Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Finally, the dumbest “strategy” move by a football coach backfired and cost his team the game. I abhor when coaches call a timeout one second before the snap for a game-winning field goal and make the team kick it twice. It’s a bulls#it move that shouldn’t be allowed. So it was great to see Sean Payton try that move against Atlanta only to negate a blocked field goal that would have prevented the Falcons from winning. After getting a second shot, Matt Bryant nailed the kick and the Falcons stole a game in New Orleans. Calling that timeout is like when you were a little kid and you shook hands on something but then yelled “it doesn’t count because I had my fingers crossed behind my back!!” And how long can Garrett Hartley’s NFC Championship heroics buy him in New Orleans? The Saints won in week 1 despite his missed kicks and he missed another short kick in overtime this week. If I were Hartley, I’d start boxing up the house, just in case.

- Does anyone know that baseball season is still going on? Oh, and NBA training camps are about to start. No one seems to notice or care about either sport when it’s football season. We wasted more time this week hearing about Braylon Edwards than about the pennant races. Lost in all the news this week was an incredible feat by Ichiro in Seattle – his 10^th 200-hit season. When you realize that he played his first 7 professional seasons in Japan, the streak is even more impressive. Had he played those years in the US, he might have a legit shot at Pete Rose’s all-time hit list. His ability at the plate is almost as impressive as George Clooney’s girlfriend in a bikini.

- Is there a better advertising campaign out there than the E*Trade baby? The latest commercial has him in time-out because riding the dog like a horse is frowned up – awesome. Those commercials are as good as the Redskins yellow mustard pants, and definitely better than those nasty neon orange jerseys in Miami.

HATE

- Can we finally put to rest any thoughts that Notre Dame is a legit college football team? It is blatantly obvious that the Irish are not on the level with any of the mid-level teams in the country, so why do teams get a boost in the rankings for beating them? Stanford is the latest team to dismiss the Irish with ease and were rewarded with a jump from #16 to the top 10. How does that math work? You do what you’re supposed to do – beat a vastly inferior team - and jump over other teams that did what they were supposed to do (aka Wisconsin)? It’s like the receivers that dance after a 7 yard catch – that’s your job, so stop celebrating what you’re supposed to do. That has less logic than Lindsay Lohan remaining out of prison.

- After watching Ryan Mallett flush his Heisman hopes, and Arkansas’s conference title hopes down the toilet on Saturday afternoon, two thoughts came to mind: (1) It’s been confirmed – NEVER trust a guy with a chin-strap beard, and (2) Mallett might be the next Ryan Leaf. He is a big, strong-armed guy who can throw it all over the field. Unfortunately, he is not clutch, and not very bright. If he gets angry with the media and develops an addiction to oxycontin, he could actually become Ryan Leaf. Beware Buffalo Bills – Jake Locker might not be the answer, but Mallett doesn’t look to be the solution either.

- Carmelo Anthony as the center piece of the “new” Nets under the Russian billionaire? There is a 4-team trade that may happen that would send Anthony to the Nets, assuming the Nuggets don’t get cold feet and the Nets can sign Anthony to a long-term contract. It would definitely be a shot across the bow of their neighbor Knicks if the Nets can land Anthony as their centerpiece when they move into Brooklyn in two years. If the Nets can come up with a new color scheme, new uniforms and a new name, they could actually have a shot to become the most popular team in the New York metro area. Getting Anthony would also go a long way towards improving upon their 12 wins last season.

Degenerate Friday - Week 3

Computer issues saved you from losing money with my 8-8 picks last week, so you’re welcome for that. Now we’re on to the next week, where teams find themselves on the verge of losing their seasons before they hit the one quarter mark of the season. Are we ready to make conclusions about teams? Probably not. Remember last year when Josh McDaniels and the Broncos started 6-0 before the bottom fell out? So let’s not get too ahead of ourselves after just a few weeks and then be surprised when the truth comes out. Kind of like the categories for the games this week….celebrity surprises during the past couple weeks.

Standard disclosures apply: Picks are for recreational purposes only, spreads from the NY Post, and home teams in CAPS.

The Paris Hilton Tier

Paris was rejected from Japan this week. Not a major surprise, but then again, it was surprising that she was wearing clothes and wasn’t on a boat.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Bills

What happened to that dynamic CJ Spiller guy who was wearing a Bills jersey in the preseason? The Bills offense has been absolutely horrendous, so while this is a ton of points to lay, it may only take three scores by the Patriots to cover. So when Chan Gailey says that he doesn’t see much difference between Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick, is that an insult to both of them?

Raiders (+4) over CARDINALS

I have been playing the Raiders all season and they’ve yet to pay off. Is this the week with Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback? Considering he’s up against the worst quarterback in the league outside of Buffalo in Derek Anderson, I think it is. Is Larry Fitzgerald going to snap after yet another pass sails 5 yards over his head?

SEAHAWKS (+5.5) over Chargers

Chargers laid the lumber last week to Jacksonville and their offense seemed to find the rhythm they couldn’t find in the rain in Kansas City in week 1. So laying 5.5 against a Seattle team that lost to Denver last week shouldn’t be a problem, right? Wrong. Just like Paris Hilton, when the light is shined on them at the right angle (on the road in Seattle), the Chargers have some significant flaws and will be missing Ryan Matthews who has a banged up ankle.

Colts (-5.5) over BRONCOS

Peyton Manning will let you know when it’s safe to bet against the Colts, and after last week’s dismantling of his little brother, the Colts look ready to roll. Add to that the emotional week the Broncos have just had with the death of one of their wide receivers, and Denver could not have found a worse opponent.

The Demi Moore Tier

Ashton Kutcher was busted for cheating on Moore with an extremely average looking girl. Are we surprised that Kutcher is an idiot? He made his career by acting like an idiot on That 70’s Show, acting like an idiot on Punk’d, and being a cougar-hunting idiot. Maybe he was just never acting….

Lions (+11) over VIKINGS

Let me get this straight. The Lions have lost on a terrible call to the Bears and by 3 to the Eagles, and they’re suddenly giving double digits to an 0-2 team that has scored 19 TOTAL points in two weeks? There is a reason the casinos are so big in Vegas, but this is not one of them. The Old Gunslinger hasn’t found a WR he can trust and the difference of philosophy between him and Coach Childress continues to widen.

RAVENS (-10.5) over Browns

Despite the Ravens offensive woes to start the season, the best medicine is playing against the woeful Browns. The Ravens have gone up against the tough Jets defense and the underrated Bengals defense, so their struggles have been blown out of proportion. And I didn’t even have to mention that Seneca Wallace is starting again for the Browns.

Bengals (-3) over PANTHERS

Welcome to the NFL, Jimmy Clausen by taking on a Bengals defense that ate pre-season darling Joe Flacco’s lunch last week. Clausen struggling in his debut is less surprising than J-Woww posing in Playboy. Doesn’t it seem like Hugh is overpaying for her pictures? Would it really take more than a bottle of booze and a couple of compliments whispered in her ear?

Eagles (-3) over JAGUARS

Michael Vick is the Boston Cream donut in the Eagles locker room and Andy Reid can’t get enough. He’s so in love with his Boston Cream that he has smashed the chocolate sprinkles donut that he’s been telling everyone he loves for the past 6 months. And that came after he dumped his first love – the Long John donut because it kept making him choke. Maybe Reid just likes donuts.

Redskins (-3.5) over RAMS

So do we look at the Redskins team that build a 17 point lead against the dangerous Texans or do we look at the Redskins team that blew a 17 point lead against the dangerous Texans? I don’t know, nor do I care. What I do care about is that a spread of barely over a field goal against one of the worst teams in the league should be covered.

The Randy Quaid Tier

Did you see the story where Randy and his wife were arrested for squatting in a house they used to own? Uncle Eddie has definitely fallen on some tough times and he sure looks like it’s been a long, strange journey.

CHIEFS (+2.5) over 49ers

The 49ers are coming off a game in which they played very well against the Saints, but playing in Kansas City is a different story. While Matt Cassel has played awful, the Chiefs will need to rely on their special teams and running game to generate points.

Titans (+3) over GIANTS

Lost in all the attention that the Jets have generated the past few weeks is that the Giants are not very good. They were able to beat a terrible Panthers team despite turning the ball over more times than Lindsay Lohan returns to rehab. Then they got splattered by the Colts. The Titans crushed the Raiders and then were shut down by what has thus far been the best defense in the league, the Steelers. Look for Chris Johnson to get back much closer to his 2500 yard pace.

Steelers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

It doesn’t matter who the Steelers start at quarterback as long as their defense remains as good as they have been. The Josh Freeman leading the young Tampa squad is a nice story, but beating Carolina and Cleveland hardly gives them a boost in the BCS standings.

Jets (+2) over DOLPHINS

This might be the toughest game of the week to pick. The Jets are kind of like Randy Quaid, highly entertaining, but you have to wonder if there are some serious problems behind the outward shell. The Dolphins are 2-0 and can build themselves a nice little lead in the division with a win over the Jets, but they have feasted on a poor Bills offense and a struggling Vikings offense.

The Kelly McGillis Tier

This was the shocker of the week. Kelly was everyone’s favorite military flight instructor in the 80’s blockbuster, Top Gun, and she got married this week…to a woman. I mean, it really kind of changes all the news you have heard recently about “don’t ask, don’t tell.”

SAINTS (-6) over Falcons

Even without Reggie Bush, the Saints offense has a ton of weapons. The Falcons hammered the Cardinals last week and they are at home, but I think the Saints will have recovered from their trip out west in time.

TEXANS (-3) over Cowboys

I really can’t imagine the Cowboys starting the year 0-3. Then again, I never imagined Kelly McGillis playing for the other team – not that there’s anything wrong with that. The Texans have won their first two games, first with a dominant running game and then with a dominant passing game. Look for them to light up the Cowboys in Houston.

Packers (-3) over BEARS

The Bears have proven to be legit thus far, and winning at Dallas last week was impressive. Yet it’s starting to be apparent that the Cowboys may not be as good as we expected, so it does come with a grain of salt. And the Bears should have lost in week 1 to Detroit. If the Packers can generate any kind of running game to keep the Bears defense honest, expect Green Bay to blow them out. Will Ted Thompson finally make a trade for a running back? Here’s a great read about his failed attempts to get Randy Moss a few years back, which makes you think that TT may not be able to trade for Marshawn Lynch like he should.

NFL Power Rankings - Week 1

Riding the subway in New York is brutal in the summer because if the air underground isn’t disgusting and stale to begin with, the heat adds an extra layer of stank to it. On top of that, you add the overcrowded nature of rush hour and sprinkle in a solid mix of homeless people and you have a pretty nasty cocktail. The other day I’m minding my own business on my way home, listening to my iPod when I catch this mangy dude stumbling through the train and I assume he’s begging for change. I typically enjoy hearing some of the more creative signs and requests from the panhandlers, like outside of dinner last night when a guy said he needed 50 cents to fix the rotary engine on his helicopter. That’s a good effort. The guy on the subway wasn’t actually begging, but instead he was hoping to sell something: Batteries. He’s walking through the train with an open package of batteries yelling “Double-A’s, triple-A’s, C’s & D’s – I got your batteries right here - $1 for a battery.” Who needs batteries while they’re on the subway? Not to mention they likely are used/dead batteries that he’s selling. Everyone on the train is using an iPod, iPhone, blackberry, kindle or reading the paper. None of those activities require Duracells.

So how does this relate to the NFL Power Rankings after the opening weekend? It probably doesn’t, but it made me think that while I don’t want to overreact to week 1 results, I have to stay with the times and not continue to proclaim that the teams at the top will remain at the top. It also reminded me of the days back when people used to use those big clunky Discman to play CD’s while working out and you had to be careful not to make the CD skip constantly. Well the Discman was released in 1984, so this week’s rankings are broken out by some of the top movies from that year.

The Terminator

1 – New Orleans

The Saints are the kings until someone knocks them off. They proved that they could win a game on defense by handling the Vikings when their offense wasn’t clicking. They have a very tough road test on Monday night to maintain the top spot.

2 – New England

The Patriots were the cold, destroying terminators in week 1, laying the smack down on the Bengals. They scored the most points in the league and despite the final score, their young defense shut down the Bengals early. Tom Brady had a helluva ride last week, getting in a significant car accident but escaping injury, signing a huge contract extension, lighting up the Bengals and all the while getting to come home to Gisele every night. I’d say that’s winning at life.

3 – Green Bay

Losing Ryan Grant is a significant blow for the Packers, and if GM Ted Thompson wasn’t so opposed to free agency or trades, they may have been able to add someone like Laurence Maroney (only cost the Broncos a 4^th rounder), Marshawn Lynch, or Willie Parker. Instead they signed someone off a practice squad. If the running game struggles, you will see a return of the “Ted Thompson Ruined My Christmas” t-shirts.

4 – Baltimore

Ray Lewis remains the baddest terminator in the league. That hit he laid on Dustin Keller was textbook and I’m pretty sure if he hit me like that, I would be dead. Not in the figurative sense – they would have to peel me off the turf and just take me right to the cemetery. The Ravens difficult schedule continues with another road game, this time at Cincinnatti where Palmer, Ochocinco and Owens will test their banged up secondary more than Mark Sanchez did.

5 – Pittsburgh

Don’t look now, but if Troy Palomalu stays healthy, the Steelers defense could return to its dominant form and it won’t matter who lines up under center.

Ghost Busters

6 – Houston

The Texans were finally able to rid themselves of their own personal Slimer – the ghost of the Indianapolis Colts. They also could have quoted Bill Murray’s Dr. Venkman character: “We came. We saw. We kicked it’s @ss!!” Unfortunately all a week 1 win does is secure they won’t have a winless season. The Texans haven’t had problems early in the season as much as they have had problems when they really have to win. But for now, they have a dominant running game, a passing game that wasn’t needed, and an aggressive defense. That’s enough for a top 6 position to me.

7 – Indianapolis

On the other end of the spectrum are the Colts. With their defense suddenly looking like more of a liability than planned and Bob Sanders likely out for the year, there are some real concerns in Indy. I’m not sure a visit from the underachieving but talented Giants running game is the cure.

The Natural

8 – Tennessee

Chris Johnson is a natural when it comes to running the football. I saw on halftime of the Monday night game that they clocked him at 22 mph during his 76 yard touchdown on Sunday. Like Robert Redford knocked the cover off the ball, Johnson can run the cleats off his shoes.

Romancing the Stone

9 – Minnesota

Brett Favre and Brad Childress are about as annoying as Michael Douglas and Kathleen Turner. In reality, since this is their second act together, maybe they should be connected to the sequel, The Jewel of the Nile, but that movie came out in 1985. While losing to the Saints isn’t a disgrace, the lack of passion, energy and life from Old Man Favre is a definite concern.

10 – New York Giants

There’s just something about Big Blue that I can’t get behind this year. They are about as exciting as a stone. Good enough to beat the bad teams (like Carolina) but will struggle against better competition (like Indy this week).

Beverly Hills Cop

11 – New York Jets

This whole tier of teams fits into the Eddie Murphy quote: “You arresting me for getting thrown out a window?” And while the media gnashes its teeth about the way the team treated Ines Sainz, the team should be spending more time trying to figure out how wonderboy Mark Sanchez went from looking as good as Ms. Sainz to looking like George Lopez during the off-season.

12 – Dallas

The Cowboys offense struggled mightily despite the presence of all those weapons. Is that a credit to Washington’s defense? Possibly. But more likely, the Cowboys have to put it all together, shore up their offensive line play and only then can they even imagine playing a home game in the Super Bowl.

13 – San Diego

While not part of the movie, it seems like San Diego used another Eddie Murphy line from his stand up routine: “I’ll take the zero” (look up the routine about having a boner in class and getting called upon to come to the front of the class). The Chargers took the zero in the rain against a young and feisty Chiefs team.

14 – Atlanta

Maybe the Falcons aren’t ready for prime time after all. I do believe that the Steelers defense can be an elite unit, but to only manage field goals is unacceptable from an offense with Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. So I am arresting them for falling out the window.

15 – Cincinnati

The Bengals got thrown out the window by the Patriots and they have the foot prints on their rear ends to prove it. They better buckle down at home against the Ravens or the season could disintegrate quickly.

Karate Kid

16 – Washington

I’m not sure how long the Redskins will stay in the upper half of the league, but after beating the Cowboys, they’ve earned this spot. They are the upstart who beat the fancy dressed, fancy trained rich kids with a controlled and disciplined game.

17 – Seattle

The Seahawks bought into Pete Carroll and Cheerleader Carroll used “the Crane” to kick the snot out of the 49ers in week one. I fear that his act grows thin quickly, but for now, they deserve this ranking, probably 10 spots higher than I would have had them before the season started.

Gremlins

18 – Philadelphia

Andy Reid had his nice fuzzy little mogwai in Kevin Kolb, but unfortunately he exposed him to water (aka the Packers defense) and it spawned a gremlin of a quarterback controversy. Michael Vick looked back to his old speed against Green Bay and after he leads the Eagles to a victory over the Lions, the team is going to have a hard time stomaching a move back to Kolb. Kolb looked timid, weak-armed and scared before Clay Matthews knocked him out of the game.

19 – Arizona

Kurt Warner’s retirement spawned a whole mess of gremlins in the desert, first with Matt Leinart and now with Derek Anderson. While Anderson’s numbers looked respectable at the end of the game, he still has accuracy problems and the Cards barely held off the lowly Rams. This may be the highest the Cards get ranked all season.

Sixteen Candles

20 – Kansas City

The Chiefs pulled off a great upset against the Chargers riding the youth movement with rookies Dexter McCluster, Tony Moeaki and young running back Jamaal Charles. They came of age a little in the Monday night game, so I guess that makes Matt Cassell equal to Molly Ringwald?

Splash

21 – San Francisco

Not only did the 49ers make a terrible splash with their pathetic performance at Seattle, they also have a lot in common with Darryl Hannah. Both were huge in the 80’s and both are liked for some strange reason I can’t understand. No matter how intense Coach Singletary stares at his players, the 49ers cannot be successful with the poor communication between their offensive coordinator and the quarterback that plagued them in week 1.

Indiana Jones & The Temple of Doom

22 – Miami

The Dolphins get credit for winning, but there is doom ahead because their offense was stagnant against a poor Bills defense. That huge stone that is chasing Indiana Jones – that’s the Patriots about to run down the Dolphins.

23 – Jacksonville

This is another team that won, but in unconvincing fashion against an inferior opponent.

24 – Carolina

Boy am I glad that Carolina got rid of that turnover machine in Jake Delhomme and got a conservative game manager like Matt Moore because he won’t turn the ball over……wait, nevermind. Moore basically melted in the bad weather and Giants pressure like the bad guy’s faces at the end of Indiana Jones.

25 – Oakland

Oakland reminds me of the scene in the movie where the bad guy stops Indiana Jones in the market and starts to wave his big sword all over the place in a huge display of power. Indy calmly pulls out his pistol and shoots the guy. Well the Raiders had me convinced with their big sword trade of Jason Campbell and maturing wide receivers. The Titans pulled out the pistol in week 1.

26 – Detroit

No need to rehash it – the Lions were robbed by a terrible rule. And that’s why they are ranked higher than the Bears despite losing to them. Even though they lost Mattew Stafford and will likely plummet after this week, they get a bump for the effort in week 1.

Nightmare on Elm Street

27 – Chicago

Yes, Jay Cutler threw for a lot of yards, but he’s still a turnover machine and will be a nightmare for Chicago’s playoff chances.

28 – Denver

What was more overhyped? Tim Tebow’s debut or the ridiculous Bachelor spin-off, Bachelor Pad? Tebow was a non-factor and Bachelor Pad was just a pairing up of sluts with meatheats.

29 – Tampa Bay

They are the second team in this tier that won last week, but the team they beat was barely better than Notre Dame. Raheem Morris has some potential on this team, but Bucs fans wish they could just sleep away the season.

30 – St. Louis

The Rams showed a considerable amount of spunk against the Cardinals and Sam Bradford looks like he has the skills to be a franchise QB. Unfortunately they will not win many games if they have to throw it 55 times a game and only give Steven Jackson 22 carries.

31 – Cleveland

Well that didn’t last long. Did we really expect the Jake Delhomme experiment to work with the Browns? Do you really expect Jennifer Lopez to be anything other than a monster pain in the ass as a judge on American Idol? Do you really expect Jenn Brown to be famous for her sideline reporting or her looks?

32 – Buffalo

If Packers GM Ted Thompson wasn’t so opposed to trading, the smart move would be to tell Buffalo RB Marshawn Lynch to bring a few extra bags with him to Green Bay this weekend. Instead Lynch will have to continue to suffer through a rough season while his former Cal teammate quarterbacks a contender without much of a running game.

Weekend Hangover - Love/Hate

LOVE

- Congrats to Michigan for winning a huge game this weekend which should launch them……INTO the rankings? Seriously, we’re supposed to be impressed by a victory against a team that was barely .500 last year and lost their starting quarterback for much of the game? I don’t buy it. Yes, Denard Robinson has put up monster stats the first two games…against Connecticut and Notre Dame. Call me when he does something against a real team.

- I love the return of football season, but let’s not overreact too much too early in the season. The sky is not falling in Indianapolis, Arian Foster will not rush for 3,000 yards this season and the Seahawks will not go undefeated.

- So much for Boise State’s chances of making the BCS Championship. When you’re only marquee win is against a Virginia Tech team that then loses to James Madison (who knew they even fielded a football team?), you can forget playing for a national championship. That would be like Jessica Alba trying to claim she should get a lifetime achievement for acting award with her highlight being Into The Blue.

- Everyone knows I hate everything Philly. Watching the Packers beat the Eagles brings me an inordinate amount of joy. And while it is a big road win to start the season in Green Bay, there are definitely some major concerns, particularly on defense. Dom Capers defense seems to be completely boom or bust. They blitz and take chances and if they don’t get a sack or an interception, they give up a ton of wide open pass plays and gashing runs. Perhaps Andy Reid’s sugar rush wore out by the end of the game, but he made some really questionable decisions down the stretch. Using his timeouts with more than 5 minutes remaining left the Eagles without a way to stop the clock after the 2 minute warning. And then on the critical 4^th and 1 play, with the Packers struggling to keep up with Michael Vick, Reid chose to take the fastest guy on the field and run him straight ahead like a fullback rather than stretch the field and let him use his speed. At least now we’ll get to watch the Eagles idiot fans whine about a quarterback controversy all season.

HATE

- Can the media – particularly BSPN – finally stop trying to sell us the hype on Miami quarterback JaCorey Harris? Much like the success of Glee, I just don’t understand the fascination with a show about the glee club or the fascination with a quarterback who can’t throw. He is a great athlete but a terrible quarterback. He was exposed against Wisconsin in the bowl game last season, so what made anyone think he would excel against an Ohio State team that was better than the Badgers and returned most of their starters? Harris threw 4 interceptions against the Buckeyes, ensuring an easy win for Ohio State. Looks like a reincarnation of Isiah “Juice” Williams at Illinois. Who? Exactly – another overhyped nobody quarterback.

While BSPN was hyping this as “Monster Saturday” they would have been more accurate to call it “Exposing the State of Florida” weekend – Miami and Florida State got hammered in so-called marquee games and the Florida Gators continued to show they have a long way to go to get past the ghost of Tim Tebow.

- Went to the US Open on Saturday with tickets to the women’s final. It’s a great atmosphere and we got there early and had drinks out in the gallery watching the end of the Roger Federer match on the multiple big screens available. Then we settled into our seats and watched Kim Clijsters absolutely destroy her Russian opponent, 6-2 6-1 in exactly one hour. As if I wasn’t disappointed enough that neither Venus Williams nor Caroline Wozniacki were in the finals, but then the match was a complete blow out. Imagine how annoyed I would have been if I actually had to pay for the tickets.

- The Wisconsin Badgers have enough talent to win the Big Ten this year, but they seem to be plagued with the same thing that has been a staple of too many Bret Bielema teams – they are undisciplined. They are careless with the football and make stupid plays which allow inferior opponents to stay in the game. Opening weekend against UNLV they gave up more points than yards in the first half (14 points and 12 yards), and this week against a pathetic San Jose State team, the continued to turn the ball over with a chance to put the game away before halftime. The Badgers have an awesome trio of tailbacks, a dynamic tight end, and an emerging receiving corps, yet if they play this way against a respectable opponent, they will get blown out.

- Even if the call at the end of the Lions-Bears game was correctly interpreted, it sucks. Calvin Johnson caught the winning touchdown in the final seconds but the ball came loose as he was bouncing up to celebrate. It’s a shame because the Lions played well enough to win even after franchise QB Matt Stafford was injured.

I'm Back! NFL 2010 Preview MegaPost

Well, I guess I’m like Brett Favre and herpes….you just can’t get rid of me. It’s been ages, but with football season about to kick off it’s time to get back at it and posting regularly. This whole blog started last year with a season preview, so it’s only fitting to get back to work with a season preview/prediction column and wrap in a Degenerate Friday Week 1 picks. And while it is easy on the eyes to watch Caroline Wozniacki play in the U.S. Open, it’s football that really gets us fired up. On a side note – I’m hoping Wozniacki makes the finals because I’ll be there Saturday night. Let’s get right to it…..no gimmicks, no categories, just a full break down of how I see the NFL season playing out.

I break down the season slightly different than most people – most analysts go through and pick their Super Bowl teams and then back their way into records for every team. I go through the entire league schedule and pick every game, then totaling up what records the teams will end up having. The good part is that it doesn’t fall prey to preconceived notions and it definitely allows a tough schedule to have an effect on a team’s final record. The down side is that I end up with some surprises that I may not have made otherwise, as you’ll see with this year’s AFC playoff teams. And I still ended up with 2 new playoff teams in each conference, which is close to the typical 5 teams that surprise people.

Breaking it down by division then a playoff prediction, starting in the NFC

NFC East

Dallas (10-6)

The Cowboys have talked themselves into believing they are a Super Bowl favorite despite bringin

g back most of the team that got drubbed by the Vikings in last year’s playoffs. I expect Marion Barber to have a big season – did you know the guy played last year with a hole in his quad muscle? Think about that – a freaking HOLE in his quad!! Now that he’s healthy, he’s a battering ram that will open up the field for Miles Austin to go deep and Dez Bryant to be a monster. Their offense will be as good as any in the league and their attacking defense will be enough to carry them to the division crown.

NY Giants (9-7)

I don’t actually think the Giants are that good. Yet their schedule falls pretty nicely for them and I think they have enough pieces to be in the mix. Nobody likes Eli Manning, but the guy threw for over 4,000 yards last year and obviously has the support of his team. The NFC East is a lot like the Kardashians in that everyone thinks they’re famous and are a big deal, but stop and think about it for a minute. Kim has some incredible assets (like the Cowboys) and the rest of the family is only famous by association. By association, I guess that makes the Giants equal to Courtney, the next best in the family. And now it’s time to get to the ugly family members…..

Philadelphia (7-9)

So the equation that irrational Eagles fans are selling is Andy Reid equals a winning record. Well when you subtract McNabb and Westbrook and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, and add in a first year starter in Kevin Kolb, it changes things considerably. Kolb may turn out to be a very good quarterback, but even Aaron Rodgers struggled in his first year as a starter. I personally think Kolb does not have the dynamic fire needed to be a premiere quarterback in the league, but he does have enough physical skills to ensure the Eagles stay close.

Washington (6-10)

I saw that the Sports Guy picked the Skins as his sleeper team and has them in the playoffs. I’d like to see that just to stick it to the Eagles and their ridiculous fans. McNabb still has gas in the tank and will definitely be motivated, but he has no one to throw the ball to and the Skins are dealing with the pain in the ass that is Albert Haynesworth. New Sheriff Shanahan will eventually lead them to success, but it won’t be this year.

NFC South

New Orleans (11-5)

The Saints offense is still as dangerous as Dan Hampton on an open microphone. (The former Bear Hampton is the one that said the Vikings should hit New Orleans “like Katrina” and that the Cowboys were “brokeback cowboys” in one show – that’s a helluva performance right up there with Mel Gibson) They have a premiere quarterback, premiere coach, attacking defense and adaptable receiving and running threats. That’s enough to be there deep in the playoffs.

Atlanta (11-5)

I thought the Falcons would break out last year and they got bit by the injury bug slowing their quarterback, running back and slot receiver. This year with a healthy Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Harry Douglas, the Falcons look poised to challenge for the division title. The Falcons could be that team to makes the leap to elite and makes a deep run in the playoffs.

Carolina (8-8)

Their biggest improvement was the removal of the Human Turnover Machine, Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. However, Matt Moore will struggle now that teams can scheme to stop him. They also lost Julius Peppers and Steve Smith hasn’t played since breaking his arm. Oh, and don’t forget they have a lame duck coach that will be moving on after the season and despite the running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, this smells like a .500 team.

Tampa Bay (2-14)

The Bucs have some nice pieces in place for future success, but the immediate future looks painful.

NFC West

San Francisco (9-7)

They are the tallest midget. The NFC West is hideous, and the Niners could run away with the division by barely being over .500. They have the defense that is the fiery design of Mike Singletary and offensive weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabree. If Alex Smith can effectively use his VD and Crabs, it will open things up for Gore and a successful season.

Arizona (8-8)

This text from my brother in Phoenix pretty much summed it up in the desert: “So do I really have to get behind Derek Anderson this season? But I guess it’s better than Leinart.” Anderson has a strong arm which could be beneficial to Larry Fitzgerald, but he has problems telling the difference between his receivers and defensive backs. Having 4 cupcake games against Seattle and St. Louis allows them to stay in the hunt, but Cardinal fans should start preparing for the Max Hall era which may start after a 1-4 start and a bye week.

Seattle (4-12)

Pete Carroll was able to get out of Southern Cal before the shit hit the fan, but he managed to jump right int

o another steaming pile when he went north up the coast. He has almost completely turned over the roster which would be a good thing since the Seahawks were bad, but then when you factor in Carroll’s lack of success in past NFL stints and the overall lack of success of college coaches in the pros, it is a pretty scary proposition.

St. Louis (2-14)

Well, it does appear that Sam Bradford has many of the intangibles and that can help someday return the Rams to respectability. Unfortunately that someday is not this year. Strap on that helmet tight, Sam and live to fight another season.

NFC North

Green Bay (11-5)

The Packers have the favorite for league MVP at quarterback have a healthier offensive line to give him more

time to use his considerable arsenal of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones. The secondary will be tested early without Al Harris and Atari Bigby but they get a scheduling break playing poor or less established passing games early in the year – Philly, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Miami. That could allow the Packers to get off to a very fast start and could carry them to the division title and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota (9-7)

The Vikings are dealing with plenty of questions after a very successful previous season. Can

Favre hold up? Who is going to be their receiving threat? Is their defense too old? Will the rest of the team resent the special treatment that Diva Favre has gotten? Does anyone like Coach Childress?

Hard to imagine a team going to the Super Bowl when the quarterback hates the coach and the rest of the team doesn’t like either one of them.

Detroit (5-11)

Like Blake Lively, the Lions are bursting with young assets. With the addition of Suh and VandeBosch on the defensive line, the Lions could slow a few offenses, which will give Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best the opportunity to outscore some teams. While 5-11 doesn’t seem like a big jump, when you’re in Detroit, it’s reason to celebrate.

Chicago (5-11)

Coach on the hot seat? Check. Overrated quarterback with an attitude problem? Check. Arrogant offensive coordinator with only one success in his career? Check. Overpaid for a notoriously lazy defensive lineman? Check. Get the fan base excited about signing a third down back? Check. Sounds like another crappy season in Chicago.

AFC East

New England (11-5)

The Patriots are back to where they prefer, under the radar. And Randy Moss is in a contract year, which means he has the potential for a monster year. After last season’s schedule, this year’s slate looks easier than J-Woww after a couple shots of tequila. As long as Brady can keep his Bieber hair out of his eyes, he’ll have a solid arsenal of receiving weapons. Can the Patriots stop anyone? Maybe not, but they will have the offensive firepower to outscore most teams.

NY Jets (10-6)

The Jets remind me of the Seinfeld episode about “The Race” when George pretends he hasn’t seen Jerry since high school and goes on a rant about the millions he made as an architect. Jerry’s response: “You really built yourself up into something, didn’t you?” And that is extremely applicable to the Jets. They were 9-7 last

year. They brought in a bunch of big name veterans past their prime. They got a break to even get into the playoffs. Is that enough to make them Super Bowl favorites? I don’t think so.

Miami (8-8)

The Dolphins have addressed their biggest need, which was a playmaking wide receiver who could actually, you know, catch. They got Brandon Marshall who when paired with Chad Henne give the Dolphins a very potent offense. Unfortunately they face a deadly stretch of games at GB, Pit, at Cin, at Bal, and Ten. If they go 2-3 during that stretch it would be a heck of a

n accomplishment.

Buffalo (5-11)

The Bills managed to find themselves a dynamic game changer in CJ Spiller, but unfortunately they still have Trent Edwards at QB, a leaky offensive line and a defensive line that can’t slow anyone. Could Spiller be a poor man’s Barry Sanders?

AFC South

Indianapolis (13-3)

Every year you start with Indy at 12 wins and then adjust it up or down a game or two. I ex

pect Peyton to bounce back from his Super Bowl pick-6 and be in F-U mode most of the season. Add to that the embarrassment of weapons he has at his disposal and the Colts will blast through the regular season like Justi

n Timberlake blew through the hottest women in Hollywood before settling on Jessica Biel.

Houston (11-5)

Every year people expect the Texans to break through. Every year they let

everyone down. It’s kind of like sending Lindsay Lohan to rehab – when are we finally going to give up on her putting it all together? Well, I’m giving the Texans one last chance because if they just do the simple things, they have the talent to be successful. They have a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a strong defense to go with a QB who is solid in the regular season. That should be enough with their schedule.

Tennessee (7-9)

I have no clue what to expect from this team. Two years ago they went 13-3. Last year they started 0-8 and got blasted 59-0 by the Patriots. Yet they have one of the fastest RBs in the league in Chris Johnson who expects to get 2,500 yards this season. Vince Young and his “Uncle Rico” motion isn’t pretty, but he has been able t

o lead the team to wins. Yet I don’t see this team keeping up with the elite in their division.

Jacksonville (4-12)

Can’t we just move this team to LA and get it over with? No one in Jacksonville would even notice if they were

gone. They might be the most non-descript team in the league with their only star a running back with a knee extremely close to needing a scope that will knock him out for 2-3 weeks at a minimum.

AFC West

San Diego (11-5)

I expected to have this team fall off considerably this year with a rookie bell cow running back and the loss of Vincent Jackson to a hold out. Yet their schedule is so soft, even Norv Turner can lead this team to double-digit wins.

Oakland (9-7)

The Raiders are a lot better than people think. Despite the crazy Al Davis, they have quietly put together a great offseason with the drafting of a game changing linebacker and the trade for a serviceable quarterback in Jas

on Campbell. Campbell relied heavily on his TE, Chris Cooley in Washington, which bodes well for the stats of Zach Miller this season. Look for the Raiders to surprise some people this year and be in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of the year.

Kansas City (8-8)

Thomas Jones will be key to keeping Jamaal Charles fresh, yet the Chiefs still have too many holes defensively to get over the .500 hump.

Denver (6-10)

It now seems pretty obvious that the 6-0 start last year was the aberration. Josh McDaniels put himself in the cross-hairs with his love affair with Tim Tebow, but that is dangerous considering Timmy T is not ready to be the starter. Without Brandon Marshall and with a banged up Knowshon Moreno, the offense will struggle and their defense wasn’t good to begin with.

AFC North

Cincinnati (11-5)

The Bengals boast an attacking defense and a powerful running game. And with the addition of TO, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley, Carson Palmer has run out of excuses. It’s time for his resurgence like recent pictures of Britney Spears in a bikini and utilize his assets. Despite wearing down at the end of last season, I expect the Bengals to get it done.

Pittsburgh (11-5)

This may have been my biggest surprise. I have them starting 1-3 with Dennis Dixon as the starter but the schedule for the Steelers provides a softer landing for Big Ben than landing on the chest of Salma Hayek. With a recommitment to the run, the Steelers have the ability to slug it out with anyone.

Baltimore (10-6)

I was expecting to have the Ravens in the mix for a Super Bowl birth. Unfortunately, while they improved their offensive weapons with the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth and TJ Houshmandzadeh, their defensive secondary is a mess with the injuries to Ed Reed and Dominique Foxworthy. That does not bode well to compete with the receiving threats in Cincy and games at Atlanta, at Houston and at New England.

AFC Playoff Teams: (1) Colts, (2) Patriots, (3) Chargers, (4) Bengals, (WC) Texans, (WC) Steelers

NFC Playoff Teams: (1) Packers, (2) Saints, (3) Cowboys, (4) 49ers, (WC) Falcons, (WC) Vikings

hAFC Championship: Colts over Patriots

NFC Championship: Packers over Saints

SUPER BOWL CHAMPION: Green Bay Packers over Colts

Maybe I’m just a homer, but I think all the parts are there for Aaron Rodgers to establish his own legacy in Green Bay. My head says the Colts are the pick to beat the Packers, but I can’t put the Packers that close and not have them pull it off.

QUICK HITS for DEGENERATE FRIDAY – Week 1

Thursday pick: Saints (-5) over Vikings

Falcons (-2) over STEELERS – the Matt Ryan rebound begins

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS – Spiller isn’t enough

Lions (+6.5) over BEARS – Misery begins in the Windy City

GIANTS (-6.5) over Panthers – G-men get revenge on Carolina for ruining the closing of old stadium.

PATRIOTS (-4.5) over Bengals – Brady celebrates new contract with big opener

Browns (+3) over BUCCANEERS – who cares?

JAGUARS (-2.5) over Broncos – barely more interesting than the previous suck-fest

Colts (-2) over TEXANS – Texans not quite ready for prime time

Raiders (+6) over TITANS – Raiders may not win but that spread is too big for the resurgent Raiders

Packers (-3) over EAGLES – easiest game to pick this week

49ers (-3) over SEAHAWKS – welcome to the big leagues Coach Carroll

Cardinals (-4) over RAMS – someone has to win this game

Cowboys (-3.5) over REDSKINS – McNabb gets a rude welcome in DC

JETS (-2.5) over Ravens – break in the new stadium in style

CHIEFS (+4) over Chargers – San Diego never starts fast