Degenerate Friday - Week 5

Have you ever had that moment when you get too lazy to crop dust, so you just let one go in your office? Without fail, the office “talent” always stops by within 30 seconds to show off her new engagement ring to your complete horror and embarrassment. That’s the moment when you realize you stink. Both figuratively and literally. Well, that has to be how Ted Thompson is feeling right now in Green Bay. He stayed in his office instead of making a move for Marshawn Lynch, and then the Vikings stop by to show off their shiny new toy, Randy Moss. Now Teddy is left in his office smelling his own turds.

Last week was a solid 8-6 week, putting me at 32-26-4 on the year. Not spectacular, but good enough to feel better than Ted Thompson.

The standard disclosures apply: for recreational purposes only, lines from the NY Post, home teams in CAPS, etc.

This week the games are broken down by the different stops in Randy Moss’s career.

The Vikings (Part I) Phase

Randy’s first stint in Minnesota was full of ups and downs – setting rookie records for touchdowns and gently tapping a traffic cop with his car. These are the games that have potential to be good games despite having any real power teams involved. And obviously with Randy’s fake moon during this part of his career, there is no question the 49ers game has to be in this category because of Mike Singletary’s allegedly de-pantsing himself at halftime of a game last year.

BROWNS (+3) over Falcons

The Falcons are 3-1, yet without a Garrett Hartley shank and a Nate Clements brain fart, they’d be 1-3. They have not shown the offensive fire power that was expected of them. The Browns have battled to stay close in all of their games, and they may have found a stolen gem in Peyton Hillis. Mangini fights off the sharks for a second straight week.

RAIDERS (+6) over Chargers

San Diego has feasted on bad teams thus far, and they get another one in the Raiders. Yet something tells me the Raiders will finally show some progress, even with Michael Bush filling in for McFadden. Zach Miller should be able to run wild in the secondary against the Chargers linebackers.

49ERS (-3.5) over Eagles

Is Vegas disrespecting Kevin Kolb that much by making him and the Eagles a 3.5 point dog against the winless Niners? Probably. Is it deserved? Yup. Kolb has looked awful – timid, noodle-armed and overmatched in his limited playing time. Time for SF to get off the winless train at home against the punchless Iggles.

The Oakland Raiders Phase

Disinterested, lazy, distraction, non-factor, irrelevant. All words that can describe Moss’s time in Oakland and these games. Moss is second all-time in receiving TD’s (behind Jerry Rice) and imagine the stats he could have put up if he actually made an attempt to play hard or had an adequate quarterback during the years he wasted in Oakland.

Jaguars (-1) over BILLS

This might be the Bills best chance to avoid coming close to 0-16. Did I mention Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback? It could be a classic letdown game for the Jags after their big win against the Colts, but they still have more playmakers with hyphens than the Bills.

PANTHERS (+2.5) over Bears

Is it really a question whether or not to bet against Todd Collins? The last time he started a game was in 2007, and he was old and washed up then. The Bears have won with smoke and mirrors thus far this season and the wind blew away the smoke and the mirror is one of those “fat mirrors” from the circus.

LIONS (-3) over Rams

The Rams are leading their division and still underdogs against a winless team. Such is life in the NFC West. Lions have been competitive all season and finally break through with a win.

Saints (-6.5) over CARDINALS

The Saints are a lifetime 87-5-1 when playing against a team that cut a former first round quarterback before the season, benched their awful backup, and are starting an undrafted rookie in his first start. That seems like a made up stat that I don’t want to go against.

The Patriots Phase

The resurgent Randy reappears and starts setting records again. Suddenly the locker room cancer that got run out of Minnesota and mercifully traded from Oakland was a great teammate, consummate professional and a key cog on successful teams. Yet that dream didn’t last.

TEXANS (-3) over Giants

Which Giants team will show up? The one that hammered the Panthers? The one that got hammered by the Colts? Or the suffocating defense that destroyed Jay Cutler? Will it be the Texans team that tamed the Colts? Or the team that had to scramble to come from behind against the Redskins? Or the team that got ripped up by the Cowboys? I guess I’ll side with the home team.

Chiefs (+8) over COLTS

Am I really going against a ticked off Colts team at home against a potentially fraudulent 3-0 young Chiefs team? Yup, 8 points is too much for a team that can’t stop the run against a team that has a potent running attack with Thomas Jones & Jamaal Charles.

Vikings (+4) over JETS

While there is no doubt that Tom Brady throws a better deep ball than Brett Favre, and Moss is not as adept at the jump ball as he once was, Randy will still make a difference and be an outlet for the wiener-sexting old gunslinger. There is the possibility that Moss catches 2 TDs and Favre throws 4 interceptions in every game. The inspiration of thir new acquisition will be enough to overcome the loud-talking Jets on Monday night.

The Minnesota (Part II) Phase

This is either going to be boom or bust. It’s either going to be like Marisa Miller or it’s going to be current Madonna. There will be no in between. These games could be gems like the Halladay no-hitter or the Lincecum 2-hitter (which by the way, I might argue that Big Time Timmy Jam’s game was more impressive as it came in a 1-0 game and he had 14 K’s – a MLB postseason debut record) Or these games could end up a complete disaster, like a James Shields start for the Rays.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Buccaneers

This seems like quite a bit of points to lay against a 2-1 team coming off a bye week by a team that just lost to the Browns. Yet the Bengals play much better at home and the 2-1 team is the Bucs. Case closed.

Packers (-2.5) over REDSKINS

This is my least confident pick of the week. The Packers lost another safety and linebacker Nick Barnett to season-ending injuries this week. Add that to the emotional let down of not picking up a key running back and knowing they have the least intimidating running game in the league. Yet the Redskins do not have the playmakers to take advantage of the huge holes that will be in the Dom Capers defense.

RAVENS (-7) over Broncos

Baltimore’s offense seems to be finding a little bit of rhythm and it will be much easier against the Broncos than it was against the Steelers. The Broncos definitely won the Cutler-Orton trade, but they won’t win in Baltimore.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Titans

Tennessee continues to struggle establishing the run and they don’t have a legit passing game to fall back on. As a result, the Cowboys can get back to .500 and right back in the hunt to win their extremely average division. After the game, Jeff Fisher might put on a Tony Romo jersey, since if the Cowboys falter this year, Wade Phillips will be fired and Jeff Fisher will be the top target for Jerry Jones.

Breaking Down the Tourney Prospects (part 1)

UPDATE: Join the 2010 Sports Addict Bracket Challenge! It's free to join. Click here for details.

Now that the Oscar’s are out of the way, it is time to lock our focus in on the NCAA Tournament. If you want to read about what teams are on the bubble, seedings, and in-depth stat analysis, head over to Luke Winn (Badger alum) or Seth Davis of SI.com, or Joe Lunardi or Andy Katz (a Badger alum!) from ESPN. What you’ll get here is which team has an Erika Christensen front court, a Kim Kardashian backcourt and Lt. Aldo Raine (Inglorious Basterds) leadship combined with some real basketball knowledge. That is basically The Sports Addict all wrapped up in one paragraph.

Before we dig into the hoops stuff, a quick story……..I was walking through Brooklyn on Saturday afternoon, and walked past a few barber shops. In the window of both places was a sign full of different haircuts, each with a number below the picture (similar to the picture on the right). Is this how lazy and unoriginal we have become in this country? We can’t even explain to our barber how we want our hair cut so we have to order our haircut like we’re ordering Chinese food? Yeah, I could really go for the #12 today – oh, you mean you want the beef & brocolli haircut? Or this time do you want the #32 – Kung Pow Chicken ‘do? And what happens when you order a #17 – Chong Qing Spicy Beef haircut and the barber tells you that your hair isn’t long enough?

Time to break down the top 25 teams based purely on their upside potential in the tournament next week. I will break down the teams and determine why they will advance deep in the tourney, why they won’t, and make a way-too-early prediction how far they can go. Obviously a tremendous amount of a team’s success in the tournament depends upon the brackets and matchups, but this will get us started. Overall, there is not that dominant team this year, and there is a deep list of teams that probably goes 15 deep that could win the championship, but the drop off is pretty severe in talent once you get past 30, which is why the bubble is full of below average teams like Arizona State, Washington, and UConn.

1. Kansas Jayhawks
Why They Will: They are the Bar Rafaeli in that they have the full package of talent, depth, and experience – a solid frontcourt and a dominant backcourt. They also qualify under the “Fat Point Guard” rule with Sheron Collins, which has led Mateen Cleaves, Sherman Douglas and Khalid Al-Amin to the Final Four.

Why They Won’t: Bill Self. Yes, he finally won a title a few years ago, but he still does not have a strong record in the NCAA tournament. The other reason they could falter is that they do not play the lock-down defense that is typical of national championships.

Bottom Line: They have the ability to win it all and should make it to the sweet 16 without breaking a sweat, but they could lose once they’re there.

2. Kentucky Wildcats
Why They Will: They are Miley Cyrus, young, talented and kind of annoying. They also have an overexposed leaders (Billy Ray Cyrus & John Calipari), but you can’t deny the fact that they have a dedicated fan base and they have star talent with John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson.

Why They Won’t: Their youth is their blessing and their curse. Can they keep their focus and their poise and not be rattled? John Wall is not Derrick Rose, who played like a senior during his run to the Finals with Memphis.

Bottom Line: See Kansas – they have the talent to win the title, and should not have issues before the sweet 16 where it might get closer. Still likely to at least make the elite eight.


3. Syracuse Orange
Why They Will: The Jim Boeheim zone defense is dangerous in the post season when they play teams that are not used to seeing anything other than man-to-man. In addition, they are a true team, not a collection of stars. Kind of like Rachel McAdams – no stand out quality, but solid all around game that stacks up against anyone.

Why They Won’t: They might match up with Louisville at some point, and Louisville is responsible for 2 of the Orange’s 3 losses this season. Can another team take that template and make it work for them? They will need an athletic big man like Louisville’s Samardo Samuel, and strong guard play like Jerry Smith & Edgar Sosa (or the backup guard that dropped 22 in the second half when Smith got hurt).

Bottom Line: A serious contender for the final four, but they could also be the first top seed eliminated by a hot shooting #8/#9 seed in the second round.

4. Duke Blue Devils
Why They Will: Like Anna Kendrick, they appear to be smart, reserved, and well-managed/coached. Unfortunately, that got Kendrick a nomination, but she couldn’t compete with the title contenders. Duke has an experienced team with a coach that is not a stranger to the big game.

Why They Won’t: They are not physical, and not athletic enough to play with the top teams. They are 8-4 against the RPI top 50, but their best win away from home was against Clemson.

Bottom Line: Duke will be passed for the final top seed, and they could be in danger as early as the second round.

5. Ohio State Buckeyes
Why The Will: They have the best player in the country in Evan Turner, and he is surrounded with the key factors that can come together for a deep tournament run including a shooter in Jon Diebler, tough defense and second and third scoring options in David Lighty and William Bufford. They are the Victoria’s Secret runway show, with Evan Turner starring as Marisa Miller, and he’s surrounded by quite a bit of talent.

Why They Won’t: They are not deep with Thad Motta typically only going 7 deep in the regular rotation. They could be worn out if they go deep in the Big Ten tourney and then have to grind it out over the two weeks of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a title contender (and were my futures bet a few weeks back), yet they have the potential to get knocked out in the sweet 16 by a deep team that uses full court pressure to wear them out – Louisville? Tennessee?

6. Purdue Boilermakers
Why They Will: They have the ‘win it for Robbie” motivation of playing without their emotional leader, and can rally together. They have a premier scorer who can create his own shots in E’Twaan Moore, an inside presence in JuJuan Johnson and a strong defensive scheme. They are Tara Reid – talented but going under the knife has destroyed their future.

Why They Won’t: Missing their double-double machine is a huge hit to their tournament hopes. In addition, they may not have the outside shooting needed to make a long run.


Bottom Line: They still have the talent to make a deep run, but without Hummel, they will not make the final four. Look for them to flame out in the sweet 16.

7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Why They Will: They have Bob Huggins, so you know they are a tough defensive team, which gives them a chance in the tournament. They also have fought their way through the toughest conference in the country, so they are battle-tested. Yet can you name their leading scorer? Can you name anyone on their team? They have the Erika Christensen strong front court, with forwards as their top three scorers – Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones & Devin Ebanks.

Why They Won’t: A lack of strong guard play is the biggest concern for the Mountaineers. They have the experienced coach, but without a coach on the floor, it’s tough to see them getting all the way through the gauntlet of the tournament.

Bottom Line: They are a dark-horse candidate to steal the last #1 seed, which could get them to the sweet 16 with ease. West Virginia could be that team that not many people have advancing deep in the tournament because they don’t know anything about them. This could be one way for you to stand out from the crowd – because you know about Erika Christensen and how her frontcourt can get you on a hot streak.

8. New Mexico
Why They Will: Despite their high ranking, they are an underdog because no one knows anything about them other than they are coached by Steve Alford and he called a BYU player an a$$hole during a post game handshake. They can use that slight as motivation, and they have some strong wins against fringe tournament teams like Cal and Texas A&M in addition to sweeping conference foe BYU. They are the Audrina Patridge – they look good on paper, but they may be doing it with smoke and mirrors (or non-factory-installed parts).

Why They Won’t: They don’t have the elite athletes to compete with the fourth or fifth place teams from the Big East, Big Ten or Big 12, which is what the Lobos will face in the second round if they get a #2 seed.

Bottom Line: They are ripe for the second round upset by a hot #7 or #10 team – much like Wisconsin was beat by Moutain West team UNLV a few years back. I like Steve Alford, but he can’t perform miracles.

9. Kansas State Wildcats
Why They Will: Strong guard play with Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen. They have the ability to score on many teams and are very athletic, which could lead to a long run in the tournament.

Why They Won’t: I’ve written about it before, but the team runs emotionally high based on the high emotion of their coach Frank Martin. As a result, they bring high energy, but can play out of control at times. That will be the downfall for them in the tournament when the lights are brightest and the pressure kicks up to a level they have not seen. The best comparison for this team: Sarah Silverman – they can be entertaining, but they are legit crazy.


Bottom Line: Look for K-State to flame out before the sweet 16 if they get matched up against a disciplined, well-coached team.

10. Villanova Wildcats
Why They Will: They have a great coach, and strong, veteran guard play. Scottie Reynolds returned to school to get back to the Final Four (and because he won’t be able to cut it in the NBA). They have made it through the obstacle course that is the Big East and are ready for the big stage.

Why They Won’t: They don’t play strong enough defense. Much like Jennifer Aniston, they have all the qualities you are looking for, yet they have no defenses to fend off douchebags from doing whatever they want to them.

Bottom Line: You can’t count them out because they are experienced and have strong leadership. Yet, without the ability to get a defensive stop when needed, they will be dropped in the elite eight.

11. Michigan State Spartans
Why They Will: As much as Tom Izzo cries and whines, the guy can flat out get it done in the tournament. He has the skilled players in Kalen Lucas and Raymar Morgan, and they always play defense. Like Jessica Simpson, they whine too much and have their share of detractors, yet when they are in fighting shape, they can compete with anyone.

Why They Won’t: They are not very athletic and don’t shoot very well from outside the arc. Their matchups will be the key to determining how far they can go in the tournament.

Bottom Line: You can typically pencil them in automatically into the sweet 16 and they have a really good chance to get to the elite eight. If they can somehow get placed in the weak bracket (the committee does a good job, but there are always tougher and weaker brackets) with the last #1 seed (West Virginia?), a weaker #2 seed (New Mexico?) and a struggling #3 seed (Villanova? Pittsburgh?), and an overrated #4 seed (Temple?) then you would have to like Michigan State as a #5 seed.

12. Butler Bulldogs
Why They Will: They won’t.

Why They Won’t: Much like Gonzaga, they have bypassed their role as the mid-major powerhouse that sneaks up on teams that overlook them. They are now a known commodity, which means that teams are prepared for their stingy defense, disciplined plodding offense and ankle-biting guard play. They are just the annoying bug on the windshield of the teams from the major conferences on their way to the next round. Like Rachel Uchitel, their schemes have been exposed for what they are, and they no longer stand out in a crowd.

Bottom Line: Yes, they beat Ohio State (without Evan Turner), but they lost to Georgetown, Clemson and Minnesota. Look for them to be a #4 or #5 seed, and if they get a major conference team in the first round, they are ripe for the picking.

13. Wisconsin Badgers
Why They Will: The Badgers have the strong guard play, hot shooting, stingy defense and an inside presence that can lead to a long tournament run. They also have a great coach capable of developing game plans to stop anyone – and he looks like the Badger mascot when he gets angry. They have played without their best player, Jon Leuer, for a significant portion of the season, so the team is used to having guys step up and make plays. The Reese Witherspoon of the field – they have the classic beauty and talent to be the star of the dance.

Why They Won’t: They are not very deep, and they still have long scoring droughts despite the abilities of Trevon Hughes, Jordan Taylor and Leuer to create their own shots. Reese looked good with Ryan Phillippe and then with Jake Gyleanhaal, and yet both of those relationships didn’t go the distance.

Bottom Line: They have all the tools to make it to the Final Four, but much will be determined by their bracket and matchups. If they end up a #4 seed in the same bracket as a Kansas or Kentucky, the sweet 16 could be the ceiling for this squad.

Well, this has turned into a really long post, and your boss is probably wondering why you’ve been chuckling at your computer when you were supposed to be working on that spreadsheet to determine how to increase the profitability of this new hot product/deal that he’s bringing to the market even though you know it’s going to be a colossal failure. So check back tomorrow for the second half of the top 25 breakdown.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the second half....

(and yes, I had a brain fart and said Tom Crean when I meant Tom Izzo, the coach of Michigan State. My bad. They're both whiney bitches named Tom - Izzo just has been tremendously more successful.)

Make sure to check back on Monday after Selection Sunday - I'll be setting up a free bracket challenge with an opportunity to win swag from your favorite college team.

Overractions!

Chill out people. Seriously. Everyone and everything today is not the best or the worst. And things that happen in one game do not outweight an entire career. It reminds me of this scene from Austin Powers:


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Peyton Manning’s legacy has not been permanently altered because of the Super Bowl. Yes, it does halt the “greatest of all-time” talk, but he’s still among the best to ever play the game. Dan Shaughnessy (the d-bag writer for the Boston Globe with a face for newspaper) decided before the Super Bowl that Manning was better than Tom Brady. Then after the game he completely flopped to the other side. Way to stick to your guns Dan. The only thing that changes after the loss? He’ll never have the perfect Super Bowl record that Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have. He’s still on pace to set every passing record (other than interceptions) that Favre currently holds. He still has more MVP awards than anyone in the history of the game. He has more titles than Marino, Tarkenton and Jim Kelly combined, and the same amount as Favre. And he’s now set himself up to potentially have a great “Eff You” season of redemption next year.

So while the 2004 Peyton showed up for one big game, let’s relax on the “Peyton can’t win the big game” talk. Let’s keep in mind the fact that he inspired two of the riskiest and “on paper dumbest” decisions by opponents during this season with the sole goal of those decisions to keep the ball out of his hands. 3-time Super Bowl Champion Bill Belichick went for that fateful 4th down to play keep away from Manning. And in the biggest game of his life, Sean Payton tried an onside kick (the first ever not during the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl) with the same goal – to keep Manning off the field. Just because Marissa Miller did not make the cover of the swimsuit issue does not mean she’s not bringing the heat.

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Today another nasty snow storm has hit the east coast (and one also hit the midwest yesterday). If you just relied on the news coverage around here for the past 48 hours, you would have thought the world was going to end. The news casters were crying about how epic this storm was going to be and how everything was going to be a disaster. Listen, it’s the second big storm to hit Manhattan this year, and the second storm to hit the DC area in two weeks. It’s February – the heart of winter. Why are we surprised by snow storms? Why does the news act like the city has no idea how to handle the snow? This isn’t California or Texas. It’s the Northeast, the same place where they coined the term “N’oreaster” to describe the storms that come up the coast. So settle down and go grab a shovel. I’m going to go look for jobs in San Diego….or bartending in the Virgin Islands.

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The Milwaukee Brewers are going to build a statue of Proud to Be Yer Bud Selig to put next to Robin Yount and Hank Aaron outside of Miller Park. I have an idea for the pose they should use!! (see photo) I’m not sure there is a more polarizing figure in baseball. On the positive side of the ledger, he brought the Brewers to Milwaukee, kept them there, and brought in the wild card and interleague play. On the negative side, he forced out Faye Vincent, keeps Pete Rose out of the Hall of Fame, and while other sports were implementing salary caps and revenue sharing he allowed teams to spend 6-7 times more than other teams ensuring parity will never be a factor in baseball. And don’t forget the whole charade where he supposedly passed power of the Brewers over to his daughter while he was the “acting” commissioner. And the tremendously poor results by the team during his tenure. Once he finally sold the team to someone with deeper pockets, the team found some success and has a solid young base to compete in the future.

Are we overreacting to build the guy a statue? Especially before we build one for Paul Molitor? Molitor and Yount were the soul of the franchise for almost 15 years before Sal Bando (a Selig guy) ran him out of town to Toronto where he won his title and his World Series MVP. Molitor is in the baseball Hall of Fame as a Brewer and he doesn’t have a statue? Selig might be the Kristin Cavallari of baseball – some people love her, some people hate her, but very few people are on the fence. And I’m guessing Orange County has no intentions of building a statue of Kristin. And the latest rumor has Kristin dating Mark Sanchez now and if he had been able to beat the Colts, there’s a pretty good chance Jersey would have built a statue of the former SC quarterback.

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And finally, one story where it might be right to overreact: the NJ Nets. They are 4-47. Four wins in 51 games. You would think with playing a team on a back-to-back night, or at the end of a roadtrip, or a team that was out to late at the Hustler Club in Manhattan the night before the Nets would be able to do better than winning less than once every ten games. I was part of a high school team that went 2-19, so I feel their pain. And like the Nets, while there was a talent gap between us and every other team, a big part of the problem was the coaching staff (proven by the fact that we had a new coach the following year and went 12-9). The Nets coaching staff has been a disaster, as they fired Lawrence Frank early in the year and made Kiki Vandeweghe the coach, despite him never having a coaching gig prior to the Nets. To bridge the gap, they brought in veteran coach Del Harris to mentor Kiki on the job. That went so well that Harris quit about a month and a half into the gig.

The NBA record for futility was 9 wins by the Philadelphia 76ers in 1972-73. That team actually started 4-47 as well, at which point they fired their coach, Roy Rubin, and replaced him with Kevin Loughery. I guess it was an improvement as Loughery went 5-26. Those five wins came in a 7 game stretch, before losing their final 11 games of the season. That’s a painful record that the Nets are chasing. Get fired up Brooklyn – these are your Nets in 2012!!!

Update - Regular Schedule Returning

Sorry the posts have been so sporadic the past few weeks. With the holiday travels, the cross-country drive, and the incredible amount of brandy I consumed.......I forgot....errr..... didn't have time.

In any event, I'll be back to normal in the near future. Finally got my primary laptop back.....however it was wiped clean of everything I had on it.....files, pictures, music, programs, etc. So I'm starting from scratch to rebuild it all.

We have a ton to cover in the next couple days........Urban Meyer channeling his inner Brett Favre (or does he just hate his family?).......Mike Leach confining the son of Craig "Pony" James in an electrical closet because he had a concussion......NFL Playoffs.........Assistant Coach of the Vikings Brad Childress.........college football bowls...........NFL Coaching Carousel...........college basketball conference seasons starting........thoughts from Cleveland........etc. Soon we'll be back on schedule.

To make it up to you.....here's a picture of Marissa Miller. You're welcome.