Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- I love the folly of people “grading” the team’s NFL draft within 24 hours of the draft ending. It is entertaining to see which teams were winners and losers in the mind of journalists, but the reality is that there is no telling who had a good draft for the next 3 years. There is no telling whether any of these guys are going to live up to expectations and where the sleepers will come from. You wouldn’t judge a movie based purely on reading the book it was based on, right? You need to see the movie and then make a decision. So, yes, as of right now it looked like the Raiders had a successful draft (especially if you include the trade for Jason Campbell to play QB), but then again, it looked like they had strong drafts when they took JaMarcus Russell or Darren McFadden right after they were drafted. Speaking of the book-movie reference, I read the book Up In The Air and saw the movie and there is almost no correlation between the two. I understand that there are always some differences when they make the movie, but it seemed that the only thing the movie and book had in common was a guy who was traveling constantly and going for 1 million frequent flyer miles. I actually liked the movie better than the book, and it wasn’t just because of Anna Kendrick or Vera Farmiga.

- How impressive has Jim Schwartz been in remaking the Lions, at least on paper? Their offense is ready to explode with Matthew Stafford maturing and already having one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson. They signed Nate Burleson to play opposite Megatron and traded for Tony Scheffler to be the tight end safety for their young quarterback. Then they added Jahvid Best for some explosiveness out of the backfield and if their line can give Stafford some time, they should be able to put up points. Then defensively they drafted Suh to go with recently signed veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch (who excelled under Schwartz with the Titans) to anchor the defensive line. They have the potential to be the third best team in the NFC North, behind only the Vikings and Packers, but well ahead of the Bears. Maybe it’s the new logo that’s changing everything?

- Can someone please get an ice pack for Dwyane Wade’s back and shoulders? He is single-handedly carrying the entire Heat franchise to keep them alive in the playoffs. His performance on Sunday was absolutely incredible in staving off elimination for at least another couple of days. At one point during the game they put up a stat that he had scored 1/3 of his teams total points in the series and was shooting almost 60 percent from the floor….as a guard!! I mentioned it before, but if you’re Wade, how in the world can you resign in Miami this summer? His teammates are worthless. I don’t want to see it, but Wade in Chicago would be a nice landing spot next to Derrick Rose, Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. If LeBron James is Superman (and he put on his own impressive showing Sunday with a ho-hum triple-double), then Wade must be Batman.

- Even though Colt McCoy slid even further in the draft than Jimmy Clausen, I think McCoy is in a better situation. McCoy has only a veteran turnover machine in front of him in Cleveland, and will get to be tutored by Mike Holmgren who has a tremendous record with quarterbacks. Clausen, on the other hand, goes to a Carolina team that will be starting a young guy in Matt Moore and will be coached by a lame duck coach, John Fox in the final year of his contract. While Clausen may be able to beat out Moore, his situation reminds me of the situation his former Notre Dame buddy Brady Quinn went through in Cleveland. Quinn came in only having to compete with Derek Anderson under a coach in Romeo Crennel that had already used up all the slack in his leash. So Crennel didn’t have the ability to be patient to allow Quinn to mature and when they brought in a new coaching staff, there was no reason to keep someone else’s pick.

HATE

- The Lakers effort against the Thunder this weekend was laughable. Kobe only took 12 shots in game 4, almost like he decided to take the night off knowing they only had to win their home games. Kevin Durant was the real deal, posting 21 points and 19 rebounds in game 3 and then another impressive outing to tie the series 2-2 on Saturday. Can the Thunder win the series? It’s still about as likely as Big Ben getting an endorsement deal from Disney. More importantly it has shown that the Lakers are extremely vulnerable to be beaten by an experienced team in the later rounds.

- Taylor Mays pretty much solidified why Pete Carroll didn’t draft him. I’ve never had a hard time taking shots at Carroll for being a jag off, but in this instance, I think he’s in the clear. Mays was drafted by the 49ers and claimed that Carroll lied to him about wanting to draft him and complaining that he was let down by his former coach. Listen, Taylor, maybe if you put as much effort into improving as you do to whining, you would have been drafted earlier. However every report out there said that Earl Thomas (and others) were better safeties than you because you don’t wrap up, you don’t have great closing speed and your footwork is lazy. Mays’ complaints carry about as much weight as if J-Woww would whine that she only gets attention for her chest. Well, duh.

- It was really hard to watch the ABC halftime reports with Rick Reilly watching the Nuggets game with George Karl as he goes through treatment for throat cancer. Karl looks like he has aged about 15 years since he was last on the sidelines and you can see the pain as he watches the game. Karl is a fighter and continues to do battle against the illness, and I have no doubt that he will persevere, but it was difficult to watch him struggle to take his shots, medication and then have to sit there helplessly watch his team play disjointed and fall to the edge of elimination by the Jazz. Keep fighting and get better George.

The Effect of Moving the NFL Draft to Prime Time

The NFL Draft kicks off Thursday night and this year the structure of the draft event has changed dramatically. The draft used to have the first two rounds on Saturday followed by the remaining rounds (3-7) on Sunday. This year the NFL has decided to create more television advertising and turned the draft into a prime time affair. The first round will take place on Thursday night, the 2nd and 3rd rounds will be on Friday evening and the remaining 4th through 7th rounds will be picked on Saturday. The NFL has a good chance to take the ratings crown in primetime, because the bar isn’t that high. Networks have turned to former sitcom stars that have now aged and tried to relight that candle. Elaine Benes (Seinfeld) on The New Adventures of Old Christine, Courtney Cox (Friends) on Cougartown, and now Alyssa Milano (Who’s The Boss & Charmed) on a new show called “Romantically Challenged” which debuted a few nights ago. Fairly entertaining, but unlikely to last long. Anway, where was I? Oh yeah, the NFL draft………You can debate the reasoning behind the move to prime time if you want, but the better question is what will be the impact on the teams and the players hoping to be drafted?

Side Note: While typing that paragraph, Ray Allen just hit another couple 3-pointers from the corner against the Heat. Dear Miami – you might want to guard him in that corner. Don’t think a game (potentially a series) like this against Boston where Dwayne Wade is the only guy competing won’t have an impact on where he signs this summer as a free agent. Chicago is competing against the Cavs. The Heat is not. Getting blown out by a Celtics team without Garnett where guys not named Wade went 18-51 (31%) is awful. Quentin Richardson (2-7 and a -33 +/-), please check your own manhood before calling anyone else an actress.

Increased Trades
The first and most obvious effect will be the increase of trading that will take place, particularly on the nights between draft action. When each day is complete, the teams will be able to regroup all of their management and scouts and evaluate where the team stands after the moves they made that day. They will also be able to break down the available players for the upcoming rounds, and target players they want to be in position to get. They now have that time over night to talk to all the teams they need to in order to secure a higher draft spot to get the guy they want. It’s like you’re out at the bar, and you head to Q-doba to meet up with your regular hook up around 1:30 in the morning. When you get there, you see her, understand what you have and realize there was a Pink look-alike at the bar. You immediately hail a cab, sacrifice the burrito and cab fare to go back to find Pink-light because she fits a need for you and isn’t a fit for the others still at the bar. Last year on the Saturday night after the first two rounds, the Jets decided they wanted Shonn Greene and make a move to get the first pick on Sunday morning, which they used to draft the running back who will be their 2010 starter. Expect to see a ton of that activity late Thursday night after the first round is complete and again on Friday night after the first 3 rounds are over.

Players in Demand
The other benefit goes to those players that are the guys that have slid lower than expected. Suddenly if Colt McCoy is still available when Thursday night wraps up, will a team go back to their war room and make the decision that they need to have him? What about a team like the 49ers? If they draft an offensive lineman with the 13th pick, would it be worth it to trade their 3rd and 5th round picks to get their potential QB of the future? And that plays out great for Colt McCoy because instead of some team waiting back and having him get selected with the 45th pick, he now goes around the 35th pick, which is a bigger contract. Yeah, maybe I just made another excuse to post a picture of Colt McCoy’s fiance….are you complaining? This time I didn’t bother to include Colt in the picture.

And finally, just to wrap up the draft thoughts, there is this awesome video of Rich Eisen of the NFL Network running the 40 yard dash at the combine in Indy. They then overlay the running of some of the top prospects to see how quickly Eisen falls behind and how much slower he is…..especially when they compare him to the 300+ pound defensive line prospect Terrence Cody. (fastforward to the 2:30 mark for the best parts)

Breaking Down the QB Prospects

As I mentioned yesterday, I am not the type to do a mock draft post. There are too many variables, too many trades and too many linemen that all I would be doing is aggregating the mock drafts I’ve seen on other more informed sites and then guessing to fill in the blanks. Do we really know what the Redskins are going to do with the 4th pick? And there is a pretty good chance that what Kansas City does at #5 could change dramatically based on what the Skins do ahead of them or if they get a godfather offer from Cleveland at #7, etc. It’s not worth the time or effort. I’m all about being efficient. Well, I’m also all about a good beer, a close sports game and pictures of Carrie Underwood – but you already knew that.

Yet I remain extremely intrigued by the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft, especially after watching Jon Gruden dissect them. So with the caveat that I don’t have access to game film, I have only seen each guy play a handful of times, and I’ve seen the Gruden special and the SportsCenter highlights, here are my thoughts on the top quarterback prospects:

Sam Bradford
Appears to be a very cerebral quarterback with the ability to correctly read a defense and throw an extremely accurate ball. Obviously in all the meetings and pro days, you can’t knock him down on his shoulder to make sure he’ll get up. But he looks noticeably bigger now than he did during the season (he said he’s gained 15-20 pounds of muscle) and he’s going to need it. He doesn’t seem to have a “commanding presence” which could be a concern for his leadership ability when he has to get in the huddle with guys 10 years older than him and command their respect. Matt Ryan had that confidence and swagger, and I’m not sure Bradford does.

Overall Prediction/Guess: A solid pro to build your team around and worth the #1 pick for the Rams who desperately need a QB and a face for the franchise – potentially a Kerry Collins clone. Not spectacular, but Collins has been in the league for 15 years, never led the league in passing yards but finished in the top 10 four times and has been a pretty good locker room guy. And if you exclude the record in Oakland during 2004-2005, he is 2 games over .500 as a starter. Obviously here’s to hoping Bradford doesn’t have the alcohol problem that plagued Collins.

Jimmy Clausen
Clausen looks smallish but has a strong arm and improved his accuracy considerably during his last season at Notre Dame. He definitely has the swagger and leadership qualities to play quarterback in the NFL, not the least of which is his toughness and ability to play through pain. That will gain him some locker room credibility. He also played in an NFL-style system, so the offense won’t surprise him. The speed and athleticism of NFL defenders will though, and his penchant for getting sloppy and making bad decisions will need to be curtailed. Seriously, look at the picture. It’s the definition of bad decision making. Then again, that might be the best available at Notre Dame.

Overall Prediction/Guess: Get ready for the rollercoaster ride whoever takes Clausen. I liken him to Jake Plummer, a good athlete with the will to win and an attitude to never give up. Plummer was maddening because he had the skills but continually turned the ball over, which is why he had 161 INTs to go with 161 TDs in his career. All that said, if he’s there at #13 when the 49ers are on the board, I think they should jump on him like Big Ben on an underager.

Colt McCoy
McCoy is the most intriguing quarterback in the draft from my perspective. He lacks the ideal NFL quarterback height, but he has a rocket for an arm and is stout and jacked. He also has the leadship, fire and personality to command the respect of his teammates. He’s a gamer and appears to be a student of the game, understanding the need for film study and the need to continually refine his game and dissect how the defense is making adjustments. He’s a proven winner and experienced at the college level, allowing him to mature and be ready for the next level.

Overall Prediction/Guess: McCoy has the potential to be the best quarterback in this draft. Gruden kept comparing him to Drew Brees, and I think that is a very good comparison. The other comparison that I see is Jeff Garcia – another undersized passer who was athletic and among the best quarterbacks in the league from 2000-2002.

Tim Tebow
Tebow is the hardest working quarterback and possibly overall player that will be in the draft. As much as I find fake the squeaky clean perfect all-American image, he does genuinely come across as a good kid. He has a ton of work to do if he wants to play quarterback, and has already completely remade his throwing motion. However the question is whether he will be able to maintain that new motion when Ray Lewis has a bead on him. In addition, he needs to learn to take a snap from under center, read the defense while backpedaling or run playaction. It is a lot to ask of a kid, but Tebow seems determined to make it happen.

Overall Prediction/Guess: I think Tebow will be a decent value pick…..in the 5th round. However, someone is going to overreach and take him in the late second or early 3rd round. He’s a project that will need 3 years on the bench before he’s ready to ever see the field, but could be effective at some point. I don’t actually see a good comparison for Tebow, but possibly the ceiling would be Mark Brunell. An athletic lefty that toiled on the bench for a while before getting his shot and being successful.

The (Burger) Kings of the NFL

Mike Shanahan has been hired to bring a Lombardi trophy back to the Washington Redskins. Mike Holmgren was hired to do the same in Cleveland. Both guy have a big name, Super Bowl victories and adoring media heaping praise and expectations upon them. Holmgren was given the title equivalent to “Grand Poobah” with the power to hire (and fire) a GM and head coach, and ultimately control all player personnel decisions, much like the roll Bill Parcells has in Miami. Shanahan has been given the title of “Executive Vice President” in addition to head coach, meaning he as the final authority on all personnel decisions (cue the Office Space quote: “So what is it that you would say you do here, GM Bruce Allen?”). But there is no reason to expect great success from either guy, and not because of the situations they are entering. Both men are extremely overrated, and have failed when given the power they so craved. Both the Redskins and Browns franchises paid dearly for the big name and expect results that they likely will not see.

MIKE SHANAHAN

Shanahan was known as “Coach Teflon” in Denver because no matter how many mistakes he made, he was always able to lean on those back-to-back Super Bowl titles with John Elway and Terrell Davis. A hefty majority of his success can be tied to the three year stretch from 1996-98, when he went 39-9 (.813 winning percentage) during the regular season and 7-1 in the post season. Then John Elway retired, Davis got hurt, and starting in 2002 he made a power play to get final say in all personnel matters.

Outside of that 3 year run, his record is 107-89 (.546), which is still above Ray Rhodes or Romeo Crennel, but he was 1-4 in the playoffs during those 11+ seasons. The biggest anchor to his coaching success? His GM skills. He was so arrogant and stubborn he thought he could win with Jake Plummer and Brian Griese, and believed he would be able to harness Maurice Clarett - drafting him about 8 rounds too early, and there are only 7 rounds in the draft. He also signed multiple defensive linemen from the Cleveland Browns - linemen who had failed on a horrendous team - and somehow believed they would not be lazy and slow in the thin air in Denver. Among his other notable draft failures were Jarvis Moss and Ashlie Lelie.

Again, my point is not that he’s a bad coach. It’s that he’s a bad personnel guy. And yet Daniel Snyder and the Redskins were all too eager to whip out his wallet and give Shanahan full control over the football operations. It’s as confusing to me as why he always has that orange tinge to his skin - does he own a tanning bed like Pauly D from the Jersey Shore? It’s not that sunny in Denver.

MIKE HOLMGREN

As for the Big Show Mike Holmgren, he was given hired as the football guru in Cleveland to turn around the franchise that has 2 winning seasons since being reincarnated in 1999. They have blown the #1 pick in the draft twice on Tim Couch & Courtney Brown (later signed by Mike Shanahan to fix Denver’s defense). So now they have their football guy - a guy with a Super Bowl ring and 3 Super Bowl appearances - to get things corrected and bring the franchise back to its hey-day when they would get knocked out of the playoffs by John Elway or a crushing fumble every year. But is Holmgren really the right guy to make personnel decisions? Like Shanahan, Holmgren is a great coach, but he does not have aa strong track record with power/personnel.

He had tremendous success in Green Bay as the head coach, utilizing the players that legendary GM Ron Wolf would provide him with - Brett Favre (also Mark Brunnell, Ty Detmer, Matt Hassel beck & Aaron Brooks - all of whom were NFL starters for multiple years), LeRoy Butler, Santana Dotson, Reggie White, Desmond Howard, Keith Jackson, Andre Rison, & the best o-line in the NFL, etc. He then moved on to Seattle (costing the Packers the ‘97 Super Bowl to Shanahan’s Broncos by shortchanging his preparation as he prepared for the move to the Pacific Northwest. Yes, I‘m still bitter) where he was given the ultimate power over everything football.
Holmgren was the coach and GM with the Seahawks from 1999 until 2002, when he was fired from the GM position, but retained as the coach. Interestingly enough, the lone Super Bowl appearance with the Seahawks came in 2005, 3 years after Holmgren lost his personnel power. Coincidence? During his 4 year run as King of Seattle he had 6 first round picks, with only Shaun Alexander and Steve Hutchinson being impact players. His big risks and misses included Koren Robinson, Jerramy Stevens and Chris McIntosh. After he lost his GM title, the team drafted Marcus Trufant, Ken Hamlin, Michael Boulware and Lofa Tatupu, all key players on that Super Bowl team.

So in the end, Cleveland and Washington need to temper their expectations a little and know that they paid for big name great coaches. Unfortunately for Cleveland, only one of them is coaching. And both of them have their hands in the personnel cookie jar, which hasn’t worked out very well in the past.

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Given the news about Warren Beatty’s bedroom “success rate” together with Tiger’s tales and the legendary Wilt number - no, not the 100 point game, this is a pretty funny take on the Biggest Studs out there. Here’s the best excerpt: “There should be an adjusted OPS+ type formula. Degree of difficulty is huge. Being an absolute dictator (Castro), having women paid to have sex with you (Ron Jeremy) or being in a rock band whose apex came at the height of the hard drugs era and before AIDS (Gene Simmons) is like being a left-handed pull hitter in Yankee Stadium.”

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I still like Alabama tonight to win the national championship and cover the spread. It’s a great storyline to have Colt McCoy (and his talented girlfriend) go out a champion after his incredible college career. Yet Texas does not have the offensive line to give Colt the time he needs. Colt said it himself, already telling his offensive line the game is on them and if they give him time, they will win. I also think the Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy is still underrated and will play smart enough to bring home the title. Expect him to then get drafted a little higher than he should - remember Brodie Croyle? - and end up as a career back up in the NFL.

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