Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- You can’t stop the Flying Monkey, Calvin Borel if he gets to the rail by the last turn!! Borel rode Super Saver to the victory on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs this weekend, giving trainer Todd Pletcher his first Derby win. The most unfortunate part of the entire event was that the rain put a damper on the hats and ridiculous outfits that could be shown. The best story was the short awkward guy who won a contest that allowed him to make a $100,000 single bet, and he put that money down on Super Saver, which went off at 8-1 odds, bringing the guy a cool $800,000 for winning the contest. That’s awesome. And since there is no reason to post a picture of Calvin Borel or a horse to start the week, I’ll instead opt for a picture of Diane Lane because she is going to be in an upcoming movie about Secretariat and was at the Derby this weekend.

- Coffee is for Kobe Bryant. (to get the reference, check this clip from Glengary Glen Ross – warning: language from Alec Baldwin) Kobe scored 11 points in the final 4 minutes of the Lakers victory in game 1 over Utah, and totaled 30 points on only 19 shots, making 12 of them. He started the game hot, and then coasted through the middle of the game, allowing Pau Gasol to keep LA in the game until Bryant came in to shut the door. Kobe has a banged up finger on his shooting hand and a gimpy knee and is still the most dangerous player in the league at winning time.

- If you missed the opening game of the Cavaliers-Celtics series on Saturday night, you most likely missed the best game of the series. Was it that great of a game? No, but it’s unlikely that the old Celtics will be able to maintain the level of intensity and effort needed to compete with the Cavs. Two years ago the C’s knocked out LeBron on the shoulders of an unbelievable performance from Paul Pierce, and it is unlikely Pierce can replicate that performance this season. Saturday night was the most rest the Celtics will have before a game in this series and they still couldn’t pull out the win. Look for the Cavs to finish them off in 6 games.

HATE

- Shut Up Brett Favre. Obviously he was feeling unloved during the NFL Draft and Chris Berman must have not met his quota of mentioning Brett and genuflecting at least once per 20 minutes when he is discussing the NFL. So Brett decides that he now needs to come out on his website and mention that he needs ankle surgery if he wants to come back next season. Of course he follows it up with comments that it’s not the worst pain and he could play and you shouldn’t think that the injury would be the reason he would retire. Whatever, dude, we’re so sick of your routine and even your most ardent supporters are starting to get sick of this scripted act every spring. Just go away once and for all you drama queen.

- It was unfortunate that the Milwaukee Bucks laid an egg in game 7 against the Hawks on Sunday as the Hawks advanced to play the Orlando Magic. The Hawks are tremendously more talented than the Bucks, but the Bucks were able to stay in the series without Andrew Bogut because they played hard, played intelligent, and played with poise and determination. The Hawks are very athletic, but extremely undisciplined, sloppy, and Mike Woodson was thoroughly outcoached all series by Scott Skiles. But keep your head’s up Bucks fans, I’ll let my college roommate, the biggest Bucks fan I know and a guy we called Bango tell us why it’s going to be okay for the Bucks in the future:

1) Brandon Jennings: It is unreal to think that he is all of 20 years old. With an NBA season under his belt the sky is the absolute limit. Once he can hit a jumper at a 42-44% clip, he will be impossible to stop.
2) John Hammond-took inherited a garbage heap and made it into a 6th seed. Makes you wonder who was the one making things happen in Detroit during their times of prosperity.
3) Andrew Bogut-breakout year this year both offensively and defensively. Unfortunatelty the Bucks luck turned against them in the fateful game he messed up his arm, but he has turned himself into a second team all-NBA center according to many experts. He was also the brain child of the ingenious and incredibly successful “Squad 6.”
4) Scott Skiles – the guy can flat out coach and gets the most out of his players. Continue surrounding him with talent and we can only get better.

- Is it too soon to give up on the Brewers? I hope not, but I do not have v.ery much faith in this pitching staff to turn it around and get them above .500. Add to that the prolonged offensive slumps like this weekend against the Padres (2 runs in 4 games – one of which was a HR from the pitcher?) and you have the makings of a 75 win season at best.

- Well, no matter what Brian Kelley does to improve Notre Dame football, he can’t undo this video. Ouch. I talked to a good friend and golden dome alumni and his response pretty much summed it all up: “I just lit my diploma on fire. I couldn’t be more embarrassed.”

Degenerate Friday - Kentucky Derby!!

There are plenty of gambling options this weekend in the NBA, but the real crown jewel of degenerates will be the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon. The Derby is kind of like an early 1990’s Mike Tyson fight in that there is a ton of hype and build up and then it is over in the blink of an eye. With all the build up and hype, it’s over in just over two minutesNBC has a 3 hour pre-race show where they will give you stories on all of the jockeys and all of the owners. Does anyone really pay attention to the prerace show? I assume that while people are pounding mint juleps wearing pastel colored outfits at their Derby parties the show may be on in the background. If you’re going to gamble on the race, nothing said during a pre-recorded show about Bob Baffert is going to change your bet. The only thing of value will be the weather report.

The biggest story leading up to the race has been which horses have pulled out of the race due to injury or fatigue and the post positions. The favorite, Lookin At Lucky drew the rail which is not favorable due to the layout of the track and every other horse crowding down to get to the rail. The next favorite, Sidney’s Candy, drew the outside post which is not ideal in a field of 20 horses.

According to weather reports, it looks like an 80% chance of rain for the race, which could push back the post time and the track may be a muddy mess. And you know what Kramer learned about being a Mudder….. …..

Unfortunately, according to this site, all of the horses claim to have had success on “off tracks” or in the slop. So does that really change the bets? Not necessarily. I will be making two picks for the race, the pick I expect to win and then a slightly longer shot that will pay off bigger if it wins. And yes, I’ll be taking credit if either one of them wins.

The Pick: Devil May Care (10-1 odds, Post #11)

The only filly in the field who won her debut race at Saratoga in the slop by 4 ¾ lengths. She has a better starting position than the two favorites, which gives her an advantage. My only hesitation is that she will be wearing blinders for the first time during the race. Not sure how that change will affect her, but my amateur opinion is that she has the speed and power to win if she doesn’t get distracted.

The Value Shot: Super Saver (15-1 odds, Post #4)

Trainer Todd Pletcher believes his horse has been training really well on off tracks and Super Saver also won his maiden race on a sloppy track last fall. Combine that with the strong post position and the unflappable Calvin Borel as the jockey and you have the makings of a winner. Borel has won 2 of the past 3 Derby races, so he can never be underestimated, even if it’s easy to overlook him because he looks and acts like an extra from the Wizard of Oz flying monkey brigade.

So expect me to look something like this on Saturday afternoon……but probably without the coat since it’s supposed to be close to 90 degrees in New York.

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From horse racing to another crazy four-legged animal……..Fear the Deer tonight!! Go Bucks!!