Friday, September 18, 2009

Degenerate Friday!!!

So after Week 1 treated me like a baby treats a diaper, week 2 is usually a good week to make up some ground because people overreact to one week and the lines are artificially inflated. There are a ton of home favorites this week, so it might not be a great week to load up on underdogs on the road. With respect to Bill Simmons, in general I don’t take an underdog on the road unless you believe they can win the game outright, but it’s always more interesting when the home team is catching double-digit points – which happens twice this week.

Let’s get right to the picks……and I’m sure I should probably put some disclaimer on here that these picks should only be for recreational purposes (unless you’re in Vegas). Lines and ATS courtesy of my guilty pleasure reading the Post……..home team in caps – and honestly, if you don’t know that by now, you’re not a friend of mine and I hope you enjoy watching your Lifetime movies this weekend.

Giants (+3) over COWBOYS
Giants have the defense to slow down and pressure Romo into trouble. I think the emotion of the new stadium wears off after the first quarter and the Giants are more talented on the lines, which wins the game. Cowboys open the new stadium the same way they left the old one, with a loss.

Patriots (-3.5) over JETS
The Rex Ryan defense is good and going to pressure Brady, and as good as the Patriots have been overall, their record against the spread isn’t that impressive (9-7 last year, & 10-6 against the spread in 2007 when they went 16-0). So all the emotion and sentiment is that the Patriots struggled and the Jets were good, so the Jets are the pick…….NO. A rookie QB against Belichick will not go well. I think the Jets defense will keep it close, but I’ll take Brady & Belichick over a rookie QB.

Raiders (+3) over CHIEFS
Oakland’s defense was better than expected and the addition of Seymour is a large part of that. Chiefs offense was worse than the numbers showed (2 special teams/defensive TDs) against Baltimore, so people are forgetting the fact that Brodie Croyle is likely going to start at QB. Expect a big day from McFadden and in the worst game of the week, the Raiders prevail.

Texans (+6.5) over TITANS
This was a tough pick as the Titans held their own in Pittsburgh, and the Texans threw up on themselves at home against the Jets. So here’s where I’m hoping my “don’t overreact to one week” theory comes into play. The Texans have solid passing weapons, which is what Pittsburgh used to beat the Titans. Though I’m nervous due to a great quote from my friend Dirty Johnny: “You can paint a turd gold, but it’s still a turd.” I’m riding the with the Texans.

PACKERS (-9) over Bengals
That’s too many points to give for a team with serious struggles on the offensive line – Alan Barbre might need to wear a neck brace to protect against whiplash from watching DEs fly past him – but I’m a homer and think that Rodgers will be more accurate in week 2. He had wide open deep opportunities in week 1 and missed them. The Bengals should have beaten the Broncos last week except for the craziest play I’ve ever seen, but they’re the Bengals. And I have to admit, I genuinely like Ochocinco and think he’s going to have a good year. As much of a clown as he is, I think he puts forth full effort on the field and is just crazy, not as detrimental to the team as TO or the other divas.

Vikings (-10) over LIONS
10 is a lot of points to give on the road, but do I think the Lions can win it? If Stafford can be even slightly better than last week, and the Lions can pressure ODF (Old Diva Favre) into some mistakes, they can stay within striking distance…….ahhh, who am I kidding? No they can’t. Vikings are the pick and AD may put up a deuce in TDs and hundreds of yards, making Jim Schwartz deuce in his pants in his home opener.

Saints (pk) over EAGLES
I still believe the Iggles are overrated despite their smackdown of the hapless Panthers. The Saints offense is like Jeter, John Mayer, or Justin Timberlake – scoring at will on anyone at any time. Granted, you can’t take much from the Lions game, but they have weapons and without McNabb, the Eagles will not be able to score enough. Kevin Kolb? Ouch. Garcia? Not enough.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Panthers (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
Probably the easiest game of the week to pick. Atlanta forced Miami to turn the ball over and now Delhomme comes to town. Well, just watch the great clip of Steve Smith talking to him last week. If I can figure out how to post a video, I’ll put it here – looks like it was removed from YouTube. He says basically what everyone is thinking, while on the sidelines during the game last week – to paraphrase “As a QB, I don’t like you, but as a person, I love you.” That’s awesome.

REDSKINS (-10) over Rams
Who cares? This game stinks, much like the Rams. They may not score again this week – sorry Steven Jackson owners.

JAGUARS (-3) over Cardinals
This game has the potential to be a “don’t overreact” game based on last week. The Jags hung tough against the Colts and the Cards stunk at home. But the Cards have to go across the country, and they stink when they’ve done that in the past. It scares me that the Jags were 4-12 ATS last year, and I don’t think they’re very good, but in front of both Jags fans, I’ll take the home team.

Seahawks (+1.5) over 49ers
I think the Hawks are going to be pretty good this year, and the 49ers are likely riding high after last week’s impressive win. Not a lot of logic here, just a hunch that the Niners lose a close one.

BILLS (-5) over Buccaneers
Bills offense showed they can score points last week without TO. I expect him to get to the house twice this week (Buccs gave up a billion long TDs last week to the Cowboys). Everyone loves the Cadillac comeback story, but they don’t have enough to win on the road.

Browns (+3) over BRONCOS
I really dislike Mangini, but the Broncos had no business winning last week. The Browns at least put some points up against Minnesota (granted it included a special teams TD). So maybe the ghost of Braylen Edwards will finally show up. Broncos among the worst in the league at 5-10-1 ATS last year and 5-11 the year before.

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Ravens
Toughest pick of the week. Ravens defense is good, but Chargers realize that LT isn’t the most important offensive weapon. Sproles & Gates are the key and should be enough. Chargers defense is light years ahead of the Chiefs defense, so if the Ravens pass as much as they did last week, they’re going to find a different result.

Steelers (-3) over BEARS
It’s easy to say that Cutler will realize that his team colors are Blue & Orange this week, and they’ll rebound against a defense without the Tazmanian Devil. But Dennis Green could say it best “he is who we thought he was” – he’s a .500 QB (17-20 career), with a big arm, no conscious, a lack of maturity, boatloads of swagger, and never posted a QB rating over 88.5 (in his rookie year and it’s declined ever since). So are we really surprised that when paired with no WRs that he’s struggling? Tack on another 2 picks this week.

Colts (-3) over DOLPHINS
Dolphins continue to prove that last year was a fluke. Manning will simply shift his attention to the young receivers, Dallas Clark and Addai out of the backfield (let’s hope for the sake of my fantasy team). Dolphins are much like the Great Hildo – no matter how many tricks they pull, they aren’t going to score. Maybe they should pay for a free agent?

Couple quick hits before the weekend:
- It’s deceptively cool in the city today
- I love the Scott Van Pelt commercial where he wants to wear a snuggie on the air
- Jorge Posada is a chump
- The Red Sox stole that game Wednesday night - twice
- Where the heck did summer go?

The smell of the hotdog street vendor is wafting into the apartment, so it must be time for lunch. Have a good one, tools. And go Bucky – if they don’t beat a school named after the sounds a dog makes (Wofford) by at least 30………..

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