Degenerate Friday - Week 5

Have you ever had that moment when you get too lazy to crop dust, so you just let one go in your office? Without fail, the office “talent” always stops by within 30 seconds to show off her new engagement ring to your complete horror and embarrassment. That’s the moment when you realize you stink. Both figuratively and literally. Well, that has to be how Ted Thompson is feeling right now in Green Bay. He stayed in his office instead of making a move for Marshawn Lynch, and then the Vikings stop by to show off their shiny new toy, Randy Moss. Now Teddy is left in his office smelling his own turds.

Last week was a solid 8-6 week, putting me at 32-26-4 on the year. Not spectacular, but good enough to feel better than Ted Thompson.

The standard disclosures apply: for recreational purposes only, lines from the NY Post, home teams in CAPS, etc.

This week the games are broken down by the different stops in Randy Moss’s career.

The Vikings (Part I) Phase

Randy’s first stint in Minnesota was full of ups and downs – setting rookie records for touchdowns and gently tapping a traffic cop with his car. These are the games that have potential to be good games despite having any real power teams involved. And obviously with Randy’s fake moon during this part of his career, there is no question the 49ers game has to be in this category because of Mike Singletary’s allegedly de-pantsing himself at halftime of a game last year.

BROWNS (+3) over Falcons

The Falcons are 3-1, yet without a Garrett Hartley shank and a Nate Clements brain fart, they’d be 1-3. They have not shown the offensive fire power that was expected of them. The Browns have battled to stay close in all of their games, and they may have found a stolen gem in Peyton Hillis. Mangini fights off the sharks for a second straight week.

RAIDERS (+6) over Chargers

San Diego has feasted on bad teams thus far, and they get another one in the Raiders. Yet something tells me the Raiders will finally show some progress, even with Michael Bush filling in for McFadden. Zach Miller should be able to run wild in the secondary against the Chargers linebackers.

49ERS (-3.5) over Eagles

Is Vegas disrespecting Kevin Kolb that much by making him and the Eagles a 3.5 point dog against the winless Niners? Probably. Is it deserved? Yup. Kolb has looked awful – timid, noodle-armed and overmatched in his limited playing time. Time for SF to get off the winless train at home against the punchless Iggles.

The Oakland Raiders Phase

Disinterested, lazy, distraction, non-factor, irrelevant. All words that can describe Moss’s time in Oakland and these games. Moss is second all-time in receiving TD’s (behind Jerry Rice) and imagine the stats he could have put up if he actually made an attempt to play hard or had an adequate quarterback during the years he wasted in Oakland.

Jaguars (-1) over BILLS

This might be the Bills best chance to avoid coming close to 0-16. Did I mention Ryan Fitzpatrick is the quarterback? It could be a classic letdown game for the Jags after their big win against the Colts, but they still have more playmakers with hyphens than the Bills.

PANTHERS (+2.5) over Bears

Is it really a question whether or not to bet against Todd Collins? The last time he started a game was in 2007, and he was old and washed up then. The Bears have won with smoke and mirrors thus far this season and the wind blew away the smoke and the mirror is one of those “fat mirrors” from the circus.

LIONS (-3) over Rams

The Rams are leading their division and still underdogs against a winless team. Such is life in the NFC West. Lions have been competitive all season and finally break through with a win.

Saints (-6.5) over CARDINALS

The Saints are a lifetime 87-5-1 when playing against a team that cut a former first round quarterback before the season, benched their awful backup, and are starting an undrafted rookie in his first start. That seems like a made up stat that I don’t want to go against.

The Patriots Phase

The resurgent Randy reappears and starts setting records again. Suddenly the locker room cancer that got run out of Minnesota and mercifully traded from Oakland was a great teammate, consummate professional and a key cog on successful teams. Yet that dream didn’t last.

TEXANS (-3) over Giants

Which Giants team will show up? The one that hammered the Panthers? The one that got hammered by the Colts? Or the suffocating defense that destroyed Jay Cutler? Will it be the Texans team that tamed the Colts? Or the team that had to scramble to come from behind against the Redskins? Or the team that got ripped up by the Cowboys? I guess I’ll side with the home team.

Chiefs (+8) over COLTS

Am I really going against a ticked off Colts team at home against a potentially fraudulent 3-0 young Chiefs team? Yup, 8 points is too much for a team that can’t stop the run against a team that has a potent running attack with Thomas Jones & Jamaal Charles.

Vikings (+4) over JETS

While there is no doubt that Tom Brady throws a better deep ball than Brett Favre, and Moss is not as adept at the jump ball as he once was, Randy will still make a difference and be an outlet for the wiener-sexting old gunslinger. There is the possibility that Moss catches 2 TDs and Favre throws 4 interceptions in every game. The inspiration of thir new acquisition will be enough to overcome the loud-talking Jets on Monday night.

The Minnesota (Part II) Phase

This is either going to be boom or bust. It’s either going to be like Marisa Miller or it’s going to be current Madonna. There will be no in between. These games could be gems like the Halladay no-hitter or the Lincecum 2-hitter (which by the way, I might argue that Big Time Timmy Jam’s game was more impressive as it came in a 1-0 game and he had 14 K’s – a MLB postseason debut record) Or these games could end up a complete disaster, like a James Shields start for the Rays.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Buccaneers

This seems like quite a bit of points to lay against a 2-1 team coming off a bye week by a team that just lost to the Browns. Yet the Bengals play much better at home and the 2-1 team is the Bucs. Case closed.

Packers (-2.5) over REDSKINS

This is my least confident pick of the week. The Packers lost another safety and linebacker Nick Barnett to season-ending injuries this week. Add that to the emotional let down of not picking up a key running back and knowing they have the least intimidating running game in the league. Yet the Redskins do not have the playmakers to take advantage of the huge holes that will be in the Dom Capers defense.

RAVENS (-7) over Broncos

Baltimore’s offense seems to be finding a little bit of rhythm and it will be much easier against the Broncos than it was against the Steelers. The Broncos definitely won the Cutler-Orton trade, but they won’t win in Baltimore.

COWBOYS (-6.5) over Titans

Tennessee continues to struggle establishing the run and they don’t have a legit passing game to fall back on. As a result, the Cowboys can get back to .500 and right back in the hunt to win their extremely average division. After the game, Jeff Fisher might put on a Tony Romo jersey, since if the Cowboys falter this year, Wade Phillips will be fired and Jeff Fisher will be the top target for Jerry Jones.

Degenerate Friday - Week 3

Computer issues saved you from losing money with my 8-8 picks last week, so you’re welcome for that. Now we’re on to the next week, where teams find themselves on the verge of losing their seasons before they hit the one quarter mark of the season. Are we ready to make conclusions about teams? Probably not. Remember last year when Josh McDaniels and the Broncos started 6-0 before the bottom fell out? So let’s not get too ahead of ourselves after just a few weeks and then be surprised when the truth comes out. Kind of like the categories for the games this week….celebrity surprises during the past couple weeks.

Standard disclosures apply: Picks are for recreational purposes only, spreads from the NY Post, and home teams in CAPS.

The Paris Hilton Tier

Paris was rejected from Japan this week. Not a major surprise, but then again, it was surprising that she was wearing clothes and wasn’t on a boat.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Bills

What happened to that dynamic CJ Spiller guy who was wearing a Bills jersey in the preseason? The Bills offense has been absolutely horrendous, so while this is a ton of points to lay, it may only take three scores by the Patriots to cover. So when Chan Gailey says that he doesn’t see much difference between Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick, is that an insult to both of them?

Raiders (+4) over CARDINALS

I have been playing the Raiders all season and they’ve yet to pay off. Is this the week with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback? Considering he’s up against the worst quarterback in the league outside of Buffalo in Derek Anderson, I think it is. Is Larry Fitzgerald going to snap after yet another pass sails 5 yards over his head?

SEAHAWKS (+5.5) over Chargers

Chargers laid the lumber last week to Jacksonville and their offense seemed to find the rhythm they couldn’t find in the rain in Kansas City in week 1. So laying 5.5 against a Seattle team that lost to Denver last week shouldn’t be a problem, right? Wrong. Just like Paris Hilton, when the light is shined on them at the right angle (on the road in Seattle), the Chargers have some significant flaws and will be missing Ryan Matthews who has a banged up ankle.

Colts (-5.5) over BRONCOS

Peyton Manning will let you know when it’s safe to bet against the Colts, and after last week’s dismantling of his little brother, the Colts look ready to roll. Add to that the emotional week the Broncos have just had with the death of one of their wide receivers, and Denver could not have found a worse opponent.

The Demi Moore Tier

Ashton Kutcher was busted for cheating on Moore with an extremely average looking girl. Are we surprised that Kutcher is an idiot? He made his career by acting like an idiot on That 70’s Show, acting like an idiot on Punk’d, and being a cougar-hunting idiot. Maybe he was just never acting….

Lions (+11) over VIKINGS

Let me get this straight. The Lions have lost on a terrible call to the Bears and by 3 to the Eagles, and they’re suddenly giving double digits to an 0-2 team that has scored 19 TOTAL points in two weeks? There is a reason the casinos are so big in Vegas, but this is not one of them. The Old Gunslinger hasn’t found a WR he can trust and the difference of philosophy between him and Coach Childress continues to widen.

RAVENS (-10.5) over Browns

Despite the Ravens offensive woes to start the season, the best medicine is playing against the woeful Browns. The Ravens have gone up against the tough Jets defense and the underrated Bengals defense, so their struggles have been blown out of proportion. And I didn’t even have to mention that Seneca Wallace is starting again for the Browns.

Bengals (-3) over PANTHERS

Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Clausen by taking on a Bengals defense that ate pre-season darling Joe Flacco’s lunch last week. Clausen struggling in his debut is less surprising than J-Woww posing in Playboy. Doesn’t it seem like Hugh is overpaying for her pictures? Would it really take more than a bottle of booze and a couple of compliments whispered in her ear?

Eagles (-3) over JAGUARS

Michael Vick is the Boston Cream donut in the Eagles locker room and Andy Reid can’t get enough. He’s so in love with his Boston Cream that he has smashed the chocolate sprinkles donut that he’s been telling everyone he loves for the past 6 months. And that came after he dumped his first love – the Long John donut because it kept making him choke. Maybe Reid just likes donuts.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS

So do we look at the Redskins team that build a 17 point lead against the dangerous Texans or do we look at the Redskins team that blew a 17 point lead against the dangerous Texans? I don’t know, nor do I care. What I do care about is that a spread of barely over a field goal against one of the worst teams in the league should be covered.

The Randy Quaid Tier

Did you see the story where Randy and his wife were arrested for squatting in a house they used to own? Uncle Eddie has definitely fallen on some tough times and he sure looks like it’s been a long, strange journey.

CHIEFS (+2.5) over 49ers

The 49ers are coming off a game in which they played very well against the Saints, but playing in Kansas City is a different story. While Matt Cassel has played awful, the Chiefs will need to rely on their special teams and running game to generate points.

Titans (+3) over GIANTS

Lost in all the attention that the Jets have generated the past few weeks is that the Giants are not very good. They were able to beat a terrible Panthers team despite turning the ball over more times than Lindsay Lohan returns to rehab. Then they got splattered by the Colts. The Titans crushed the Raiders and then were shut down by what has thus far been the best defense in the league, the Steelers. Look for Chris Johnson to get back much closer to his 2500 yard pace.

Steelers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

It doesn’t matter who the Steelers start at quarterback as long as their defense remains as good as they have been. The Josh Freeman leading the young Tampa squad is a nice story, but beating Carolina and Cleveland hardly gives them a boost in the BCS standings.

Jets (+2) over DOLPHINS

This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. The Jets are kind of like Randy Quaid, highly entertaining, but you have to wonder if there are some serious problems behind the outward shell. The Dolphins are 2-0 and can build themselves a nice little lead in the division with a win over the Jets, but they have feasted on a poor Bills offense and a struggling Vikings offense.

The Kelly McGillis Tier

This was the shocker of the week. Kelly was everyone’s favorite military flight instructor in the 80’s blockbuster, Top Gun, and she got married this week…to a woman. I mean, it really kind of changes all the news you have heard recently about “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

SAINTS (-6) over Falcons

Even without Reggie Bush, the Saints offense has a ton of weapons. The Falcons hammered the Cardinals last week and they are at home, but I think the Saints will have recovered from their trip out west in time.

TEXANS (-3) over Cowboys

I really can’t imagine the Cowboys starting the year 0-3. Then again, I never imagined Kelly McGillis playing for the other team – not that there’s anything wrong with that. The Texans have won their first two games, first with a dominant running game and then with a dominant passing game. Look for them to light up the Cowboys in Houston.

Packers (-3) over BEARS

The Bears have proven to be legit thus far, and winning at Dallas last week was impressive. Yet it’s starting to be apparent that the Cowboys may not be as good as we expected, so it does come with a grain of salt. And the Bears should have lost in week 1 to Detroit. If the Packers can generate any kind of running game to keep the Bears defense honest, expect Green Bay to blow them out. Will Ted Thompson finally make a trade for a running back? Here’s a great read about his failed attempts to get Randy Moss a few years back, which makes you think that TT may not be able to trade for Marshawn Lynch like he should.

I'm Back! NFL 2010 Preview MegaPost

Well, I guess I’m like Brett Favre and herpes….you just can’t get rid of me. It’s been ages, but with football season about to kick off it’s time to get back at it and posting regularly. This whole blog started last year with a season preview, so it’s only fitting to get back to work with a season preview/prediction column and wrap in a Degenerate Friday Week 1 picks. And while it is easy on the eyes to watch Caroline Wozniacki play in the U.S. Open, it’s football that really gets us fired up. On a side note – I’m hoping Wozniacki makes the finals because I’ll be there Saturday night. Let’s get right to it…..no gimmicks, no categories, just a full break down of how I see the NFL season playing out.

I break down the season slightly different than most people – most analysts go through and pick their Super Bowl teams and then back their way into records for every team. I go through the entire league schedule and pick every game, then totaling up what records the teams will end up having. The good part is that it doesn’t fall prey to preconceived notions and it definitely allows a tough schedule to have an effect on a team’s final record. The down side is that I end up with some surprises that I may not have made otherwise, as you’ll see with this year’s AFC playoff teams. And I still ended up with 2 new playoff teams in each conference, which is close to the typical 5 teams that surprise people.

Breaking it down by division then a playoff prediction, starting in the NFC

NFC East

Dallas (10-6)

The Cowboys have talked themselves into believing they are a Super Bowl favorite despite bringin

g back most of the team that got drubbed by the Vikings in last year’s playoffs. I expect Marion Barber to have a big season – did you know the guy played last year with a hole in his quad muscle? Think about that – a freaking HOLE in his quad!! Now that he’s healthy, he’s a battering ram that will open up the field for Miles Austin to go deep and Dez Bryant to be a monster. Their offense will be as good as any in the league and their attacking defense will be enough to carry them to the division crown.

NY Giants (9-7)

I don’t actually think the Giants are that good. Yet their schedule falls pretty nicely for them and I think they have enough pieces to be in the mix. Nobody likes Eli Manning, but the guy threw for over 4,000 yards last year and obviously has the support of his team. The NFC East is a lot like the Kardashians in that everyone thinks they’re famous and are a big deal, but stop and think about it for a minute. Kim has some incredible assets (like the Cowboys) and the rest of the family is only famous by association. By association, I guess that makes the Giants equal to Courtney, the next best in the family. And now it’s time to get to the ugly family members…..

Philadelphia (7-9)

So the equation that irrational Eagles fans are selling is Andy Reid equals a winning record. Well when you subtract McNabb and Westbrook and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, and add in a first year starter in Kevin Kolb, it changes things considerably. Kolb may turn out to be a very good quarterback, but even Aaron Rodgers struggled in his first year as a starter. I personally think Kolb does not have the dynamic fire needed to be a premiere quarterback in the league, but he does have enough physical skills to ensure the Eagles stay close.

Washington (6-10)

I saw that the Sports Guy picked the Skins as his sleeper team and has them in the playoffs. I’d like to see that just to stick it to the Eagles and their ridiculous fans. McNabb still has gas in the tank and will definitely be motivated, but he has no one to throw the ball to and the Skins are dealing with the pain in the ass that is Albert Haynesworth. New Sheriff Shanahan will eventually lead them to success, but it won’t be this year.

NFC South

New Orleans (11-5)

The Saints offense is still as dangerous as Dan Hampton on an open microphone. (The former Bear Hampton is the one that said the Vikings should hit New Orleans “like Katrina” and that the Cowboys were “brokeback cowboys” in one show – that’s a helluva performance right up there with Mel Gibson) They have a premiere quarterback, premiere coach, attacking defense and adaptable receiving and running threats. That’s enough to be there deep in the playoffs.

Atlanta (11-5)

I thought the Falcons would break out last year and they got bit by the injury bug slowing their quarterback, running back and slot receiver. This year with a healthy Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Harry Douglas, the Falcons look poised to challenge for the division title. The Falcons could be that team to makes the leap to elite and makes a deep run in the playoffs.

Carolina (8-8)

Their biggest improvement was the removal of the Human Turnover Machine, Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. However, Matt Moore will struggle now that teams can scheme to stop him. They also lost Julius Peppers and Steve Smith hasn’t played since breaking his arm. Oh, and don’t forget they have a lame duck coach that will be moving on after the season and despite the running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, this smells like a .500 team.

Tampa Bay (2-14)

The Bucs have some nice pieces in place for future success, but the immediate future looks painful.

NFC West

San Francisco (9-7)

They are the tallest midget. The NFC West is hideous, and the Niners could run away with the division by barely being over .500. They have the defense that is the fiery design of Mike Singletary and offensive weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabree. If Alex Smith can effectively use his VD and Crabs, it will open things up for Gore and a successful season.

Arizona (8-8)

This text from my brother in Phoenix pretty much summed it up in the desert: “So do I really have to get behind Derek Anderson this season? But I guess it’s better than Leinart.” Anderson has a strong arm which could be beneficial to Larry Fitzgerald, but he has problems telling the difference between his receivers and defensive backs. Having 4 cupcake games against Seattle and St. Louis allows them to stay in the hunt, but Cardinal fans should start preparing for the Max Hall era which may start after a 1-4 start and a bye week.

Seattle (4-12)

Pete Carroll was able to get out of Southern Cal before the shit hit the fan, but he managed to jump right int

o another steaming pile when he went north up the coast. He has almost completely turned over the roster which would be a good thing since the Seahawks were bad, but then when you factor in Carroll’s lack of success in past NFL stints and the overall lack of success of college coaches in the pros, it is a pretty scary proposition.

St. Louis (2-14)

Well, it does appear that Sam Bradford has many of the intangibles and that can help someday return the Rams to respectability. Unfortunately that someday is not this year. Strap on that helmet tight, Sam and live to fight another season.

NFC North

Green Bay (11-5)

The Packers have the favorite for league MVP at quarterback have a healthier offensive line to give him more

time to use his considerable arsenal of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones. The secondary will be tested early without Al Harris and Atari Bigby but they get a scheduling break playing poor or less established passing games early in the year – Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Miami. That could allow the Packers to get off to a very fast start and could carry them to the division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota (9-7)

The Vikings are dealing with plenty of questions after a very successful previous season. Can

Favre hold up? Who is going to be their receiving threat? Is their defense too old? Will the rest of the team resent the special treatment that Diva Favre has gotten? Does anyone like Coach Childress?

Hard to imagine a team going to the Super Bowl when the quarterback hates the coach and the rest of the team doesn’t like either one of them.

Detroit (5-11)

Like Blake Lively, the Lions are bursting with young assets. With the addition of Suh and VandeBosch on the defensive line, the Lions could slow a few offenses, which will give Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best the opportunity to outscore some teams. While 5-11 doesn’t seem like a big jump, when you’re in Detroit, it’s reason to celebrate.

Chicago (5-11)

Coach on the hot seat? Check. Overrated quarterback with an attitude problem? Check. Arrogant offensive coordinator with only one success in his career? Check. Overpaid for a notoriously lazy defensive lineman? Check. Get the fan base excited about signing a third down back? Check. Sounds like another crappy season in Chicago.

AFC East

New England (11-5)

The Patriots are back to where they prefer, under the radar. And Randy Moss is in a contract year, which means he has the potential for a monster year. After last season’s schedule, this year’s slate looks easier than J-Woww after a couple shots of tequila. As long as Brady can keep his Bieber hair out of his eyes, he’ll have a solid arsenal of receiving weapons. Can the Patriots stop anyone? Maybe not, but they will have the offensive firepower to outscore most teams.

NY Jets (10-6)

The Jets remind me of the Seinfeld episode about “The Race” when George pretends he hasn’t seen Jerry since high school and goes on a rant about the millions he made as an architect. Jerry’s response: “You really built yourself up into something, didn’t you?” And that is extremely applicable to the Jets. They were 9-7 last

year. They brought in a bunch of big name veterans past their prime. They got a break to even get into the playoffs. Is that enough to make them Super Bowl favorites? I don’t think so.

Miami (8-8)

The Dolphins have addressed their biggest need, which was a playmaking wide receiver who could actually, you know, catch. They got Brandon Marshall who when paired with Chad Henne give the Dolphins a very potent offense. Unfortunately they face a deadly stretch of games at GB, Pit, at Cin, at Bal, and Ten. If they go 2-3 during that stretch it would be a heck of a

n accomplishment.

Buffalo (5-11)

The Bills managed to find themselves a dynamic game changer in CJ Spiller, but unfortunately they still have Trent Edwards at QB, a leaky offensive line and a defensive line that can’t slow anyone. Could Spiller be a poor man’s Barry Sanders?

AFC South

Indianapolis (13-3)

Every year you start with Indy at 12 wins and then adjust it up or down a game or two. I ex

pect Peyton to bounce back from his Super Bowl pick-6 and be in F-U mode most of the season. Add to that the embarrassment of weapons he has at his disposal and the Colts will blast through the regular season like Justi

n Timberlake blew through the hottest women in Hollywood before settling on Jessica Biel.

Houston (11-5)

Every year people expect the Texans to break through. Every year they let

everyone down. It’s kind of like sending Lindsay Lohan to rehab – when are we finally going to give up on her putting it all together? Well, I’m giving the Texans one last chance because if they just do the simple things, they have the talent to be successful. They have a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a strong defense to go with a QB who is solid in the regular season. That should be enough with their schedule.

Tennessee (7-9)

I have no clue what to expect from this team. Two years ago they went 13-3. Last year they started 0-8 and got blasted 59-0 by the Patriots. Yet they have one of the fastest RBs in the league in Chris Johnson who expects to get 2,500 yards this season. Vince Young and his “Uncle Rico” motion isn’t pretty, but he has been able t

o lead the team to wins. Yet I don’t see this team keeping up with the elite in their division.

Jacksonville (4-12)

Can’t we just move this team to LA and get it over with? No one in Jacksonville would even notice if they were

gone. They might be the most non-descript team in the league with their only star a running back with a knee extremely close to needing a scope that will knock him out for 2-3 weeks at a minimum.

AFC West

San Diego (11-5)

I expected to have this team fall off considerably this year with a rookie bell cow running back and the loss of Vincent Jackson to a hold out. Yet their schedule is so soft, even Norv Turner can lead this team to double-digit wins.

Oakland (9-7)

The Raiders are a lot better than people think. Despite the crazy Al Davis, they have quietly put together a great offseason with the drafting of a game changing linebacker and the trade for a serviceable quarterback in Jas

on Campbell. Campbell relied heavily on his TE, Chris Cooley in Washington, which bodes well for the stats of Zach Miller this season. Look for the Raiders to surprise some people this year and be in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of the year.

Kansas City (8-8)

Thomas Jones will be key to keeping Jamaal Charles fresh, yet the Chiefs still have too many holes defensively to get over the .500 hump.

Denver (6-10)

It now seems pretty obvious that the 6-0 start last year was the aberration. Josh McDaniels put himself in the cross-hairs with his love affair with Tim Tebow, but that is dangerous considering Timmy T is not ready to be the starter. Without Brandon Marshall and with a banged up Knowshon Moreno, the offense will struggle and their defense wasn’t good to begin with.

AFC North

Cincinnati (11-5)

The Bengals boast an attacking defense and a powerful running game. And with the addition of TO, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley, Carson Palmer has run out of excuses. It’s time for his resurgence like recent pictures of Britney Spears in a bikini and utilize his assets. Despite wearing down at the end of last season, I expect the Bengals to get it done.

Pittsburgh (11-5)

This may have been my biggest surprise. I have them starting 1-3 with Dennis Dixon as the starter but the schedule for the Steelers provides a softer landing for Big Ben than landing on the chest of Salma Hayek. With a recommitment to the run, the Steelers have the ability to slug it out with anyone.

Baltimore (10-6)

I was expecting to have the Ravens in the mix for a Super Bowl birth. Unfortunately, while they improved their offensive weapons with the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and TJ Houshmandzadeh, their defensive secondary is a mess with the injuries to Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworthy. That does not bode well to compete with the receiving threats in Cincy and games at Atlanta, at Houston and at New England.

AFC Playoff Teams: (1) Colts, (2) Patriots, (3) Chargers, (4) Bengals, (WC) Texans, (WC) Steelers

NFC Playoff Teams: (1) Packers, (2) Saints, (3) Cowboys, (4) 49ers, (WC) Falcons, (WC) Vikings

hAFC Championship: Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship: Packers over Saints

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION: Green Bay Packers over Colts

Maybe I’m just a homer, but I think all the parts are there for Aaron Rodgers to establish his own legacy in Green Bay. My head says the Colts are the pick to beat the Packers, but I can’t put the Packers that close and not have them pull it off.

QUICK HITS for DEGENERATE FRIDAY – Week 1

Thursday pick: Saints (-5) over Vikings

Falcons (-2) over STEELERS – the Matt Ryan rebound begins

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS – Spiller isn’t enough

Lions (+6.5) over BEARS – Misery begins in the Windy City

GIANTS (-6.5) over Panthers – G-men get revenge on Carolina for ruining the closing of old stadium.

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bengals – Brady celebrates new contract with big opener

Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS – who cares?

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Broncos – barely more interesting than the previous suck-fest

Colts (-2) over TEXANS – Texans not quite ready for prime time

Raiders (+6) over TITANS – Raiders may not win but that spread is too big for the resurgent Raiders

Packers (-3) over EAGLES – easiest game to pick this week

49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS – welcome to the big leagues Coach Carroll

Cardinals (-4) over RAMS – someone has to win this game

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS – McNabb gets a rude welcome in DC

JETS (-2.5) over Ravens – break in the new stadium in style

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers – San Diego never starts fast

Degenerate Friday - Bucks Fans as Bad as Philly Fans?

You would think that living on the East Coast for the past 5 years I would be used to insane and clueless fans. Living in Boston, Sully and O’Malley continually solved the Red Sox pitching woes and knew exactly how to get Manny Ramirez to play hard. Living in New York, Vinny from Staten Island and Tony from Queens know more about how to develop a young pitcher like Joba Chamberlain than Joe Girardi, Brian Cashman or the Steinbrenners could ever know. And in both cities I was in close proximity to the most irrational and moronic fans of them all – Philadelphia fans. They have no self-awareness and are the most fair-weather fans I’ve ever seen.

So imagine my surprise when I’m perusing the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel and read an article on Keyon Dooling joining the Bucks and the ways in which he can help Brandon Jennings. A very nice article by Charles Gardner about the 10 year veteran who once was a top ten pick and seems to finally have found his groove in the NBA.

At the end of the article, the first couple of comments from fans almost knocked me out of my chair. Here were the Milwaukee fans, typically a little over-optimistic, but not as cynical or insane as the fans in many other cities, declaring that Kenyon Dooling has nothing to teach Brandon Jennings. Really? Are you serious? There is nothing that Jennings, an offensive dynamo but horrendously bad defender, can learn from a very good on-ball defender who has been around the league for 10 times as many seasons? The fans’ reasons were all based on the fact that Jennings has more talent than Dooling, so there is nothing he can learn.

Did Kobe Bryant learn things from Derek Fisher? Who on the Lakers controls Bryant’s temper, competitiveness and has his ear continually? Fisher. And there is no doubt that Fisher has much less given talent than Kobe. And Kobe’s coach? Phil Jackson was a solid, but not spectacular NBA player, so having less talent than Kobe, I guess he can’t teach him anything……oh wait, they’re positioned to win their second three-peat together.

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In other news, since it is Degenerate Friday…here are the things not to bet on this weekend:

Don’t Bet On:
- Fat Albert Haynesworth passing his conditioning test
- Brett Favre staying out of the headlines for the next week

- Tiger Woods winning the Bridgestone tournament this weekend
- Darrelle Revis being in training camp anytime soon
- ESPN not cramming the Red Sox – Yankees series down our throats when it’s pretty obvious the Red Sox are not going to catch the Yanks or Rays
- Every story you read about Nolan Ryan and his financial backers buying the Texas Rangers will have a picture of Nolan giving a noogie to Robin Ventura.

Degenerate Friday! 2nd Half Predictions

Since my baseball futures bet of the Mariners went so well in the first half of the season, I figured I’d make some predictions for the second half of the season. I mean, I believe I wrote that the addition of Milton Bradley combined with the veteran leadership of Ken Griffey Jr. would carry the M’s offense. Yeah, that didn’t work out all that well – it’s hard to lead when you’re sleeping in the clubhouse and retiring before the all-star break, and it’s hard to provide offensive punch when you’re taking time off for mental instability. Anyway, let’s hope my second half thoughts can burst on the scene like Jen Brown – the next Erin Andrews chosen to be the ESPN sideline princess during college football season. She seems to have all the assets, understands her role and judging by her outfit at the ESPY’s, is not afraid of the limelight.

AL Playoff Teams:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Red Sox

It’s a pretty boring picture in the AL, without many surprises. The Yankees have the best team in baseball, with a pitching staff capable of carrying them through even without their potent offensive line up. It’s a bad sign when you know that they will be involved before the trading deadline and all they are looking for is middle relief or set up help in the bullpen. It’s like having the assets of Brooklyn Decker and only having to worry about finding the right dress for the ESPY’s to showcase her talent – it’s not really fair to anyone else around.

The Red Sox have been fighting the injury bug all season and the continued absence of Dustin Pedroia will hamper the offense as they try to stay with the Rays for the wildcard. If they can get him and Josh Beckett back healthy and effective, they will reel in the Rays and pass them for the last playoff spot. The Sox pitching with Lester, Lackey and a healthy Beckett could make them a nightmare in the playoffs if they can qualify.

The Twins will be able to outlast the Tigers & White Sox in the Central and the Rangers will run away the west with the addition of Cliff Lee. Lee can carry the Rangers to the AL Championship Series and gives them a fighting chance with his dominance of the Yankees. Unfortunately the Yankees veterans will prove too much for the Rangers, despite the playoff experience of Lee & Vladamir Guerrero.

Divisional Round:
Yankees over Twins
Rangers over Red Sox

AL Champ: Yankees over Rangers


NL Playoff Teams:
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL Wildcard: Mets

The Braves made a smart trade getting rid of the immensely talented but mercurial Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez. In Bobby Cox’s final season, the team is all pulling in the same direction and can’t afford the distraction of the often-disinterested shortstop. With the return to health of Jason Heyward and Nate McClouth, the Braves offense will be able to match their strong pitching and hold off the Mets and Phillies for the division crown.

The Reds have been among the surprises in baseball this season. While they had the talent to compete, no one knew if the youth would finally come through. They are much like the 2008 Brewer team in that they have a young core of talent that should be able to carry them, but they could definitely use an extra pitcher to give them the leverage to hold off the Cardinals. They should try to get involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes, yet it might be more difficult to get a division foe to trade with than it would be to get a Vegas VIP hostess job without frontcourt enhancements.

The Padres have been a tremendous story during the first half of the year with a pitching staff that has kept them at or near first place most of the season. Yet the Rockies have been coming on as of late and all the experts seem to think they are still the team to beat in the NL West.

The Mets will also be heavily involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes and may be the team capable of taking on his big contract. Also look for them to be there to get Ted Lilly from the Cubs. That addition of a pitcher combined with the return of Carlos Beltran, even if he is not at full strength, should be enough to hold off the injury-riddled Phillies for the Wildcard.

NL Divisional Round
Braves over Reds
Mets over Rockies

NL Championship: Braves over Mets

World Series: Yankees over Braves

Degenerate Friday!! Random Ramblings

Before I get to any gambling talk, a couple of random thoughts…..

First, who the hell invented button-flys on pants or shorts? My wife bought me a new pair of khaki shorts because she said cargo shorts were more out than Ricky Martin. Anyway, they’re your basic shorts except that they have a button fly. A button-fly must have been invented by a woman and signed off on by a guy who has never gotten any in his life. Let’s see, a girl – we’ll say Diora Baird for fun - finally decides to give you some action, but you’re going to make it extremely difficult to get into the junkyard to play with your junk. And while she’s fiddling with the buttons, your chubinski has went softer than the Suns defense. Great idea Mr. Clothes Designer.

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I’m in the gym yesterday afternoon in Manhattan and notice a girl is wearing a pair of shorts with “Wisconsin” across her rear end. Interesting, and then I notice she’s also wearing a t-shirt with “Wisconsin” across her chest. So in many instances I would ask her if she went to Wisconsin or was from Wisconsin. However, in this instance, what’s the proper way to approach a girl and tell her that you noticed she had Wisconsin across her butt and across her chest….but I wasn’t checking out her butt or her chest. And since she was wearing headphones, do I motion towards her butt or chest? Yeah, that’s not going to go over well. Let’s just move on……..

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Maybe the Magic and the Suns will get back into their series this weekend. Maybe not. My degenerate picks for the week:

Saturday: Boston (-3.5) at Orlando
Sunday: Phoenix (-3) vs. Los Angeles

Maybe the Suns can hope for their fans to be almost as rowdy as these European hoops fans (wait for the 35 second mark)……

Degenerate Friday - Is Vince Carter Ric Flair?

Last night during the Magic-Hawks game, the key player on the floor was not first team All-NBA member Dwight Howard despite his 29 point, 17 rebound effort, or third team All-NBA member Joe Johnson. It was Vince Carter. The 33-year old veteran is the key to the Magic’s goal of winning the NBA title this season as a replacement for Hedo Turkoglu. Carter is needed to be the guy who can create his own shot in crunch time, because down the stretch of a close game Dwight Howard does not have a refined post game and is unreliable at the free throw line (last night not withstanding) and Rashard Lewis is only a spot up shooter. The Magic will need Vinsanity to knock down jumpers, get to the hoop and be able to create offense when the shot clock winds down.

Despite his immense talents, I find it hard to root for Carter. He was an absolute freak of an athlete in college at the University of North Carolina and his career stats are impressive (he is the second-leading scorer in Nets history having only spent 5 seasons in New Jersey). Yet he has always been a moody, pouting player that has the perception of a guy that puts himself above the team. While playing in Toronto he attended his college graduation the morning of game 7 of a playoff series against Philly and ended up missing a game-winning shot at the buzzer. He was accused of risking his team’s chances for his own personal goals. He then made comments when he was traded from the Raptors that were taken to mean he didn’t always give his full effort. His image is very similar to Randy Moss, another guy with as much talent and athleticism as anyone but a lack of passion to give full effort and and pouts his way through the season. If they have their heads on straight, Carter and Moss have the ability to carry their teams to championships but we’re still waiting for either of them to reach that level.

On the other end of the spectrum is a guy like Grant Hill of the Phoenix Suns. Hill came into the league with high expectations that were only tempered by the lack of success of his fellow Duke alumni. Hill immediately went to work and became one of the best players in the game. He gutted out injuries and played through pain, even causing long-term damage that would end up costing him years of being less effective. Yet he has worked his way back to being a vital role player on a team that is easy to root for. He continues to play hard, does not talk or whine about his injuries or his lack of playing time during his recovery. He is well-spoken and a team leader.

To use a wrestling analogy, Grant Hill is the People's Champion, The Rock. He rallies the crowd, plays the good guy and has everyone rooting for him. Let's just hope that Hill doesn't end up doing horrendous Disney movies after a failed attempt to be an action hero. Carter on the other hand is more like Ric Flair, the greatest villain of all time. He has the talent, but his arrogance and lack of concern for the crowd or whether or not he is liked overshadows that natural talent. If Carter could just grow that long blonde hair like the Nature Boy and let out a couple of classic Flair "Whooooo!"s before each game and after each dunk, it would be amazing.

The unfortunate aspect is that I think Carter and the Magic have a much better chance of winning a title this year than the Suns, yet I would much rather see Hill hoisting the trophy than Carter.

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Since it is Degenerate Friday, I have to have some action out there……

Cavaliers (-1) over Celtics (Friday night)
This is the game that LeBron James has to win. He cannot come out and be a drama queen or timid with his elbow soreness. He has rubbed it and shot the left-handed free throw so everyone knows just how banged up he is. Is he setting himself up for an excuse to leave Cleveland? “I was injured and the rest of the team couldn’t step up at all, so I can’t win here.” Or is he just building suspense? Kobe Bryant has a bum knee and a broken finger on his shooting hand, yet the media isn’t obsessed with it, and more importantly, you don’t hear Kobe talking about it. If James wants to win a title, tonight is his chance to come out and make a statement that he is going to take this team to the title. The Celtics have the heart of a champion and Ray Allen is playing better than he has in the past two seasons, so they will be ready to defend their home court. Yet the Cavs are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 playoff games as a favorite and 23-7 ATS in games coming off a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The abundance of off days should have given James enough time to rest his elbow and the Cavs will come out and take back their home court advantage.

Degenerate Friday - Kentucky Derby!!

There are plenty of gambling options this weekend in the NBA, but the real crown jewel of degenerates will be the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon. The Derby is kind of like an early 1990’s Mike Tyson fight in that there is a ton of hype and build up and then it is over in the blink of an eye. With all the build up and hype, it’s over in just over two minutesNBC has a 3 hour pre-race show where they will give you stories on all of the jockeys and all of the owners. Does anyone really pay attention to the prerace show? I assume that while people are pounding mint juleps wearing pastel colored outfits at their Derby parties the show may be on in the background. If you’re going to gamble on the race, nothing said during a pre-recorded show about Bob Baffert is going to change your bet. The only thing of value will be the weather report.

The biggest story leading up to the race has been which horses have pulled out of the race due to injury or fatigue and the post positions. The favorite, Lookin At Lucky drew the rail which is not favorable due to the layout of the track and every other horse crowding down to get to the rail. The next favorite, Sidney’s Candy, drew the outside post which is not ideal in a field of 20 horses.

According to weather reports, it looks like an 80% chance of rain for the race, which could push back the post time and the track may be a muddy mess. And you know what Kramer learned about being a Mudder….. …..

Unfortunately, according to this site, all of the horses claim to have had success on “off tracks” or in the slop. So does that really change the bets? Not necessarily. I will be making two picks for the race, the pick I expect to win and then a slightly longer shot that will pay off bigger if it wins. And yes, I’ll be taking credit if either one of them wins.

The Pick: Devil May Care (10-1 odds, Post #11)

The only filly in the field who won her debut race at Saratoga in the slop by 4 ¾ lengths. She has a better starting position than the two favorites, which gives her an advantage. My only hesitation is that she will be wearing blinders for the first time during the race. Not sure how that change will affect her, but my amateur opinion is that she has the speed and power to win if she doesn’t get distracted.

The Value Shot: Super Saver (15-1 odds, Post #4)

Trainer Todd Pletcher believes his horse has been training really well on off tracks and Super Saver also won his maiden race on a sloppy track last fall. Combine that with the strong post position and the unflappable Calvin Borel as the jockey and you have the makings of a winner. Borel has won 2 of the past 3 Derby races, so he can never be underestimated, even if it’s easy to overlook him because he looks and acts like an extra from the Wizard of Oz flying monkey brigade.

So expect me to look something like this on Saturday afternoon……but probably without the coat since it’s supposed to be close to 90 degrees in New York.

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From horse racing to another crazy four-legged animal……..Fear the Deer tonight!! Go Bucks!!