Degenerate Friday! 2nd Half Predictions

Since my baseball futures bet of the Mariners went so well in the first half of the season, I figured I’d make some predictions for the second half of the season. I mean, I believe I wrote that the addition of Milton Bradley combined with the veteran leadership of Ken Griffey Jr. would carry the M’s offense. Yeah, that didn’t work out all that well – it’s hard to lead when you’re sleeping in the clubhouse and retiring before the all-star break, and it’s hard to provide offensive punch when you’re taking time off for mental instability. Anyway, let’s hope my second half thoughts can burst on the scene like Jen Brown – the next Erin Andrews chosen to be the ESPN sideline princess during college football season. She seems to have all the assets, understands her role and judging by her outfit at the ESPY’s, is not afraid of the limelight.

AL Playoff Teams:
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Rangers
AL Wildcard: Red Sox

It’s a pretty boring picture in the AL, without many surprises. The Yankees have the best team in baseball, with a pitching staff capable of carrying them through even without their potent offensive line up. It’s a bad sign when you know that they will be involved before the trading deadline and all they are looking for is middle relief or set up help in the bullpen. It’s like having the assets of Brooklyn Decker and only having to worry about finding the right dress for the ESPY’s to showcase her talent – it’s not really fair to anyone else around.

The Red Sox have been fighting the injury bug all season and the continued absence of Dustin Pedroia will hamper the offense as they try to stay with the Rays for the wildcard. If they can get him and Josh Beckett back healthy and effective, they will reel in the Rays and pass them for the last playoff spot. The Sox pitching with Lester, Lackey and a healthy Beckett could make them a nightmare in the playoffs if they can qualify.

The Twins will be able to outlast the Tigers & White Sox in the Central and the Rangers will run away the west with the addition of Cliff Lee. Lee can carry the Rangers to the AL Championship Series and gives them a fighting chance with his dominance of the Yankees. Unfortunately the Yankees veterans will prove too much for the Rangers, despite the playoff experience of Lee & Vladamir Guerrero.

Divisional Round:
Yankees over Twins
Rangers over Red Sox

AL Champ: Yankees over Rangers


NL Playoff Teams:
NL East: Braves
NL Central: Reds
NL West: Rockies
NL Wildcard: Mets

The Braves made a smart trade getting rid of the immensely talented but mercurial Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez. In Bobby Cox’s final season, the team is all pulling in the same direction and can’t afford the distraction of the often-disinterested shortstop. With the return to health of Jason Heyward and Nate McClouth, the Braves offense will be able to match their strong pitching and hold off the Mets and Phillies for the division crown.

The Reds have been among the surprises in baseball this season. While they had the talent to compete, no one knew if the youth would finally come through. They are much like the 2008 Brewer team in that they have a young core of talent that should be able to carry them, but they could definitely use an extra pitcher to give them the leverage to hold off the Cardinals. They should try to get involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes, yet it might be more difficult to get a division foe to trade with than it would be to get a Vegas VIP hostess job without frontcourt enhancements.

The Padres have been a tremendous story during the first half of the year with a pitching staff that has kept them at or near first place most of the season. Yet the Rockies have been coming on as of late and all the experts seem to think they are still the team to beat in the NL West.

The Mets will also be heavily involved in the Roy Oswalt sweepstakes and may be the team capable of taking on his big contract. Also look for them to be there to get Ted Lilly from the Cubs. That addition of a pitcher combined with the return of Carlos Beltran, even if he is not at full strength, should be enough to hold off the injury-riddled Phillies for the Wildcard.

NL Divisional Round
Braves over Reds
Mets over Rockies

NL Championship: Braves over Mets

World Series: Yankees over Braves

Degenerate Friday!! MLB Futures

Before the gambling talk, a quick thought on the Giants beaning Prince Fielder with the first pitch of his first at bat of spring training. Prince hit the walk-off homer last season that culminated with an over the top celebration involving the entire team at home plate. I am all for the celebration, but when you do something like that, you may have to pay the piper, even though the celebration wasn’t aimed at the opponent and was just his own team celebrating together. I was glad to see Prince handle it like a man, flip the ball back to Zito and trot to first base. Now at the same time, the Brewers now have the right to continue the feud if they choose. If they want to plunk Pablo Sandoval in spring training or have Yovanni Gallardo buzz Zito’s tower when he gets to the plate in the regular season, it is justified.

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Just a little over a week until we get to the “Degenerate Christmas” that is the NCAA tournament. In the meantime, we need to keep up the roll we have been on when we loaded up on picking the US Hockey Team in the preliminary round and Canada in the medal game. What, you didn’t think I was serious on those games? You don’t trust my Olympic hockey knowledge? Never underestimate the random crappy sports knowledge that is stored in the Sports Addict’s head. So how do I keep that momentum going? By telling you about wagers that won’t be determined until November, so you’ll have long forgotten the wager by then – that’s how! Let’s look at the value bets for baseball futures on winning the World Series and the AL & NL Pennants. These are not my picks for who I think will win the trophies, but purely where I think there is value based on the current odds being offered. Let’s figure out where to stash our long-term investments…..assuming gambling was legal of course.

Here’s the link to the odds on bodog.com, and below are a few select odds for those that can’t get the link at their office:

Odds to Win the World Series & odds to win the AL/NL Pennant:

Yankees: 11/4 & 3/2
Red Sox: 10/1 & 6/3
Rays: 20/1 & 12/1
Twins: 20/1 & 9/1
Tigers: 28/1 & 14/1
White Sox: 25/1 & 12/1
Angels: 15/1 & 17/2
Mariners: 16/1 & 8/1
Rangers: 25/1 & 12/1

Cardinals: 13/1 & 11/2
Phillies: 6/1 & 3/1
Mets: 20/1 & 10/1
Braves: 22/1 & 11/1
Brewers: 40/1 & 18/1
Cubs: 18/1 & 9/1
Reds: 50/1 & 25/1
Astros: 75/1 & 40/1
Dodgers: 14/1 & 7/1
Diamondbacks: 35/1 & 15/1
Giants: 20/1 & 10/1

Worst Possible Bet:

New York Mets – World Series (20/1) or NL Pennant (10/1)
What have the Mets done that would lead you to think they could contend in their own division, much less the NL or the World Series? They added Jason Bay, who is like Fergie from the Black-Eyed Peas. A strong individual contributor, but when you surround them with real talent – like Will.I.Am – then you actually have something that can sell records. Even with Bay, their pitching is not good enough to content with the Phillies, Braves and possibly the Marlins. Johan Santana is a stud, but after that they are relying on John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez – three guys that could barely be the #4 starter on the other contenders. And yet because of the New York media and optimism, the odds remain similar to a team like San Francisco, which has Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Johnathan Sanchez and Barry Zito? Seems like their odds should be similar to Heidi Montag winning the Nobel Prize.

Best Value Bet for AL Pennant:

Seattle Mariners (8/1 odds)
There is no value to betting on the Yankees or Red Sox, so we’re just going to eliminate those teams immediately. The number of homer fans that will bet on them drive down the odds, which makes them even less attractive. And as of this moment, the Sox don’t have enough offense to compete (they will likely add Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego at some point), and the Yankees have to fight complacency after last year’s title. So instead, let’s look at a team that made some crucial acquisitions during the off-season and I believe may be best positioned to knock off the Yankees – the Mariners.

Their pitching rotation is as good as anyone in the league, with King Felix Hernandez at the top of the rotation, followed by last year’s post-season darling Cliff Lee, and Erik Bedard. The back end of the rotation has as much depth as it does talent, with a veteran in Ian Snell and young guys like Ryan Rowland-Smith, Doug Fister and Luke French. The bullpen is full of guys you never heard of, like closer David Aardsma. Then again, no one knew who Blake Lively was when she showed up in random terrible movies like “Accepted” or “The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants” and now she is paparazzi gold – much like Aardsma can be fantasy baseball gold.

Offensively, they added more speed to pair with Ichiro when they signed Chone Figgins away from division rival Anaheim. They picked up shortstop Jack Wilson from the Pirates at last season’s trade deadline, and they have great camraderie in the locker room due to the presence of the Mariners greatest player of all time, Ken Griffey Jr. If they can keep Milton Bradley focused on just playing baseball, he has the potential to be as important to the Mariners as Ron Artest has been to the Lakers this season. Getting 8/1 is pretty good value for a team that has two of the best pitchers in the AL, and two of the best on-base and production guys with Ichiro and Figgins.

Best Value Bet for the NL Pennant:

Atlanta Braves (11/1 odds)
Again, we are looking for value, so the Phillies are not in consideration. In addtion to that, it is hard to see them winning a third consecutive pennant. So where do we look? The Cardinals? Maybe, but the NL Central may be the toughest division battle top-to bottom with the improved Brewers pitching staff, a healthy Cubs team, and a young and improved Reds team. (The AL Central is the next toughest with the Twins, Tigers & White Sox. The AL East has NY and Boston, and maybe the Rays, but the Orioles & Blue Jays stink) And don’t sleep on the Astros, who still have Roy Oswalt to anchor their pitching staff and Carlos Lee & Lance Berkman on offense. Facing that challenge and not having great odds, I’ll pass on the Cardinals. That and I think that Tony LaRussa is an arrogant jag-off, so I would never want to root for him over a full season. The Atlanta Braves who have retooled, and have the offense and pitching to come together and make a run at the pennant, while giving us some quality value at 11/1.

The Braves have the offense to score runs, surrounding veterans Chipper Jones and Brian McCann with Nate McClouth, Melky Cabrera, veteran Troy Glaus and stud-in-the-making Yunel Escobar. It is a solid line-up of speed with McClouth, power with Jones, McCann & Glaus, and combo players like Escobar. Combine that line-up with their emerging pitching staff, including youngsters Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hansen with veterans Tim Hudson and Derek Low, and you have a team capable of being dominant. They also get the advantage of playing in a division with the worst team in baseball in the Washington Nationals, and teams that likely will not be able to compete in the Mets & Marlins. Lastly, don’t forget the emotions involved in the team knowing this is Bobby Cox’s final season as manager and wanting to send him out with a big season. Cox has been a legend in Atlanta and deserves to go out on top.

Best Bet to win the World Series:

Seattle Mariners (16/1)
Well, if we’re looking at a Seattle-Atlanta matchup in the World Series, Fox is not going to be happy, but baseball fans should be thrilled. You will get the angle of Ken Griffey Jr. and Bobby Cox trying to end their storied careers with a title, the return of Cliff Lee to the World Series, and the potential of a second straight Japanese born MVP (Matsui last year and Ichiro of the Mariners). While I like the odds and thus the payday of the Braves better, the Mariners have a more experienced pitching staff and will have come out of the tougher American League.

There you have it – my prediction that will most definitely not play out accurately, and I’ll come up with 1,000 different excuses for why it didn’t happen – injuries, weather, bad management, unfair playing field when the Yankees make another big trade, etc. Basically, I’ll turn into the 2009 NY Mets.

If We Knew Then What We Know Now........2009

First things first – the most important health news you will receive – EVER. You’re welcome.

LATE ADD - Thursday NFL Pick:
Colts (-3) over JAGUARS
Coach Caldwell wants to rest his players and the players want to go for the undefeated season. Something tells me the Colts will blow up the Jags early in an attempt to put the game away before Caldwell can take them out.

As we begin to wrap up 2009, instead of listing off the top movies or songs or albums or something of the year, I decided to take a little trip back in time. So hop in the Delorean with Marty McFly, fire it up with one-point-twenty-one jiggawatts of power and let’s set the destination to January 1, 2009. Let’s look at things we were pretty certain of at that time, and how they ended up playing out during the year. And next week I’ll come up with the things we believe at the end of 2009.

Belief #1: Brett Favre is retired and going to (finally) disappear into the vast farmland of Mississippi. After trying to force his way to the Vikings, Brett ended up with one poor season in New York hampered by a torn bicep, and it appeared pretty obvious to everyone that his tank had run dry and that he would finally hang up the cleats for good.

End of Year Reality #1: Favre did in fact retire in February 2009, blubbering like a little baby and telling ESPN that “there is no chance” he’ll play football again. Yet we all saw the ridiculous circus that ensued, with Favre denying that the Vikings had reached out to him, then eventually having his driver, Coach Brad Childress, pick him up from the airport. Favre is now among the favorites to win the league MVP, leading Minnesota to an 11-2 record. While some may have predicted the return to the game, very few people expected him to play as well as he has. Level of Surprise: Kim Kardashian Sex Tape (intriguing, but not really surprising)

Belief #2: The Arizona Cardinals were lucky to sneak into the playoffs by winning a terrible division, and would quickly be eliminated by the 11-5 Atlanta Falcons. The Cardinals won the putrid NFC West early and coasted the final weeks of the season. They looked like easy prey for Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and the Falcons.

End of the Year Reality #2: The Cards got hot in the playoffs, squeaked by Falcons, flattened the Panthers on the road, and beat the Eagles in Phoenix to advance to the Super Bowl. Suddenly the Cards offense was among the most dangerous in the league and their defense was playing as well as any team in the league. The end result was they were a few seconds, inches and an amazing Santonio Holmes tip toe in the endzone from being the Super Bowl champs. Kurt Warner was making you seriously consider him as a potential Hall-of-Famer, completing a comeback that could only be rivaled by the turnaround his wife made from resembling Annie Lennox of the Eurythmics (look her up kids) to being kind of a sneaky snicky. Level of Surprise: Carrie Prejean Sex Tape (we knew she had it in her)

Belief #3: Tiger Woods was coming off knee surgery, primed to continue his assault on Jack Nicklaus’s record 18 majors. He won the 2008 US Open on one leg, so there was no doubt that he would be able to rehab quickly and continue to dominate the PGA Tour. And as if his professional life didn’t seem good enough, he had a Swedish model for a wife with one beautiful kid and a baby due in a few months.

End of the Year Reality #3: He won 7 events on the tour and took home his second FedEx Cup championship. For almost 11 months, the year had gone exactly how you would have expected for Tiger. However, there was a reason he was so big on privacy, as his entire empire eventually collapsed around him due to his “transgressions” with a harem of women, concerns over his extreme gambling habits and most recently potential ties to a Canadian doctor with hook-ups for HGH. He has become the butt of numerous jokes using the slogans of many of the products he endorsed:

“Is it in you? It’s in every skank in town!” (Gatorade)
“Just Do It! Literally!” (Nike)
“Go On Be A Tiger – In the Bedroom!” (Accenture)
“The Best a Man Can Get – A Perkins Waitress, Really?” (Gillette)

He’s taken an indefinite leave from golf as his wife has moved out with the kids and she is parading in public without her wedding ring. His endorsements are drying up and he’s not speaking to his celebrity friends. No one ever could have predicted this. Level of Surprise: Tiger Woods Scandal (his own level at the very highest of surprises)

Belief #4: In December 2008, the Yankees signed C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett to fix their pitching woes and help them pass the Red Sox and Rays for the AL East title. As of January 1, they were just in talks with Mark Teixeira, to join them. With a rotation of CC, AJ, Pettite, Wang, and Joba, they were expected to pitch their way to the title.

End of Year Reality #4: That’s exactly what happened. The team added Teixeira to bolster the offense, and in the playoffs they switched to a 3-man rotation, relying solely on Sabathia, Burnett & Pettite through the playoffs. Despite Alex Rodriguez admitting to using steroids and missing the early part of the season to recover from hip surgery, he started dating Kate Hudson, settled down and became clutch. Level of Surprise: Liberace and Clay Aiken playing for the other team (duh)

Belief #5: Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators were preparing to take on the Oklahoma Sooners for the national championship in Miami. Tebow was as powerful and unstoppable as the Most Interesting Man in the World from the Dos Equis commercials. The question was not whether he would win the championship, it was whether he would come back for his senior season, win another Heisman Trophy and a win a third championship.

End of the Year Reality #5: Tebow and the Gators did win the championship on January 8th and Tebow did come back for his senior season. Yet everything changed when Taylor Wyndham of Kentucky came free late in a blow out game and knocked Tebow unconscious, sending him to the hospital with a severe concussion. Suddenly he was human, there was renewed concern about his ability to play quarterback at the next level and it became clear that he was a great leader, but not among the best players in the country. He came back to play in two weeks and still was a finalist for the Heisman (finishing 5th), but the team lost their chance at a National Championship, and the aura of Tebow was broken. Level of Surprise: Jessica Simpson broke up with another boyfriend (inevitable at some point)

Belief #6: Michael Jackson had disappeared from the public radar and had become a reclusive star. There were rumors of financial trouble when he sold his Neverland ranch, and rumors of failing health when he was seen in a wheelchair. However, there was no reason to believe there would be any news around him.

End of the Year Reality #6: Michael came out in February and announced he would be doing 10 “curtain call” concerts in London. At 50 years old, he began preparing himself to put on the shows. Unfortunately, on June 25th Michael Jackson went into cardiac arrest and died, surrounded by questions regarding his personal doctor and the care and prescriptions he was receiving. The public outcry of emotion and tributes to the King of Pop continued for several months and included him posthumously collecting a handful of American Music Awards. Level of Surprise: Betty Draper finding out about Don’s secret life (no one’s rooting for it, but it was going to happen at some point)

Bonus Belief: Obama was about to take office, walk on water, bring together both parties, stop the war, solve the economic woes and fix world hunger in his spare time. The expectations were through the roof for a young politician coming out of the dirty political pool that is Chicago and Illinois.

End of Year Bonus Reality: We’re still waiting. Other than having “Cash for _______” programs, he has more rounds of golf played than problems solved. Obviously most of these problems are not quick-fixes, but we’ve seen his approval rating sink faster than Jay Leno’s ratings. I think his only campaign promise that he kept was when he said he wanted a playoff in college football, and the Senate subcommittee actually voted on it. (sorry to get political, but it is what it is) Level of Surprise: Michael Jordan's Hall of Fame Speech (suddenly falling off the pedestal)

Week 8 Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Tip of the cap to Brett Favre. He played great, and is focused, controlled and not turning the ball over. The Vikings have a ton of weapons (memo to GB’s special teams coach: pack up your office. You’re fired. You couldn’t figure out how to keep the ball out of Percy Harvin’s hands?), and thoroughly dominated the game. And watching the game with Sal, I did correctly predict that there would be some waterworks from Brett in the post game interview on the field. Has to keep up that country bumpkin persona off the field.

- What a performance by Johnny Damon in the 9th inning last night. First the great at bat, fighting off pitches before slapping a single to left. Then a very risky move to steal second, and the intelligence to know he could outrun Pedro Feliz to 3rd base (Feliz was covering 2nd on a defensive shift). The runner on 3rd didn’t allow Brad Lidge to throw his best pitch – his slider – for fear of a wild pitch which would have scored Damon. Instead he has to go fastball, and A-Rod laces it to left. Say good night Phillies. Especially since your potential game 7 starter told reporters after he got shelled in game 3 that he couldn’t wait for the season to be over. Not exactly the eye of the tiger from Cole Hamels. And since no one wants to see a picture of Johnny Damon, here’s a picture of his wife.

- In addition to the Wildcat offense, maybe the Dolphins should find a way for Chad Henne to kick the ball to Ted Ginn when he’s lined up as a WR. He can catch a kick off, but he can’t catch a pass. And he can definitely run – 2 kickoff returns for TDs, 100 and 101 yards. Is it really vindication for getting benched for dropping passes to return kicks successfully? No one ever questioned his return ability. He still can’t catch a pass.

- Are we going to rev up the Vince Young hype machine now that the Texans finally won a game? He was able to move around in the pocket and keep plays alive, but he only had 125 yards on 15 completions. And Chris Johnson ran for 1,000 yards against the Jags. But they won the game, so I guess that’s what matters.

- The clubhouse leader for NBA rookie of the year after two games is Brandon Jennings of the Milwaukee Bucks. Given, it’s only 2 games, so there is a ton of time for him to come back to reality. But the dude looks like a legit stud. Dropping 20.5 ppg, 6 assists and 5 boards to start the season, and he almost put up a triple double in his first game. He’s a high-energy guy, and looks like he’s having fun. I’ve got the DVR set up to record the Bucks-Bulls game on Tuesday night

HATE

- Winners of the Paper Tiger Awards: Giants and Jets. The Giants look bad, and it’s possible that Eli Manning’s foot is worse than anyone knows and is the reason he’s sailing the ball long and turning it over like he’s back in his rookie year. The Jets lost because they couldn’t stop Ted Ginn on kick off returns, and the Dolphins defense returned a fumble for a TD. So Jets, after losing for the second time to the ‘Phins, time to give them some credit, right? Not for Calvin Pace, who continues to talk trash while playing for a 4-4 team that is 1-4 in their last five games. Time to shut up and win some games, fellas.

- Anyone notice Oregon is strangely making their way to the Rose Bowl? After eating USC’s lunch on Saturday night, they’re one of the most dangerous 1-loss teams in the country. And all anyone knows about them is they got embarrassed in the season opener by Boise State, their RB punched a dude after the game and their coach send a disgruntled fan a personal check refunding him for the tickets he bought to see them play bad. Oh, and they have the most ridiculous uniforms ever. Yet they slapped around mighty USC, and will be the Pac-10 rep in the Rose Bowl.

- Can we please stop talking about Iowa being in the hunt for the national championship? They are undefeated, but they stink. Had they been playing anyone other than a putrid Indiana team, they would have lost this week. Ricky Stanzi, quite possibly the best QB in the Big Ten by default, threw 5 interceptions in the game – 4 of them in the 3rd quarter alone – and they still managed to win by double digits. They are threatening to really mess with the BCS is they end up unbeaten.

- Well I figured one of the QBs in the Cardinals-Panthers game was going to be a turnover machine. I just didn’t figure it would be Kurt Warner, not Jake Delhomme. Warner had 4 INTs and a fumble, allowing the Panthers to keep themselves on the skirts of the playoff hunt.

- Brandon Spikes of Florida should be suspended for the rest of the season. He is a classless ass-clown. An obvious eye-gouging of the Georgia RB from a guy that is supposed to be the best linebacker in college? Did he think that he was suddenly a pro wrestler? And they were comfortably handling Georgia and the RB was a nobody, so what was he possibly thinking?


- I’m not one for Sci-Fi movies or television shows to begin with, but what is Bailey from Party of Five doing on that overhyped “V” show on ABC?

NFL Power Rankings - 80's Movies

The NBA tipped off last night, the World Series starts tonight, the NFL season is almost at the midway point, and Halloween I this weekend. Halloween - the holiday that gives girls an excuse to dress up as a slutty (fill in the blank). It’s also the holiday when the characters that hang out in the subways and certain parts of Chelsea or Boys Town fit in with the rest of the crowd.

Word on the street is that Philly is trying to come up with a musical act to play before game 3 of the World Series to counteract Jay-Z and Alicia Keyes tonight. Not sure what Philly’s options are……Boyz II Men? Hall & Oates? Can you imagine the crowd getting pumped up to “Maneater” or “Private Eyes”?

Started looking through costume ideas and it seems the hot costumes this year were the stars of the 80’s that died during the year – Michael Jackson, Patrick Swayze and Farrah Fawcett. So this week’s power rankings are broken into tiers based on the top movies during the 80’s based on worldwide box office sales. Had to leave out some great movies, unfortunately: Beverly Hills Cop, Batman, Crocodile Dundee and Back to the Future II. Without further ado……..

The “Top Gun” Tier
The quintessential movie of the 80’s, these are the top teams in the league. These are the teams that could grab the microphone in any bar and belt out “You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feeling” and the rest of the bar would join in. They could land Kelly McGillis, and play beach volleyball and not get a grain of sand stuck on them. The movie had a great cast, with Cruise, Kilmer, Edwards, McGillis, Robbins &Meg Ryan – and these teams have great casts.

1. Saints (last week: 1) – A great comeback win over Miami to cement the fact that they can overcome adversity. And now Reggie Bush says he thinks the Saints can go undefeated the entire season. He also said once he wins the NFL MVP award, it will vindicate him against all the negativity he has faced so far in his career. Now we know why he & Kim Kardashian are a good couple – similar intelligence and lack of talent.

2. Colts (2) – They were supposed to destroy the Rams, and they did. They continue to roll through the league with a precision and workman-like approach.

3. Broncos (5) – Coming off their bye, they get another stiff test by going to Baltimore. Something tells me that after the game, they’ll be able to chomp their gum in Ray Lewis’s face and say, “That’s right. Ice….man. I am dangerous.”

4. Steelers (7) – Their defense pulled them through a tough game against the Vikings, and they’ve now won3 straight games after the 1-2 start. The offense is clicking, and the defense has returned to its dominant self from last season. No truth to the rumor that they requested permission to buzz the tower during their bye week.

5. Vikings (3) – The Viking luck finally ran out against the Steelers, and suddenly they look in their rearview mirror and they have a MiG on their tail in the Packers. A loss this week in Green Bay would drop them into a tie for the division lead after their strong start.

6. Patriots (8) – Ho-hum, another week, another terrible team destroyed. This time after a long overnight flight to London. The Pats offense is humming right now, and in no small part because Wes Welker appears to be fully healthy. Bill Belichick is the commander who gets the coffee spilled on him during the fly-by. “Dammit that’s twice! I want some butts!”

The “Rainman” Tier
Proving Tom Cruise was a legend in the 80’s, here’s another of his greatest hits. Like Raymond Babbitt (Dustin Hoffman), these teams are quirky, and have some issues, yet still have the ability to be dominant – like Ray counting the toothpicks in the jar.

7. Bengals (9) – That was the definition of a beat-down that they put on the Bears. Old-school, ran over them, threw over them, and created a ton of turnovers. Now they get a bye week before facing the Ravens and Steelers in back-to-back weeks.

8. Giants (4) – There are some legit concerns about whether the Giants pumped themselves up with a weak schedule in the first 5 weeks of the year. After their second straight loss to a good team – first in New Orleans, then home against the Cardinals – the questions are starting to get asked about the offense and the defense.

9. Eagles (16) – Probably didn’t deserve this big of a jump after beating the hapless Skins, but they do appear to be on a roll. The only blemish on the week was Westbrook getting the Christ Tucker in “Friday” treatment (“You got knocked the F#ck out!”). We will know a lot more about this team after the Giants game this week. Another Philly-New York battle. The red-headed stepchild teams from Philly match up pretty well with their big brothers in the city. Although this is the Giants first chance for revenge on McNabb for his phone-call-on-the-sidelines antics of the playoffs last year.

The “Return of the Jedi” Tier
There is only one team that fits into this category – The Green Bay Packers. In case you haven’t heard, Brett Favre makes his return to Lambeau on Sunday. And based on what he did the first half of the Jets season last year and thus far with the Vikings, Favre is showing he is more than Mark Hamil – capable of performing in more than one role. The reason this was one of the greatest movies in the decade? Because of the Ewoks. What other movie had those funny, furry little guys for entertainment? And didn’t it seem like the Ewoks and Chewbacca should have been able to communicate better?

10. Packers (11) - The Packers have tuned up by crushing pathetic teams in the Lions and Browns, so they come in ready. Will they be able to block Jared Allen better this time around? If not, Rodgers is going to look like Amy Winehouse again after the game.

The “E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial” Tier
This was the #1 movie of the decade. It was a story of a lost alien, and the teams in this category, may not be aliens, but they definitely have bouts of being lost. They have had some “Ouch” moments and they seem to play better at home. They have some flaws, but also have the ability to make the bike fly past the moon at the right time.

11. Cardinals (15) – Well, after they beat down the Giants in the Meadowlands, it appears they found some of that alien power that had taken over their defense during their Super Bowl run last year. The offense is capable, even with a banged up Boldin, and the attacking defense has found a rhythm. They’re now in position to take control of a division that it appeared the 49ers were all over.

12. Cowboys (19) – Romo Pyle and Austin Miles appear to have learned to communicate like Elliot and ET lately. The Cowboys have looked like the team they thought they would be, and beating the Falcons was a very impressive victory. They now get the weak Seahawks at home to continue their hot streak, and continue to build Romo Pyle’s confidence. His play right before the half - dodging, ducking and finally finding Crayton in the endzone was the type of play that raised expectations for him in the first place.

13. Falcons (6) – That was a concerning loss to a Cowboys team that was floundering a little before that game. It was obvious that their banged up secondary is a problem that could keep them from being among the top teams. Huge test this week with the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints can put a strangle hold on the division with a win, and the Falcons can prove they will have staying power like Drew Barrymore after ET.

14. Ravens (13) – Coming off a bye week, they need to right their ship in a bad way, and face a tough Denver team in Baltimore. A chance to prove that they are the team in the beginning of the year, and not the team the past 3 weeks.

15. Jets (14) – Pretty sure Sanchez just cemented his first sponsorship deal with Oscar Mayer. Everyone wanted to know where he got it, but I’m pretty sure Rex keeps a solid stash of hot dogs, Skittles, M&Ms, Cheetos, and Milk Duds nearby at all times. More importantly, the Jets did what almost seemed impossible, making the Raiders actually bench Fatso Russell.

16. Chargers (20) – It’s not overly impressive to slaughter the Chiefs, but they have the talent to play with anyone in the league. It just seems Norv Turner has no ability to fire up his team. Maybe he and his brother Ron (see #19 below) can wait in the unemployment line together during the off-season.

The “Indiana Jones & the Temple of Doom” Tier
The second of the Indiana Jones movies – and while Raiders of the Lost Ark was far and away the best of the three movies, this one has the title that’s most appropriate for these teams. Teams that are in the Temple of Doom, with the ability to make the playoffs, but their lack of consistency could be their eventual doom. Is Harrison Ford the greatest actor of all time? I think he has a really strong case for it. The dude was in 2 trilogies that dominated the 80’s, the Tom Clancy movies in the 90’s (Patriot Games, Clear & Present Danger) among other great hits. If you just forget that time when he got an earring and pretended he wasn’t as old as he actually was, it’s been an amazing career.

17. Texans (17) – Well they finally broke out on the upside of .500 and immediately are being questioned whether they can sustain it. Matt Schaub is putting up tremendous numbers, leading the league in TDs (16) and yards (2,074) while being 4th in the league in QB rating (104.4). But even with those stats, would you want him with the ball in his hands when you need a game-winning drive? Schaub might be Warren Moon 2.0.

18. 49ers (10) –What’s the biggest difference between Alex Smith and Michael? Alex Smith is happy to have VD. (that’s Vernon Davis, Hildo). I hope for Smith’s sake that he is able to take this chance at a career rebirth and run with it – otherwise he can take his position among the biggest busts: JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Michael Vick & Scarlett Johansson.

19. Bears (12) – What an embarrassment against the Bengals. Is Lovie Smith going to be on the hotseat? If he doesn’t find a way to be better now that he has his supposed franchise quarterback, he will be. Having the Browns come to town is a nice way to lower the heat on his seat. Ron Turner can't turn down the heat - he's getting fired. He got his QB and has not had success, while his rejects (Orton & Benson) are lighting the league on fire.

20. Jaguars (21) – MJD is the Short Round of the Jags. I wonder if he’s going to accuse the Commissioner of cheating? Did you know Short Round was also in Goonies, and was in 22 episodes of “Head of the Class”?

The “Rambo: First Blood Part II” Tier
These are the teams that are doing battle while short-handed and facing long odds for success. Not sure any of these teams have the ability of John Rambo to pull off the impossible, but the tagline for the movie “What most people call hell, he calls home” is appropriate for all these teams.

21. Dolphins (18) – Team Wildcat put up a valiant fight against the Saints, but will not be able to take the next step with Ted Ginn dropping passes all over the field. The running game continues to be dangerous, with Ricky Williams running like someone stole his pipe.

22. Bills (24) – Are we supposed to be impressed that they beat the Panthers when they had 12 guys on defense and the Panthers only had 10 guys on offense. Wait, Jake Delhomme plays for the Panthers? Could have fooled me……and the Bills.

23. Seahawks (22) – Continuing a trend of playing well when you count them out, but once you build conviction, they match up about as well as Sylvester Stallone next to anyone over 5’4”.

24. Panthers (23) – John Fox is considering benching Delhomme. Considering? Then again, he knows he’s getting canned after the season, so maybe he’s just having some fun and wants to see how many INTs he can throw in one season. It’s the equivalent of lighting the house on fire before Bill Cowher has to come in and try to put out the fire and see if there are any salvageable parts.

The “Ghost Busters” Tier
The movie boasts a power line-up of big name actors and actresses going along with a ridiculous storyline. It’s entertaining because you have a couple of stars like Bill Murray, Dan Akroyd and Harold Ramis providing funny moments, but overall, it’s not a cinematic masterpiece. There is some talent in this tier (Calvin Johnson, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, etc.), but these teams are a joke. The house has been getting crushed this season because they can’t make the spreads wide enough when these teams play any of the top teams in the league. It means a couple things – we’re going to start seeing some college-football-style 20+ point spreads in the very near future, and the gambling apocalypse is coming. At some point, the underdogs are going to have a week when they cover or win and all of us that continue to pound the favorites are going to get crushed. It’s coming. Be warned.

25. Lions (25) – They remain the tallest midget of this group. Stafford looks like he might be ready to return to the line-up, which should bode well for them to have a chance to cover a couple spreads and steal a couple victories in the second half of the year.

26. Browns (26) – Hard to believe this team is better than 6 other teams. SIX. And this team is horrendous. The Browns have scored 6 or fewer points in 4 of their 7 games – including winning one of those games. Awful, and pretty obvious that the Browns are not going to play Brady Quinn to ensure he doesn’t reach his playing time quota to get a sizeable performance bonus.

27. Raiders (26) – So much for that playoff prediction by Richard Seymour. They finally benched Shamoo Russell, but it’s not like Bruce Gradkowski is exactly a huge upgrade. They are the Lindsay Lohan of the NFL – a total train wreck that somehow continues to stay in the news even though no one really cares any more.

28. Chiefs (29) – Exhibit #356,731 why athletes without any education should be restricted from using Twitter: Larry Johnson. Hey Turner brothers, save a place for LJ in the unemployment line.

29. Titans (28) – Sure LJ, they’ll hold a spot for you right next to Chuck Cecil. And Chuck might be holding a spot for Jeff Fisher, since the Titans owner is now demanding to see why he’s paying Vince Young a boatload of cash. Can Vince have an Alex Smith-like revival of his career? He doesn’t have VD, but he does have a fast Johnson (Chris).

30. Redskins (30) – There really isn’t anything else to say about the most messed up situation in the entire league. They’ve surpassed the Raiders as the biggest circus in the league. If Snyder really wants to produce a winner, he needs to clean house completely and turn it all over to Mike Holmgren or Mike Shanahan. Zorn has effectively become everyone in the Ghost Buster movie that gets slimed.

31. Buccaneers (31) – Maybe its Gozer the Gozerian that is causing the Bucs to be so pathetic. Or maybe it’s a general lack of talent. Might as well start the Josh Freeman Era inTampa because if you’re going to crash, you might as well go down in flames.

32. Rams (32) – Steven Jackson continues to put up 100 yard performances without touchdowns and the team continues to get blown out, week after week, only putting up an average of 8.6 ppg. Ladies and Gentlemen, you’re permanent owners of the basement, St. Louis Rams.

Tuesday Ramblings - World Series - Philadelphia, NJ

Interesting take here from Gary D Howard on how to handle Brett Favre’s return to Lambeau this Sunday. I think I agree with him. As much of a d-bag as Favre was as a person on his way out of town, he was the single legend that returned respectability to the team, the franchise, the city and the state for football. He’s the reason Reggie White came to town. So I think he deserves the pre-game cheer when he runs out on to the field. But that’s where it ends, and once the ball is kicked, I’m cheering with all my might for him to be the overly-excited turnover machine he has been in the past.

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So Mark McGwire is going to be a hitting coach? Isn’t that kind of like asking a girl with a boob job to explain a push-up bra? I think this is another case of the arrogance of Tony LaRussa taking over. He is trying to get people to see McGwire as a baseball guy and eventually get him into the Hall of Fame, instead of only remembering his pathetic performance in front of Congress about using steroids – “I’m not here to talk about the past.” The guy is a career .263 hitter, and only hit over .300 twice in full seasons during his 16 year career. And that guy is going to teach guys how to hit? What is he going to teach Albert Pujols? Ridiculous.

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Could ESPN have a more biased team of analysts for the baseball season? Jayson Stark, Peter Pascarelli, Eric Karabell, and John Kruk are such homers for the Phillies, they can’t actually make sane assessments of the matchup between Philly and the Yankees. Stark just hesitated comparing Jorge Posada and Carlos Ruiz. Don’t get me wrong, Ruiz has a knack for coming up with huge hits and might be the Darrell Porter of the past few season, but he is not on the same level as Posada. And I think Posada is a whiny diva biyatch. Kruk claimed that the Phillies line-up was more potent than the Yankees. Really? Better than the Yankees lineup that had 7 guys with more than 20 HRs, all 9 starters with double digits in HRs, the second-highest batting average in baseball, 244 HRs as a team (more than the NL leading 224 the Phils hit), and the highest OBP in the league. It’s not even close, and Kruk showed he must have had his brains in his mullet during the 90’s and when he cut it off to do television analysis, he lost his mind.

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How are you feeling if you’re a Cleveland Indians fan right now? Watching your two former aces facing off in game 1 – CC Sabbathia vs. Cliff Lee. Ouch. Doesn’t seem like that long ago the Indians had a team that looked ready to compete for some time with Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, Victor Martinez, CC & Lee. Maybe they’re the new Montreal Expos – Pedro Martinez, Delino DeShields, Marquis Grissom, Larry Walker, Moises Alou, Cliff Floyd, Sean Berry, Mel Rojas, Dennis Martinez, Ken Hill, and John Wetteland

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Taking the Yankees in 6 games. Too much Yankee offense, and despite the fact that the Phillies bullpen was good in the NLCS, they are not good. The Phillies are relying on Pedro to keep his magic going and Cole Hammels to not be as awful as he has been during the regular and post season. That’s too many holes to allow a team like the Yankees to exploit. The Phillies were the best team in the NL all season, and deserve to be in the World Series, but they don’t have the talent to keep up.

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So the teams will have a something like 17 off-days during the post-season, after only having 20 off-days during the entire 6-month regular season. That’s a dumb schedule.

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Philly is my most hated city in the entire US. The city is dirty, ugly and not good to visit or spend any time in. And the people are all chubby, greasy, angry, fair-weather fans, and all have a chip on their shoulder. I understand that it’s not fun being the biggest city in New Jersey – I’d be angry too if that was my claim to fame. Oh, wait, their claim to fame is a fake movie about a 5’5” boxer named Rocky. So their baseball success has just made their fans even more insufferable. I hope they get swept just to shut up their fans. As a good friend says, “Philly is a good place to take a dump on your way to a real city.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: I know Philly is not actually in Jersey, but it might as well be – it’s surrounded by Jersey, the people are the same as the worst in Jersey and it smells like the worst of Jersey.

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I think the NBA season starts tonight. I think I’ll put together a season preview piece as soon as the players start to play hard and make an effort. So look for that piece to come out around New Year’s. The biggest stories for the season are what LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are going to do NEXT year, and all the teams that are tanking it to make cap room to try and sign one of those guys.

Oh, and Blake Griffin gets a hairline fracture in his knee 2 days before he’s supposed to make his regular season debut. And he looked extremely impressive and had the potential to keep the Clippers in the playoff hunt. Typical Clippers luck.

And I’m pretty sure that Kevin Durant is the new Dominique Wilkins. A dynamic player that everyone talks about as being under the radar, but he’s under the radar because he doesn’t have the ability to raise the level of play for those around him. Someone has to take shots and score on that pathetic team. Maybe a combination of Wilkins and Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

Tuesday Ramblings - Worst Coach in the NFL?

Wow, so yesterday was among the better sports viewing days in recent memory. We get two walk-offs in baseball and a solid comeback to stay unbeaten in the NFL. Can you remember another day that had that many dramatic finishes in games of serious consequences?

The Angels got right back in the series, but need to continue their roll against CC tonight. The Phillies put their foot on the Dodger’s throats by taking out their vaunted bullpen. And while Josh McDaniels didn’t repeat the fist-pumping victory celebration, might the Broncos actually be a Super Bowl contender!?!
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Why is the NY media jumping on Joe Girardi so hard for changing pitchers last night? Yes, the move didn’t work out, but he had logic behind the move. He went to a guy that doesn’t rely on his fastball and uses curves and off-speed pitches to get guys out against a hitter that doesn’t hit curves and off-speed pitches well. So it didn’t work out. But his decision made sense before the hit. If he would have left Robertson in the game and he would have given up the hit, Girardi would have been roasted more than Grady Little. So it was basically a no-win situation. And these are the same idiotic fans/media that said Torre stayed with guys too long and didn’t do enough. Guys like Mike Vaccaro of the NY Post seem to think they have more baseball knowledge than a guy like Joe Girardi. Vaccaro would be better suited to tell the story of the game and not ramble on about strategy like some drunken Vinny from Queens.
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Who is the worst coach in the NFL? There are some really poor teams, but who are the worst head coaches? Not just a bad record can contribute to who is the worst coach, and it says something about the sorry state of coaches when a guy like Eric Mangini, hated by his own players, doesn’t even crack the top (bottom?) 5 worst coaches. Here’s my list……….

1. Jim Zorn – almost doesn’t qualify because it is the worst kept secret in the world that he’s getting fired. They’re basically treating him like Milton in Office Space – having him move his desk to the basement, and taking away his Swingline stapler. The guy was woefully under qualified for the position in the first place. Adding a “consultant” that then takes over play-calling within 2 weeks is a precursor to “Your Ass is Getting Canned” as soon as they decide who can be the interim coach.

2. Norv Turner – Mr. Roper has always done less with more. He has a pro bowl QB, a hall of fame RB, a pro bowl returner/backup RB, 2 pro bowl LBs and a pro bowl CB. Yet his teams start every year with a losing record by week 7 and scramble to get to the playoffs, where they will fizzle and become a disappointment. This is his third head coaching job, and he has been awful at all of them – career record of 79-98-1. And he was 58-82-1 when he got the job in San Diego – what did they expect?

3. Wade Phillips – The Son of Bum is a bum. Similar to Norv Roper, this guy always flops when it matters or when he has talent. Also in his 3rd head coaching stint, he does have an overall winning record of 73-51, but he has NEVER won a playoff game in 8 full seasons as the head coach, with an 0-4 record. Pathetic.

4. Tom Cable – Similar to Zorn, he was sadly under qualified for the position. But then again, someone had to say yes to Al Davis. However, someone didn’t have to (allegedly) do something to an assistant coach that resulted in the assistant coach having a broken jaw. Also similar to Zorn, he’s working in a terrible situation with an owner that is his own worst enemy and doesn’t know it.

5. Dick Jauron – We know Jauron is a smart guy – he has the Ivy league degree from Princeton to prove it. But that does not make him a good head coach. I’m not sure how he ever got the job in Buffalo. He has a career record of 59-80, and was 35-45 in 4 years in Chicago and 1-4 in relief in Detroit prior to the Bills job. In his 10 seasons as a head coach, his teams have only ranked higher than 23rd in the league in points once. And only once higher than 23rd in yards, and that was his first year in Chicago in 1999. So why are we surprised that the Bills offense is awful this year and they don’t know how to use Terrell Owens?

Honorable Mention:
Eric Mangini – flamed out in NY, and somehow got another gig immediately with Cleveland and managed to alienate his team and fan base before the half way point of the season. Think he’s jealous of the way Josh McDaniels is performing?

Raheem Morris – compared to Mike Tomlin when he got the job, he has a serious lack of talent on the Bucs, so he gets a short-term pass.

Todd Haley – has the youngest team in the league with the Chiefs, so he also gets a pass.

Not on the list of worst coaches but will be fired this year or this off season:
John Fox, Jeff Fisher, Gary Kubiak and Jack Del Rio (though his owner’s struggles with ticket sales and tight wallet might save his job)

ALCS & NLCS Previews

Before getting to the baseball playoffs, a moment of silence for Captain Lou Albano, who passed away yesterday. In addition to being an actual wrestler back in the day, he became more famous for the Hawaian shirts, crazy hair and rubber bands in his beard. And who can forget that he played the father in Cyndi Lauper's "Girls Just Wanna Have Fun" video? Takes me back to when wrestling seemed like a mainstream sport when I was growing up. Watching some of the greats from the 80's and 90's, before Vince McMahon made it into all about too much violence and production and less about the wrestling.

ALCS – Angles at Yankees

So the easy pick in this series is to take the Yankees. They have the big payroll, they steamrolled the Twins, have the big name pitching, solid bullpen, home field advantage, and are the favorites to win the World Series. But let’s not dismiss this Angels team so fast (like I did in the first round, picking the Sox to knock them out in 4 games). Let’s break this down John Madden-style………

“Now there’s a team that’s better than the Twins. See, they won more games than the Twins, and even though Brett Favre is now in Minnesota, the Angels are better than the Twins.”

If the Twins had come up with a couple of clutch hits and maybe gotten the correct call on that Joe Mauer liner in game 3, it would have been competitive. Now those are huge if’s and it’s like saying if OJ hadn’t (allegedly) stabbed those people he would have continued jumping luggage for Hertz and making Naked Gun movies. But the bottom line is that the Twins did not play well after being extremely hot down the stretch to steal that playoff spot. And the Angels are a better team than the Twins, not just because of their better record. They have better pitching, more speed, and a great manager in Mike Scioscia. The Yankees swept all 10 games they played against the Twins this year (playoffs included), and split their 10 games with the Angels.

“Now, now, what we have is a big guy in Sabbathia, who can just, BOOM! Zip that ball in there and dominate the game. I mean, he’d be good competition for me at an all-you-can-eat buffet.”

CC will always have a special place in my heart for carrying the Brewers to the playoffs last year, and he followed it up with a tremendous year in the Bronx, possibly winning the Cy Young award going 19-8. Yet, he was 0-2 with an ERA over 6 against the Angles this year, and he’ll be starting game 1 in NY when the weather is supposed to be brutal – possibly rain and definitely cold. CC is a California guy, and I still believe that he wanted to sign with the Angels last off season, but had to take the mammoth amount of money being thrown at him by the Steinbrenners. So I’m not convinced that he will be lights out in the first game, and if he’s not, the Angels have a chance to build some momentum and put some pressure on the Yanks. And we know how A-Rod feels about pressure.

“Brett Favre is great under pressure and there’s a guy that can just play football, because he’s a football player. If he were a baseball player, then he would, you know, be a baseball player. AJ Burnett is no Brett Favre because he doesn’t even have the same initials and then……..and then………….there you go.”

AJ Burnett has never been a big game pitcher and in fact has shied away from attention or big games historically. Keith Law of ESPN (formerly a Blue Jays front office guy) claimed that Burnett would rather spend time in the training room than on the mound. Add that to the fact that he needs to have his personal catcher in Benji Molina (at least I think it’s Benji. It’s one of those Molina brothers), and the drama that results with the Yankees biggest diva, Jorge Posada. Poor little Jorge is angry that he doesn’t get to start every game at catcher, but the Angels are going to run and it’s going to much harder with Molina behind the plate than if Posada’s noodle arm is back there lobbing rainbows down to second and allowing passed balls regularly. If the Angels get to Sabbathia in game 1, the pressure will be on Burnett, which is not a good thing for him.

The Yankees are talking about going with a 3-man rotation, and the Yankees should probably be the most confident in their 3rd starter, Andy Pettite. If the weather holds out, there is a chance that the Yankees could go with a 3 man rotation, giving Sabbathia 3 starts in the 7 game series. If the weather doesn’t work out, then they have to make a decision between throwing Chad Gaudin or taking Joba out of the bullpen.

The Yankees do have the big bats in Texeira and Rodriguez to carry them if the starting pitching falters and their bullpen has been tremendous with Joba back where he belongs, Phil Hughes and the ageless Marianano Rivera. But the Yankees will have to also contain Vlad Guerrero, who despite having a subpar (for him) regular season, hit over .400 against the Yankees, and Torii Hunter, who has a knack for the big moment.

And I haven’t even mentioned the huge edge the Angels have in coaching with Mike Scioscia over Joe Girardi. Not only has Scioscia owned New York as a manager of the Angels, when he played for the Dodgers he was a thorn in the side of the Big Apple – knocking the Mets out of the NLCS in 1988, and being a part of the 1978 Dodger team that defeated the Yankees. And also add the extra motivation to win to honor their fallen teammate Nick Adenhart, and you have a well-coached and motivated team of destiny.

Bottom Line: The Angels are going to give the Yankees all they can handle and more. It should be an extremely entertaining series that will give the New York media multiple moments to flip out and turn on their home team like they always do. Prediction: Angels in 7

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NLCS – Phillies at Dodgers

The Dodgers get a chance to avenge last season’s NLCS loss to the eventual champion Phillies. The Phillies get a chance to prove that last season wasn’t a fluke and win back-to-back titles. In what should be a good matchup on the field and also adds off-the field stories if the Dodgers win with Joe Torre getting a chance to go back to face the Yankees in their new stadium, or the potential of an all LA/Anaheim series. Reminds me of the scene in Swingers:

“Hey man, you're not from here, alright. You don't know how it is. I grew up in L.A.”
“Anaheim.”
“Whatever, man…”
“….It’s not like you grew up in Compton, Sue, with bullets whizzing by your head...”
“People get car-jacked.”
“Who would ever carjack your f—kin K-Car?”

So let’s break this series down Drew Rosenhaus-style………..

“Next Question.”

The Phillies starting pitching has the two big names in Cliff Lee and Cole Hammels, while the Dodgers throw a young stud in Clayton Kershaw and then follow it up with Vincente Padilla, Hideki Kuroda coming back from injury and Randy Wolf. As a side note, didn’t the Rangers cut Padilla after he got swine flu? And now he’s pitching in the NLCS? Seems like the swine flu actually worked out well for him. But like I pointed out the other day, Hammels struggled all year, finishing 10-11 and got hit hard in game 2 against the Rockies. He will be starting in game 1, and it’s a night game, so he won’t have that excuse to lean on if he gets shelled again. Cliff Lee was lights out against the Rockies, proving that his lack of big-game experience would not be a factor. Kershaw, Wolf and Padilla were solid against the Cards, besting Cy Young favorites Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Having lefties in Kershaw and Wolf seems like the best chance to neutralize Utley, Howard and Ibanez. Overall, it seems like a wash.
“Next Question.”

The Phillies hit more HR than any team in the league – by a wide margin – hitting more than 220 with the next closest team being the Rockies being below 190. Manny cruised down the stretch, but is always dangerous in clutch situations. Adam Eithier appears to be a legitimate stud, and James Loney and Casey Blake provide reliable protection in the line-up. For the Phils, it’s all about Ryan Howard, who came up with clutch hits against the Rockies and is proving to be a more reliable hitter (for more than just HR) than even Chase Utley. Howard has gotten timely support from Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, which makes the Phillies lineup dangerous almost from top to bottom. Slight edge to the Phillies.

“Next Question.”

The Phillies were among the top defensive teams in the league during the regular season, but played uncharacteristically poor against the Rockies. Manny is always a defensive liability, yet manages to unleash a laser whenever he needs it. Neither team is exceptionally poor on defense, so I’ll call it a wash again.

“Next Question.”

Joe Torre has more playoff wins than any manager in history, and would love to get another one before the Yankees do. While the knock on him has always been that he was a caretaker for well-paid, veteran-led teams, this Dodger team is young and the team follows their manager’s calm and collected demeanor. Charlie Manuel earned his stripes with last season’s title run, but against the Phillies got away with a few questionable decisions – starting Cliff Lee in game 1 when he had never started a playoff game, pitching Cole Hammels in game 2 during the day knowing he had struggled mightily in day games, and burning Joe Blanton and JA Happ in game 2. Luckily for Manuel, the weather in Denver postponed game 3, which allowed him to come back with JA Happ, but it could have been dicey if that game would have had to be played on Saturday night. Advantage: Dodgers, heavily.

“Next Question.”

The Dodgers bullpen has been solid, with the mid-season acquisition of George Sherrill setting up for the fireballer Jonathan Broxton. Against the Cards in game 3, I didn’t see him throw a pitch under 98. The Dodgers had the lowest bullpen ERA in the league during the regular season, and show no slowing down. The Phillies bullpen is a mess because you never know what you’re going to get with Brad Lidge. Yes, he was effective against the Rockies, but has a team ever won the World Series while removing their closer during the season, only to give him the job back right before the playoffs? Advantage: Dodgers

Bottom Line: In another what should also be a closely contested series, the Dodgers pitching is more reliable than the Phillies, because I’m basing it on what I’ve seen of Cole Hammels this year, not his reputation from last year. And when you factor in a better and more versatile bench that will factor into close late inning moments, and a better bullpen, I see the Dodgers getting their revenge from next year and moving on to their first World Series since 1988. Dodgers in 6 games.

Barney Baseball

Baseball is in the final week of the regular season and I can’t remember a recent season with less drama in almost every race. The only exception is the AL Central where the Tigers and Twins are currently starting a 4 game series with the Twins trailing the Tigers by 2 games. Why does no one outside of Minnesota or Michigan care about who wins? Part of the problem is the media’s intense focus on only things involving the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers – the 3 biggest baseball markets. The other problem is that whoever wins the division is going to be first round fodder for those Yankees.

What’s better? To be the Twins where every year you might barely squeak into the playoffs and then get bounced in the first round, or to be the Marlins where they build up a team capable of winning (and they have won), then blow the whole thing up, are terrible for a couple years and then reload. I’m not sure, because I’d like to be in the playoffs every year, but do you become immune to the excitement if you just continually get bounced in the first round? Kind of like a girlfriend that has classic good looks but may not be a super model/singer vs. the girl with the boob job and botox that’s going to need to be “retuned” every few years. I think I’ll take the consistency year over year. Think Tony Romo trading in Jessica Simpson for Natalie Smith.

This season, there have barely been any changes in playoff teams since the end of June. As of June 30, the AL playoff teams would have been: Boston, NY, LA Angels, and Detroit. As of today, those are the exact same teams, the only difference is now the Yankees won the division and the Red Sox are the wildcard. In the NL, it took an extra 3 weeks, but as of July 20, the playoff teams would have been: Philly, St. Louis, Dodgers, and Colorado. As of today, those are the exact teams in the exact places.

The positive from the fact that the last 2+ months of the season have been meaningless, is that it confirms that the best teams will be active in the playoffs. These teams have proven over the course of the season that they have the best teams in their divisions and, in theory, the playoffs should be very competitive. I’ll put together a more in-depth preview once the regular season is complete, but for now I’ll just say that I think 1-2-3 starting pitchers and a couple guys who can mash are the keys to success in the playoffs.

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On a somewhat related, but different topic, I’m rooting really hard for the Rockies to fold in this past week and have the Braves or the Giants make the playoffs as the NL Wild Card. I’m not sure what I have against the Rockies – they swept the Phillies two years ago, which I thoroughly enjoyed – but I think it has something to do with the Purple Barney uniforms. Has a team wearing purple ever won a major championship?

NFL – Vikings -> Nope
NBA – Suns, Raptors (since dropped), Kings, Jazz, Bucks (since dropped) -> Nope
MLB – Rockies -> Nope
NHL – LA Kings -> Nope

The only real exception is the LA Lakers. Their purple and gold has won many championships, so maybe they break the rules about winning while looking like Barney.

I guess the only other exceptions I can think of are the Baltimore Ravens, but they are primarily black and white and use purple and gold as accent colors……maybe. And I guess you could make a case for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but since they’ve changed colors 3,217 times in the 11 years they’ve had a team, I’m not sure it counts.

So maybe that’s why I don’t want to see the Rockies in the playoffs. Either that or it’s the fact that games at Coors are never the classic pitching duels I like in the playoffs. Or I’d rather watch Lincecum or Tommy Hanson pitch than……….sorry, can’t think of a Rockies pitcher – Ubaldo Jimenez?