Breaking Down the Tourney Prospects (part 1)

UPDATE: Join the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge! It's free to join. Click here for details.

Now that the Oscar’s are out of the way, it is time to lock our focus in on the NCAA Tournament. If you want to read about what teams are on the bubble, seedings, and in-depth stat analysis, head over to Luke Winn (Badger alum) or Seth Davis of SI.com, or Joe Lunardi or Andy Katz (a Badger alum!) from ESPN. What you’ll get here is which team has an Erika Christensen front court, a Kim Kardashian backcourt and Lt. Aldo Raine (Inglorious Basterds) leadship combined with some real basketball knowledge. That is basically The Sports Addict all wrapped up in one paragraph.

Before we dig into the hoops stuff, a quick story……..I was walking through Brooklyn on Saturday afternoon, and walked past a few barber shops. In the window of both places was a sign full of different haircuts, each with a number below the picture (similar to the picture on the right). Is this how lazy and unoriginal we have become in this country? We can’t even explain to our barber how we want our hair cut so we have to order our haircut like we’re ordering Chinese food? Yeah, I could really go for the #12 today – oh, you mean you want the beef & brocolli haircut? Or this time do you want the #32 – Kung Pow Chicken ‘do? And what happens when you order a #17 – Chong Qing Spicy Beef haircut and the barber tells you that your hair isn’t long enough?

Time to break down the top 25 teams based purely on their upside potential in the tournament next week. I will break down the teams and determine why they will advance deep in the tourney, why they won’t, and make a way-too-early prediction how far they can go. Obviously a tremendous amount of a team’s success in the tournament depends upon the brackets and matchups, but this will get us started. Overall, there is not that dominant team this year, and there is a deep list of teams that probably goes 15 deep that could win the championship, but the drop off is pretty severe in talent once you get past 30, which is why the bubble is full of below average teams like Arizona State, Washington, and UConn.

1. Kansas Jayhawks
Why They Will: They are the Bar Rafaeli in that they have the full package of talent, depth, and experience – a solid frontcourt and a dominant backcourt. They also qualify under the “Fat Point Guard” rule with Sheron Collins, which has led Mateen Cleaves, Sherman Douglas and Khalid Al-Amin to the Final Four.

Why They Won’t: Bill Self. Yes, he finally won a title a few years ago, but he still does not have a strong record in the NCAA tournament. The other reason they could falter is that they do not play the lock-down defense that is typical of national championships.

Bottom Line: They have the ability to win it all and should make it to the sweet 16 without breaking a sweat, but they could lose once they’re there.

2. Kentucky Wildcats
Why They Will: They are Miley Cyrus, young, talented and kind of annoying. They also have an overexposed leaders (Billy Ray Cyrus & John Calipari), but you can’t deny the fact that they have a dedicated fan base and they have star talent with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

Why They Won’t: Their youth is their blessing and their curse. Can they keep their focus and their poise and not be rattled? John Wall is not Derrick Rose, who played like a senior during his run to the Finals with Memphis.

Bottom Line: See Kansas – they have the talent to win the title, and should not have issues before the sweet 16 where it might get closer. Still likely to at least make the elite eight.


3. Syracuse Orange
Why They Will: The Jim Boeheim zone defense is dangerous in the post season when they play teams that are not used to seeing anything other than man-to-man. In addition, they are a true team, not a collection of stars. Kind of like Rachel McAdams – no stand out quality, but solid all around game that stacks up against anyone.

Why They Won’t: They might match up with Louisville at some point, and Louisville is responsible for 2 of the Orange’s 3 losses this season. Can another team take that template and make it work for them? They will need an athletic big man like Louisville’s Samardo Samuel, and strong guard play like Jerry Smith & Edgar Sosa (or the backup guard that dropped 22 in the second half when Smith got hurt).

Bottom Line: A serious contender for the final four, but they could also be the first top seed eliminated by a hot shooting #8/#9 seed in the second round.

4. Duke Blue Devils
Why They Will: Like Anna Kendrick, they appear to be smart, reserved, and well-managed/coached. Unfortunately, that got Kendrick a nomination, but she couldn’t compete with the title contenders. Duke has an experienced team with a coach that is not a stranger to the big game.

Why They Won’t: They are not physical, and not athletic enough to play with the top teams. They are 8-4 against the RPI top 50, but their best win away from home was against Clemson.

Bottom Line: Duke will be passed for the final top seed, and they could be in danger as early as the second round.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why The Will: They have the best player in the country in Evan Turner, and he is surrounded with the key factors that can come together for a deep tournament run including a shooter in Jon Diebler, tough defense and second and third scoring options in David Lighty and William Bufford. They are the Victoria’s Secret runway show, with Evan Turner starring as Marisa Miller, and he’s surrounded by quite a bit of talent.

Why They Won’t: They are not deep with Thad Motta typically only going 7 deep in the regular rotation. They could be worn out if they go deep in the Big Ten tourney and then have to grind it out over the two weeks of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a title contender (and were my futures bet a few weeks back), yet they have the potential to get knocked out in the sweet 16 by a deep team that uses full court pressure to wear them out – Louisville? Tennessee?

6. Purdue Boilermakers
Why They Will: They have the ‘win it for Robbie” motivation of playing without their emotional leader, and can rally together. They have a premier scorer who can create his own shots in E’Twaan Moore, an inside presence in JuJuan Johnson and a strong defensive scheme. They are Tara Reid – talented but going under the knife has destroyed their future.

Why They Won’t: Missing their double-double machine is a huge hit to their tournament hopes. In addition, they may not have the outside shooting needed to make a long run.


Bottom Line: They still have the talent to make a deep run, but without Hummel, they will not make the final four. Look for them to flame out in the sweet 16.

7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Why They Will: They have Bob Huggins, so you know they are a tough defensive team, which gives them a chance in the tournament. They also have fought their way through the toughest conference in the country, so they are battle-tested. Yet can you name their leading scorer? Can you name anyone on their team? They have the Erika Christensen strong front court, with forwards as their top three scorers – Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones & Devin Ebanks.

Why They Won’t: A lack of strong guard play is the biggest concern for the Mountaineers. They have the experienced coach, but without a coach on the floor, it’s tough to see them getting all the way through the gauntlet of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a dark-horse candidate to steal the last #1 seed, which could get them to the sweet 16 with ease. West Virginia could be that team that not many people have advancing deep in the tournament because they don’t know anything about them. This could be one way for you to stand out from the crowd – because you know about Erika Christensen and how her frontcourt can get you on a hot streak.

8. New Mexico
Why They Will: Despite their high ranking, they are an underdog because no one knows anything about them other than they are coached by Steve Alford and he called a BYU player an a$$hole during a post game handshake. They can use that slight as motivation, and they have some strong wins against fringe tournament teams like Cal and Texas A&M in addition to sweeping conference foe BYU. They are the Audrina Patridge – they look good on paper, but they may be doing it with smoke and mirrors (or non-factory-installed parts).

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the elite athletes to compete with the fourth or fifth place teams from the Big East, Big Ten or Big 12, which is what the Lobos will face in the second round if they get a #2 seed.

Bottom Line: They are ripe for the second round upset by a hot #7 or #10 team – much like Wisconsin was beat by Moutain West team UNLV a few years back. I like Steve Alford, but he can’t perform miracles.

9. Kansas State Wildcats
Why They Will: Strong guard play with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen. They have the ability to score on many teams and are very athletic, which could lead to a long run in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: I’ve written about it before, but the team runs emotionally high based on the high emotion of their coach Frank Martin. As a result, they bring high energy, but can play out of control at times. That will be the downfall for them in the tournament when the lights are brightest and the pressure kicks up to a level they have not seen. The best comparison for this team: Sarah Silverman – they can be entertaining, but they are legit crazy.


Bottom Line: Look for K-State to flame out before the sweet 16 if they get matched up against a disciplined, well-coached team.

10. Villanova Wildcats
Why They Will: They have a great coach, and strong, veteran guard play. Scottie Reynolds returned to school to get back to the Final Four (and because he won’t be able to cut it in the NBA). They have made it through the obstacle course that is the Big East and are ready for the big stage.

Why They Won’t: They don’t play strong enough defense. Much like Jennifer Aniston, they have all the qualities you are looking for, yet they have no defenses to fend off douchebags from doing whatever they want to them.

Bottom Line: You can’t count them out because they are experienced and have strong leadership. Yet, without the ability to get a defensive stop when needed, they will be dropped in the elite eight.

11. Michigan State Spartans
Why They Will: As much as Tom Izzo cries and whines, the guy can flat out get it done in the tournament. He has the skilled players in Kalen Lucas and Raymar Morgan, and they always play defense. Like Jessica Simpson, they whine too much and have their share of detractors, yet when they are in fighting shape, they can compete with anyone.

Why They Won’t: They are not very athletic and don’t shoot very well from outside the arc. Their matchups will be the key to determining how far they can go in the tournament.

Bottom Line: You can typically pencil them in automatically into the sweet 16 and they have a really good chance to get to the elite eight. If they can somehow get placed in the weak bracket (the committee does a good job, but there are always tougher and weaker brackets) with the last #1 seed (West Virginia?), a weaker #2 seed (New Mexico?) and a struggling #3 seed (Villanova? Pittsburgh?), and an overrated #4 seed (Temple?) then you would have to like Michigan State as a #5 seed.

12. Butler Bulldogs
Why They Will: They won’t.

Why They Won’t: Much like Gonzaga, they have bypassed their role as the mid-major powerhouse that sneaks up on teams that overlook them. They are now a known commodity, which means that teams are prepared for their stingy defense, disciplined plodding offense and ankle-biting guard play. They are just the annoying bug on the windshield of the teams from the major conferences on their way to the next round. Like Rachel Uchitel, their schemes have been exposed for what they are, and they no longer stand out in a crowd.

Bottom Line: Yes, they beat Ohio State (without Evan Turner), but they lost to Georgetown, Clemson and Minnesota. Look for them to be a #4 or #5 seed, and if they get a major conference team in the first round, they are ripe for the picking.

13. Wisconsin Badgers
Why They Will: The Badgers have the strong guard play, hot shooting, stingy defense and an inside presence that can lead to a long tournament run. They also have a great coach capable of developing game plans to stop anyone – and he looks like the Badger mascot when he gets angry. They have played without their best player, Jon Leuer, for a significant portion of the season, so the team is used to having guys step up and make plays. The Reese Witherspoon of the field – they have the classic beauty and talent to be the star of the dance.

Why They Won’t: They are not very deep, and they still have long scoring droughts despite the abilities of Trevon Hughes, Jordan Taylor and Leuer to create their own shots. Reese looked good with Ryan Phillippe and then with Jake Gyleanhaal, and yet both of those relationships didn’t go the distance.

Bottom Line: They have all the tools to make it to the Final Four, but much will be determined by their bracket and matchups. If they end up a #4 seed in the same bracket as a Kansas or Kentucky, the sweet 16 could be the ceiling for this squad.

Well, this has turned into a really long post, and your boss is probably wondering why you’ve been chuckling at your computer when you were supposed to be working on that spreadsheet to determine how to increase the profitability of this new hot product/deal that he’s bringing to the market even though you know it’s going to be a colossal failure. So check back tomorrow for the second half of the top 25 breakdown.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the second half....

(and yes, I had a brain fart and said Tom Crean when I meant Tom Izzo, the coach of Michigan State. My bad. They're both whiney bitches named Tom - Izzo just has been tremendously more successful.)

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Degenerate Friday - NBA Dunk Contest?

Now that the football season has officially ended, Degenerate Friday needs to find other things to bet on. And as I covered a few weeks ago, the way to make money in college basketball is on the smaller conferences with less available data. I’m not going to get into discussing those games because let’s face it, as soon as I start mentioning the Ivy League, I start to get sleepy, so I’m sure you do as well.

I was boarding a flight to Milwaukee to help my sister move (at least it’s my sister and not Keith Hernandez asking me to move) and Devin Harris of the New Jersey Nets was on my flight. We chatted very briefly while we were boarding the plane, asked him how his injuries were (he’s sore but feeling pretty good), asked if he was headed home to see his family (a quick stop before going to Orlando for some sun over the All-Star break), and I wished him well for the rest of the season. While he’s still thin, he definitely has bulked up some since his days at the Kohl Center in Madison.

It got me thinking about the All-Star break, and what used to be the greatest night of the NBA season – All-Star Saturday Night – when all the best talent in the league would compete in the 3-point shoot out and the dunk contest. I remember hanging out at my buddy Sally’s (a guy – nicknamed Sally as a mocking of his manhood. He calls my Nancy) parents house eating pizza, listening to his dad pass gas and watching the festivities. Those were the days where the biggest stars – Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Dominique Wilkins, etc. – competed in the events. And while the dunks may not have been quite as high-flying back then, they were extremely majestic and powerful. Check out these Jordan highlights:

Being that we have to bet on something over the weekend, let’s take a look at the contestants in this year’s competition and where we should bet. Below are the odds I could find from bodog.com:

Dwight Howard (Orlando): 20-31Rudy Fernandez (Portland): 13-4J.R. Smith (Denver): 7-2Nate Robinson (N.Y. Knicks): 19-4

The biggest factor to consider for this year’s competition is that part of the judging will be done via text message. That has a huge benefit for Rudy Fernandez who may secure all of the European text votes. Spaniards are big on hoops and definitely would take some pride in having one of their own bring home a dunk crown. It would also continue to improve the perception of the foreign-born players as more than just finese jumpshooters.

Dwight Howard is the overwhelming favorite with his Superman persona and big smile to sway the audience. While his athleticism is impressive, for me, the fact that he’s a 7-footer just kind of diminishes all of his dunks. He’s already closer to the rim than any of us, so he should be able to throw down nasty dunks, right? So then I should probably go with Nate Robinson as the shortest contestant at somewhere around 5’9”, right? While I like the “Krypto-Nate” routine that he pulled, I can’t see him pulling enough of the text votes, particularly from Europe to come away with the win.

J.R. Smith has the ability to win this contest, as he has the perfect combination of insane hops, size to make the aerial displays look impressive, and craziness to try any dunk. The reason he won’t win? Who knows who J.R. Smith is outside of Denver? No one. There will be very, very few overseas texts voting for the tattoo’d guy who looks more like the black guy on Scrubs than he does an NBA player. He also strikes me as the guy that will try to do something so insane that he misses and gets eliminated because he keeps missing.

So where do we bet? I think the best value lies with Rudy Fernandez. At 13-4 odds, it’s a decent pay day on a guy who can throw down and has European support. It also helps the NBA increase its global presence by being able to promote another of its foreign-born players as an up-and-coming star on an up-and-coming team in Portland. Then again, others that have won the contest include JR Rider, Desmond Mason and Brent Barry. Being dunk champ didn’t exactly boost their careers.

All that said, if Dominique Wilkins, Shawn Kemp (before he pulled a Kirstie Alley) or Kenny “Sky” Walker entered this year’s competition, I’d bet on them.

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Have you ever heard the phrase “It’s better to keep your mouth shut and be thought an idiot than to open your mouth and remove all doubt”? Pretty sure John Mayer should have that tattoo’d on both of his hands, Sarah Palin-style, as a constant reminder. In one interview with Playboy he proved beyond a doubt that some long, wavy hair and the ability to play the guitar are all it takes to get laid by some of the hottest women in Hollywood. He managed to call his junk racist, dromb an “n-bomb” and complement Jessica Simpson’s ability in the sack.

He then backpedaled faster than Deion Sanders in his prime, arguing that he should have known that he wouldn’t be able to “intellectualize” his use of such a derogatory word. John, you may have a way with words with bimbos, but you did a hell of a job of making an ass of yourself. It doesn’t even matter what your intentions were – you just have to be smarter than that to know that it’s a lightning rod that you don’t want to be anywhere near.

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Last add: Yesterday was the 20-year anniversary of Mike Tyson getting knocked by Buster Douglas in Tokyo. I think sometimes it’s hard for those that are too young to have been around when Tyson was the most feared man in the world. Now he’s only known as this complete lunatic who does a great karaoke of Phil Collins and has a tattoo on his face. Back in the day he was among the biggest stars in the entire world and opponents were generally scared out of their minds before the fight would even begin. Just watch the highlights

Degenerate Friday!! Week 15 - Overexposed Celebrities

I don’t even know what to say about the Chris Henry situation. It’s such a tragedy for a guy who could not handle the fame and success early in his life, constantly putting himself in bad situations. However it appeared that he had finally turned a corner and had his life headed in the right direction. He leaves behind his fiancé (who obviously will be a mental wreck for the foreseeable future) and 3 young kids.

So let’s move on to happier things, like week 15 in the NFL or my picks from last week. Well, 8-7-1 is not exactly anything to celebrate, but it’s an improvement from the previous couple weeks. This week’s games are broken down into categories based on overexposed celebrities from the past year……and I left out plenty of them.

Standard disclosures as always: recreational use only, spreads from the NY Post, home teams in CAPS, etc.

The Gosselins Category
Before Tiger and Elin’s failing marriage, most of 2009 was focused on the collapse of the Jon and Kate Gosselin. For some reason, the media couldn’t get enough of the media-whoring couple with Kate getting a makeover to enhance her on-screen appearance and Jon believing that he was a celebrity. In the end, it’s just a poor situation for the unfortunate 8 kids. At least the porky Jon still has his Ed Hardy t-shirts and shades to make him feel famous. These games are bad matchups (like the Gosselins) and like their finally cancelled show, no one is paying attention to them.

Browns (+1.5) over CHIEFS
I’m fearful of the Browns having a letdown (first time that has ever been said?) after their emotional win over the Steelers. However, Brady Quinn is trying to prove that he can be a viable NFL quarterback (he can) and Eric Mangini is trying to audition for his next job since Mike Holmgren is going to fire him. The Chiefs are terrible and have to be wondering if they made a “Scott Mitchell” sized mistake in signing Matt Cassell to a long-term deal.

Texans (No Line) over RAMS
This game could not be much less interesting. I think Keith Null is starting at quarterback again for the Rams, so that’s enough for me to take the Texans and Andre Johnson to blow them out.

SEAHAWKS (-7) over Buccaneers
The Seahawks have been better at home this season, and the Bucs are getting in position to draft Ndamukong Suh with the top pick. The Seahawks will latch on to a couple of these late season wins over bad teams as a reason for a hopeful future the same way Jon Gosselin believed hanging out with Michael Lohan made him famous.

The Tom Cruise & Katie Holmes Category
They’ve been a strange fascination for the country ever since Tom jumped on Oprah’s couch. The couple has always had a strange vibe to them, as if Tom had brainwashed Katie and she had become his Stepford Wife. And once they brought Suri into the mix, the tabloids were always around as Katie tried to show how normal the family was. The couple is a mismatch from both a looks and a talent standpoint. Tom is the more talented professional with a long line of successful movies and Katie’s highlight was Dawson’s Creek. However, Katie is far and away the one blessed with the looks. In this matchup, it’s easy to root for one of them, and it’s not Tom Cruise. And can we please stop with the ridiculous blended names? Brangelina? TomKat? Enough. These games are bad match-ups as well, with one playoff-bound team against a team from the bottom of the league.

Patriots (-7) over BILLS
The Patriots haven’t won on the road yet this season (London against the pathetic Bucs doesn’t count), and the Bills should have beat the Patriots in Gillette Stadium in Week 1. So why would I want to lay 7 to these plucky Bills? Because the Pats running game is better than people realize (118+ yds/game) and the Bills run defense is awful – worst in the league. Brady won’t even need Moss this week.

Cardinals (-12) over LIONS
Arizona will rebound from from their turnover-fest against the Niners and will destroy the Lions who are likely playing without Kevin Smith or Matthew Stafford. This game could end up being as boring as Vanilla Sky.

EAGLES (-9) over 49ers
The Niners are traveling to the east coast on a short week after an emotional Monday night win and have an early start time. The 1:00 start in Philly is 10:00 for the mental clocks of San Francisco. Add in the fact that the Eagles are more talented and this seems like it’s gold, Jerry. Gold. The Eagles dynamic offense will continue to stack up huge yards and points, distancing themselves in the NFC East.

Vikings (-9) over PANTHERS
A win in this game will lock up the division for the Vikings, and if the Saints slip up against the Cowboys on Saturday night, they will still have a shot at home field advantage. Either way, their defense will be able to slow the running game of the Panthers, meaning Carolina will be relying on Matt Moore. Enough said.

The Jessica Simpson Category
When was the last time she came out with an album? September 2008, and it was a country album. Yet she has been on the cover of every weekly rag mag – US Weekly, OK!, People, etc – 3,432,917 times during 2009. She’s dating John Mayer, now she’s not. She’s dating Tony Romo, and now she’s not. She put a curse on Tony Romo. Now she’s even been linked to Tiger. Enough already – yes, we enjoy your “talents” but we don’t care that you can’t find love. You probably had it with Nick Lachey and you let your crazy father run your life and career into the ground. We want to root for you, Jess, we do. But you just need to lay low, stay out of the headlines and focus on singing, it’s the only thing other than filling out a dress you do really well.

JETS (-6) over Falcons
The Falcons will likely still be without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, which will make it a challenge against the top-ranked Jets defense. The Falcons will also be leaving the friendly confines of a dome for the cold weather at the Meadowlands, where temps are expected to be in the 20’s.

Packers (+2) over STEELERS
The Steelers have blown their shot at the playoffs, and if the Browns defense could dominate their offensive line, the Packers dynamic defense will destroy them. Without Troy Polamalu in the secondary, the Steelers pass defense has been very average, which does not bode well with Aaron Rodgers playing extremely well. If Green Bay can establish the run early, they should be able to keep their strong grip on the #5 seed in the NFC.

Dolphins (+3) over TITANS
This was the second-hardest game to pick this week. The Titans are still playing hard and playing as well as anyone in the league. However, the Dolphins are the more desperate team as they fight for the final playoff spot in the AFC. With Vince Young likely out and Kerry Collins back at the helm, the Dolphins can put all of their focus on containing Chris Johnson, which should be enough to get it done for Miami.

RAVENS (-11) over Bears
Baltimore took out quite a few frustrations on Detroit last week, and now they get another subpar team to pound on. They need every win to get themselves into the playoffs and they will come out and show they want it against Chicago. The Bears have laid some big eggs this year, getting blown out Cincy, Arizona & Minnesota. This one could be uglier than Jessica Simpson in those strange high-waisted pants.

Giants (-3) over REDSKINS
The Giants have to win this game to stay in the playoff hunt. Despite their defense playing awful and the Redskins offense playing better, New York will be ready to rally. Big Blue still has the 4th best rushing offense in the NFC and combined with their big receivers, Eli should be able to orchestrate some points. Redskins at least got the Monday night focus off of their pitiful season and on to their coaching search. Gruden has supposedly turned down Bruce Allen already and it looks like Mike Shanahan will bring his awkwardly tanned face to the sidelines in Washington next year.

The Lindsay Lohan Category
She has been an actress since she was a little girl and was thrust into the spotlight as an attractive young woman. Someone then introduced her to booze and coke, which it turns out was a bad decision. Amazingly that has not worked out very well for her career or her looks. She’s 23 years old, but has the face of a 50 year old. And yet, despite her being a train wreck, you feel bad, but at the same time, it’s entertaining to try and see what she does next. These games are the only games this week between teams that would currently be in the playoffs if they started today.

SAINTS (-7) over Cowboys
The Superdome will be rocking as the Saints saw the Colts get to 14-0, and now have their chance to match. The Saints offense will be able to slice through the Ware-less Cowboys defense and put plenty of points on the board. The Cowboys have not fared well in December yet again, but this year, it’s more the schedule than the lack of execution by the Cowboys. If the Cowboys bring their “Lindsay Lohan on the cover of GQ in 2004” game to the field on Saturday night, they have a chance to pull the upset and make a national statement. Yet, Wade Phillips is the cocaine that turns Lindsay from 2004 to 2010. Sorry Dallas, it is the year of the Saints……well, except for Letterman, Steve Phillips, Tiger Woods, Mark Sanford, John Edwards, LeAnn Rimes & Eddie Cibrian.

Bengals (+6.5) over CHARGERS
This was the hardest game of the week to pick, as the Chargers are on fire, but the Bengals now have the emotional motivation of the Chris Henry tragedy. The Bengals are talented and with the extra emotion involved, should come out to play this game in honor of their late teammate. The Chargers are the better team and will beat the Bengals if they see them in the playoffs, but on this day at this time, they don’t have as much to play for.

If We Knew Then What We Know Now........2009

First things first – the most important health news you will receive – EVER. You’re welcome.

LATE ADD - Thursday NFL Pick:
Colts (-3) over JAGUARS
Coach Caldwell wants to rest his players and the players want to go for the undefeated season. Something tells me the Colts will blow up the Jags early in an attempt to put the game away before Caldwell can take them out.

As we begin to wrap up 2009, instead of listing off the top movies or songs or albums or something of the year, I decided to take a little trip back in time. So hop in the Delorean with Marty McFly, fire it up with one-point-twenty-one jiggawatts of power and let’s set the destination to January 1, 2009. Let’s look at things we were pretty certain of at that time, and how they ended up playing out during the year. And next week I’ll come up with the things we believe at the end of 2009.

Belief #1: Brett Favre is retired and going to (finally) disappear into the vast farmland of Mississippi. After trying to force his way to the Vikings, Brett ended up with one poor season in New York hampered by a torn bicep, and it appeared pretty obvious to everyone that his tank had run dry and that he would finally hang up the cleats for good.

End of Year Reality #1: Favre did in fact retire in February 2009, blubbering like a little baby and telling ESPN that “there is no chance” he’ll play football again. Yet we all saw the ridiculous circus that ensued, with Favre denying that the Vikings had reached out to him, then eventually having his driver, Coach Brad Childress, pick him up from the airport. Favre is now among the favorites to win the league MVP, leading Minnesota to an 11-2 record. While some may have predicted the return to the game, very few people expected him to play as well as he has. Level of Surprise: Kim Kardashian Sex Tape (intriguing, but not really surprising)

Belief #2: The Arizona Cardinals were lucky to sneak into the playoffs by winning a terrible division, and would quickly be eliminated by the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons. The Cardinals won the putrid NFC West early and coasted the final weeks of the season. They looked like easy prey for Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and the Falcons.

End of the Year Reality #2: The Cards got hot in the playoffs, squeaked by Falcons, flattened the Panthers on the road, and beat the Eagles in Phoenix to advance to the Super Bowl. Suddenly the Cards offense was among the most dangerous in the league and their defense was playing as well as any team in the league. The end result was they were a few seconds, inches and an amazing Santonio Holmes tip toe in the endzone from being the Super Bowl champs. Kurt Warner was making you seriously consider him as a potential Hall-of-Famer, completing a comeback that could only be rivaled by the turnaround his wife made from resembling Annie Lennox of the Eurythmics (look her up kids) to being kind of a sneaky snicky. Level of Surprise: Carrie Prejean Sex Tape (we knew she had it in her)

Belief #3: Tiger Woods was coming off knee surgery, primed to continue his assault on Jack Nicklaus’s record 18 majors. He won the 2008 US Open on one leg, so there was no doubt that he would be able to rehab quickly and continue to dominate the PGA Tour. And as if his professional life didn’t seem good enough, he had a Swedish model for a wife with one beautiful kid and a baby due in a few months.

End of the Year Reality #3: He won 7 events on the tour and took home his second FedEx Cup championship. For almost 11 months, the year had gone exactly how you would have expected for Tiger. However, there was a reason he was so big on privacy, as his entire empire eventually collapsed around him due to his “transgressions” with a harem of women, concerns over his extreme gambling habits and most recently potential ties to a Canadian doctor with hook-ups for HGH. He has become the butt of numerous jokes using the slogans of many of the products he endorsed:

“Is it in you? It’s in every skank in town!” (Gatorade)
“Just Do It! Literally!” (Nike)
“Go On Be A Tiger – In the Bedroom!” (Accenture)
“The Best a Man Can Get – A Perkins Waitress, Really?” (Gillette)

He’s taken an indefinite leave from golf as his wife has moved out with the kids and she is parading in public without her wedding ring. His endorsements are drying up and he’s not speaking to his celebrity friends. No one ever could have predicted this. Level of Surprise: Tiger Woods Scandal (his own level at the very highest of surprises)

Belief #4: In December 2008, the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to fix their pitching woes and help them pass the Red Sox and Rays for the AL East title. As of January 1, they were just in talks with Mark Teixeira, to join them. With a rotation of CC, AJ, Pettite, Wang, and Joba, they were expected to pitch their way to the title.

End of Year Reality #4: That’s exactly what happened. The team added Teixeira to bolster the offense, and in the playoffs they switched to a 3-man rotation, relying solely on Sabathia, Burnett & Pettite through the playoffs. Despite Alex Rodriguez admitting to using steroids and missing the early part of the season to recover from hip surgery, he started dating Kate Hudson, settled down and became clutch. Level of Surprise: Liberace and Clay Aiken playing for the other team (duh)

Belief #5: Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators were preparing to take on the Oklahoma Sooners for the national championship in Miami. Tebow was as powerful and unstoppable as the Most Interesting Man in the World from the Dos Equis commercials. The question was not whether he would win the championship, it was whether he would come back for his senior season, win another Heisman Trophy and a win a third championship.

End of the Year Reality #5: Tebow and the Gators did win the championship on January 8th and Tebow did come back for his senior season. Yet everything changed when Taylor Wyndham of Kentucky came free late in a blow out game and knocked Tebow unconscious, sending him to the hospital with a severe concussion. Suddenly he was human, there was renewed concern about his ability to play quarterback at the next level and it became clear that he was a great leader, but not among the best players in the country. He came back to play in two weeks and still was a finalist for the Heisman (finishing 5th), but the team lost their chance at a National Championship, and the aura of Tebow was broken. Level of Surprise: Jessica Simpson broke up with another boyfriend (inevitable at some point)

Belief #6: Michael Jackson had disappeared from the public radar and had become a reclusive star. There were rumors of financial trouble when he sold his Neverland ranch, and rumors of failing health when he was seen in a wheelchair. However, there was no reason to believe there would be any news around him.

End of the Year Reality #6: Michael came out in February and announced he would be doing 10 “curtain call” concerts in London. At 50 years old, he began preparing himself to put on the shows. Unfortunately, on June 25th Michael Jackson went into cardiac arrest and died, surrounded by questions regarding his personal doctor and the care and prescriptions he was receiving. The public outcry of emotion and tributes to the King of Pop continued for several months and included him posthumously collecting a handful of American Music Awards. Level of Surprise: Betty Draper finding out about Don’s secret life (no one’s rooting for it, but it was going to happen at some point)

Bonus Belief: Obama was about to take office, walk on water, bring together both parties, stop the war, solve the economic woes and fix world hunger in his spare time. The expectations were through the roof for a young politician coming out of the dirty political pool that is Chicago and Illinois.

End of Year Bonus Reality: We’re still waiting. Other than having “Cash for _______” programs, he has more rounds of golf played than problems solved. Obviously most of these problems are not quick-fixes, but we’ve seen his approval rating sink faster than Jay Leno’s ratings. I think his only campaign promise that he kept was when he said he wanted a playoff in college football, and the Senate subcommittee actually voted on it. (sorry to get political, but it is what it is) Level of Surprise: Michael Jordan's Hall of Fame Speech (suddenly falling off the pedestal)

Degenerate Friday!! Week 7 Picks

A couple quick links before getting to this week’s picks….

This is a great trivia site to kill tons of time with random useless sports knowledge.

Awesome clip of Brett Myers getting rejected by who I assume is his wife after their NLCS victory – she obviously dislikes the smell of booze or cigars.

The whole Bubble Boy story is just a scary comment on what reality television has done to some people in America. That Heene dude is a complete lunatic and should be locked up, though I’m not sure what’s worse for those kids – to not have their dad around, or to have that nutjob around. And how did he think this would help them get a reality show?

Another .500 week last week, going 7-7, and I just can’t get off the Even Steven fence. So this week, in hopes of getting a big winning week, no tiers, no categories, and no reminiscing about movies, quotes or songs. Just straight picks to take your bookie to the cleaners and buy that even bigger television and faster car. Ah, who am I kidding? Like Ricky Williams and the ganja, I’m just putting the gimmicks aside for a week.

Usual disclaimers……recreational use, home team in CAPS, etc…….

Colts (-13) over RAMS (Craptastic Game of the Week)
They couldn’t have made this spread big enough. The Colts are coming off a bye week and get to play the worst team in the league before an intriguing matchup with the 49ers the following week. Manning puts it in cruise control after the first quarter and lets Addai & Brown clean it up for the rest of the game. Rams can’t score enough points to cover with their pathetic offense.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills
This might be the worst quarterback matchup in the league with turnover machine Jake Delhomme going up against Harvard kid Ryan Fitzpatrick. Panthers will pound the ball on the ground against the Bills’ league-worst rushing defense, giving up more than 180 yards/game. The first Steve Smith remains an afterthought and won’t be needed to beat the Bills.

Patriots (-14.5) over Buccaneers (in London)
The last two years, the game in London has been a 3 point game, but they haven’t seen a team as bad as the Bucs. Belichick has his team in business mode, which typically leads to destruction and embarrassment for inferior opponents. Unless Brady, Moss and Welker get too distracted Keeley Hazell, this shouldn’t be close.

Packers (-9) over BROWNS
The Browns have covered the past two weeks, but have been ravaged by the flu this week. Add to that their leading tackler being out for the season, and the fact that they still have Derek Anderson at quarterback. Packers handled a poor Lions team last week, and if they can keep Rodgers upright, they should not have a problem winning this game by 2 scores.

Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
Even if the Redskins cover or win this game, I’ll feel comfortable with picking the Eagles. I’ll always take a team that has something to prove after puking on themselves the previous week (sorry Donovan) over a team that brought in a consultant two weeks ago, and now handed him the play-calling responsibilities and is trying to get their head coach to quit.

CHIEFS (+4.5) over Chargers
Chargers beat the Chiefs by one point in both meetings last year, and Cassell should be able to put some points on the board against the porous Chargers defense. Norv “Mr. Roper” Turner continues to underachieve, and the Chargers have the worst rushing offense in the league, averaging less than 58 yards/game. And LT has missed practice this week either due to the flu or the “f-you for taking me out at the goalline last week” virus.

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS
This is one of the toughest games to pick this week because no one knows which team will show up on either sideline. The Jets that rolled through the first 3 games this year with limited turnovers and stout defense or the team that stunk the past 3 weeks? The Raiders that looked competitive in week 1 and stumped the Eagles last week or the team that looked like a mess in between? Now that Coach Cable isn’t going to be arrested for assault, the Raiders can just play football. Unfortunately, they still have JaMarcus Russell at QB and that’s enough to tilt it to the Jets.

GIANTS (-7) over Cardinals
Traditionally the Cardinals coming east have fared about as well as Tupac making a trip to New York. But this is a night game, so the time change should be muffled. The Cards seem to have found some of their groove from last year, and with the Giants secondary banged up, they should put points on the board. However, the Giants have something to prove after getting lit up last week by the Saints, and playing at home will help them rebound big.

49ers (+3) over TEXANS
Follow the pattern with the Texans this year: Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. That means this is the week for a loss, which has to make Gary Kubiak feel like he’s sitting in a hillbilly hottub. 49ers have had two weeks to prepare to slow down the NFL leader in TDs, Matt Schaub. Crabtree will start and it won’t take much to be the most dangerous WR for the Niners.

Saints (-6) over DOLPHINS
The trendy pick is the Dolphins because they’re coming off a bye and the wildcat will run through the Saints defense. However, the Dolphins defense is going to get lit up like Pat Summerall in the announcing booth with John Madden. Remember how the Colts handled the Dolphins while barely possessing the ball, winning by 4? The Saints offense is more potent than the Colts and the Saints defense is better than the Colts. Saints roll ‘em up like Ricky Williams in the off-season.

Bears (+1) over BENGALS
The Bengals can’t handle success. They’re the Jessica Simpson of the NFL – as soon as they get a boyfriend and some fans and start to convince you that they have figured things out, they turn around and get a little too comfortable, stop trying and eventually prove that they are still unpredictable and completely crazy. Cedric Benson has something to prove against his former team, but the Bears will be ready and without Antwan Odom, the Bengals won’t be able to stop Cutler and Forte.

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
The logic for the Cowboys is that they’re coming off a bye (league average is 53% winners coming off their byes), are at home, and the Falcons are coming off a night game. Wade Phillips is 5-2 in his career coming off byes, which doesn’t compare to Andy Reid’s 11-0, but is impressive. Yet, the bottom line is that the Cowboys aren’t that good. Do we really believe Miles Austin is a #1 WR after one game – against the 1-5 Chiefs!?!?? Ryan and the Falcons are the best value of the week.

STEELERS (-4.5) over Vikings
Steelers have become a dominant passing team and the Vikings secondary got lit up by Joe Flacco before Antoine Wingfield was injured. Vikings needed a lucky break last week against the Ravens and barely squeeked by the 49ers two weeks earlier. Going into Pittsburgh against the defending champs is a tough order for anyone, and Peterson will find tough sledding against the Steelers defense that is allowing the second-fewest yards per game on the ground.

Barney Baseball

Baseball is in the final week of the regular season and I can’t remember a recent season with less drama in almost every race. The only exception is the AL Central where the Tigers and Twins are currently starting a 4 game series with the Twins trailing the Tigers by 2 games. Why does no one outside of Minnesota or Michigan care about who wins? Part of the problem is the media’s intense focus on only things involving the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers – the 3 biggest baseball markets. The other problem is that whoever wins the division is going to be first round fodder for those Yankees.

What’s better? To be the Twins where every year you might barely squeak into the playoffs and then get bounced in the first round, or to be the Marlins where they build up a team capable of winning (and they have won), then blow the whole thing up, are terrible for a couple years and then reload. I’m not sure, because I’d like to be in the playoffs every year, but do you become immune to the excitement if you just continually get bounced in the first round? Kind of like a girlfriend that has classic good looks but may not be a super model/singer vs. the girl with the boob job and botox that’s going to need to be “retuned” every few years. I think I’ll take the consistency year over year. Think Tony Romo trading in Jessica Simpson for Natalie Smith.

This season, there have barely been any changes in playoff teams since the end of June. As of June 30, the AL playoff teams would have been: Boston, NY, LA Angels, and Detroit. As of today, those are the exact same teams, the only difference is now the Yankees won the division and the Red Sox are the wildcard. In the NL, it took an extra 3 weeks, but as of July 20, the playoff teams would have been: Philly, St. Louis, Dodgers, and Colorado. As of today, those are the exact teams in the exact places.

The positive from the fact that the last 2+ months of the season have been meaningless, is that it confirms that the best teams will be active in the playoffs. These teams have proven over the course of the season that they have the best teams in their divisions and, in theory, the playoffs should be very competitive. I’ll put together a more in-depth preview once the regular season is complete, but for now I’ll just say that I think 1-2-3 starting pitchers and a couple guys who can mash are the keys to success in the playoffs.

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On a somewhat related, but different topic, I’m rooting really hard for the Rockies to fold in this past week and have the Braves or the Giants make the playoffs as the NL Wild Card. I’m not sure what I have against the Rockies – they swept the Phillies two years ago, which I thoroughly enjoyed – but I think it has something to do with the Purple Barney uniforms. Has a team wearing purple ever won a major championship?

NFL – Vikings -> Nope
NBA – Suns, Raptors (since dropped), Kings, Jazz, Bucks (since dropped) -> Nope
MLB – Rockies -> Nope
NHL – LA Kings -> Nope

The only real exception is the LA Lakers. Their purple and gold has won many championships, so maybe they break the rules about winning while looking like Barney.

I guess the only other exceptions I can think of are the Baltimore Ravens, but they are primarily black and white and use purple and gold as accent colors……maybe. And I guess you could make a case for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but since they’ve changed colors 3,217 times in the 11 years they’ve had a team, I’m not sure it counts.

So maybe that’s why I don’t want to see the Rockies in the playoffs. Either that or it’s the fact that games at Coors are never the classic pitching duels I like in the playoffs. Or I’d rather watch Lincecum or Tommy Hanson pitch than……….sorry, can’t think of a Rockies pitcher – Ubaldo Jimenez?