I'm Back! NFL 2010 Preview MegaPost

Well, I guess I’m like Brett Favre and herpes….you just can’t get rid of me. It’s been ages, but with football season about to kick off it’s time to get back at it and posting regularly. This whole blog started last year with a season preview, so it’s only fitting to get back to work with a season preview/prediction column and wrap in a Degenerate Friday Week 1 picks. And while it is easy on the eyes to watch Caroline Wozniacki play in the U.S. Open, it’s football that really gets us fired up. On a side note – I’m hoping Wozniacki makes the finals because I’ll be there Saturday night. Let’s get right to it…..no gimmicks, no categories, just a full break down of how I see the NFL season playing out.

I break down the season slightly different than most people – most analysts go through and pick their Super Bowl teams and then back their way into records for every team. I go through the entire league schedule and pick every game, then totaling up what records the teams will end up having. The good part is that it doesn’t fall prey to preconceived notions and it definitely allows a tough schedule to have an effect on a team’s final record. The down side is that I end up with some surprises that I may not have made otherwise, as you’ll see with this year’s AFC playoff teams. And I still ended up with 2 new playoff teams in each conference, which is close to the typical 5 teams that surprise people.

Breaking it down by division then a playoff prediction, starting in the NFC

NFC East

Dallas (10-6)

The Cowboys have talked themselves into believing they are a Super Bowl favorite despite bringin

g back most of the team that got drubbed by the Vikings in last year’s playoffs. I expect Marion Barber to have a big season – did you know the guy played last year with a hole in his quad muscle? Think about that – a freaking HOLE in his quad!! Now that he’s healthy, he’s a battering ram that will open up the field for Miles Austin to go deep and Dez Bryant to be a monster. Their offense will be as good as any in the league and their attacking defense will be enough to carry them to the division crown.

NY Giants (9-7)

I don’t actually think the Giants are that good. Yet their schedule falls pretty nicely for them and I think they have enough pieces to be in the mix. Nobody likes Eli Manning, but the guy threw for over 4,000 yards last year and obviously has the support of his team. The NFC East is a lot like the Kardashians in that everyone thinks they’re famous and are a big deal, but stop and think about it for a minute. Kim has some incredible assets (like the Cowboys) and the rest of the family is only famous by association. By association, I guess that makes the Giants equal to Courtney, the next best in the family. And now it’s time to get to the ugly family members…..

Philadelphia (7-9)

So the equation that irrational Eagles fans are selling is Andy Reid equals a winning record. Well when you subtract McNabb and Westbrook and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, and add in a first year starter in Kevin Kolb, it changes things considerably. Kolb may turn out to be a very good quarterback, but even Aaron Rodgers struggled in his first year as a starter. I personally think Kolb does not have the dynamic fire needed to be a premiere quarterback in the league, but he does have enough physical skills to ensure the Eagles stay close.

Washington (6-10)

I saw that the Sports Guy picked the Skins as his sleeper team and has them in the playoffs. I’d like to see that just to stick it to the Eagles and their ridiculous fans. McNabb still has gas in the tank and will definitely be motivated, but he has no one to throw the ball to and the Skins are dealing with the pain in the ass that is Albert Haynesworth. New Sheriff Shanahan will eventually lead them to success, but it won’t be this year.

NFC South

New Orleans (11-5)

The Saints offense is still as dangerous as Dan Hampton on an open microphone. (The former Bear Hampton is the one that said the Vikings should hit New Orleans “like Katrina” and that the Cowboys were “brokeback cowboys” in one show – that’s a helluva performance right up there with Mel Gibson) They have a premiere quarterback, premiere coach, attacking defense and adaptable receiving and running threats. That’s enough to be there deep in the playoffs.

Atlanta (11-5)

I thought the Falcons would break out last year and they got bit by the injury bug slowing their quarterback, running back and slot receiver. This year with a healthy Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Harry Douglas, the Falcons look poised to challenge for the division title. The Falcons could be that team to makes the leap to elite and makes a deep run in the playoffs.

Carolina (8-8)

Their biggest improvement was the removal of the Human Turnover Machine, Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. However, Matt Moore will struggle now that teams can scheme to stop him. They also lost Julius Peppers and Steve Smith hasn’t played since breaking his arm. Oh, and don’t forget they have a lame duck coach that will be moving on after the season and despite the running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, this smells like a .500 team.

Tampa Bay (2-14)

The Bucs have some nice pieces in place for future success, but the immediate future looks painful.

NFC West

San Francisco (9-7)

They are the tallest midget. The NFC West is hideous, and the Niners could run away with the division by barely being over .500. They have the defense that is the fiery design of Mike Singletary and offensive weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabree. If Alex Smith can effectively use his VD and Crabs, it will open things up for Gore and a successful season.

Arizona (8-8)

This text from my brother in Phoenix pretty much summed it up in the desert: “So do I really have to get behind Derek Anderson this season? But I guess it’s better than Leinart.” Anderson has a strong arm which could be beneficial to Larry Fitzgerald, but he has problems telling the difference between his receivers and defensive backs. Having 4 cupcake games against Seattle and St. Louis allows them to stay in the hunt, but Cardinal fans should start preparing for the Max Hall era which may start after a 1-4 start and a bye week.

Seattle (4-12)

Pete Carroll was able to get out of Southern Cal before the shit hit the fan, but he managed to jump right int

o another steaming pile when he went north up the coast. He has almost completely turned over the roster which would be a good thing since the Seahawks were bad, but then when you factor in Carroll’s lack of success in past NFL stints and the overall lack of success of college coaches in the pros, it is a pretty scary proposition.

St. Louis (2-14)

Well, it does appear that Sam Bradford has many of the intangibles and that can help someday return the Rams to respectability. Unfortunately that someday is not this year. Strap on that helmet tight, Sam and live to fight another season.

NFC North

Green Bay (11-5)

The Packers have the favorite for league MVP at quarterback have a healthier offensive line to give him more

time to use his considerable arsenal of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones. The secondary will be tested early without Al Harris and Atari Bigby but they get a scheduling break playing poor or less established passing games early in the year – Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Miami. That could allow the Packers to get off to a very fast start and could carry them to the division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota (9-7)

The Vikings are dealing with plenty of questions after a very successful previous season. Can

Favre hold up? Who is going to be their receiving threat? Is their defense too old? Will the rest of the team resent the special treatment that Diva Favre has gotten? Does anyone like Coach Childress?

Hard to imagine a team going to the Super Bowl when the quarterback hates the coach and the rest of the team doesn’t like either one of them.

Detroit (5-11)

Like Blake Lively, the Lions are bursting with young assets. With the addition of Suh and VandeBosch on the defensive line, the Lions could slow a few offenses, which will give Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best the opportunity to outscore some teams. While 5-11 doesn’t seem like a big jump, when you’re in Detroit, it’s reason to celebrate.

Chicago (5-11)

Coach on the hot seat? Check. Overrated quarterback with an attitude problem? Check. Arrogant offensive coordinator with only one success in his career? Check. Overpaid for a notoriously lazy defensive lineman? Check. Get the fan base excited about signing a third down back? Check. Sounds like another crappy season in Chicago.

AFC East

New England (11-5)

The Patriots are back to where they prefer, under the radar. And Randy Moss is in a contract year, which means he has the potential for a monster year. After last season’s schedule, this year’s slate looks easier than J-Woww after a couple shots of tequila. As long as Brady can keep his Bieber hair out of his eyes, he’ll have a solid arsenal of receiving weapons. Can the Patriots stop anyone? Maybe not, but they will have the offensive firepower to outscore most teams.

NY Jets (10-6)

The Jets remind me of the Seinfeld episode about “The Race” when George pretends he hasn’t seen Jerry since high school and goes on a rant about the millions he made as an architect. Jerry’s response: “You really built yourself up into something, didn’t you?” And that is extremely applicable to the Jets. They were 9-7 last

year. They brought in a bunch of big name veterans past their prime. They got a break to even get into the playoffs. Is that enough to make them Super Bowl favorites? I don’t think so.

Miami (8-8)

The Dolphins have addressed their biggest need, which was a playmaking wide receiver who could actually, you know, catch. They got Brandon Marshall who when paired with Chad Henne give the Dolphins a very potent offense. Unfortunately they face a deadly stretch of games at GB, Pit, at Cin, at Bal, and Ten. If they go 2-3 during that stretch it would be a heck of a

n accomplishment.

Buffalo (5-11)

The Bills managed to find themselves a dynamic game changer in CJ Spiller, but unfortunately they still have Trent Edwards at QB, a leaky offensive line and a defensive line that can’t slow anyone. Could Spiller be a poor man’s Barry Sanders?

AFC South

Indianapolis (13-3)

Every year you start with Indy at 12 wins and then adjust it up or down a game or two. I ex

pect Peyton to bounce back from his Super Bowl pick-6 and be in F-U mode most of the season. Add to that the embarrassment of weapons he has at his disposal and the Colts will blast through the regular season like Justi

n Timberlake blew through the hottest women in Hollywood before settling on Jessica Biel.

Houston (11-5)

Every year people expect the Texans to break through. Every year they let

everyone down. It’s kind of like sending Lindsay Lohan to rehab – when are we finally going to give up on her putting it all together? Well, I’m giving the Texans one last chance because if they just do the simple things, they have the talent to be successful. They have a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a strong defense to go with a QB who is solid in the regular season. That should be enough with their schedule.

Tennessee (7-9)

I have no clue what to expect from this team. Two years ago they went 13-3. Last year they started 0-8 and got blasted 59-0 by the Patriots. Yet they have one of the fastest RBs in the league in Chris Johnson who expects to get 2,500 yards this season. Vince Young and his “Uncle Rico” motion isn’t pretty, but he has been able t

o lead the team to wins. Yet I don’t see this team keeping up with the elite in their division.

Jacksonville (4-12)

Can’t we just move this team to LA and get it over with? No one in Jacksonville would even notice if they were

gone. They might be the most non-descript team in the league with their only star a running back with a knee extremely close to needing a scope that will knock him out for 2-3 weeks at a minimum.

AFC West

San Diego (11-5)

I expected to have this team fall off considerably this year with a rookie bell cow running back and the loss of Vincent Jackson to a hold out. Yet their schedule is so soft, even Norv Turner can lead this team to double-digit wins.

Oakland (9-7)

The Raiders are a lot better than people think. Despite the crazy Al Davis, they have quietly put together a great offseason with the drafting of a game changing linebacker and the trade for a serviceable quarterback in Jas

on Campbell. Campbell relied heavily on his TE, Chris Cooley in Washington, which bodes well for the stats of Zach Miller this season. Look for the Raiders to surprise some people this year and be in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of the year.

Kansas City (8-8)

Thomas Jones will be key to keeping Jamaal Charles fresh, yet the Chiefs still have too many holes defensively to get over the .500 hump.

Denver (6-10)

It now seems pretty obvious that the 6-0 start last year was the aberration. Josh McDaniels put himself in the cross-hairs with his love affair with Tim Tebow, but that is dangerous considering Timmy T is not ready to be the starter. Without Brandon Marshall and with a banged up Knowshon Moreno, the offense will struggle and their defense wasn’t good to begin with.

AFC North

Cincinnati (11-5)

The Bengals boast an attacking defense and a powerful running game. And with the addition of TO, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley, Carson Palmer has run out of excuses. It’s time for his resurgence like recent pictures of Britney Spears in a bikini and utilize his assets. Despite wearing down at the end of last season, I expect the Bengals to get it done.

Pittsburgh (11-5)

This may have been my biggest surprise. I have them starting 1-3 with Dennis Dixon as the starter but the schedule for the Steelers provides a softer landing for Big Ben than landing on the chest of Salma Hayek. With a recommitment to the run, the Steelers have the ability to slug it out with anyone.

Baltimore (10-6)

I was expecting to have the Ravens in the mix for a Super Bowl birth. Unfortunately, while they improved their offensive weapons with the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and TJ Houshmandzadeh, their defensive secondary is a mess with the injuries to Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworthy. That does not bode well to compete with the receiving threats in Cincy and games at Atlanta, at Houston and at New England.

AFC Playoff Teams: (1) Colts, (2) Patriots, (3) Chargers, (4) Bengals, (WC) Texans, (WC) Steelers

NFC Playoff Teams: (1) Packers, (2) Saints, (3) Cowboys, (4) 49ers, (WC) Falcons, (WC) Vikings

hAFC Championship: Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship: Packers over Saints

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION: Green Bay Packers over Colts

Maybe I’m just a homer, but I think all the parts are there for Aaron Rodgers to establish his own legacy in Green Bay. My head says the Colts are the pick to beat the Packers, but I can’t put the Packers that close and not have them pull it off.

QUICK HITS for DEGENERATE FRIDAY – Week 1

Thursday pick: Saints (-5) over Vikings

Falcons (-2) over STEELERS – the Matt Ryan rebound begins

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS – Spiller isn’t enough

Lions (+6.5) over BEARS – Misery begins in the Windy City

GIANTS (-6.5) over Panthers – G-men get revenge on Carolina for ruining the closing of old stadium.

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bengals – Brady celebrates new contract with big opener

Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS – who cares?

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Broncos – barely more interesting than the previous suck-fest

Colts (-2) over TEXANS – Texans not quite ready for prime time

Raiders (+6) over TITANS – Raiders may not win but that spread is too big for the resurgent Raiders

Packers (-3) over EAGLES – easiest game to pick this week

49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS – welcome to the big leagues Coach Carroll

Cardinals (-4) over RAMS – someone has to win this game

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS – McNabb gets a rude welcome in DC

JETS (-2.5) over Ravens – break in the new stadium in style

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers – San Diego never starts fast

Degenerate Friday - On Thursday! NBA Playoffs - West

The NBA playoffs begin this weekend, so let’s break down the each conference, starting in the West because my brain is still in California. The biggest difference between being in California and New York – aside from the weather? The driving. Out west for an entire week, and I never heard a single car horn honk. They don’t use them at all. In New York? The horn is a way for cabs to let the pedestrians know he is about to mow them down. It is a way to let people know they can’t just stop in the middle of the road. And it is a way to let cars know they haven’t jumped on their gas pedal 0.2 seconds after the light turned green. The other difference while driving is that in California, the people wave with all of their fingers when they’re allowing you to merge in front of their Toyota Prius, Lexus Hybrid, or 1987 Mercedes (no snow means no salt which means no rust on the cars so there are an inordinate number of 20+ year old cars that are not collectors cars yet still in great condition). And instead of the “Jersey Special” cars – white cars with ultra black tinted windows, there were the “Low-Rider Special” cars – pick-up trucks dropped down low over 24 inch chrome rims with Spanish writing across the top of the windshield.

Anyway, let’s get to the Western Conference…….(odds from lasvegassportsbetting.com)

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder

Lakers odds: 2/3 to win the West, 5/2 to win the NBA Championship
Thunder odds: 20/1 to win the West, 40/1 to win the NBA Championship

This series has all the makings of Michael Jordan and the Bulls going up against the Celtics in 1986. That was the series where Jordan put up 63 in the double overtime game and produced that memorable clip where he crossed over between his legs multiple times before hitting the fade away jumper on Larry Bird. Kevin Durant will be playing the role of Jordan, and the defending champion Lakers will be playing the role of the 1985 (and eventual 1986) champion Celtics. The Thunder have an incredible young nucleus but their lack of playoff experience will be exploited by Phil Jackson and his veteran team. Like a match up of Miley Cyrus against Jennifer Aniston – you appreciate the young and vigor of Cyrus and know that she will likely have her day as a champion eventually, but not right now. Right now, it’s still a league that is dominated by a veteran like Aniston even if she has picked up a few scars along the way. The Lakers have showed some signs of tiring as the season wound down, but they may have just began to coast sooner than the rest of the league. They still have the inside game of Pau Gasol and they have the most clutch player in the entire league in Kobe Bryant.

Unfortunately for gambling purposes, the Lakers are not a great value bet either to win the conference or to win the title. However, as much as I want to find a team that can beat the Lakers, I really can’t see it happening until the Finals. I guess sometimes it’s better to get the bet correct than it is to get the best value (see, I’ve learned from the NCAA tournament)

First Round Pick: Lakers in 5 games

#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs

Mavericks odds: 6/1 to win the West, 12/1 to win the NBA Title
Spurs odds: 9/1 to win the West, 20/1 to win the NBA Title

The Mavs reloaded with the trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which has revitalized the team and given them a great shot. The best comparison I can think of for the Mavs is Kim Kardashian – she had an attractive face and a great body, so she just added a little talent to the front court and she’s ready to compete with anyone. The Mavs added a little to their front court with Haywood and Butler and they present the biggest challenge to the Lakers in the West. They also still have one of the best scorers in the league in Dirk Nowitzki who will pose match-up problems for the Spurs. The Mavs have the diverse scoring options which should be enough to exploit the strong defense fo the Spurs, carrying them into the second round.

The Spurs still have the experience and heart of a champion, but they are on their last legs. The addition of younger players like Richard Jefferson and rookie DeJuan Blair was basically like Harrison Ford getting his ear pierced. He thinks it makes him look younger and more hip, but in reality, it just shows even more that he is old and past his prime. Like the Spurs, he was great in his day – among the best ever – but that day has passed. The Spurs can still play defense, as evidenced by them allowing the second-fewest points per game in the Western conference and holding teams to the lowest field goal percentage in the West. That will allow them to keep the series close, but they are an aging fighter with a few good punches left in their arsenal. Maybe a better comparison for the Spurs would be Sylvester Stallone rather than Harrison Ford.

For gambling purposes, the Mavs are a pretty good buy to win the West, as they have the talent and momentum to do battle with the Lakers. They have experience and talent at the key positions to match up with the defending champs. However, just like in 2006 when the refs gave Dwayne Wade the benefit of every single call the entire series, they don’t have the biggest superstars who will get the calls down the stretch. Dirk is a star, but will not get the benefits that Kobe, Carmelo, Wade or LeBron will.

First Round Prediction: Mavericks in 6 games

#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers

Suns odds: 15/1 to win the West, 25/1 to win the NBA title
Trailblazers odds: 25/1 to win the West, 45/1 to win the NBA title

The Suns Jared Dudley has always been an idiot, dating back to his days as a spaz at Boston College. Well, some things never change. He commented this week that he wanted to play the Blazers because of the Brandon Roy injury. Why would he want to give the Blazers locker room material? Because he’s an idiot. Thankfully for the Suns, they still have Steve Nash playing as well as he has in his entire career and Amare Stoudemire has decided to put his contract worries aside and get back to playing basketball. The Suns are like Heidi Montag – their plastic surgery was removing Terry Porter as coach – so they fit the profile of a strong contender, but like Heidi’s flaw of her messed up self image, the Suns have a fatal flaw which is a lack of defense. The NBA playoffs slow the game down and teams have to grind it out by playing defense and half court offense. That’s where the Suns fail.

The Blazers with a healthy Brandon Roy would have been very well positioned to win this series. However, without Roy – even if he plays, he is not going to have the same explosiveness – the Blazers will not be able to keep up. The Blazers are also defensively challenged despite the fact that they allowed the fewest points per game in the western conference. They allowed the highest opponent field goal percentage of any playoff team in the West, meaning they slow the game down (they score the second fewest points in the west), but give up too many easy or open looks. That will be a problem against the Suns, especially since they won’t have a full version of their best scoring option. Like Kate Hudson, who supposedly had a boob job recently, you wanted to root for her but the surgery makes you rethink whether she has some major issues.

There’s nothing to see here from a gambling perspective. Neither of these teams will be able to advance past the Conference Finals at best.

First Round Prediction: Suns in 6 games

#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz

Nuggets odds: 6/1 to win the West, 12/1 to win the NBA title
Jazz odds: 8/1 to win the West, 20/1 to win the NBA title

The Nuggets have the superstar in Carmelo Anthony that is needed to succeed in the NBA playoffs. They have the motivation of playing for their cancer-stricken coach, George Karl. They have talent across the board. Yet there is just something generally unlikeable about this team. Is it because of Kenyon Martin? Is it that although the Birdman, Chris Anderson, has a game you can like, he looks like a complete idiot? Or is it Carmelo Anthony himself? As good as Anthony is, he comes across as a pouting, immature player who can’t quite raise his game when the team needs him the most. They resemble Ashley Dupre, the infamous hooker that was caught up in the Eliot Spitzer scandal. As much as she tries to rehab her image with help from the NY Post, she’s still a former (maybe still current?) call girl who just recently posed in Playboy. Just like as much as Carmelo rehabs his image, he’s still the same guy who got busted with weed and made the video telling kids not to be a snitch.

The Jazz and Jerry Sloan continue to cruise along as one of the better teams in the league that no one really talks about. Is there a better coach out there than Jerry Sloan? He has made the transition from Karl Malone and John Stockton to a team led by Derron Williams and has remained among the better teams in the competitive Western Conference. Like Ed Norton, you never think of him first among the best actors out there, but look at his filmography and you can’t help but be impressed. The Jazz play fundamentally sound basketball which is why this first round match-up is among the most difficult to predict. They have the talent and discipline combined with Sloan’s coaching to make a really deep run in the West, but will that be enough to overcome the talent of the Nuggets?

I’m going to take another lesson from my NCAA spanking, and not go against a team just because I don’t like them. I’m going to put money on the Nuggets using the motivation of their ailing coach to come together with their talent across the board. I think they are the gambling pick to win the Western Conference.

First Round Prediction: Nuggets in 7 games

Breaking Down the Field (Part II)

UPDATE: Join the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge! It's free to join. Click here for details.

Let’s get right to the continuation of the top 25 breakdown. For the top 13 teams, please see yesterday’s post by clicking here. And good night UConn - can we please stop talking about them? They are not on the bubble, and cannot even see the bubble they are so far away after mailing it in last night against St. John's.

14. BYU Cougars
Why They Will: They can score points. They have scored over 100 three times and over 90 points on 6 other occasions. Yet the amazing part is that they only gave up over 80 three times, losing two of those 3 games. Guard Jimmer Fredette averages over 20 points a game and just dropped 49 on TCU last week. Much like an Australian model, they have talent, though it’s mostly unknown and you probably don’t want to cast her as the star of your blockbuster movie.

Why They Won’t: They are not battle tested, with no signature wins (Arizona & Arizona St do not qualify as quality victories. In addition, they were swept by New Mexico during the regular season.

Bottom Line: Their ability to score can make them a tough matchup in the first round, but they will struggle to get much further than that.

15. Tennessee Volunteers
Why They Will: They have already beaten both Kansas and Kentucky, the top two teams in the country during the season. They play pressure defense and have one of the more charismatic coaches in the country in Bruce Pearl. With Scotty Hopson playing like he is capable combining with Wayne Chism, this team has the skills to make a long run.

Why They Won’t: Since they jettisoned Tyler Smith from the team, the Vols have jelled, but they are not deep and have been extremely inconsistent. Are they too emotional? Like Katy Perry, they can wow you at times, but you know it’s going to be a rollercoaster ride.

Bottom Line: This is a team that will be very dependent upon their seeding. They have the talent to get to the elite eight, but they could also be ripe for a first round flop if they get a disciplined, methodic team from a mid-major conference.

16. Pittsburgh Panthers
Why They Will: Jamie Dixon teams are always tough defensively and bring full effort on every play. They are Christina Aguilera, a little rough around the edges, tough, and kind of a scary matchup.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have a consistent enough scoring threat, which can be a problem in the clutch. They are only 5-5 when they give up 70 points or more, and are 19-2 when they keep teams under 70, which will be tough if they get deep against some of the more prolific offensive teams.

Bottom Line: Their defense will propel them into the sweet 16, at which point they will likely run into a team that can play enough defense to stifle the Panther attack and send Pittsburgh home.

17. Temple Owls
Why They Will: The Owls have shown flashes of brilliance, beating Villanova, Penn State, Seton Hall and Virginia Tech. They tied for the conference title in the surprisingly tough Atlantic-10, which was a better conference than the Pac-10 this season.

Why They Won’t: They got annihilated by Kansas at home, and don’t have anyone averaging more than 14.5 points per game. Like Jenna Fischer, they are among the top choices in a small town/conference for the girl-next-door type. Unfortunately, the bright lights of the tournament want more flash.

Bottom Line: Their disciplined play will allow them to avoid an early upset, but they will be the #4 or #5 seed that the cinderella teams are hoping to catch in the second round. But look at the bright side, they still have Bill Cosby as their most recognizable fan.

18. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Why They Will: Like Butler, their status as an underdog expired a few years ago. They don’t sneak up on anyone, yet they continue to dominate their conference during the regular season.

Why They Won’t: Because they don’t sneak up on anyone anymore, they are consistently overseeded at this point, potentially protecting them in the opening round. Like Kathryn Heigl, they went from underrated to overrated and were exposed as lacking the talent to compete with the best competition.

Bottom Line: They are a prime candidate to get knocked off in the first round in a 12-5 or 11-6 upset.

19. Maryland Terrapins
Why They Will: Their best player, Greivis Vasquez, is not afraid of the big moment, and he actually thrives on them. They tied for the ACC regular season title, and have Shooter from Hoosiers stalking the sidelines – Gary Williams.

Why They Won’t: Vasquez has the ability to make or break a team, because when he’s hot he’s as good as anyone. Yet when he’s cold, he’s too arrogant to know that he should look to contribute in ways other than heaving another 3-pointer. Like Sienna Miller, they can draw you in with her flashes of talent, but you’re not sure if she’s stable enough that you want to hitch your wagon to them for the long-term.

Bottom Line: Because the ACC was unbelievably weak this year, the co-champs of the conference will likely end up as a #5 or #6 seed, which means they are in danger of a first-round flame out. Expect them to sneak through to the second round, where they will be dropped.

20. Vanderbilt Commodores
Why They Will: You cannot write off a team that won at Tennessee and swept Florida with an inside-outside attack from Jermaine Beal and AJ Ogilvy. They are like Rachel Bilson – well-rounded, and very likeable.

Why They Won’t: Consistency has not been their strength, evidenced by losses to Western Kentucky, Cincinnati and at Georgia. They have the talent to play with most teams, but they don’t seem to have the focus, which brings into question the ability of their coach to take them to the next level.

Bottom Line: They appear to be a prime candidate for a first round upset due to their inconsistency. They tend to play up or down to their competition which could lead them to losing to a Sienna or the other upset sweethearts.

21. Baylor Bears
Why They Will: They are very overlooked in the sneaky tough Big 12, where they swept Texas and Oklahoma and beat Arizona State on the road. Like Tina Fey, they are sneaky attractive, in that you don’t think about them in that way at first. But then after you look past the 2003 incident where a Bear player was convicted of killing a teammate, the school brought in Scott Drew (brother of NCAA Tournament legend Bryce Drew) who has turned the program around.

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the required go-to guy that can generate his own offense when things break down. That’s the biggest weakness I can see on this sleepy team that no one is talking about.

Bottom Line: They are a great sleeper pick to get to the elite eight, as they have a team that plays well together and if they get hot, could knock off a top seed in the sweet 16.

22. Georgetown Hoyas
Why They Will: They have the Lt. Aldo Raines coach in John Thompson III, a leader that the players believe in and will do whatever he needs them to do. That measured approach to the game allows them to play well in big games because the team doesn’t get overly emotional. They also have the Jenni Farley, “J-Woww”, frontcourt with Greg Monroe and a guard in Austin Freeman that everyone is rooting for after learning he is dealing with diabetes.

Why They Won’t: They are not a great outside shooting team, and despite the strong play of Monroe & Freeman, they go into scoring droughts which can be the end of teams in the tournament.

Bottom Line: This is a team that lost to Syracuse, beat Duke, lost to South Florida and then beat Villanova all within 2 weeks. Yet, when they are hot, they are as good as anyone, and it would not surprise me to see them in the elite eight.

23. Texas A&M Aggies
Why They Will: Like Maggie Gylenhaal, some people are into this team, yet I don’t really understand how or why they are successful. The Aggies finished tied for second in the Big 12, and played Kansas close during their only meeting. They play tough defense and can grind it out in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: They don’t still have Acie Law, do they? Because he was pretty good and that was a Texas A&M team that had the skills to go deep in the tournament. They can’t win without Law.

Bottom Line: Another team ripe for a first round upset, and if they do manage to get by the opening round, they will be cannon fodder in the second round.

24. Xavier Muskateers
Why They Will: Like Anne Hathaway, they are disciplined, a little uptight and talented. They are still a mid-major from the Atlantic-10, yet they are viewed as closer to one of the big boys. Guard Jordan Crawford leads a strong offensive attack and has the ability to take over games when needed.

Why They Won’t: They played a fairly tough schedule, but did not come away with a signature non-conference win, losing to Marquette, Baylor, Kansas State and Wake Forest, and beating LSU & Cincy.

Bottom Line: if they can snag a #6 seed, they will be a dangerous matchup for the #3 seed in the second round. Look for them to win one and then be eliminated.

25. UTEP Miners
Why They Will: This is the school that hasn’t been relevant since they produced a third of the best backcourt in the NBA – “Run TMC” in Golden State. Tim Hardaway is a UTEP alum and made famous his cross-over which he called the UTEP-Two-Step. In his honor, they get the Kim Kardashian backcourt award. Does this UTEP team actually have a strong backcourt? I have no idea.

Why They Won’t: Quick – name the conference UTEP plays in! You can’t. Most people can’t. It’s Conference USA, which has been dominated by Memphis for years. They have a high-scoring guard in Randy Culpepper, but they have not beaten anyone of note outside their conference.

Bottom Line: They are the classic team for the 8-9 seed matchup in the first round, meaning it will be a tough call in the first round, and then they will get blown out by a top seed.

So there it is – The Sports Addict breaks down the top 25 like no one else. We will continue to focus on the tournament as we are only 8 days away from Degenerate Christmas when the tournament tips off. It’s the most wonderful time…..of the year…….

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Squirrel is Live From Miami & Overhyped Super Bowl Stories

Before we get to this week's rankings, I have to mention the impressive showing by the Wisconsin Badgers in dismantling Michigan State last night. The Badgers were hot from the field and shredded the Spartan defense all night. There's nothing more satisfying than watching Tom Izzo cry on the sidelines when his team is getting is arse handed to them in every aspect of the game. Izzo is a great coach (5 Final Fours in 11 years speaks for itself), but I have never seen someone cry or whine so much. He doesn't get angry or yell at officials, he just pouts and whines to them. It's really pathetic to watch. Tommy, face it, Bo owns you at the Kohl Center. It's just reality.

It’s ranking time and with the Super Bowl just a few short days away, let’s rank the stories that have been and will continue to be beaten into the ground before kickoff. Starting with the least annoying and ending with the stories that have already been killed and should be let go.

But first, we received word from none other than the Squirrel, who is on location in Miami with a first hand report. Squirrel has officially become the roving reporter for the site after his report from Alabama during the national championship game, and here are a couple of highlights from Miami. It sounds like he’s enjoying himself already.

Let your readers know that Miami is beautiful and that if they are considering making the trip for the Superbowl, it is highly recommended. We got here on media day, which was notoriously rained out.. but things have improved tremendously. Today, my wife and I laid out at the beach, then the pool, then went back to the beach. Its 70s and sunny. Superbowl week in Miami is way better than the National Championship week in Alabama. A few tips: Sunny Iles Drive is one of the shortest paths from the Superbowl to the beach. Sunny Iles drive = MLK blvd. (remember what Chris Rock said about MLK drive? If not, watch this – starting about the 30 second mark.) don't worry, things clear up and you make it to the beach where everything is good. Turn right at the ocean and Southbeach and the rich folks are down there.

95.7 is not the oldies channel, like it is in Milwaukee. If you only speak english, put this at pre-set #1. All Espanol all the time. Love it. We were jamming it in the red mustang convertible driving to the hotel; the locals were impressed. Finally, we saw the Goodyear blimp cruising over Miami beach today. Probably taking some film for footage to show during the game.. So if you see it, be prepared that, unfortunately for us, and those like us, the ratio of banana hammocks to thongs is 1.5 to 1. Maybe its a bad time of year. And to be clear, not many of the aforementioned people should be sporting such items.

Thank you field reporter, Squirrel!! Now on to the overhyped stories for the week:

5 – Tim Tebow’s anti-abortion ad.

This is not the forum to discuss pro-life or pro-choice. I don’t really care what stance you have, it’s your right to have that opinion one way or the other. Tim Tebow also has that right to have an opinion and considering his story (his mother was encouraged to abort her pregnancy due to medical complications and she chose to have the baby, which grew into Tim), how could you blame him for having that stance? The issue is whether the NFL/CBS can control whether to show it. If they open up the lid to this ad, then the next step will be an ad for the opposing view and then we’ll get ads for and against political candidates. It’s a slippery slope away from funny beer and internet commercials that people actually enjoy watching during the game.

4 – Kyle Eckel

I won’t rehash the details here, as Gregg Doyel does a much better job of it here. It’s just a strange story without any clear answers, but if Eckel does anything in the game, Jim Nantz and Phill Simms will beat the story into the ground. Speaking of Jim Nantz, did everyone see his guest appearance on How I Met Your Mother on Monday night? Fantastic. Definitely worth a replay. He came across as funny, and a regular guy, which is the opposite of how he came off during his divorce when his wife accused him of wanting to hang a 15 foot painting of himself in their living room.

3 – Colt’s Shun Perfection

If the Colts win the game, there will be an endless stream of people in the media making the following statement “The Colts won every game they gave full effort in, so they could have went 19-0.” Life doesn’t work like that, people. For all we know, if Peyton had stayed in the game against the Jets, Calvin Pace might have broken free and left a “remember me” shot (thanks Gregg Williams!) on Peyton that could have ended his season. Or maybe Reggie Wayne twists an ankle. Or….you get the point. It's the "Butterfly Effect" in that one little change in the past has huge ripple effects on the future. There is no telling what could or would have happened. The Colts believed resting their players was the best decision to help them win the Super Bowl. If they win on Sunday, that resting decision was the best decision they could have made. That’s all that matters.

2 – Dwight Freeeney’s Ankle

I’m not saying his ankle isn’t a huge deal in determining who will win the game. He is the best player on the fast Colts defense and his ankle will slow him significantly if he is able to play at all. I just don’t want to hear about it on Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday and Friday and Saturday. It is not going to heal overnight. It’s just not. Anyone who has busted up an ankle like this is well aware of how little changes in 1 day. Yet we’re going to get doctors, witch doctors, psychics and that guy who sings “Pants on the Ground” to weigh in on whether Freeney will be able to play. Speaking of gruesome injuries, check out the picture of Brett Favre’s ankle after the NFC Championship. While I don’t like him as a person, you cannot argue with the dude’s toughness.

1 – Kim’s Boyfriend, Reggie Bush

We get it, Kim Kardashian is a star because she looks great in a dress or a bikini. Wait, has she ever done anything to be famous other than make a sex tape with Brandi’s little brother, Ray-Jay? Well, her step-father is Olympic gold medalist Bruce Jenner, does that make her famous? Nope, not really. Has she acted? Nope. Anyway, we’re going to get bombarded with stories about whether her and Reggie are going to get married, and plenty of shots of the entire Kardashian crew traveling to the game together. The real story is whether Reggie can have an impact on the game the way he did against the Cardinals. Because if he does, there is a chance the Saints will give him a nice fat contract extension. If he doesn’t, it’s going to raise questions on whether he is worth the investment and the Saints could cut him loose from their backfield which already contains solid backs like Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.

Tuesday Ramblings - Awards Show!

The Oscar Nominations came out today which means people with even more free time than me will be trying to argue whether computer generated 3-D is more impressive than movies set in reality with people doing mostly realistic things. I haven’t seen Avatar – yes, I’m one of the 5 who haven’t – and I don’t have any desire to see it. The whole 3-D thing is not of interest to me, and I’m not a science fiction fan, with the exception of Star Wars, so I probably will never see it.

Anyway, so how do I link that to today’s post? How about handing out some awards for the NFL Playoffs thus far? Sure, why not? And since we’re holding our own awards show, I’ll make sure to invite Katy Perry to the show, just for entertainment for you. You’re welcome.

Best Performance – Male: Peyton Manning – QB Colts

This one is more of a slam dunk than Jerry Rice being elected to the Hall of Fame on Saturday. Manning went through two of the toughest defenses in the league in Baltimore and the Jets on his way to the Super Bowl. Even if the Ravens and Jets were the #5 and #6 seeds, they were the most physical teams in the playoffs, and Manning was masterful in dissecting them. The only thing left for him to do is to claim the Lombardi trophy on Sunday night. He’s marching his way up the list of all-time quarterbacks (as we discussed last week).

Best Supporting Performance – Female: Kim Kardashian

Whatever she did to motivate Reggie Bush before the playoffs started seemed to work. Whether the alleged threat of marriage to Kim was a motivator or not can be debated, but something got into him against the Cardinals and he looked like that guy with an extra gear that he was during his career at USC. Kim will be at the Super Bowl this weekend, and I’m sure that we’ll be treated to numerous shots of her up in a luxury box, wearing her Saints gear and rooting for her own ring to match Reggie’s Super Bowl winning ring.

Best Director: Rex Ryan – NY Jets

The outspoken, rotund coach of the Jets got his team to believe that they were the best team in the playoffs and advanced further than no one but him thought was possible. While he fell short of the ultimate goal of getting to the Super Bowl, he had a rookie quarterback, a rookie running back and a wide receiver who couldn’t catch the ball. He was basically the equivalent of that guy who made Napoleon Dynamite – a cast of nobody actors and actresses that somehow turned into one of the funniest movies of the decade.

Worst Best Performance: Adrian Peterson – RB Vikings

Another slam dunk that is almost as sure of a bet as whether there will be fireworks in Chicago between perpetually angry Mike Martz with his perpetually pouting quarterback, Jay Cutler. Peterson busted off over 100 yards and 3 TDs against the Saints, yet all anyone wanted to talk about was his penchant for fumbling. He is on the verge of losing his standing as the best running back in the league. If they gave out this award in movies, Megan Fox would win every year. There is no worse actress who still gets roles in bad movies.

Fastest Deterioration from a Franchise QB to a Mediocre Game Manager: Carson Palmer – QB Bengals

This was a guy that in his 2nd through 5th year in the league averaged 4,000 yards and over 28 touchdowns per season. Yet this year he barely threw for over 3,000 yards and in the playoffs against the Jets, he threw for 146 yards. What happened? I get the knee injury which cost him a full season of trying to get back to full strength but he doesn’t even resemble the same strong-armed quarterback with a pocket presence that he was when he came into the league. This would be the Jennifer Lopez award for someone that gained attention with one aggressively cut dress, and continues to try and convince people she’s talented, when we all know the truth.

Best Performance Blowing Team’s Chances: San Diego Chargers

So, you’re getting ready to play the best defense in the league in the divisional playoff game on your home field. How would you stay focused? Get a little extra film session in to make sure you are ultra-familiar with the Jets extensive blitz packages? Spend some quality time with your family to relax and allow yourself to conserve energy? Or head over to the Pure Platinum club and get boozed up with strippers? Yeah, we know what the Chargers chose, and that couldn’t have helped prevent them from choking against the Jets.

Biggest Disappointment – Team: New England Patriots

Before this season, there were a couple of things that appeared carved in stone: You don’t beat Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in New England during the playoffs. You don’t bet against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in the playoffs. You don’t question any decisions by Bill Belichick on the field. All of those came crashing down this year, from the failed 4th and 2 against the Colts, Brady looking awful in the playoffs and the Patriots bowing out after losing at Gillette Stadium. It will be interesting to see where they go from here. Basically, they’re Jennifer Anniston after Friends ended and she was in a couple of poor movies like Rumor Has It. Are the Patriots going to bounce back and like Jen, look better with age?

Most Expected Meltdown that Somehow Surprised Us But Should Not Have: Philadelphia Eagles

Let’s see, we have the worst clutch quarterback with a winning record and the worst clutch playoff coach in history going on the road against a divisional rival. And this same team had already lost in Oakland earlier in the year. Yet somehow we were convinced that the Eagles might actually have a chance against the Cowboys? Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have made careers of collapsing in the playoffs and coming up short in big moments. Yet somehow the Eagles tempt us like John Mayer with all of the starlets in Hollywood (& now Nashville as it is rumored he’s seeing Taylor Swift). And it ends the same way, tears and disappointment.

Best Dramatic Performance: Cardinals beating Packers in Overtime

This was the best game of the playoffs, without question. There were a ton of blow outs in this year’s playoffs, but this one was not one of them, despite the Cardinals jumping out to a 21 point lead early. There were huge plays, controversial calls and non-calls, and tremendous performances from both quarterbacks. Obviously as a Packer fan, the result was crushing for me, yet taking the fan side of things and putting it aside, this game was beyond entertaining to watch.