Friday, February 5, 2010

Degenerate Friday - Super Bowl

Before getting to the game and the gambling, a quick story…….a long while back we covered a few “rules” for the gym like don’t wear sweatpants, use a towel, wear sandals in the shower, etc. One thing we didn’t mention, which I never thought had to be mentioned. Yesterday after I work out, I head into the locker room and as I get close to the lockers, there is a Mexican guy sitting on one of the benches when I hear that unmistakeable sound of a nail clippers!! The guy is clipping his finger nails in the middle of the locker room, with no towel to catch the loose nails or anything!! Talk about disgusting. So of course, I proceed to give him the dirtiest of looks, and shake my head in disgust while muttering “unbelievable” under my breath. I then proceed to spin my lock to get in my locker...

Unfortunately for me, the story doesn’t quite end there. I have a blue lock for the gym – no reason other than that’s what they had at Duane Reade when I bought it years ago. Never gave it a second thought, but over the years I realized it’s kind of nice because you never have to worry about which locker you choose because the blue stands out from the standard black lock. So I go to that blue lock and put in my combination and the lock doesn’t open. I try it again, and nothing. Strange. Keep in mind I had just made a fairly public display of disgust at the nail clipping d-bag. After a fourth failed attempt, I’m starting to feel like I’m the subject of a prank. I look up and realize…..I’m at the wrong locker. My lock (which is slightly beat up) is actually about 5 lockers to the left. Someone else has the exact same blue lock. After making a mini scene about this gross dude, I’m now meekly sliding over to the correct locker assuming that he is getting a little chuckle out of my stupidity.

Oh, and isn’t it typical Los Angeles Clippers style that Mike Dunleavy steps down as coach and the interim coach is a guy named Kim? I mean, it’s worse than a boy named Sue because at least Sue can use the Johnny Cash song. Kim Hughes is the interim coach of the Clippers now. Random fact: Kim played for the University of Wisconsin from 1970 to 1974.

Time to break down the big game on Sunday and answer the question of what is the best bet of the weekend. In most columns you’ll see matchups broken down with the Colts offense against the Saints offense and then a slight advantage to one team or the other. That’s a waste of time because the Colts offense is not competing with the Saints offense. Let’s break it down correctly…………using Wedding Crashers quotes.

When the Colts have the ball….

Jeremy Grey: Tattoo on the lower back? Might as well be a bullseye.

Peyton Manning is the Wedding Crasher looking to find the tattoo on the lower back of the Saints defense. The Saints needed to blitz to get half of their sacks during the season (17 of their 35 sacks came on blitzes) which means they cannot get enough pressure from just their front four. If you blitz Peyton, he’s smart enough to adjust and has a connection with his receivers allowing him to quickly dump the ball off safely or hit the big play where there isn’t enough coverage. I was going to use the quote with Jeremy Gray (Vince Vaughn) calling out for a “hot route” but the difference is the Colts offense knows exactly what hot route Peyton calls. Darren Sharper is a ballhawk, but can be beaten (as he has been repeatedly during his career) because he overruns plays and bites on fakes trying to make a big play. That will leave the secondary exposed and vulnerable to the big play. In the AFC Championship I thought Pierre Garcon would be the key receiver threat (yeah, pat myself on the back for that one) and in this game I think it’s going to be Dallas Clark. The Saints linebackers, Jonathan Vilma, Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle are not going to be able to stay with Clark. ADVANTAGE: Colts

When the Saints have the ball…

John Beckwith: Claire's mom just made me grab her hooters.
Jeremy Grey: Well snap out of it! What, a hot older women made you feel her cans? Stop crying like a little girl.
John Beckwith: I wasn't crying like a little girl.
Jeremy Grey: Why don't you try getting jacked off under the table in front of the whole damn family and have some real problems, jackass. Hey, what were they like anyway? They looked pretty good, are they real? Are they built for speed or comfort? What'd you do with them? Motorboat? You play the motorboat? You motorboatin son of a bitch! You old sailor you! Where is she? She still in the house?

The Saints offense is built for speed and comfort. When Drew Brees is on his game, he is among the top quarterbacks in the league and can light up a scoreboard like Sack Lodge lit up Jeremy during the family football game. Yet Brees did not appear to be extremely accurate during the NFC Championship game, which is concerning given that the Super Bowl will be played on grass where his receivers will be half a step slower. In addition to the mismatch of Brees against a young Colts secondary that relies upon zones more than tight coverage, the Saints have the ability to pound the ball on the ground. Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas should be able to grind out some tough yards, which could open up the deep ball for Colston or open up space for Reggie Bush. Bush has the potential to make an impact with his running, receiving or kick returns, and will be the determining factor for the Saints offense. ADVANTAGE: Saints

Colts Coach Caldwell vs. Saints Coach Sean Payton

Bratty Kid: I just want a bicycle!
Jeremy Grey: Why... why are you yelling at me?
Bratty Kid: Make me a bicycle, clown!
Jeremy Grey: All right, I'm going to make you a bicycle. But I don't want to make you a bicycle.
Bratty Kid: Shut your mouth, funny guy, and make it.
Jeremy Grey: Take that, you hyena, don't say thank you.

No one really knows how good of a coach Jim Caldwell is because everyone assumes Peyton is completely running the team. However, he has managed the team well to get past his decision to rest his starters and forgo a shot at a perfect season. Every player wanted to go for it, yet he has not allowed that to be a distraction from the ultimate goal of a championship. So while it may appear that Peyton tells Caldwell to make him a balloon bicycle, the team does seem to respect him. Sean Payton has spent the week being the “other” Payton involved in the Super Bowl, which is a shame because he is truly one of the best and brightest young coaches in the league. He is completely in sync with Drew Brees and has endeared himself to the New Orleans fanbase like no coach other than Rex Ryan in New York. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is a blitzing machine but will have his hands full trying to mix it up against Manning. And unfortunately, his big mouth may have cost the team because now the officials will be ultrasensitive to any “remember me” shots his team puts on the Colts QB, and that penalty could potentially extend a drive or lead to points. I’m favoring Payton over Caldwell, but Williams mouth closes the gap to closer than it should be. ADVANTAGE: Saints

Colts Fans vs. Saints Fans

Jeremy Grey: I'm sure you'd love to be free, maybe go out and meet some Latin guy that can dance, grind up on you, make you feel dangerous but also safe. And how about you? Don't you want to get inside Chastity without having to wonder if everyone's gonna find out?
John Beckwith: God, wouldn't that be sweet?
Jeremy Grey: Wouldn't that be nice? And have some Latin guy sweating all over you, talking to you in languages you don't understand, needing you, wanting you, taking you?
John Beckwith: All we're trying to say is, put your swords away for a second. Let's finish this and let's move on.
Jeremy Grey: Get out there and get some strange ass.

Let’s see, the wild, hard-partying Mardi Gras crowd from New Orleans against the Midwestern wholesomeness of the Colts. And since the Colts were just in Miami for the Super Bowl in 2006, it’s likely that not as many fans make the trek back down to Miami. I’m expecting there to be doublt the number of Saints fans relative to the Colts fans. And let’s not kid ourselves the parties that are present in Miami are much more in line with those in New Orleans than they are to those in Indianapolis. The Saints fans are the long-suffering group that invented the paper bags on their heads to watch the Aints lose over and over again. It is easy to root for the Saints because of that long and sad history. The Colts have been the best team during the decade (in number of wins) and won a Super Bowl just a few years back, so they will not be the crowd favorites. Americans love an underdog story, and the Saints are the underdog story. What a shame for the Saints that they finally make the Super Bowl and their favorite historical quarterback, Archie and their hometown kid who made it good, Eli, have to root against them because of Peyton Manning. The Colts at least gained Kendra Willkinson when they signed Hank Baskett to their bench, so they have that going for them, which is nice. ADVANTAGE: Saints

The Pick….

John Beckwith: I'd like to be pimps from Oakland or cowboys from Arizona but it's not Halloween. Grow up Peter Pan, Count Chocula.

COLTS (-5) over Saints
I want to root for the Saints, I really do. I also want to be a pimp from Oakland or a cowboy from Arizona. It's just not reality. I like Drew Brees and the way he plays the game. I like Sean Payton and his no nonsense approach similar to the always effective Bill Parcells. The Saints have weapons on offense with Colston, Henderson and Meachem complimenting Reggie Bush. Yet at the end of the day, the experience of the Colts will be the defining factor as much as Peyton Manning. The Saints will be overwhelmed when they step on the field and it will take a couple series for them to find their comfort zone. Unfortunately for them, Manning could have the Colts up 10-0 before the Saints find that groove. I like the Colts to win 37-27.

Other Bets:

Over 57 total points
There will be points, and without Freeney, the Saints will put at least 28 on the board, which makes the over achievable.

Jersey # of the first TD: Over 25.5
This is a bet on the Colts to score first. If the Saints score, it will likely be under (Brees – 9, Colston- 12, Meachem-17, Henderson-19, Bell-21, Thomas-23, Bush-25). Yet I expect the Colts to get on the board early (Addai-29, D. Brown-31, Wayne-80, Garcon-85, Clark-44) – and it won’t be Collie (#17) or Peyton (#18) on a keeper.

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