The Effect of Moving the NFL Draft to Prime Time

The NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night and this year the structure of the draft event has changed dramatically. The draft used to have the first two rounds on Saturday followed by the remaining rounds (3-7) on Sunday. This year the NFL has decided to create more television advertising and turned the draft into a prime time affair. The first round will take place on Thursday night, the 2nd and 3rd rounds will be on Friday evening and the remaining 4th through 7th rounds will be picked on Saturday. The NFL has a good chance to take the ratings crown in primetime, because the bar isn’t that high. Networks have turned to former sitcom stars that have now aged and tried to relight that candle. Elaine Benes (Seinfeld) on The New Adventures of Old Christine, Courtney Cox (Friends) on Cougartown, and now Alyssa Milano (Who’s The Boss & Charmed) on a new show called “Romantically Challenged” which debuted a few nights ago. Fairly entertaining, but unlikely to last long. Anway, where was I? Oh yeah, the NFL draft………You can debate the reasoning behind the move to prime time if you want, but the better question is what will be the impact on the teams and the players hoping to be drafted?

Side Note: While typing that paragraph, Ray Allen just hit another couple 3-pointers from the corner against the Heat. Dear Miami – you might want to guard him in that corner. Don’t think a game (potentially a series) like this against Boston where Dwayne Wade is the only guy competing won’t have an impact on where he signs this summer as a free agent. Chicago is competing against the Cavs. The Heat is not. Getting blown out by a Celtics team without Garnett where guys not named Wade went 18-51 (31%) is awful. Quentin Richardson (2-7 and a -33 +/-), please check your own manhood before calling anyone else an actress.

Increased Trades
The first and most obvious effect will be the increase of trading that will take place, particularly on the nights between draft action. When each day is complete, the teams will be able to regroup all of their management and scouts and evaluate where the team stands after the moves they made that day. They will also be able to break down the available players for the upcoming rounds, and target players they want to be in position to get. They now have that time over night to talk to all the teams they need to in order to secure a higher draft spot to get the guy they want. It’s like you’re out at the bar, and you head to Q-doba to meet up with your regular hook up around 1:30 in the morning. When you get there, you see her, understand what you have and realize there was a Pink look-alike at the bar. You immediately hail a cab, sacrifice the burrito and cab fare to go back to find Pink-light because she fits a need for you and isn’t a fit for the others still at the bar. Last year on the Saturday night after the first two rounds, the Jets decided they wanted Shonn Greene and make a move to get the first pick on Sunday morning, which they used to draft the running back who will be their 2010 starter. Expect to see a ton of that activity late Thursday night after the first round is complete and again on Friday night after the first 3 rounds are over.

Players in Demand
The other benefit goes to those players that are the guys that have slid lower than expected. Suddenly if Colt McCoy is still available when Thursday night wraps up, will a team go back to their war room and make the decision that they need to have him? What about a team like the 49ers? If they draft an offensive lineman with the 13th pick, would it be worth it to trade their 3rd and 5th round picks to get their potential QB of the future? And that plays out great for Colt McCoy because instead of some team waiting back and having him get selected with the 45th pick, he now goes around the 35th pick, which is a bigger contract. Yeah, maybe I just made another excuse to post a picture of Colt McCoy’s fiance….are you complaining? This time I didn’t bother to include Colt in the picture.

And finally, just to wrap up the draft thoughts, there is this awesome video of Rich Eisen of the NFL Network running the 40 yard dash at the combine in Indy. They then overlay the running of some of the top prospects to see how quickly Eisen falls behind and how much slower he is…..especially when they compare him to the 300+ pound defensive line prospect Terrence Cody. (fastforward to the 2:30 mark for the best parts)

Degenerate Friday - NBA Playoffs - EAST

Yesterday we broke down the Western Conference and now it’s time for the East……..By the way, great move by the Zen Master, Phil Jackson making his comments about Kevin Durant getting too many calls. It couldn’t have worked better. Yes, Phil had to make a donation to the league/charity, but he got in the head of all the officials before the series even began – just as he has done every single year he has ever coached (whining about the treatement of Shaq, the treatment of Jordan, etc.). And more importantly, Durant walked right into it, saying he felt disrespected. Durant should be focused on his team and his game, not comments from the opposing coach. Congrats Kevin, Phil now owns you and will destroy you from the inside out.

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls

Cavaliers odds: 1/2 to win the East, 7/4 to win the NBA Title
Bulls odds: 100/1 to win the East, 175/1 to win the NBA Title

And so the quest to keep LeBron James in Cleveland begins again. The question is whether a title helps or hurts the Cavs chances of resigning James. If he wins the title, does he then feel like he brought a title to his hometown and he could then move on to bigger and better things? Or would he feel the pressure to stick around and defend that title and create a dynasty in his home town? The Cavs have all the weapons to win the title surrounding James. They have the big man in O’Neal and depth with Ilgauskas. They have a forward who can score and rebound in Antwan Jamison, and a capable point guard in Mo Williams. Is Mike Brown a good enough coach? Is Brooklyn Decker a genius? It doesn’t matter when you have the best talent.

The Bulls have a solid group of talent on the floor, but the unrest between the coaching staff and management will be difficult to overcome. Vinny Del Negro knows that he is going to be fired after the season regardless of how the deep the Bulls go which has to have a psychological effect on him and the rest of the team. Perhaps the cause of the fight between GM John Paxson and Del Negro started because of Joakim Noah’s minutes, but maybe what pushed Paxson over the edge was Del Negro asking him why he traded a proven playoff perimeter threat in John Salmons that the Bulls could desperately use to try and match up with the Cavs. The Bulls are like Angelina Jolie in that they have some tremendous assets, but when you put the package together their brain trust is pretty messed up and she comes with a bunch of young baggage.

The Cavs have no value for gambling to get out of the East, but they are my pick to win the NBA title. LeBron is at the absolute peak of his game and I would love to see a Kobe-LeBron match up almost as much as ABC would love to see it.

First Round Prediction: Cavs in 5 games

#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats

Magic odds: 10/3 to win the East, 6/1 to win the NBA Title
Bobcat odds: 65/1 to win the East, 125/1 to win the NBA Title

The Bobcats are a great story making their first playoff appearance in franchise history and are another success story for the oft-traveled Larry Brown. They play tough defense and gave up the fewest points per game in the Eastern Conference, which they needed because they scored the third fewest points. With the exception of Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton, the Bobcats are a collection of cast offs and other teams’ unwanted assets – Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Tyrus Thomas, and Larry Hughes. Much like Kristin Cavallari, no one really likes her no matter what she does. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, their best all-around player, Gerald Wallace has struggled against the Magic, averaging only 11 points per game, more than 7 points below his regular season average. That will make it tough when their second scoring option is muffled.

The Magic brought in Vince Carter to be the difference maker and bring them an NBA championship. Prior to the season, I thought pairing a moody guy like Carter with a demanding coach like Ron Jeremy…errr…Stan Van Gundy sounded as dumb as Michael Kay’s pronunciation of Alex Rodriguez’s name on the YES network. Kay insists on calling him Alex Rah-DREE-giz unlike the other 99.99% of the world that pronounces it Rod-REE-gez. Just another example of why Kay stinks. Anyway…where was I? Oh yeah, Vince Carter. Carter gives the Magic a legit second scoring option behind Dwight Howard and makes the Magic the next best option to Team LeBron. Like Emmanuelle Chriqui, they have all the weapons needed, but they fly slightly under the radar. They present matchup problems for the Cavs if they both advance to the Eastern Finals and would be a good bet to win the title.

For gambling purposes, the Magic are a decent bet to win the East and might be worth throwing some cash at. For some reason, I can see the Magic winning the East but can’t see them beating the Lakers or Mavericks. That doesn’t make much sense since I see the Cavs winning it all, and if the Magic beat the Cavs, then they should be able to beat the West champ, right? Not in my mind.

First Round Prediction: Magic in 5 games

#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks

Hawks odds: 10/1 to win the East, 28/1 to win the NBA Title
Bucks odds: 65/1 to win the East, 150/1 to win the NBA Title

If someone asked you to name the top 3 teams in the East last weekend, you probably would have said, Cleveland, Orlando and Boston. The media is so hung up on the aging Celtics that they have failed to notice that the Hawks actually took care of the #3 seed with relative ease. The Hawks are loaded with talent, but all talent that doesn’t get many headlines. Most people know Joe Johnson because he is going to be a great booby prize that the Knicks land after they fail to land LeBron this summer as a free agent. Can you name the Hawks leading rebounder? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? It’s Al Horford, who averages 9.9 rebounds per game to go with his 14 points. They also have a veteran point guard in Mike Bibby, a scorer in Jamal Crawford, and an athletic wingman (that can match up with Rashard Lewis, Antwan Jamison or Paul Pierce) in Josh Smith. The Hawks are like John Malkovich in that they are tremendously talented and can fill a bunch of roles, but you never really think of them as a great leading actor.

The Bucks were dealt a death blow when Andrew Bogut suffered his elbow injury. With Bogut, they had the potential to beat the Hawks or the Celtics and put a scare into the Cavs or Magic in the second round. Unfortunately without him they are scrambling to have any sort of inside presence that would allow them to hang with any of those teams. The addition of John Salmons was pure genius and when combined with the signing of Jerry Stackhouse the Bucks found a perimeter game that more versatile and dangerous that what was being offered from Michael Redd. Scott Skiles has done a great job this season but the loss of Bogut will be too much to overcome when combined with the fact that rookie point guard Brandon Jennings is too small and not tough enough defensively. Jennings is an awesome offensive talent, but is a huge liability on defense. Atlanta is going to run continual screen and rolls with veteran Mike Bibby and Jennings doesn’t fight through the screens well enough, causing others to help out, leaving Joe Johnson or Jamal Crawford open jumpers. Like Lt. Dan from Forest Gump, the Bucks “ain’t got no legs” without Andrew Bogut.

The Hawks are an intriguing bet to win the East because of their ability to match up with any team in the East. The problem they have is that they don’t have a guy that can take over a game and carry the team on his shoulders. Joe Johnson can be clutch and Jamal Crawford could get hot, but do they have the ability to carry a team over an entire series? I’m not sure.

First round prediction: Hawks in 6

#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat

Celtics odds: 13/2 to win the East, 12/1 to win the NBA Title
Heat odds: 40/1 to win the East, 90/1 to win the NBA Title

The Celtics are the Pam Anderson of the playoffs. They have aged considerably, but still have the headline grabbing assets and the ability to turn it on every once in a while. However, every time they make that big run and expend more energy, it’s going to take a toll on them and they will be slower to recover. Kevin Garnett was my favorite player in the league for nearly 12 years and it’s almost sad to see how much his knee has deteriorated and taken away his explosiveness. Ray Allen still has a quick and accurate trigger and together with the lightning quick play of Rajon Rondo they will be able to contain the Heat’s strength in the first round. Unfortunately, I see this as the final year of the Celtics window to win, and the window is not open wide enough for Big Baby Davis’s rear end or Pamela Anderson’s front court to fit through.

The Heat have quietly put together a nice season and are hoping that they have done enough to show Dwayne Wade why he should stay in South Beach and sign an extension this summer. They have allowed the second fewest points per game in the Eastern Conference and have the electric scoring option that has proven that he gets all the calls from the refs in Dwayne Wade. The question is whether the Heat has enough in their supporting cast to get them out of the first round and put some fear in the top teams. Jermaine O’Neal has played fairly well, but watching his old bones do battle against the ghost of Garnett will be painful to watch. Michael Beasley has shown strong improvement and maturity this season, but is still only shooting 45% from the field and is not a consistent threat. Like Sophia Veraga, the Heat have one outstanding asset that can only carry them so far.

Stay away from these teams for gambling purposes. The Celtics odds are a terrible value and should be avoided at all costs. The Heat are going nowhere even if they get out of the first round.

First Round Prediction: Celtics in 7 games

Weekend Hangover - All-Star Weekend

A quick version of Love/Hate today for the President’s Day holiday. Most people have the day off, unless your company doesn’t like presidents?

Love

- Random notes from flying back from Milwaukee after helping my sister move:

o On most flights, that couple moments as the plane taxis out to the runway are typically quiet with everyone wrestling to own the arm rest and getting into their newspapers/books/etc. Not on flights coming out of Milwaukee. The people are all so friendly, asking everyone where they’re from, where they’re headed and just generally the friendliest people on earth. “Eh, Marge! Dis guy is from da north side a da city just like yer nephew, Daryl.”

o Only on flights out of Milwaukee do you have the overwhelming smell of pizza and cheeseburgers dominating the flight…..at 10:15 in the morning. And that’s of course before those Midwest Airlines chocolate chip cookies get delivered.

- I thoroughly enjoy a good beat down of Tom Crean, whether he was the coach at Marquette or now that he’s running the Indiana program into the ground. In addition to being an insufferable arrogant prick, I have to ask, Tommy – is there a tanning bed in your office? I just came back from the Midwest and let me tell you, there is no one there as tan as you. The only people close are those that just came back from Arizona, and since you supposedly work 18 hour days as the coach, when do you have time to sit in the sun and work on your tan? I have met Tommy Tan on multiple occasions and heard him give a bunch of motivational speeches. The guy just likes to hear himself talk and just about throws both arms out of socket patting himself on the back while trying to motivate his audience. So it is with great delight to watch TT take regular beat downs outside of the comforts of the pathetic Conference-USA.

- Speaking of Tom Crean, congrats to his meal ticket, Dwayne Wade on his All-Star MVP award last night. And Nate Robinson won the dunk contest over some guy that I guarantee no one other than his mother and his crew knew was even in the league. It seemed like the biggest story from the All-Star weekend was the stadium and the fact that over 100,000 watched the game live at the Jerry-Dome. Although most of them just had to watch it on the jumbo screen where the pictures of the players were actually larger than the real-life version that was playing below the screen.

Hate

- Valentine’s Day in New York. Even the flower places jack up the price on Valentine’s Day in New York. There are very few things that are cheaper in New York than anywhere else, but the two important ones are flowers and dry cleaning. There are so many little places selling flowers and offering dry cleaning (and yes, some of those places are one in the same) that it’s actually very cheap and most places will pick up and deliver for free. However, come Valentine’s Day, those same flowers I was getting for $10 are now jacked to $30. Just another reason why I am a firm believer in buying flowers at random for your wife/girlfriend/girl that you drunkenly make out with every Friday night dancing on the tables so that you’re off the hook for flowers on cheesey holidays. And don’t get me started on the prefix menus at every restaurant forcing you to get 4 or 5 courses each. First, I don’t need that much food because I don’t want to be a deuce (again). Second, your wife/girlfriend/drunken hookup is not going to want to be seen plowing through all those courses either, so she’s going to waste the food, and it’s a waste of your cash that you could be saving towards that 55” flatscreen television.

- When did NBC become the Lifetime network for women? I’ve already covered my lack of interest in the Olympics, but then again, the sports menu is fairly limited this time of year, so I will be checking it out ocassionally. Of course there are only a few sports I am willing to watch, starting with the hockey. Yet NBC has decided to show ice dancing instead of the hockey game between the USA and Canada. Really?!?! Really?!?!?! Honestly?!?!? No S#it!?!?! Who is in charge of their programming, Oprah? And right after ice dancing, they will be showing an after school special “Jenny Eat Something” or “He Beats Me Because He Loves Me”.

- Let me see if I have this straight, the Daytona 500 is the “Super Bowl of Racing” for NASCAR, right? What other sport do you know of that starts it’s season with the Super Bowl? Then again, I guess it’s fitting for a sport where the most exciting parts of the race are the pit stops and crashes. Otherwise it’s just watching people make left turns over and over again.

Tuesday Ramblings - Worst of the Decade

What a sloppy game, but a big win for the Packers over the Ravens. There were 10 first downs due to penalties (9 pass interference) during the game and both quarterbacks realized when the play broke down, just throw it deep and there’s a pretty good chance of a penalty. Tramon Williams of Green Bay showed on multiple occasions his favorite play is an arm bar to grab the receiver to try and improve his closing speed. Unfortunately for him, the refs were aware of his specialty. Jon “Sunny” Gruden tried to blame the penalties on the weather before adjusting his knee pads for any discussion regarding Charles Woodson (who played for Sunny in Oakland)

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With Jimmy Clausen and Golden Tate declaring for the NFL Draft, the next Notre Dame coach will be coming into a serious rebuilding situation with a pretty bare cupboard. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results, right? I mentioned the similarities between Brian Kelly and Charlie Weiss yesterday. Now they’re also going to talk to a young hotshot from Stanford in Jim Harbaugh. Well, that sounds really familiar too, so where have I heard that story? Oh yeah, Notre Dame hired Ty Willingham from Stanford, and well, we all know how that turned out. How about some creativity or a new idea in South Bend?

UPDATE: Harbaugh says he is not talking to Notre Dame and has no interest in the job. Maybe the Irish will call Bob Davie to see if he has a brother?

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As we wind down the last few weeks of the decade, there will likely be a ton of rankings and ratings of the “best of the decade” in everything from music to movies to sports. I’m going the other way and I want to cover some of the worst of the decade. It’s time to look at the worst draft picks in the NFL and NBA during the decade. It’s also time to look at the worst champion in baseball, basketball and football during the decade. As the decade ends with the year of “transgressions” from Tiger to David Letterman to Steve Phillips and so on and so on…….let’s look at some other teams and drafts that scraped the bottom of the barrel.

Worst NBA Draft Pick – Darko Milicic (#2 Overall, Detroit Pistons)
In judging the NBA draft, I tried to discount many of the foreign players taken later in the first round because in many instances they weren’t expected to actually play in the US. As a result, many of the Spurs picks were not eligible. However, Darko Milicic was the second overall selection in 2003 ahead of guys like Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony. He has bounced around like Lucy Pinder without a bra and is on his 4th team in 6 years, and is averaging 5.4 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Honorable mention for the worst pick of the decade goes to Marcus Haislip (#12 by the Milwaukee Bucks in 2002), Mateen Cleaves (#14 by the Detroit Pistons in 2000) and Adam Morrison (#3 by the Charlotte Bobcats in 2006).

Worst NBA Champion – 2006 Miami Heat
There were 5 franchises that accounted for all the titles during the decade, the Lakers, Celtics, Spurs, Heat & Pistons. The 2006 Heat were a flash in the pan and the team where Pat Riley threw his “friend” Stan Van Gundy – the coach who bears an uncanny resemblance to Ron Jeremy - under the bus so he could take over the coaching duties to get the title. They beat underwhelming teams from Chicago, New Jersey and Detroit to get to the Finals, where Dwayne Wade and Shaq were on the positive end of some very shoddy officiating. Honorable mention goes to the 2004 Pistons who did not have a 20 point scorer, and benefitted from the infighting between Shaq & Kobe to beat the Lakers.

Worst MLB Champion – 2006 St. Louis Cardinals
The 2006 Cardinals went only 83-78 in the regular season and made the playoffs solely because the rest of the NL Central was so weak. They had a worse record than the second place teams in the NL East and West. Albert Pujols was their only legit offensive weapon, and their pitching was not going to scare anyone. Chris Carpenter went 15-8 with an ERA of 3.09, their only starter with an ERA under 4. They got through the playoffs on the suddenly hot arm of Jeff Suppan, which he parlayed into getting overpaid by the Brewers where he has stunk since then. Oh, and if you need any more proof, David Eckstein was the World Series MVP. A guy that is barely bigger than Verne Troyer was the MVP, proving that the league had finally decided to pay some attention to steroid abuse.

Honorable mention goes to the 2005 Chicago White Sox, where journeyman Jon Garland won 18 games, and Paul Konerko powered the offense to the title over the Astros.

Worst NFL Champion – 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers were a collection of Tony Dungy players coached to the title by Jon Gruden, who the Bucs had bought from Oakland during the off-season. And that paid off tremendously as Tampa played the Raiders in the Super Bowl, and Gruden’s knowledge of his previous team paid off in the Super Bowl, when league MVP Rich Gannon had 5 interceptions. Gannon gave it up easier than a ___________ (choose your own adventure: Vegas Cocktail Waitress, Perkins Waitress, NYC club VIP Hostess, Porn Star). The Bucs had Brad Johnson at quarterback, which immediately puts them among the worst champions of all time. They didn’t have a 1,000 yard rusher (Michael Pittman had 718 yards) and Keyshawn Johnson barely topped the magic mark receiving (1,088 yards).

Honorable mention goes to the 2001 Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens had a horrid offense, but had a legendary defense so they can’t be completely discounted. Their defense practically outscored their offense, with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and the always-hungry Jon Jurkovic.

Worst NFL Draft Pick – Charles Rogers (#2 pick by the Detroit Lions in 2003)
I tried to discount how bad Rogers was due to some unfortunate injuries, as the guy broke his collar bone twice. But then I remembered how much he also loved the ganja and had a work ethic that rivaled JaMarcus Russell. He was drafted right ahead of Andre Johnson, who has turned into one of the best receivers in the league, also making the pick of Rogers that much more egregious. Rogers played in only 15 games during his 3 year career catching a total of 36 passes for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns. Rogers was among the draft blunders by Matt Millen, sandwiched by Joey Harrington in 2002 and Roy Williams in 2004. Maybe the problem was Chris Tucker took a break from filming Friday and Rush Hour and took Rogers place in the NFL?

Honorable Mention: There are a bunch of them, including the defensive linemen Justin Harrell and Jamal Reynolds both drafted by the Packers. Yet it came down to Rogers compared to Courtney Brown, the #1 pick in 2000 by the Cleveland Browns who lasted less than 5 years and played only 61 games, compiling 19 sacks. Another contender was JaMarcus Russell, the #1 pick in 2007 who could dominate an all-you-can-eat buffet, but couldn’t read a defense. In 28 games, Russell has thrown 17 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, with a passer rating under 66. His only redeeming quality at this point is that he is still fairly young and could maybe have a Vince Young revival? It’s unlikely, but possible.