Breaking Down the Tourney Prospects (part 1)

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Now that the Oscar’s are out of the way, it is time to lock our focus in on the NCAA Tournament. If you want to read about what teams are on the bubble, seedings, and in-depth stat analysis, head over to Luke Winn (Badger alum) or Seth Davis of SI.com, or Joe Lunardi or Andy Katz (a Badger alum!) from ESPN. What you’ll get here is which team has an Erika Christensen front court, a Kim Kardashian backcourt and Lt. Aldo Raine (Inglorious Basterds) leadship combined with some real basketball knowledge. That is basically The Sports Addict all wrapped up in one paragraph.

Before we dig into the hoops stuff, a quick story……..I was walking through Brooklyn on Saturday afternoon, and walked past a few barber shops. In the window of both places was a sign full of different haircuts, each with a number below the picture (similar to the picture on the right). Is this how lazy and unoriginal we have become in this country? We can’t even explain to our barber how we want our hair cut so we have to order our haircut like we’re ordering Chinese food? Yeah, I could really go for the #12 today – oh, you mean you want the beef & brocolli haircut? Or this time do you want the #32 – Kung Pow Chicken ‘do? And what happens when you order a #17 – Chong Qing Spicy Beef haircut and the barber tells you that your hair isn’t long enough?

Time to break down the top 25 teams based purely on their upside potential in the tournament next week. I will break down the teams and determine why they will advance deep in the tourney, why they won’t, and make a way-too-early prediction how far they can go. Obviously a tremendous amount of a team’s success in the tournament depends upon the brackets and matchups, but this will get us started. Overall, there is not that dominant team this year, and there is a deep list of teams that probably goes 15 deep that could win the championship, but the drop off is pretty severe in talent once you get past 30, which is why the bubble is full of below average teams like Arizona State, Washington, and UConn.

1. Kansas Jayhawks
Why They Will: They are the Bar Rafaeli in that they have the full package of talent, depth, and experience – a solid frontcourt and a dominant backcourt. They also qualify under the “Fat Point Guard” rule with Sheron Collins, which has led Mateen Cleaves, Sherman Douglas and Khalid Al-Amin to the Final Four.

Why They Won’t: Bill Self. Yes, he finally won a title a few years ago, but he still does not have a strong record in the NCAA tournament. The other reason they could falter is that they do not play the lock-down defense that is typical of national championships.

Bottom Line: They have the ability to win it all and should make it to the sweet 16 without breaking a sweat, but they could lose once they’re there.

2. Kentucky Wildcats
Why They Will: They are Miley Cyrus, young, talented and kind of annoying. They also have an overexposed leaders (Billy Ray Cyrus & John Calipari), but you can’t deny the fact that they have a dedicated fan base and they have star talent with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

Why They Won’t: Their youth is their blessing and their curse. Can they keep their focus and their poise and not be rattled? John Wall is not Derrick Rose, who played like a senior during his run to the Finals with Memphis.

Bottom Line: See Kansas – they have the talent to win the title, and should not have issues before the sweet 16 where it might get closer. Still likely to at least make the elite eight.


3. Syracuse Orange
Why They Will: The Jim Boeheim zone defense is dangerous in the post season when they play teams that are not used to seeing anything other than man-to-man. In addition, they are a true team, not a collection of stars. Kind of like Rachel McAdams – no stand out quality, but solid all around game that stacks up against anyone.

Why They Won’t: They might match up with Louisville at some point, and Louisville is responsible for 2 of the Orange’s 3 losses this season. Can another team take that template and make it work for them? They will need an athletic big man like Louisville’s Samardo Samuel, and strong guard play like Jerry Smith & Edgar Sosa (or the backup guard that dropped 22 in the second half when Smith got hurt).

Bottom Line: A serious contender for the final four, but they could also be the first top seed eliminated by a hot shooting #8/#9 seed in the second round.

4. Duke Blue Devils
Why They Will: Like Anna Kendrick, they appear to be smart, reserved, and well-managed/coached. Unfortunately, that got Kendrick a nomination, but she couldn’t compete with the title contenders. Duke has an experienced team with a coach that is not a stranger to the big game.

Why They Won’t: They are not physical, and not athletic enough to play with the top teams. They are 8-4 against the RPI top 50, but their best win away from home was against Clemson.

Bottom Line: Duke will be passed for the final top seed, and they could be in danger as early as the second round.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why The Will: They have the best player in the country in Evan Turner, and he is surrounded with the key factors that can come together for a deep tournament run including a shooter in Jon Diebler, tough defense and second and third scoring options in David Lighty and William Bufford. They are the Victoria’s Secret runway show, with Evan Turner starring as Marisa Miller, and he’s surrounded by quite a bit of talent.

Why They Won’t: They are not deep with Thad Motta typically only going 7 deep in the regular rotation. They could be worn out if they go deep in the Big Ten tourney and then have to grind it out over the two weeks of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a title contender (and were my futures bet a few weeks back), yet they have the potential to get knocked out in the sweet 16 by a deep team that uses full court pressure to wear them out – Louisville? Tennessee?

6. Purdue Boilermakers
Why They Will: They have the ‘win it for Robbie” motivation of playing without their emotional leader, and can rally together. They have a premier scorer who can create his own shots in E’Twaan Moore, an inside presence in JuJuan Johnson and a strong defensive scheme. They are Tara Reid – talented but going under the knife has destroyed their future.

Why They Won’t: Missing their double-double machine is a huge hit to their tournament hopes. In addition, they may not have the outside shooting needed to make a long run.


Bottom Line: They still have the talent to make a deep run, but without Hummel, they will not make the final four. Look for them to flame out in the sweet 16.

7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Why They Will: They have Bob Huggins, so you know they are a tough defensive team, which gives them a chance in the tournament. They also have fought their way through the toughest conference in the country, so they are battle-tested. Yet can you name their leading scorer? Can you name anyone on their team? They have the Erika Christensen strong front court, with forwards as their top three scorers – Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones & Devin Ebanks.

Why They Won’t: A lack of strong guard play is the biggest concern for the Mountaineers. They have the experienced coach, but without a coach on the floor, it’s tough to see them getting all the way through the gauntlet of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a dark-horse candidate to steal the last #1 seed, which could get them to the sweet 16 with ease. West Virginia could be that team that not many people have advancing deep in the tournament because they don’t know anything about them. This could be one way for you to stand out from the crowd – because you know about Erika Christensen and how her frontcourt can get you on a hot streak.

8. New Mexico
Why They Will: Despite their high ranking, they are an underdog because no one knows anything about them other than they are coached by Steve Alford and he called a BYU player an a$$hole during a post game handshake. They can use that slight as motivation, and they have some strong wins against fringe tournament teams like Cal and Texas A&M in addition to sweeping conference foe BYU. They are the Audrina Patridge – they look good on paper, but they may be doing it with smoke and mirrors (or non-factory-installed parts).

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the elite athletes to compete with the fourth or fifth place teams from the Big East, Big Ten or Big 12, which is what the Lobos will face in the second round if they get a #2 seed.

Bottom Line: They are ripe for the second round upset by a hot #7 or #10 team – much like Wisconsin was beat by Moutain West team UNLV a few years back. I like Steve Alford, but he can’t perform miracles.

9. Kansas State Wildcats
Why They Will: Strong guard play with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen. They have the ability to score on many teams and are very athletic, which could lead to a long run in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: I’ve written about it before, but the team runs emotionally high based on the high emotion of their coach Frank Martin. As a result, they bring high energy, but can play out of control at times. That will be the downfall for them in the tournament when the lights are brightest and the pressure kicks up to a level they have not seen. The best comparison for this team: Sarah Silverman – they can be entertaining, but they are legit crazy.


Bottom Line: Look for K-State to flame out before the sweet 16 if they get matched up against a disciplined, well-coached team.

10. Villanova Wildcats
Why They Will: They have a great coach, and strong, veteran guard play. Scottie Reynolds returned to school to get back to the Final Four (and because he won’t be able to cut it in the NBA). They have made it through the obstacle course that is the Big East and are ready for the big stage.

Why They Won’t: They don’t play strong enough defense. Much like Jennifer Aniston, they have all the qualities you are looking for, yet they have no defenses to fend off douchebags from doing whatever they want to them.

Bottom Line: You can’t count them out because they are experienced and have strong leadership. Yet, without the ability to get a defensive stop when needed, they will be dropped in the elite eight.

11. Michigan State Spartans
Why They Will: As much as Tom Izzo cries and whines, the guy can flat out get it done in the tournament. He has the skilled players in Kalen Lucas and Raymar Morgan, and they always play defense. Like Jessica Simpson, they whine too much and have their share of detractors, yet when they are in fighting shape, they can compete with anyone.

Why They Won’t: They are not very athletic and don’t shoot very well from outside the arc. Their matchups will be the key to determining how far they can go in the tournament.

Bottom Line: You can typically pencil them in automatically into the sweet 16 and they have a really good chance to get to the elite eight. If they can somehow get placed in the weak bracket (the committee does a good job, but there are always tougher and weaker brackets) with the last #1 seed (West Virginia?), a weaker #2 seed (New Mexico?) and a struggling #3 seed (Villanova? Pittsburgh?), and an overrated #4 seed (Temple?) then you would have to like Michigan State as a #5 seed.

12. Butler Bulldogs
Why They Will: They won’t.

Why They Won’t: Much like Gonzaga, they have bypassed their role as the mid-major powerhouse that sneaks up on teams that overlook them. They are now a known commodity, which means that teams are prepared for their stingy defense, disciplined plodding offense and ankle-biting guard play. They are just the annoying bug on the windshield of the teams from the major conferences on their way to the next round. Like Rachel Uchitel, their schemes have been exposed for what they are, and they no longer stand out in a crowd.

Bottom Line: Yes, they beat Ohio State (without Evan Turner), but they lost to Georgetown, Clemson and Minnesota. Look for them to be a #4 or #5 seed, and if they get a major conference team in the first round, they are ripe for the picking.

13. Wisconsin Badgers
Why They Will: The Badgers have the strong guard play, hot shooting, stingy defense and an inside presence that can lead to a long tournament run. They also have a great coach capable of developing game plans to stop anyone – and he looks like the Badger mascot when he gets angry. They have played without their best player, Jon Leuer, for a significant portion of the season, so the team is used to having guys step up and make plays. The Reese Witherspoon of the field – they have the classic beauty and talent to be the star of the dance.

Why They Won’t: They are not very deep, and they still have long scoring droughts despite the abilities of Trevon Hughes, Jordan Taylor and Leuer to create their own shots. Reese looked good with Ryan Phillippe and then with Jake Gyleanhaal, and yet both of those relationships didn’t go the distance.

Bottom Line: They have all the tools to make it to the Final Four, but much will be determined by their bracket and matchups. If they end up a #4 seed in the same bracket as a Kansas or Kentucky, the sweet 16 could be the ceiling for this squad.

Well, this has turned into a really long post, and your boss is probably wondering why you’ve been chuckling at your computer when you were supposed to be working on that spreadsheet to determine how to increase the profitability of this new hot product/deal that he’s bringing to the market even though you know it’s going to be a colossal failure. So check back tomorrow for the second half of the top 25 breakdown.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the second half....

(and yes, I had a brain fart and said Tom Crean when I meant Tom Izzo, the coach of Michigan State. My bad. They're both whiney bitches named Tom - Izzo just has been tremendously more successful.)

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Hockey was the big winner yesterday. Canada comes away with the gold, and US goalie Ryan Miller wins the MVP award, and people actually cared about hockey for two weeks. It will be interesting to see if there is any lasting boost for hockey, or if it will disappear from the casual sports fan’s conscious. The announcers put some nice plugs in for the NHL during the gold medal game, reminding fans how many of the players were NHL guys and when the NHL games on NBC would be telecast.

As for the game, it doesn’t get much more dramatic than that. The US scores a goal with less than 30 seconds left in the game to send it to OT, but Sidney Crosby scored about 9 minutes into the extra period to win the gold. About 30 seconds before the game winning goal, I was thinking how quiet Crosby had been. I don’t follow hockey, but he is among the 10 players in the league I could name and I know he is one of the NHL’s biggest stars. Yet he hadn’t scored a point – goal or assist – during the tournament. I don’t even think I completed the thought before he snuck one through Ryan Miller’s five-hole and the Canadian party was on. I guess it’s time for everyone to put on your Canadian tuxedo (see picture) and drink some Molson.

- The Canadian men’s curling team was dominant in winning the gold. I was strangely attracted to curling throughout the Olympics, in much the same way people are attracted to Kristen Stewart. I don’t really understand it, but it’s definitely there. Their bald, veteran skipper, Kevin Martin got most of the headlines, and he was spectacular, but the real difference maker was the younger John Morris. I still don’t know all the strategy involved in curling, but I do know that Morris consistently was able to knock two and three of his opponent’s stones out of scoring range consistently.

- Last Thursday night, the Canadian women’s hockey team won the goal medal and then took some heat for their celebration tactics. They came back out of the locker room with beer, champagne and cigars to celebrate out on the ice, which was seen as classless by many in the media. I don’t see the issue. They worked four years for this accomplishment, so when they get it, you expect them to clap their hands and smile? Let’s be a little realistic. You earned it girls, so drink from the bottle of champagne, shotgun those LaBatte Blues and light up the victory cigars!

- The movie Shutter Island was incredible. Saw it this weekend and I don’t want to give anything away, but one sign of a great movie is when you’re walking out and you think you know what happened, but someone else could very easily argue that something else happened and there are clues for both sides. Martin Scorsese put out another gem combining with Leonardo DiCaprio in the psychological thriller that has been tops at the box office the past two weeks. Scorsese has been cranking out great movies for decades – The Departed, Gangs of New York, Casino, Cape Fear, Goodfellas, The Color of Money, Raging Bull, Taxi Driver and others I’m sure I’m missing – and has an uncanny ability to use music and silence to create an intense and dramatic scene. And as much as everyone wants to hate DeCaprio, the guy is pretty much the king of the Hollywood world right now. Who knew that the kid that started as the extra adopted kid in Growing Pains would become among the top movie stars in the world and be dating Bar Rafaeli. Yes, he wins. (and if you really thought I was going to put a picture of DiCaprio up because of the movie......then you haven't been reading this blog for very long)

HATE

- Marquette won another close game this weekend, and has now won 6 games by less than 5 points. Yet, watching the end of the game, it’s obvious that while Buzz Williams has some recruiting ability, his game management is suspect at best. In their victories over UConn, St. John’s and now Seton Hall, the Golden Eagles have had the ball with a chance for a game-winning shot. Williams did not draw up a play in any of the situations, and yet, his players have bailed him out by making some big shots to win the games. Watching the way both Marquette and Seton Hall played the end of the game, neither team deserves a spot in the NCAA tournament.

- Duke has quietly positioned itself to get a #1 seed when the tournament brackets come out in two weeks. They have cruised through the abnormally weak ACC conference this year, and were sitting at #5 in the country before the top 3 teams lost this weekend. With Purdue going to battle without Robbie Hummel, they are not the same team that was ranked #3 going into the weekend. That leaves the Blue Devils with the ability to roll through the ACC tourney and into one of the coveted top seeds. They are the girl that’s been at the bar all night that you didn’t even notice because of all the other flash around the bar, yet as the place starts to clear out and the music quiets down, she’s all that’s left, so you have to play the cards you’re dealt. That’s probably also how girls from Duke feel if they ever venture over to a UNC bar – they don’t have a chance until after 2:15 am.

- The NFL Combine is such an overhyped and overrated part of the draft process. ESPN just led the news out of the combine with the headline that Tim Tebow set the record for QB vertical leap. Can anyone give me any way that a vertical leap even slightly relates to playing quarterback in the NFL? Who cares how high he can jump if he still has that loopy, slow delivery that Urban Meyer was too arrogant and selfish to fix? He’s not going to be jumping, he’s going to be flat on his back in the NFL. It’s the equivalent of signing a pitcher that can't pitch to a long-term contract because he had one successful post season stretch and four years later having your highest paid player fighting for a chance to be the fifth starter. Ladies & Gentlemen........Jeff Suppan!!!

- The Closing ceremonies were exceptionally strange. I wasn’t fully focused on them…..but here’s a quick recap of the things I saw……a Canadian version of a mosh pit with everyone wearing white and holding snow boards jumping up and down……..naughty women mounties………a Canadian Macy’s Parade complete with inflatable mounties, moose and beavers………and William Schatner. I’m really not sure what to say about it.

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate Conference Champs

LOVE

- Once a gunslinger, always a gunslinger. Brett Favre takes away the Vikings chance to win it in regulation with a terrible decision to throw it back across his body into the middle of the field, resulting in a pick. In many senses, if this is his last game, it’s very fitting. He took an absolute beating because his line could not protect him, yet he displayed his legendary toughness by limping around, keeping his team close, yet ultimately made the bad interception. And he didn’t get any help from his buttery-fingered teammates – they should have been up 14 at that point without the 4 turnovers before the final pick. Oh, and can we please blame Brad Childress for the “12 men in the huddle” penalty? We just need to make sure he takes some blame.

Was it strange that a running back had over 100 yards and 3 touchdowns, yet he didn’t play a great game and the coach had to be considering benching him at multiple points during the game because of his fumbling? Peterson will never be one of the greats if he can’t stop putting it on the carpet.

Interesting side note: Favre’s last pass as a Packer was the ill-fated interception in OT of the 2007 NFC Championship against the Giants. His last pass as a Jet was an interception against the Dolphins (not counting the double hook and ladder to end the game where he was called for an illegal forward pitch). Could this be his last pass as a Viking? Another interception, in another NFC Championship game. He is consistent if nothing else.

- Peyton Manning is the best quarterback I have ever seen. He made adjustments to the Rex Ryan blitzing scheme, and ate it up. He is the most intelligent, accurate and impressive player in the game today. He didn’t go after Darrelle Revis extensively, but he wasn’t afraid to throw in his direction – including the play where Reggie Wayne shook him after the catch and left him grasping at air. The play that was the epitome of Manning’s game control was a quick-snap running play on 3rd and 5 in the 3rd quarter when the Jets still had 12 men on the field. Manning recognized it and quickly got his team a free first down. He a master of the game the same way Bar Rafaeli is the master of a bikini.

Mark Sanchez also played a tremendous game, and the moment was not too big for him. His only turnover was at the end in desperation time, and he was accurate with the ball, made smart decisions and made up for a running game that was stumped by the Colts defense.

- Not to dislocate my shoulder patting myself on the back……..but there was a certain someone suggesting you make easy money by betting on Pierre Garcon to have the most receiving yards in either game. That’s a nice little 10-1 payday from Uncle Trent. That is…….if gambling were legal.

And I also mentioned last week that I thought the Colts running game was underappreciated…..and Joseph Addai had 3 less yards than Thomas Jones & Shonn Greene combined. The Colts outrushed the Jets, which didn’t seem likely before the game.

- Aside from the football this weekend, there was an amazing ending to the Florida-South Carolina game on Saturday night. South Carolina’s Devon Downey was a monster in the game, including the go-ahead bucket by taking on all 5 Gator defenders. Fast forward to the 7:10 mark of the video. Unfortunately the video cuts off right before the replay where you can read the lips of the South Carolina coach going “No, please don’t go in……Oh no.”

HATE

- As much as the Colts won the game, the Jets did not play well overall. There were way too many penalties, including 3 that gave the Colts first downs. Their defense was not able to intimidate the Colts offense and the Jets offensive line was dominated by the undersized Colts line. While they knew they were underdogs and it was a successful season to get as far as they did, it has to be disheartening to not really come up big in the biggest game.

- I mentioned it above, but it needs to be mentioned in the hate section: The Vikings played awful, with 5 turnovers, countless pentalties and a porous offensive line. Favre took an absolute beating during the game, and yet he was never actually sacked. Despite his bad final interception, Favre was the only reason the Vikings were still in a position to have a shot at winning.

- Speaking of hitting the quarterback, what is the rule about hitting a quarterback after a hand-off? In the Jets game, Sanchez was hit after handing off and no penalty was called. Rex Ryan was more livid than when they ran out of wings at the all-you-can-eat postgame meal. Then in the Vikings game, the Saints were flagged for hitting Favre after he handed off. Why is that a penalty? How does the defender know that it’s not a play action fake? Why can the quarterback block, but the defense can’t hit him? Just seems like a strange rule to me where the league treats the quarterbacks more gentle than if they were playing in the lingerie football league.

- While I’m a fan of instant replay to make sure the correct calls are made, the replays during overtime of the Saints-Vikings game really grinded the game to a halt. Reviewing the spot, then running a dive play and reviewing the spot again just took all the emotion and momentum out of the game. No real solution for it, just a general annoyance.

- When will Fox realize that Joe Buck is not their best option for their #1 announcing team. Buck thinks he is bigger than the game or the moment and always tries to overemphasize the moment with his dramatic comments. We know your Dad was a good announcer, Joe, and you sir are no Jack Buck. You have less class than Jack Buck’s cufflink. Joe is a smug little wienie who has no business calling an important game – the play-by-play guy is supposed to tell us what’s happening and leave the analysis and opinions to the color guy who actually knows what he’s talking about. Troy Aikman knows what he’s talking about, so please Joe, just shut up and let him give us the accurate information. And Buck needs knee pads more than Paris Hilton for the way he talks about Favre.

- Wisconsin hoops falling behind by 15 to Penn State in the second half. Yes, they came back to win, just like they did against Michigan, yet it is getting concerning how they keep falling behind these bottom tier teams in the conference – at the Kohl Center. It’s just a matter of time before it burns them, and they won’t be able to come back against the better teams like Michigan State, Purdue or Ohio State (whom they lost to in Columbus).