Believe the Hype

Stephen Strasburg made his much-anticipated debut last night and the hype machine was running at full tilt like the hype before Show Girls came out and everyone was jacked to see Jessie Spano take it all off. Thankfully for Strasburg, his debut was much more impressive than Elizabeth Berkley’s. Strasburg went 7 innings, gave up 2 runs on a HR, walked none and struck out 14 mixing a 100 mph fastball with a 91 mph slider and an 82 mph changeup.

The doubters will point out that he pitched against one of the worst line ups in all of baseball, and that it was only one game. Yes, he still could have a Mark Prior injury (by the way, Prior’s debut was 6 innings, 2 runs, 1 HR and 103 pitches). But if Strasburg stays healthy, it is obvious that he has the demeanor and the electric stuff to be special. Everyone wants to see him get tested against a better line up, but that will have to wait until at least his third start because his next start is against the ineptitude that is the Cleveland Indians.

Everyone points to the zero walks during the 7 innings last night and it was impressive, but he did fall behind early in the count quite a few times, but was able to fight back with a nasty fastball that tickled the triple digits consistently, even later in the game. Combining that with a knee-buckling curve means he has the chance to light up the ball park every fifth day just like Dwight Gooden did in 1984. The unfortunate part is that the Nationals still aren’t very good and Strasburg will likely bump up against his innings limit well before the season is over, meaning the team will shut him down early.

Yet with that being said, enjoy watching this guy throw when you can – his stuff is electric and he works quickly which makes for a much more entertaining baseball game.

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The Lakers stepped up and took back home court advantage last night with a win in Game 3 over the Celtics. The streaky Ray Allen went from Finals record for 3-pointers during game 2, to one of the worst shooting performances in the history of the Finals, going 0-12 from the floor. It was obvious early that Kobe Bryant determined the Lakers were going to win the game – despite him not having a strong shooting performance. He was getting rebounds, steals, assists and hustle plays to put the Celtics on the ropes early.

Then late in the game, Derek Fisher took over. While Fisher has had a knack for hitting clutch jumpers throughout his career, who knew he would be deadly with the floaters and drives to the hoop? It has been an incredible rejuvenation for Fisher, who suddenly looks like Bianca Kajlich – not going to be a hall of famer, but a solid set of skills that can be counted on in the clutch. (Kajlich is also the ex-wife of USA soccer star Landon Donovan).

The Celtics could be in some serious trouble at this point in the series, because their offense has been horrific and their defense has been good, but not good enough. Like I predicted before the series, the only thing that gives them a chance to win is Ray Allen, and he is more about streaks than Frank the Tank in Old School. When Ray-Ray is shooting like Jesus Shuttlesworth, the Celtics win like in game 2. When Ray struggles or completely stinks, they lose like they did in games 1 & 3. That doesn’t seem to have the makings of a championship banner by my math. Pierce has been hideous offensively during the series, and he’s not going to suddenly break out of his slump with Ron Artest sharing his shorts. Garnett stepped up last night, but there’s a good chance that he blew any reserve energy he had and will not be able to continue at that pace.

The Lakers have a chance to step on the Celtics throats in Game 4, and you have to believe that Kobe will be fired up to prove once again that he is the best closer in the game today.

Breaking Down the NBA Finals

A quick story before getting to the NBA Finals breakdown……sitting outside having a beer at Barnacle Billy’s in Perkin’s Cove, Maine this past weekend, and the Maine version of Frank Sinatra in Vegas rolls in. He was in his mid-70’s, and looked like a pumpkin on stilts (as round as could be) with white hair and big sunglasses on. As he makes his way out to his table on the deck, every worker and regular at the place knows him, shakes his hand and they trade good natured barbs. The waitress asks about “the usual” and returns with a martini on the rocks in a plastic cup with a side glass of ice and the olives on top of the ice. The guy then proceeds to basically put on a one-man comedy show for anyone within earshot. My favorite story: “You know you get smarter when you drink, right? Well I get better at math when I drink, and last night at the bar I saw that Demi Moore and her younger boyfriend on television. So I quickly did the math and determined that if I want me a cougar like that, she’ll have to be 94 years old! A 94 year old might need oxygen to keep up with me. So maybe I should trade her in for two 47 year olds. But then I’d be the one who would need the oxygen!”

Anyway, this year’s Lakers-Celtics NBA Finals matchup has the potential to be one of the great finals matchups in a really long time. In addition to the whole traditional rivalry and supposed hatred between the fan bases (who cares? 90% of us don’t live in either city so we don’t care if Sully in Southie really hates the Lakers when he’s watching the game at O’Malley’s Pub). The reason is that these teams have a tremendous amount of star power, are playing extremely well, and have coaches that have been nearly flawless this post season. All of the starting 10 players, plus a couple of bench players (Lamar Odom, Rasheed Wallace, etc) are legit So with that said, let’s break it down by position:

PG: Rajon Rondo (Celtics) vs. Derek Fisher (Lakers)
Rondo has cranked it up again in the playoffs proving that the most obvious trait he picked up from playing with the Big 3 was how to cruise through the regular season without too much effort. Fisher stood a chance defensively against the Suns and Steve Nash, but Rondo presents problems the same way Russell Westbrook did in the opening round against the Thunder. And since the Lakers don’t want to wear out Kobe chasing Ray Allen around on the defensive end, Kobe will likely draw Rondo. Fisher has been incredibly reliable during the playoffs this year and has the faith of Kobe and Phil Jackson to take big shots if Kobe is jammed up. Rondo has the potential to be the MVP over the entire series, but Fisher has the potential to hit a game winner or two. It’s a young, unpredictable star like Miley Cyrus that has the potential to drive you crazy but also can fill an arena. EDGE: Celtics

SG: Kobe Bryant (Lakers) vs. Ray Allen (Celtics)
While there is no comparing Bryant and Allen on an absolute level, each brings an amazing legacy as one of the best at their chosen aspect of the game. For Kobe, it’s being the best closer in the game today, and with this title, he has the potential to enter the discussion among the top 3-5 guards of all-time. Allen is one of the best pure shooters in the game and has evolved into as clutch and deadly in the post season as Reggie Miller was in his prime. Kobe wants to avenge the 2008 loss and move himself another notch closer to Jordan’s 6 titles. He is by far the best player in the series and has proven that even though everyone is so enamored with LeBron James and his next employer, Kobe is the best player in the game. If the Lakers win, it will be because Bryant carries them again.

Allen will likely be the key to the Celtics offense in this series. With Bryant slowing Rondo, Artest stopping Pierce (along with Pierce expending too much energy guarding Bryant), and Gasol shutting down Garnett, the offensive burden will fall to Allen. He is very capable of carrying that torch, but he has had a few cold streaks in the playoffs, including the early rounds of the 2008 playoffs. At the end of the day, Bryant is like Brooklyn Decker – it doesn’t matter if she’s doing cartwheels or posing by the ocean, the talent is undeniable. EDGE: Lakers

SF: Paul Pierce (Celtics) vs. Ron Artest (Lakers)
Ron Artest has truly become the modern day Dennis Rodman, without the cross-dressing. He is quirky, a unique personality, and even his own fans recoil in horror any time he lines up a shot outside of the paint. You have no idea what he’s going to do other than play complete lock down defense and rebound. And that is all the Lakers need him to do.

Paul Pierce was dubbed the greatest pure scorer in Celtics history by Bob Ryan of the Boston Globe and yet my brother and I had a discussion the other night whether he truly is a Hall of Famer. Is he underappreciated outside of Boston or overappreciated inside of Boston? Is he a compiler? He has had some great stretches in the playoffs where he has completely taken over a game, but he has never been a dominant scorer for an entire season (with the possible exception of 2001-02). His defense is solid, as evidenced by him slowing down LeBron just enough in 2008 and this year. But does he do any one thing great? His outside shot has improved over the years, but is far from reliable. His post game is adequate. He is an average rebounder. I like his game and believe that he WILL be a Hall of Famer, but the question is whether he should be a lock. While he is overdramaticIf he wins his second title this season, it does elevate him to another tier. EDGE: Celtics

PF: Pau Gasol (Lakers) vs. Kevin Garnett (Celtics)
Garnett is among the greatest power forwards to ever play the game (I rank him 3rd behind Tim Duncan and Elgin Baylor but ahead of Charles Barkley and Karl Malone), but he is running on fumes and one leg at this point of his career. He has adequately adjusted his game to be comfortable not being the focal point of the offense and remains the defensive and emotional leader of the team. He demands effort from his teammates and the Boston crowd with his primal screams or profanity-laced tirades. Yet he is overmatched against the younger Gasol who is just as comfortable defending Garnett’s mid range jumper or his post moves. Add in Gasol’s ability to pass and fill the lane on the break and he might be the second-best player in the series. If you were on the playground and choosing up teams, Bryant would be the first pick and Gasol would likely be next. (Followed by Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Garnett, Odom, Artest, Perkins, Wallace and Fisher). Gasol is the hot foreign import that revitalized the team with the well-rounded game – kind of like the addition of Mandy Drury on CNBC. EDGE: Lakers

C: Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) vs. Andrew Bynum (Lakers)
Perkins is a very solid low-post defender and capable rebounder. Bynum is athletic and would present a tough matchup for Perkins if he were healthy. Yet he’s not healthy. Neither player will be the difference maker and it’s possible that Bynum won’t be able to play through the full series. Perkins also may miss time because even his coach expects him to pick up another technical which will put him at 7 during the playoffs which warrants a one-game suspension. This is like deciding whether Lilly is more important to How I Met Your Mother than Phoebe was to Friends – both have their moments, but the shows could carry on effectively without either one. EDGE: Celtics

Bench Players
The Celtics bring in the cavalry to bang inside with Big Baby Davis and Rasheed Wallace and could potentially get a defensive option against Kobe in Tony Allen. The Lakers bring the most versatile yet most inconsistent player on either team in Lamar Odom. After Odom the Lakers bench is fairly weak – Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. Yet, when Odom is on a sugar high, he has the ability to be a match up nightmare for the Celtics and could be the difference in a game or two. He is like Carrie Underwood – he disappears for a while and you don’t think about him, but when he shows up, he reminds you that he has the complete package. EDGE: Lakers

Coaching
This edge is less of a surprise than the horrendous reviews that Sex In The City 2 has gotten. The greatest coach of all time versus a guy that was almost run out of town 3 years ago before Danny Ainge went the desperation route because his job was on the line as well. Doc Rivers has done a good job of keeping his veterans happy while the young Rondo takes the reins of the offense and he has a great defensive assistant coach (who will likely be a head coach next season). Yet he can’t compare to the Zen Master, who has already begun the mind games with his comments about Kevin Garnett. EDGE: Lakers

THE PICK
The Lakers will struggle to score consistently against the Celtics stingy defense and will need Lamar Odom to keep an extra bag of Skittles in his sock at all times. The Celtics offense will also struggle because the Lakers match up well with everyone except Ray Allen (Kobe on Rondo, Artest on Pierce & Gasol on Garnett). Can Allen continue his hot shooting and carry the Celtics to the title? I expect a tough series that is very evenly matched. And when the series is this evenly matched, what are the deciding factors? Who has the best player? Who has home court advantage? Is there a revenge factor? All of those answers are the Lakers. THE PICK: LAKERS IN SEVEN GAMES

The Effect of Moving the NFL Draft to Prime Time

The NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night and this year the structure of the draft event has changed dramatically. The draft used to have the first two rounds on Saturday followed by the remaining rounds (3-7) on Sunday. This year the NFL has decided to create more television advertising and turned the draft into a prime time affair. The first round will take place on Thursday night, the 2nd and 3rd rounds will be on Friday evening and the remaining 4th through 7th rounds will be picked on Saturday. The NFL has a good chance to take the ratings crown in primetime, because the bar isn’t that high. Networks have turned to former sitcom stars that have now aged and tried to relight that candle. Elaine Benes (Seinfeld) on The New Adventures of Old Christine, Courtney Cox (Friends) on Cougartown, and now Alyssa Milano (Who’s The Boss & Charmed) on a new show called “Romantically Challenged” which debuted a few nights ago. Fairly entertaining, but unlikely to last long. Anway, where was I? Oh yeah, the NFL draft………You can debate the reasoning behind the move to prime time if you want, but the better question is what will be the impact on the teams and the players hoping to be drafted?

Side Note: While typing that paragraph, Ray Allen just hit another couple 3-pointers from the corner against the Heat. Dear Miami – you might want to guard him in that corner. Don’t think a game (potentially a series) like this against Boston where Dwayne Wade is the only guy competing won’t have an impact on where he signs this summer as a free agent. Chicago is competing against the Cavs. The Heat is not. Getting blown out by a Celtics team without Garnett where guys not named Wade went 18-51 (31%) is awful. Quentin Richardson (2-7 and a -33 +/-), please check your own manhood before calling anyone else an actress.

Increased Trades
The first and most obvious effect will be the increase of trading that will take place, particularly on the nights between draft action. When each day is complete, the teams will be able to regroup all of their management and scouts and evaluate where the team stands after the moves they made that day. They will also be able to break down the available players for the upcoming rounds, and target players they want to be in position to get. They now have that time over night to talk to all the teams they need to in order to secure a higher draft spot to get the guy they want. It’s like you’re out at the bar, and you head to Q-doba to meet up with your regular hook up around 1:30 in the morning. When you get there, you see her, understand what you have and realize there was a Pink look-alike at the bar. You immediately hail a cab, sacrifice the burrito and cab fare to go back to find Pink-light because she fits a need for you and isn’t a fit for the others still at the bar. Last year on the Saturday night after the first two rounds, the Jets decided they wanted Shonn Greene and make a move to get the first pick on Sunday morning, which they used to draft the running back who will be their 2010 starter. Expect to see a ton of that activity late Thursday night after the first round is complete and again on Friday night after the first 3 rounds are over.

Players in Demand
The other benefit goes to those players that are the guys that have slid lower than expected. Suddenly if Colt McCoy is still available when Thursday night wraps up, will a team go back to their war room and make the decision that they need to have him? What about a team like the 49ers? If they draft an offensive lineman with the 13th pick, would it be worth it to trade their 3rd and 5th round picks to get their potential QB of the future? And that plays out great for Colt McCoy because instead of some team waiting back and having him get selected with the 45th pick, he now goes around the 35th pick, which is a bigger contract. Yeah, maybe I just made another excuse to post a picture of Colt McCoy’s fiance….are you complaining? This time I didn’t bother to include Colt in the picture.

And finally, just to wrap up the draft thoughts, there is this awesome video of Rich Eisen of the NFL Network running the 40 yard dash at the combine in Indy. They then overlay the running of some of the top prospects to see how quickly Eisen falls behind and how much slower he is…..especially when they compare him to the 300+ pound defensive line prospect Terrence Cody. (fastforward to the 2:30 mark for the best parts)