Friday, October 23, 2009

Degenerate Friday!! Week 7 Picks

A couple quick links before getting to this week’s picks….

This is a great trivia site to kill tons of time with random useless sports knowledge.

Awesome clip of Brett Myers getting rejected by who I assume is his wife after their NLCS victory – she obviously dislikes the smell of booze or cigars.

The whole Bubble Boy story is just a scary comment on what reality television has done to some people in America. That Heene dude is a complete lunatic and should be locked up, though I’m not sure what’s worse for those kids – to not have their dad around, or to have that nutjob around. And how did he think this would help them get a reality show?

Another .500 week last week, going 7-7, and I just can’t get off the Even Steven fence. So this week, in hopes of getting a big winning week, no tiers, no categories, and no reminiscing about movies, quotes or songs. Just straight picks to take your bookie to the cleaners and buy that even bigger television and faster car. Ah, who am I kidding? Like Ricky Williams and the ganja, I’m just putting the gimmicks aside for a week.

Usual disclaimers……recreational use, home team in CAPS, etc…….

Colts (-13) over RAMS (Craptastic Game of the Week)
They couldn’t have made this spread big enough. The Colts are coming off a bye week and get to play the worst team in the league before an intriguing matchup with the 49ers the following week. Manning puts it in cruise control after the first quarter and lets Addai & Brown clean it up for the rest of the game. Rams can’t score enough points to cover with their pathetic offense.

PANTHERS (-7) over Bills
This might be the worst quarterback matchup in the league with turnover machine Jake Delhomme going up against Harvard kid Ryan Fitzpatrick. Panthers will pound the ball on the ground against the Bills’ league-worst rushing defense, giving up more than 180 yards/game. The first Steve Smith remains an afterthought and won’t be needed to beat the Bills.

Patriots (-14.5) over Buccaneers (in London)
The last two years, the game in London has been a 3 point game, but they haven’t seen a team as bad as the Bucs. Belichick has his team in business mode, which typically leads to destruction and embarrassment for inferior opponents. Unless Brady, Moss and Welker get too distracted Keeley Hazell, this shouldn’t be close.

Packers (-9) over BROWNS
The Browns have covered the past two weeks, but have been ravaged by the flu this week. Add to that their leading tackler being out for the season, and the fact that they still have Derek Anderson at quarterback. Packers handled a poor Lions team last week, and if they can keep Rodgers upright, they should not have a problem winning this game by 2 scores.

Eagles (-7) over REDSKINS
Even if the Redskins cover or win this game, I’ll feel comfortable with picking the Eagles. I’ll always take a team that has something to prove after puking on themselves the previous week (sorry Donovan) over a team that brought in a consultant two weeks ago, and now handed him the play-calling responsibilities and is trying to get their head coach to quit.

CHIEFS (+4.5) over Chargers
Chargers beat the Chiefs by one point in both meetings last year, and Cassell should be able to put some points on the board against the porous Chargers defense. Norv “Mr. Roper” Turner continues to underachieve, and the Chargers have the worst rushing offense in the league, averaging less than 58 yards/game. And LT has missed practice this week either due to the flu or the “f-you for taking me out at the goalline last week” virus.

Jets (-6) over RAIDERS
This is one of the toughest games to pick this week because no one knows which team will show up on either sideline. The Jets that rolled through the first 3 games this year with limited turnovers and stout defense or the team that stunk the past 3 weeks? The Raiders that looked competitive in week 1 and stumped the Eagles last week or the team that looked like a mess in between? Now that Coach Cable isn’t going to be arrested for assault, the Raiders can just play football. Unfortunately, they still have JaMarcus Russell at QB and that’s enough to tilt it to the Jets.

GIANTS (-7) over Cardinals
Traditionally the Cardinals coming east have fared about as well as Tupac making a trip to New York. But this is a night game, so the time change should be muffled. The Cards seem to have found some of their groove from last year, and with the Giants secondary banged up, they should put points on the board. However, the Giants have something to prove after getting lit up last week by the Saints, and playing at home will help them rebound big.

49ers (+3) over TEXANS
Follow the pattern with the Texans this year: Loss, Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. That means this is the week for a loss, which has to make Gary Kubiak feel like he’s sitting in a hillbilly hottub. 49ers have had two weeks to prepare to slow down the NFL leader in TDs, Matt Schaub. Crabtree will start and it won’t take much to be the most dangerous WR for the Niners.

Saints (-6) over DOLPHINS
The trendy pick is the Dolphins because they’re coming off a bye and the wildcat will run through the Saints defense. However, the Dolphins defense is going to get lit up like Pat Summerall in the announcing booth with John Madden. Remember how the Colts handled the Dolphins while barely possessing the ball, winning by 4? The Saints offense is more potent than the Colts and the Saints defense is better than the Colts. Saints roll ‘em up like Ricky Williams in the off-season.

Bears (+1) over BENGALS
The Bengals can’t handle success. They’re the Jessica Simpson of the NFL – as soon as they get a boyfriend and some fans and start to convince you that they have figured things out, they turn around and get a little too comfortable, stop trying and eventually prove that they are still unpredictable and completely crazy. Cedric Benson has something to prove against his former team, but the Bears will be ready and without Antwan Odom, the Bengals won’t be able to stop Cutler and Forte.

Falcons (+4) over COWBOYS (LOCK OF THE WEEK)
The logic for the Cowboys is that they’re coming off a bye (league average is 53% winners coming off their byes), are at home, and the Falcons are coming off a night game. Wade Phillips is 5-2 in his career coming off byes, which doesn’t compare to Andy Reid’s 11-0, but is impressive. Yet, the bottom line is that the Cowboys aren’t that good. Do we really believe Miles Austin is a #1 WR after one game – against the 1-5 Chiefs!?!?? Ryan and the Falcons are the best value of the week.

STEELERS (-4.5) over Vikings
Steelers have become a dominant passing team and the Vikings secondary got lit up by Joe Flacco before Antoine Wingfield was injured. Vikings needed a lucky break last week against the Ravens and barely squeeked by the 49ers two weeks earlier. Going into Pittsburgh against the defending champs is a tough order for anyone, and Peterson will find tough sledding against the Steelers defense that is allowing the second-fewest yards per game on the ground.

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