Friday, April 30, 2010

Degenerate Friday - Kentucky Derby!!

There are plenty of gambling options this weekend in the NBA, but the real crown jewel of degenerates will be the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon. The Derby is kind of like an early 1990’s Mike Tyson fight in that there is a ton of hype and build up and then it is over in the blink of an eye. With all the build up and hype, it’s over in just over two minutesNBC has a 3 hour pre-race show where they will give you stories on all of the jockeys and all of the owners. Does anyone really pay attention to the prerace show? I assume that while people are pounding mint juleps wearing pastel colored outfits at their Derby parties the show may be on in the background. If you’re going to gamble on the race, nothing said during a pre-recorded show about Bob Baffert is going to change your bet. The only thing of value will be the weather report.

The biggest story leading up to the race has been which horses have pulled out of the race due to injury or fatigue and the post positions. The favorite, Lookin At Lucky drew the rail which is not favorable due to the layout of the track and every other horse crowding down to get to the rail. The next favorite, Sidney’s Candy, drew the outside post which is not ideal in a field of 20 horses.

According to weather reports, it looks like an 80% chance of rain for the race, which could push back the post time and the track may be a muddy mess. And you know what Kramer learned about being a Mudder….. …..

Unfortunately, according to this site, all of the horses claim to have had success on “off tracks” or in the slop. So does that really change the bets? Not necessarily. I will be making two picks for the race, the pick I expect to win and then a slightly longer shot that will pay off bigger if it wins. And yes, I’ll be taking credit if either one of them wins.

The Pick: Devil May Care (10-1 odds, Post #11)

The only filly in the field who won her debut race at Saratoga in the slop by 4 ¾ lengths. She has a better starting position than the two favorites, which gives her an advantage. My only hesitation is that she will be wearing blinders for the first time during the race. Not sure how that change will affect her, but my amateur opinion is that she has the speed and power to win if she doesn’t get distracted.

The Value Shot: Super Saver (15-1 odds, Post #4)

Trainer Todd Pletcher believes his horse has been training really well on off tracks and Super Saver also won his maiden race on a sloppy track last fall. Combine that with the strong post position and the unflappable Calvin Borel as the jockey and you have the makings of a winner. Borel has won 2 of the past 3 Derby races, so he can never be underestimated, even if it’s easy to overlook him because he looks and acts like an extra from the Wizard of Oz flying monkey brigade.

So expect me to look something like this on Saturday afternoon……but probably without the coat since it’s supposed to be close to 90 degrees in New York.


From horse racing to another crazy four-legged animal……..Fear the Deer tonight!! Go Bucks!!

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