in the world can you resign in Miami this summer? His teammates are worthless. I don’t want to see it, but Wade in Chicago would be a nice landing spot next to Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. If LeBron James is Superman (and he put on his own impressive showing Sunday with a ho-hum triple-double), then Wade must be Batman.

- Even though Colt McCoy slid even further in the draft than Jimmy Clausen, I think McCoy is in a better situation. McCoy has only a veteran turnover machine in front of him in Cleveland, and will get to be tutored by Mike Holmgren who has a tremendous record with quarterbacks. Clausen, on the other hand, goes to a Carolina team that will be starting a young guy in Matt Moore and will be coached by a lame duck coach, John Fox in the final year of his contract. While Clausen may be able to beat out Moore, his situation reminds me of the situation his former Notre Dame buddy Brady Quinn went through in Cleveland. Quinn came in only having to compete with Derek Anderson under a coach in Romeo Crennel that had already used up all the slack in his leash. So Crennel didn’t have the ability to be patient to allow Quinn to mature and when they brought in a new coaching staff, there was no reason to keep someone else’s pick.

HATE

- The Lakers effort against the Thunder this weekend was laughable. Kobe only took 12 shots in game 4, almost like he decided to take the night off knowing they only had to win their home games. Kevin Durant was the real deal, posting 21 points and 19 rebounds in game 3 and then another impressive outing to tie the series 2-2 on Saturday. Can the Thunder win the series? It’s still about as likely as Big Ben getting an endorsement deal from Disney. More importantly it has shown that the Lakers are extremely vulnerable to be beaten by an experienced team in the later rounds.

- Taylor Mays pretty much solidified why Pete Carroll didn’t draft him. I’ve never had a hard time taking shots at Carroll for being a jag off, but in this instance, I think he’s in the clear. Mays was drafted by the 49ers and claimed that Carroll lied to him about wanting to draft him and complaining that he was let down by his former coach. Listen, Taylor, maybe if you put as much effort into improving as you do to whining, you would have been drafted earlier. However every report out there said that Earl Thomas (and others) were better safeties than you because you don’t wrap up, you don’t have great closing speed and your footwork is lazy. Mays’ complaints carry about as much weight as if J-Woww would whine that she only gets attention for her chest. Well, duh.

- It was really hard to watch the ABC halftime reports with Rick Reilly watching the Nuggets game with George Karl as he goes through treatment for throat cancer. Karl looks like he has aged about 15 years since he was last on the sidelines and you can see the pain as he watches the game. Karl is a fighter and continues to do battle against the illness, and I have no doubt that he will persevere, but it was difficult to watch him struggle to take his shots, medication and then have to sit there helplessly watch his team play disjointed and fall to the edge of elimination by the Jazz. Keep fighting and get better George.

Breaking Down the Field (Part II)

UPDATE: Join the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge! It's free to join. Click here for details.

Let’s get right to the continuation of the top 25 breakdown. For the top 13 teams, please see yesterday’s post by clicking here. And good night UConn - can we please stop talking about them? They are not on the bubble, and cannot even see the bubble they are so far away after mailing it in last night against St. John's.

14. BYU Cougars
Why They Will: They can score points. They have scored over 100 three times and over 90 points on 6 other occasions. Yet the amazing part is that they only gave up over 80 three times, losing two of those 3 games. Guard Jimmer Fredette averages over 20 points a game and just dropped 49 on TCU last week. Much like an Australian model, they have talent, though it’s mostly unknown and you probably don’t want to cast her as the star of your blockbuster movie.

Why They Won’t: They are not battle tested, with no signature wins (Arizona & Arizona St do not qualify as quality victories. In addition, they were swept by New Mexico during the regular season.

Bottom Line: Their ability to score can make them a tough matchup in the first round, but they will struggle to get much further than that.

15. Tennessee Volunteers
Why They Will: They have already beaten both Kansas and Kentucky, the top two teams in the country during the season. They play pressure defense and have one of the more charismatic coaches in the country in Bruce Pearl. With Scotty Hopson playing like he is capable combining with Wayne Chism, this team has the skills to make a long run.

Why They Won’t: Since they jettisoned Tyler Smith from the team, the Vols have jelled, but they are not deep and have been extremely inconsistent. Are they too emotional? Like Katy Perry, they can wow you at times, but you know it’s going to be a rollercoaster ride.

Bottom Line: This is a team that will be very dependent upon their seeding. They have the talent to get to the elite eight, but they could also be ripe for a first round flop if they get a disciplined, methodic team from a mid-major conference.

16. Pittsburgh Panthers
Why They Will: Jamie Dixon teams are always tough defensively and bring full effort on every play. They are Christina Aguilera, a little rough around the edges, tough, and kind of a scary matchup.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have a consistent enough scoring threat, which can be a problem in the clutch. They are only 5-5 when they give up 70 points or more, and are 19-2 when they keep teams under 70, which will be tough if they get deep against some of the more prolific offensive teams.

Bottom Line: Their defense will propel them into the sweet 16, at which point they will likely run into a team that can play enough defense to stifle the Panther attack and send Pittsburgh home.

17. Temple Owls
Why They Will: The Owls have shown flashes of brilliance, beating Villanova, Penn State, Seton Hall and Virginia Tech. They tied for the conference title in the surprisingly tough Atlantic-10, which was a better conference than the Pac-10 this season.

Why They Won’t: They got annihilated by Kansas at home, and don’t have anyone averaging more than 14.5 points per game. Like Jenna Fischer, they are among the top choices in a small town/conference for the girl-next-door type. Unfortunately, the bright lights of the tournament want more flash.

Bottom Line: Their disciplined play will allow them to avoid an early upset, but they will be the #4 or #5 seed that the cinderella teams are hoping to catch in the second round. But look at the bright side, they still have Bill Cosby as their most recognizable fan.

18. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Why They Will: Like Butler, their status as an underdog expired a few years ago. They don’t sneak up on anyone, yet they continue to dominate their conference during the regular season.

Why They Won’t: Because they don’t sneak up on anyone anymore, they are consistently overseeded at this point, potentially protecting them in the opening round. Like Kathryn Heigl, they went from underrated to overrated and were exposed as lacking the talent to compete with the best competition.

Bottom Line: They are a prime candidate to get knocked off in the first round in a 12-5 or 11-6 upset.

19. Maryland Terrapins
Why They Will: Their best player, Greivis Vasquez, is not afraid of the big moment, and he actually thrives on them. They tied for the ACC regular season title, and have Shooter from Hoosiers stalking the sidelines – Gary Williams.

Why They Won’t: Vasquez has the ability to make or break a team, because when he’s hot he’s as good as anyone. Yet when he’s cold, he’s too arrogant to know that he should look to contribute in ways other than heaving another 3-pointer. Like Sienna Miller, they can draw you in with her flashes of talent, but you’re not sure if she’s stable enough that you want to hitch your wagon to them for the long-term.

Bottom Line: Because the ACC was unbelievably weak this year, the co-champs of the conference will likely end up as a #5 or #6 seed, which means they are in danger of a first-round flame out. Expect them to sneak through to the second round, where they will be dropped.

20. Vanderbilt Commodores
Why They Will: You cannot write off a team that won at Tennessee and swept Florida with an inside-outside attack from Jermaine Beal and AJ Ogilvy. They are like Rachel Bilson – well-rounded, and very likeable.

Why They Won’t: Consistency has not been their strength, evidenced by losses to Western Kentucky, Cincinnati and at Georgia. They have the talent to play with most teams, but they don’t seem to have the focus, which brings into question the ability of their coach to take them to the next level.

Bottom Line: They appear to be a prime candidate for a first round upset due to their inconsistency. They tend to play up or down to their competition which could lead them to losing to a Sienna or the other upset sweethearts.

21. Baylor Bears
Why They Will: They are very overlooked in the sneaky tough Big 12, where they swept Texas and Oklahoma and beat Arizona State on the road. Like Tina Fey, they are sneaky attractive, in that you don’t think about them in that way at first. But then after you look past the 2003 incident where a Bear player was convicted of killing a teammate, the school brought in Scott Drew (brother of NCAA Tournament legend Bryce Drew) who has turned the program around.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the required go-to guy that can generate his own offense when things break down. That’s the biggest weakness I can see on this sleepy team that no one is talking about.

Bottom Line: They are a great sleeper pick to get to the elite eight, as they have a team that plays well together and if they get hot, could knock off a top seed in the sweet 16.

22. Georgetown Hoyas
Why They Will: They have the Lt. Aldo Raines coach in John Thompson III, a leader that the players believe in and will do whatever he needs them to do. That measured approach to the game allows them to play well in big games because the team doesn’t get overly emotional. They also have the Jenni Farley, “J-Woww”, frontcourt with Greg Monroe and a guard in Austin Freeman that everyone is rooting for after learning he is dealing with diabetes.

Why They Won’t: They are not a great outside shooting team, and despite the strong play of Monroe & Freeman, they go into scoring droughts which can be the end of teams in the tournament.

Bottom Line: This is a team that lost to Syracuse, beat Duke, lost to South Florida and then beat Villanova all within 2 weeks. Yet, when they are hot, they are as good as anyone, and it would not surprise me to see them in the elite eight.

23. Texas A&M Aggies
Why They Will: Like Maggie Gylenhaal, some people are into this team, yet I don’t really understand how or why they are successful. The Aggies finished tied for second in the Big 12, and played Kansas close during their only meeting. They play tough defense and can grind it out in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: They don’t still have Acie Law, do they? Because he was pretty good and that was a Texas A&M team that had the skills to go deep in the tournament. They can’t win without Law.

Bottom Line: Another team ripe for a first round upset, and if they do manage to get by the opening round, they will be cannon fodder in the second round.

24. Xavier Muskateers
Why They Will: Like Anne Hathaway, they are disciplined, a little uptight and talented. They are still a mid-major from the Atlantic-10, yet they are viewed as closer to one of the big boys. Guard Jordan Crawford leads a strong offensive attack and has the ability to take over games when needed.

Why They Won’t: They played a fairly tough schedule, but did not come away with a signature non-conference win, losing to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State and Wake Forest, and beating LSU & Cincy.

Bottom Line: if they can snag a #6 seed, they will be a dangerous matchup for the #3 seed in the second round. Look for them to win one and then be eliminated.

25. UTEP Miners
Why They Will: This is the school that hasn’t been relevant since they produced a third of the best backcourt in the NBA – “Run TMC” in Golden State. Tim Hardaway is a UTEP alum and made famous his cross-over which he called the UTEP-Two-Step. In his honor, they get the Kim Kardashian backcourt award. Does this UTEP team actually have a strong backcourt? I have no idea.

Why They Won’t: Quick – name the conference UTEP plays in! You can’t. Most people can’t. It’s Conference USA, which has been dominated by Memphis for years. They have a high-scoring guard in Randy Culpepper, but they have not beaten anyone of note outside their conference.

Bottom Line: They are the classic team for the 8-9 seed matchup in the first round, meaning it will be a tough call in the first round, and then they will get blown out by a top seed.

So there it is – The Sports Addict breaks down the top 25 like no one else. We will continue to focus on the tournament as we are only 8 days away from Degenerate Christmas when the tournament tips off. It’s the most wonderful time…..of the year…….

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Quick Hits

Quick Hits on some of the stories in sports…..and a reminder to come back tomorrow for a full breakdown of the Super Bowl matchup and it will be Degenerate Friday with my pick for the Super Bowl.

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The NCAA is meeting and considering expanding the NCAA tournament to 96 teams. Worst idea since overpaying the cast of Jersey Shore for a second season. Listen, we all enjoyed watching these people sink to new levels of self respect and live up to every stereotype of the Jersey Shore. But what are they going to do in the second season? Get drunk, get in fights, and hook up with some of the ugliest people to ever grace our television. That’s already been done during the first season, so my guess is it will get old quickly. And are we really connected to the cast of the first season? The Situation brought us a great nickname, Ronnie is a monster you don’t pick a fight with, and J-Woww encourages wearing as little clothes as possible and those little clothes better have holes or be ripped. Yet there are a ton of people on the Jersey Shore just like them. Wait, where was I? Oh yeah, college basketball……..

Expanding the tourney is an example of the people believing that because A was successful, let’s just do more of A. It doesn’t work that way. If the tournament is expanded, it will be completely watered-down and the opening round games will not have the compelling storylines and upsets that make the tournament what it is. It is among the most loved sporting events in the country – even your girlfriend who doesn’t follow sports fills out a bracket and watches the games. Do we really need the 9th or 10th place team in the Big East in the tournament? Or the 3rd place team in the MEAC? That additional round of games will be as successful as when they expanded the tournament to 65 from 64 a few years ago. NO ONE watches or cares about the “opening round” or “play-in” game. Expanding the tournament to 96 teams would create an entire round of play-in games that no one will watch.

And I’m not even going to get into the whole gambling aspect of expanding the tournament. The opening Thursday and Friday of the tournament in its current format are the greatest two gambling days in the world. Let’s not mess with it.

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Yesterday was national signing day for college football players. Did you miss it? If I’m a Florida fan, I’m supposed to be excited for what yesterday means 3 years from now? That is assuming that Urban Meyer doesn’t keel over from not taking care of his health, less than half the players avoid getting arrested, another third don’t get injured, and finally that they actually live up to their hype. That’s quite of bit of uncertainty to worry about.

On top of that, the whole ranking of recruits and recruiting classes are self-fulfilling circles. A player is highly rated because he is being recruited by top schools like Florida, Alabama or Notre Dame. Then those schools get highly rated recruiting classes because they get the highly rated players (who were highly rated because of where they were recruited).

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Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant both reached impressive milestones this week. Kobe became the third-leading scorer all-time for the Lakers franchise and Phil now has the most wins as coach in franchise history. Both feats are impressive given that the Lakers franchise is the most storied and dominating franchise in basketball.

Kobe is the best player since Michael Jordan, and although he may never become the Lakers all-time leading scorer – Kareem played 400 years – he may be their best player. He is more clutch than anyone since Jordan and he has been intelligent enough to evolve his game from high-flying rim-crashing to a deadly accurate jump shooter. He has 4 titles, including last year on a team very much like those Jordan won with – surrounded by solid but not spectacular players. Speaking of Jordan’s teammates – this shirt is amazing (via The Big Lead).

Phil has had the benefit of coaching both Jordan and Kobe which obviously helps drive him to be the winningest coach for both the Bulls & the Lakers. Yet Phil has also been able to manage a diverse group of players, including Dennis Rodman, Ron Artest and Shaq. Yes, he has the players, but he has made sure the talent works together to be successful.

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Miller Lite is holding an auction where you can bid on Barry Sanders coming to your house for a Super Bowl Party on Sunday. Seems kind of strange. Yet that just made me look up some highlights from his career. This will be the most entertaining 4 minutes of your day today, guaranteed. I started noting my favorite runs as I was watching it, and stopped after the 5th time I scratched out my writing because I thought “wow, that one was his best run” only to have it topped by the next one.